Nonstopdrivel
12 years ago

The teams that are screwed in overtime are the teams that buckle under pressure.

Originally Posted by: porky88 


The problem with this argument is that it is fuzzy and nebulous. As a benchmark for evaluating the fairness of the overtime system, it suffers from a lack of falsifiability, which is the hallmark of any scientific hypothesis. What is your definition of a team that buckles under pressure? All one has to do is define that term as a team that happens not to be able to prevent an offense from "driving 50 yards to setup a 47-yard field goal" in an overtime situation and voilá, you win the argument by default. For that reason, it is about as useful as ranking quarterbacks by their "intangibles." It can be whatever you want it to be.

It seems to me that most of the people making the argument for a sudden-death system in football have never taken a basic statistics course. Statistically speaking, the advantage that accrues to the team winning the coinflip is huge and the correlations are undeniable. The stubborn clinging to a status quo that was chosen purely for reasons of expedience in the modern TV era must be rooted in a sort of purist philosophy, but I don't understand why it is to that particular status quo that the purists have chosen to cling. It reminds me of the way conservatives point to the "traditional family values" of the 1950s, an era that was a brief snapshot in American history, and not a very representative one at that.
UserPostedImage
porky88
12 years ago

The problem with this argument is that it is fuzzy and nebulous. As a benchmark for evaluating the fairness of the overtime system, it suffers from a lack of falsifiability, which is the hallmark of any scientific hypothesis. What is your definition of a team that buckles under pressure? All one has to do is define that term as a team that happens not to be able to prevent an offense from "driving 50 yards to setup a 47-yard field goal" in an overtime situation and voilá, you win the argument by default. For that reason, it is about as useful as ranking quarterbacks by their "intangibles." It can be whatever you want it to be.

It seems to me that most of the people making the argument for a sudden-death system in football have never taken a basic statistics course. Statistically speaking, the advantage that accrues to the team winning the coinflip is huge and the correlations are undeniable. The stubborn clinging to a status quo that was chosen purely for reasons of expedience in the modern TV era must be rooted in a sort of purist philosophy, but I don't understand why it is to that particular status quo that the purists have chosen to cling. It reminds me of the way conservatives point to the "traditional family values" of the 1950s, an era that was a brief snapshot in American history, and not a very representative one at that.

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel 


You overlooked the complete point of my post. The argument isn't that OT is perfect the way it is. I'm not denying that there is an advantage to winning a coin toss. Frankly, I'm not against tweaks, though I think the current postseason OT system is not the way to go. The argument is a coin toss does not decide a game. In fact, not one thing EVER decides a football game. It's as simple as that. In every scenario presented, players still decide the outcome.

The same way a coin toss doesn't decide a football game can be applied to the Aaron Rodgers fumble against the Cardinals. Rodgers isn't to blame for losing the game in that scenario. Certainly, he buckled under pressure 😝, but you can point to other factors that played a role in the outcome of the game as well.
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member Topic Starter
12 years ago



It seems to me that most of the people making the argument for a sudden-death system in football have never taken a basic statistics course.

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel 




Well I was going to remain silent as no one is going to change the other person's mind. For the most part we keep discussing two separate issues. You seem to think the NFL created the current OT to make the game fair. The did so to break a tie. They didn't care who won or how they won. America demanded an end to tie games and they gave it to us. I am ok with that. You and others are not. I am fine with that too.

As for statistic classes- I have had several. I understand the concept. (Did very well in the classes too.) That has no bearing on the discussion as you are not quantifying the sample size properly. From my perspective. You know and I know and many others know we can tweak the data to come up with any conclusion we want. As porky was saying make the pool larger. Add in to the OT games additional data. Tell us how many times the losing team fumbled the ball in the regulation period. Tell us how many Ints they gave up. Tell us how many dropped passes they had. Tell us how many pick 6's their DB let slip through their fingers.

All we are saying is there is a lot more to the game than the coin flip. You ignore all the rest of it and are fixated on that one portion. Sure it is a sample size. Relevant to you. Not relevant to me.

For now the NFL is going to leave the rule as is. I am fine with that. You are not. Oh well. Then who says life is fair? If they change it you will be happy I will see it as needless. Consider it more meddling which the NFL is so good at and accept it. Truth of the matter they will prob change it. Bit they are going to wait a few years and see how the new spot of the KO impacts the game and OT before they make any change. So just relax and wait 3-4 years.
UserPostedImage
Nonstopdrivel
12 years ago

The same way a coin toss doesn't decide a football game can be applied to the Aaron Rodgers fumble against the Cardinals.

Originally Posted by: porky88 


I am not sure how useful it is to cite this game in this context, however, as that game is a prime example of a situation in which both teams touched the ball. True, it supports your contention that the defense should be able to make a play to stop the offense, but in this case, Rodgers had already lost the ball before contact was made, and he furthered the damage of what was in many ways a freak play by subsequently kicking a ball that should have been dead the moment it hit the ground, thereby prolonging the play and giving the defender a chance to retrieve it. So while it was an opportunistic play on the part of the defender, it was also primarily a failure on the part of the offense -- specifically, the quarterback.

Of course, had Aaron Rodgers managed to connect with Greg Jennings earlier in the drive, this game would probably have been yet another classic case of a game in which the opposing team never got to touch the ball. 🖐

You seem to think the NFL created the current OT to make the game fair.

"wpr" wrote:


No, I most certainly do not. I wrote in my post above that the current OT format was chosen out of expedience given the constraints of the modern TV era. In other words, it was chosen not to be fair, but to end games more quickly. And given that fairness is usually a prized attribute of sporting competition, I expressed surprise that a lot of the purists cling to such a system that is self-consciously not based on principles of fairness.

Add in to the OT games additional data.

"wpr" wrote:


Leaving out the fact that some of your suggestions (dropped INTs by DBs, for example) are inherently subjective, what would the introduction of these additional data points prove?

If they change it you will be happy I will see it as needless.

"wpr" wrote:


Again, you miss my point. I have stated repeatedly in the past that I consider the current system "needless," as you put it. I do not understand why the league and fans are so dead-set on ensuring that ties do not happen. I personally would not be at all bothered if the old system were brought back and we saw more ties in the standings. I personally think it would be more interesting.

Like you, I get tired of the incessant rule changes in football. One of the nice things about baseball is that one can make pretty relevant comparisons between eras, because for all practical purposes, the rules and the schedule format have been static for over 100 years. It is impossible to do that with professional football. For one thing, the length of the season has steadily increased over the decades; for another, the rules change every single year; for yet another, the postseason format has continued to evolve. Season and career records are not just all that meaningful in the NFL when compared to a sport like baseball.
UserPostedImage
wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member Topic Starter
12 years ago


Again, you miss my point. I have stated repeatedly in the past that I consider the current system "needless," as you put it. I do not understand why the league and fans are so dead-set on ensuring that ties do not happen. I personally would not be at all bothered if the old system were brought back and we saw more ties in the standings. I personally think it would be more interesting.

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel 



The ties you cherish in other sports (Olympic hockey world cup soccer for the most part) I find terrible and boring. There is nothing worse than watch a pool match in which one team is content to merely tie in order to advance to the next round. Boring BORING BORING. Don't get me wrong if I was the coach I would do the same thing.

I have been thinking about why I like the current OT system. What was it in the past that made me feel this way.

I decided the genesis was the Thanksgiving Day game between Chicago and Detroit Nov 27, 1980. Detroit (7-5) was the favored over Chicago (4-8). The Lions kind of bumbled along most of the game and never put away the Bears. That made for a pretty boring game. Yet with no time left on the clock the Bears scored to tie the game. They then took the kick 95 yards to win in OT. Even though I am for the most part anti Bears, I and everyone in the room, had to admit that was one heck of a fun game to watch.

Now people try and tell me that it was not fair that Detroit did not get yet another chance to win the game. I don't feel the same way. Some have even advocated doing away with the kick off all together and want to set the ball on the 20 yard line instead. I hope it never happens.
UserPostedImage
Zero2Cool
12 years ago
I like the argument that both teams had an opportunity for four quarters, therefore don't NEED to have their offense touch the ball once in over time. I think if the rules were to say that both teams offense would get the ball, we'd see less urgency closing out games, thus less exciting finishes.

I'm against changing the rules in overtime. I love an exciting finish and I strongly feel that there will be a sense of urgency missing if the teams both know they'll get the ball in over time.
UserPostedImage
Nonstopdrivel
12 years ago
It is a pretty big overstatement to say that I "cherish" ties. I said seeing ties in the standings would be interesting; that is, it would make the playoff scenarios more intriguing.

By the way, anyone who finds sports that involve ties boring has never watched, for example, rugby union, which allows for ties but includes incentives to avoid them. Postseason standings are seeded by the accumulation of tournament points. In SuperRugby, for example, teams accrue 4 tournament points for each regular season victory, 2 points for each tie, 1 point for scoring at least four tries (the rugby equivalent of a touchdown) in one game, and 1 point for losing by less than 7 points.

So there is very little incentive to settle for a tie, and teams typically try their hardest to score as time expires. For this reason, the last quarter of most games tends to be far the most exciting. In fact, I see a lot more last-second scoring in rugby union than I ever do in the NFL -- and none of that silly settling for field goals, either. They go for tries.
UserPostedImage
vikesrule
12 years ago

... I love an exciting finish and I strongly feel that there will be a sense of urgency missing if the teams both know they'll get the ball in over time.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Agreed

Classic epic failure....

NFL's Worst All-Time Coaching Decisions
3. Dennis Green Gets Waaaay Too Conservative 

UserPostedImage 

The Falcons and Vikings were tied at 27 in the all-dome matchup of the '99 NFC championship with 30 seconds left. The Vikings had two timeouts left, and also had the most prolific offense to date in the history of the NFL. No wind to worry about. No snow. Forty yards would have been enough to get Gary Andersen (perfect in the regular season) into field-goal range.
But Green left the fate of his entire season to the overtime coin flip by having QB Randall Cunningham take a knee.
Atlanta won the toss, showed they are who Green THOUGHT they were, and promptly won the game without the Vikes ever seeing the ball again. Most humiliating for Green (pictured below, being consoled by Falcons coach Dan Reeves)? Being replaced by draft-day guru Mike Tice three years later.


Zero2Cool
12 years ago

Agreed

Classic epic failure....


Originally Posted by: vikesrule 



Hey, does this look familiar to you?




UserPostedImage
vikesrule
12 years ago

Hey, does this look familiar to you?

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Ya know Z2C, if I had $10 for every time that I've called you an asshole...I could retire to a life of luxury on a Caribbean island.
Fan Shout
dfosterf (9h) : For the record, I enjoy Beast and Mucky drafts
Zero2Cool (16h) : Haha
Mucky Tundra (17h) : No time for talking! Back to work beast!
beast (17h) : You saw only 4,201 of my mocks? 🥺 I think that means you missed more than half of them 😢
dfosterf (20h) : Does anyone know what Lambeau field improvements got put on hold? My guess would be for the 2025 draft
Zero2Cool (23h) : It's like listen, you made 4,201 mocks, no shit.
Zero2Cool (23h) : Cuz during the draft "I had them mocked there!" as if it's amazing.
Zero2Cool (23h) : They're fun to do once in awhile. It's people who think they are "content" that annoy me.
dfosterf (23h) : Against tbd
dfosterf (23h) : Answer to your question is yes, it's a Thursday, will be the Chiefs aga
dfosterf (23h) : Luckily for all concerned, I don't post them. I did one, but that was like 25 mocks ago
Zero2Cool (23h) : NFL 2024 gonna start Sept 5th isn't it???
Zero2Cool (23h) : Ugh... kids these days!
dfosterf (23h) : I'm gonna go do some more mock draft hell instead 🤪
Zero2Cool (23h) : Did we do one of those prediction threads yet for 2024 season?
dfosterf (23h) : In my city, they are playing the nimby game, in order to keep some railroad tracks vs. 2 professional sports teams and a concert venue.
dfosterf (27-Mar) : And/Or a city council, of which I haven't seen a good one in a very long time
dfosterf (27-Mar) : That sounds like a Mayor, not a city.
buckeyepackfan (26-Mar) : Packers halt scheduled 80mil upgrade of stadium until lease agreement talks are restarted
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : City of Green Bay puts Packers' Lambeau Field lease talks on hold
buckeyepackfan (26-Mar) : Packers 1 of 3 teams to vote no on new kickoff rule.
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : Packers sign another Kicker
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Lengthy explanation at PFF if you click the link
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Kickoff rules officially changed.ngthy explan
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : lol
Cheesey (26-Mar) : 2009? No thanks! One open heart surgery is enough!
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Good for you!
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : Yes. That's the one.
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Is that "Lady Dugan" per chance?
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Crystal?
dfosterf (26-Mar) : Please refresh my memory
Zero2Cool (26-Mar) : Alan posts. Crystal back in my life. It's 2009 all over again! Lol
Mucky Tundra (26-Mar) : BAH GAWD! THAT'S CHEESEYS MUSIC!
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : Gutekunst said early stages of Jordan Love contract being discussed.
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : Shouldn't be penalized cuz official screwed up
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : Yeah, challenge until you are incorrect twice.
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : Fining them is the goal, per the people who made the rule anyway.
dfosterf (25-Mar) : Still waiting on the kickoff rule changes. Did hear yesterday that the touchback proposal will now be the 30 yard line, not the 35
dfosterf (25-Mar) : Probably speed of game issues with your proposal
dfosterf (25-Mar) : Hopefully the refs don't get in the habit of throwing flags on this
beast (25-Mar) : I think when it comes to Challenges should get two strikes, so unlimited challenges as long as they keep winning them, but 2 wrong then done
dfosterf (25-Mar) : Still subject to the fines etc
dfosterf (25-Mar) : Yes, I should have been more specific. Also, they are now saying it would be a 15 yard penalty. That makes more sense .
beast (25-Mar) : Simply fined in the week to follow
beast (25-Mar) : I agree with one NFL official, it'll probably be like some of the helmets hits, not really called by the refs on the field but simply fined
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : Hip drop is not. Super confusing. Referees job is harder
Zero2Cool (25-Mar) : Swivel hip drop is banned
dfosterf (25-Mar) : The hip drop enforcement will be in the form of fines, etc. Not flags
dfosterf (25-Mar) : A major foul will be enforced on the offense if there are offsetting penalties in a change of possession situation
dfosterf (25-Mar) : Teams will receive a 3rd challenge if 1 was successful. Previously, it took 2
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2023 Packers Schedule
Sunday, Sep 10 @ 3:25 PM
Bears
Sunday, Sep 17 @ 12:00 PM
Falcons
Sunday, Sep 24 @ 12:00 PM
SAINTS
Thursday, Sep 28 @ 7:15 PM
LIONS
Monday, Oct 9 @ 7:15 PM
Raiders
Sunday, Oct 22 @ 3:25 PM
Broncos
Sunday, Oct 29 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Nov 5 @ 12:00 PM
RAMS
Sunday, Nov 12 @ 12:00 PM
Steelers
Sunday, Nov 19 @ 12:00 PM
CHARGERS
Thursday, Nov 23 @ 11:30 AM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 3 @ 7:20 PM
CHIEFS
Monday, Dec 11 @ 7:15 PM
Giants
Sunday, Dec 17 @ 12:00 PM
BUCCANEERS
Sunday, Dec 24 @ 12:00 PM
Panthers
Sunday, Dec 31 @ 7:20 PM
Vikings
Sunday, Jan 7 @ 3:25 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Jan 14 @ 3:30 PM
Cowboys
Saturday, Jan 20 @ 7:15 PM
49ers
Recent Topics
9h / Green Bay Packers Talk / dfosterf

9h / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

9h / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

16h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

21h / Random Babble / Zero2Cool

27-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

26-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

26-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

26-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / bboystyle

25-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

25-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

24-Mar / Around The NFL / dhazer

24-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

24-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

22-Mar / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2024 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.