Zero2Cool
a year ago
I've read a lot about how Jets have all the leverage. Rodgers has all the leverage. Packers have all the leverage. Okay, let's settle this! (🤣, nothing being settled here) 

Rodgers Leverage
Rodgers really has no leverage other than the threat of retiring or showing up to training camp. People act like showing up to camp is some major thing that's gonna force the Packers hand. Pretty sure the franchise can send a player home if they become a distraction. Sure, the media will be around, but if you can't handle the extra media, then maybe you should retire. 

As for Packers or Jets. Neither one of them has all the leverage. In negotiations, when one side has all the leverage, a deal USUALLY gets done for that very reason. One side knows it's bent over and takes what it can get and moves on.

Packers Leverage
The Packers aren't owed to pay Rodgers his bonus until week one of the season, so they really have no immediate urgency on the cash front. If the Packers trade Rodgers, they take on an extra ~$9 million cap hit. Meaning, Rodgers right now is like $31 million cap hit, and once traded he'll be $40 million cap hit. The Packers believe they have their future QB.  Some have said Mark Murphy's comments cost the Packers some leverage and maybe they're right and maybe that's why he's now "sworn to secrecy" on the subject?

Jets Leverage
The Jets likely want Aaron Rodgers in their building sooner than later. My guess is if they can get him officially before minicamp, they'll be just fine. Rodgers would probably be OK missing everything up to training camp (he did win back to back MVP's while missing chunks of the off-season). Jets have a pretty decent roster minus QB and there really aren't many other QB's out there and the Jets have shot their wad all over everyone's face about wanting Rodgers. 


Something I've pondered out loud. There was a lot of chatter that Rodgers was going to retire and then it was said no one walks from $60 million (ahh, Dave Chappelle anyone?). We all noticed Rodgers embracing Cobb out of the tunnel during that final game, right? What if the Packers got the same sense of retirement and granted Jets permission to keep him in playing so they could get compensation and maybe some cash (not cap) relief? I know, I know, put my tin foil hat back on the ground! haha



What says you? Where am I wrong? Where am I right? What are your thoughts?
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beast
a year ago
Whom are you saying has the leverage?

I agree with the idea that everyone when nuts with talking about leverage and going to the extremes.


Where I feel like as far as leverage goes they're tied together, as it takes two to tango, and there are only two on the dance floor... QBs need an elite QB, no other elite QB is currently available, Packers need to get rid of elite QB contract... they need each other and they're both screwed if they don't work together.

I think the Packers are a bit more screwed if still holding Rodgers contract, but they can always do a last minute trade to another team for a low ball offer just to get rid of the contract.


But mostly I think it's more about deadlines.

What is the Jets deadline for the trade to happen? Whenever they need Rodgers in the building working with others, so mini camp or training camp.

What is the Packers deadline? Well, if they want draft picks for the 2023 draft, then the draft is their deadline.

So I think the Jets have slightly more leverage because the Packers deadline is sooner, but again, it takes two to tango, they're in this together, unless either can find another team to tango with.
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dhazer
a year ago
I believe all the leverage belongs to the Packers. The Packers have restructured contracts to give them plenty of capspace to eat Rodgers $60 million hit if they have to. As was stated numerous times that the sports writers refuse to look at is that right now it is cheaper for the Packers to have Rodgers under contract than not. As Kevin said above his cap hit is $31 million right now and if he is traded we have a cap hit of $40 million so it costs us $9 million to get rid of him. Also the bonus doesn't have to be paid till week one of the season so whats the rush? It would be nice to get the Jets picks this year but we won't die without them, and if we wait till June 1st than we get to split the bonus cap hit into the following 2 years which would free up around $23 million this year. And if we wait we demand 2 1sts than seeing we won't receive any compensation this year. And honestly do you think the Jets will be any better? Has anyone looked at their schedule they have both Super Bowl teams plus the AFC East teams, also included are Giants Cowboys, Redskins and Chargers and Raiders. I don't see them making it to 500 so the picks should be pretty good.


Now Rodgers leverage is simple he has none against the Packers. He retires or he tries to come to the team and the Packers send him home like the Raiders with Carr. We all know he will not retire and it's not even the money it's the fact he would be the opening act for Tom Brady at the HOF ceremony.


The Jets have no leverage at all either as they have gone all in already by sending everyone they could fit on the plane to go and kiss Rodgers ass. They have signed guys to make him happy and they got their fanbase all riled up about Rodgers. They back away from the trade and the fanbase will go crazy and they run with Zack Wilson and waste another year of rookie contracts.

So like I said I see the Packers holding all the cards and the Jets are in a no win situation. After the Moore trade I think the Packers get a 1st and 2nd  and we all move on.
Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)
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beast
a year ago

I believe all the leverage belongs to the Packers. The Packers have restructured contracts to give them plenty of capspace to eat Rodgers $60 million hit if they have to. As was stated numerous times that the sports writers refuse to look at is that right now it is cheaper for the Packers to have Rodgers under contract than not. As Kevin said above his cap hit is $31 million right now and if he is traded we have a cap hit of $40 million so it costs us $9 million to get rid of him. Also the bonus doesn't have to be paid till week one of the season so whats the rush? It would be nice to get the Jets picks this year but we won't die without them, and if we wait till June 1st than we get to split the bonus cap hit into the following 2 years which would free up around $23 million this year. And if we wait we demand 2 1sts than seeing we won't receive any compensation this year. And honestly do you think the Jets will be any better? Has anyone looked at their schedule they have both Super Bowl teams plus the AFC East teams, also included are Giants Cowboys, Redskins and Chargers and Raiders. I don't see them making it to 500 so the picks should be pretty good.


Now Rodgers leverage is simple he has none against the Packers. He retires or he tries to come to the team and the Packers send him home like the Raiders with Carr. We all know he will not retire and it's not even the money it's the fact he would be the opening act for Tom Brady at the HOF ceremony.


The Jets have no leverage at all either as they have gone all in already by sending everyone they could fit on the plane to go and kiss Rodgers ass. They have signed guys to make him happy and they got their fanbase all riled up about Rodgers. They back away from the trade and the fanbase will go crazy and they run with Zack Wilson and waste another year of rookie contracts.

So like I said I see the Packers holding all the cards and the Jets are in a no win situation. After the Moore trade I think the Packers get a 1st and 2nd  and we all move on.

Originally Posted by: dhazer 

The June 1st thing is stupid and pointless... people keep talking about freeing up money this year, but why free up the money this year when they aren't going to spend it this year? Packers are clearly just saving money for the future right now.

And fans being upset does not give anyone leverage as teams can ignore fans, see Commanders fans being pissed for a decade gives no leverage in getting Dan Synder out of there...

This is basically yin and yang.

If Jets want Rodgers, they have to work with the Packers, and if the Packers want the most for Rodgers, it seems like they're going to have to work with the Jets.

Neither has more leverage as they're both stuck in non-ideal spots without the other.
 
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Zero2Cool
a year ago
If we examine the financial side of things. It behooves the Packers to trade Rodgers after June 1st.

Cut Pre-June 1st → $99,778,570 → ($68,155,000)
Cut Post-June 1st → $75,298,570 → ($43,675,000)
Trade Pre-June 1st → $40,313,570 → ($8,690,000)
Trade Post-June 1st → $15,833,570 → $15,790,000

Regarding salary cap, that's about $23 million swing in favor of the Packers by waiting until June 1st to trade Rodgers.
 
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dhazer
a year ago

If we examine the financial side of things. It behooves the Packers to trade Rodgers after June 1st.

Cut Pre-June 1st → $99,778,570 → ($68,155,000)
Cut Post-June 1st → $75,298,570 → ($43,675,000)
Trade Pre-June 1st → $40,313,570 → ($8,690,000)
Trade Post-June 1st → $15,833,570 → $15,790,000

Regarding salary cap, that's about $23 million swing in favor of the Packers by waiting until June 1st to trade Rodgers.
 

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Good layout to exactly what I said up there with freeing up $23 million this year 😉
Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)
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Zero2Cool
a year ago

Good layout to exactly what I said up there with freeing up $23 million this year ;)

Originally Posted by: dhazer 



No, not really, because you have some erroneous information in your spiel. I went with cold hard facts baby!!! You also blended cash and cap hit as one, when they are in fact different. 😉
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beast
a year ago
Is there any reason to kick the cap space to this year, if we're not planning on using any of it this year?

​​​​​​
​​​​​​THe way we're currently spending in FA, we're just going to kick it back to next year anyways...
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Zero2Cool
a year ago

Is there any reason to kick the cap space to this year, if we're not planning on using any of it this year?
​​​​​​
​​​​​​THe way we're currently spending in FA, we're just going to kick it back to next year anyways...

Originally Posted by: beast 



If you're talking about Aaron Rodgers cap space, it's not going to be kicked back regardless of post or pre June 1.  And to answer your question, because the team can use the space this year for extensions on expiring contracts like Rashan Gary, AJ Dillon, Yosh Nijman or maybe they use the 2024 cap space to fill some holes via free agency?

Maybe my brain is fried and I'm not comprehending things. So, I'm gonna post this here and revisit tomorrow. But this is my thinking/understanding -- trading after June 1st is huge win for Packers salary cap.

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beast
a year ago

And to answer your question, because the team can use the space this year for extensions on expiring contracts like Rashan Gary, AJ Dillon, Yosh Nijman or maybe they use the 2024 cap space to fill some holes via free agency?

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 

Your actually using more 2024 cap space if you trade him after June 1st, so 2024 free agents would be a bad reason to wait to June 1st.

As far as extensions, they usually take up the least amount of cap space in their first year as the signing bonus is usually their 1st year pay, but the signing bonus gets spread over multiple years of the contract.


So they most likely can give those extensions either way.
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