PackFanWithTwins
11 years ago

You're absolutely right and I'm absolutely wrong. Last year's SB winner was the Giants who were ranked 32 out of 32 in running. the year before it was the Packers who were ranked 24 out of 32 in rushing. Before that, the Saints who were 6 out of 32 in rushing. Before that, it was the Steelers who were 23 out of 32 in rushing.

What do those teams have in common? All those teams led the NFL in rushing.

Well, there you go. There's our problem. Screw the pass. Let's lead the NFL in rushing so we can win the SB. πŸ€”




Sarcasm aside, the key to winning a game is Passer Rating Differential. You can read all about the correlation here:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2012/5/PRD/ 

Dexter_Sinister wrote up a really nice article last year about it and how it correlated with Super Bowl wins historically.

As for correlation between rushing success and winning, there is NONE WHATSOEVER. I checked the stats. It had as much correlation as how many times a Vikings fan picks his nose vs how successful people in the East Coast are at catching salmon.

Originally Posted by: zombieslayer 



Just a note. The giants, were last in rushing because they sucked earlier in the season, but then they went on their run, they were rushing for 109/gm. When the Packers went on their run in 2010. they were rushing for 103/gm.

Saints were not that good, but they also had the run game pick up at the end.

All three had a passing game, a run game and a defense all playing their best at the end.
The world needs ditch diggers too Danny!!!
play2win
11 years ago

You're absolutely right and I'm absolutely wrong. Last year's SB winner was the Giants who were ranked 32 out of 32 in running. the year before it was the Packers who were ranked 24 out of 32 in rushing. Before that, the Saints who were 6 out of 32 in rushing. Before that, it was the Steelers who were 23 out of 32 in rushing.

What do those teams have in common? All those teams led the NFL in rushing.

Well, there you go. There's our problem. Screw the pass. Let's lead the NFL in rushing so we can win the SB. πŸ€”




Sarcasm aside, the key to winning a game is Passer Rating Differential. You can read all about the correlation here:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2012/5/PRD/ 

Dexter_Sinister wrote up a really nice article last year about it and how it correlated with Super Bowl wins historically.

As for correlation between rushing success and winning, there is NONE WHATSOEVER. I checked the stats. It had as much correlation as how many times a Vikings fan picks his nose vs how successful people in the East Coast are at catching salmon.

Originally Posted by: zombieslayer 



zombie, c'mon man! You can't use stats like that when Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were hurt most of the season. They both came back and were a big part of their run to winning the SB after their team went 9-7 regular season. They totaled 26 carries for 110 yds v. NE to win it all. For NE, conversely, Green-Ellis had just 10 carries for 44 yds. Welker had 2 carries for 21.

Go on believing we don't need 20+ carries per game to win. Whatever. I disagree.

Division leaders and NFL ranking rushing:

NE #3
BAL #13
HOU #7 (with a game yet to play tonight)
SD #16
(Tie) NYG #12 PHI #10
(Tie) CHI #11 and MIN #9
ATL #21
(Tie) SF #1 and AZ #31

We rank #20 overall. Oddly enough, both ATL and AZ have more attempts than we do (ranking #18 and 20 to our #22), helping to keep the opposing D honest. Take away Rodgers' scrambles and I would bet we are nearer to the bottom of the NFL.

Passer Rating Differential??? You don't think that has something to do with rushing to keep opposing defenses honest? I sure do.
zombieslayer
11 years ago
As my research said, you still have to run the ball. Yes. That much we agree on.

However, you don't have to be good at it.

So yes, you should have rushing attempts. But as unintuitive as this sounds, the total yards don't matter.
My man Donald Driver
UserPostedImage
(thanks to Pack93z for the pic)
2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡Ή πŸ‡²πŸ‡² πŸ‡¦πŸ‡·
macbob
11 years ago

As my research said, you still have to run the ball. Yes. That much we agree on.

However, you don't have to be good at it.

So yes, you should have rushing attempts. But as unintuitive as this sounds, the total yards don't matter.

Originally Posted by: zombieslayer 



Agree with what you said 99%--total yards aren't as important as rushing attempts, but I wouldn't say total yards don't matter.

The more success you have running the ball the more you'll distract the D from your passing game. If you're running it for 40 yds you'll get their attention a little more than if you're running it for -2, -4 per carry...
UserPostedImage
Porforis
11 years ago

Agree with what you said 99%--total yards aren't as important as rushing attempts, but I wouldn't say total yards don't matter.

The more success you have running the ball the more you'll distract the D from your passing game. If you're running it for 40 yds you'll get their attention a little more than if you're running it for -2, -4 per carry...

Originally Posted by: macbob 



They need to respect the run. If you're only getting 1, 2 yards per carry when they're loading up the box, oh well. If they're in nickel or dime and you can't run it for more than 2 or 3 on a regular basis, they don't NEED to respect it. You don't need to be great at the run, just okay. And in order to do that on a regular basis, you need to run it more than a dozen times per game.
zombieslayer
11 years ago

They need to respect the run. If you're only getting 1, 2 yards per carry when they're loading up the box, oh well. If they're in nickel or dime and you can't run it for more than 2 or 3 on a regular basis, they don't NEED to respect it. You don't need to be great at the run, just okay. And in order to do that on a regular basis, you need to run it more than a dozen times per game.

Originally Posted by: Porforis 



That's the weird thing is you don't even have to be OK. You just have to run the ball.

You could actually have a mediocre rushing attack and win it all. Has happened time and time again.

That's why I used the word "unintuitive." You'd think by the way I'm worded the last thing I said that I'd be smoking crack, but my research shows otherwise. You only need attempts. Yards really don't matter.
My man Donald Driver
UserPostedImage
(thanks to Pack93z for the pic)
2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡Ή πŸ‡²πŸ‡² πŸ‡¦πŸ‡·
Zero2Cool
11 years ago

You only need attempts. Yards really don't matter.

Originally Posted by: zombieslayer 



This goes along what Shawn and I have been trying to get through to you for a couple years now. The attempts are what keeps a defense honest. A solid 60/40 pass/run ratio is very good for an offense as it opens up a lot of opportunities. Right now the Packers are being manhandled by a two high safety scheme because they are not worried about the second level being reached by a RB or a slant pass.

I'd rather see James Starks than Alex Green running the ball, even though Green has the potential to break one, he's often stuffed at the line for a loss. Starks nearly always gains at least a yard or two.

Until this team figures out how to be more balanced offensively and the QB drops his ego and takes the 5 yard easy out over the 25 yarder into double coverage ... mediocre is all we'll see.
UserPostedImage
play2win
11 years ago

This goes along what Shawn and I have been trying to get through to you for a couple years now. The attempts are what keeps a defense honest. A solid 60/40 pass/run ratio is very good for an offense as it opens up a lot of opportunities. Right now the Packers are being manhandled by a two high safety scheme because they are not worried about the second level being reached by a RB or a slant pass.

I'd rather see James Starks than Alex Green running the ball, even though Green has the potential to break one, he's often stuffed at the line for a loss. Starks nearly always gains at least a yard or two.

Until this team figures out how to be more balanced offensively and the QB drops his ego and takes the 5 yard easy out over the 25 yarder into double coverage ... mediocre is all we'll see.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



I wish I could applaud twice!

I realize rule changes have made it much easier to pass in today's NFL, but that doesn't mean you throw out the basic tenants of the game.

Pound the fricken football +25 attempts by your RBs (QB scrambles don't count here) and I would say we win 9 out of 10 games. Especially with what that does to a defense, against our passing game. Without it, we clearly see we have no passing game.

Really simple stuff.
Porforis
11 years ago
I'm not saying that it's false, but multiple people keep saying that all you need to do is run the ball, yards don't matter a lick and that it's unintuitive but true. I see people dropping stats about poor rushing teams winning big, but does anybody have some examples of truly ineffective rushing teams (< 3 YPC) being successful? It's definitely unintuitive but I'm no more of an expert than anyone else here (and less of an expert than many), I'd just like a more in-depth explanation of WHY it works with some specific examples.

For example, if you're averaging 2 YPC 8 games in, why wouldn't an opposing defense want to play with an emphasis on passing every down unless it's an obvious running situation? Focus on nullifying your opponent's strengths, not their weaknesses. Yeah, if they're running it 20-25 times a game they might average 3-4 a carry if you don't respect the run but let them try to beat you on the ground and shut them down through the air. 75-100 yards on the ground isn't going to kill you if they're ineffective passing the ball and get minimal benefit from running the play action.
Zero2Cool
11 years ago

I'm not saying that it's false, but multiple people keep saying that all you need to do is run the ball, yards don't matter a lick and that it's unintuitive but true.

Originally Posted by: Porforis 



I had to stop reading here to clarify this. No one is saying yards mean nothing at all. What is being said is you don't need an elite (Adrian Peterson) RB to keep the defense honest. You need attempts, attempts that garner positive yardage. Even if you get 2 yards per attempt, that changes 1st and 10 to 2nd and 8 or 2nd and 6 to 3rd and 4.

Ideally you want a running back who gets 4 yards per attempt, never fumbles and has very sound protection while being above average at receiving out of the backfield.

JAMES STARKS WILL BE THAT GUY!!


:-"
UserPostedImage
Users browsing this topic
    Fan Shout
    dfosterf (7h) : The only problem with that is he isn't a guard either.
    dfosterf (8h) : Put him at right guard. That is where he will be coached. That is where he will compete. He is not even allowed to look at the LT playbook.
    dfosterf (18-Apr) : Kidding aside, I hope the best for him.
    dfosterf (18-Apr) : Went to a Titans board. One comment there. Not very long. I quote: "LOL" They don't sound overly upset about our aquisition.
    beast (18-Apr) : OT Dillard has been absolutely horrible... like OG Newman levels
    dfosterf (18-Apr) : Suit him up and have him stand in front of the big board as a draft day cautionary tale.
    Zero2Cool (18-Apr) : Packers sign T Andre Dillard.
    Mucky Tundra (18-Apr) : Adds most of the information this time of year comes from agents.
    Mucky Tundra (18-Apr) : @RealAlexBarth Bill Belichick says accurate draft information doesn't leak from teams until about 12 hours before the draft. Adds most of th
    Mucky Tundra (18-Apr) : I am very happy that for moment, Jordan Love seems like a normal human being
    Zero2Cool (17-Apr) : Belichick * whatever
    Zero2Cool (17-Apr) : "There's a lot of depth at Offensive Tackle and Wide Receiver." Bill Bellichick
    Zero2Cool (17-Apr) : Thanks! I can't believe it's over haha
    Martha Careful (16-Apr) : Congratulations
    Zero2Cool (16-Apr) : Boom. Student Loan. $0.00. Only took about 20 years.
    Zero2Cool (14-Apr) : Packers DT Kenny Clark: New defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will 'allow us to be way more disruptive'
    Zero2Cool (12-Apr) : Saints have agreed to terms on a contract with former Packers wide receiver Equanimeous St. Brown.
    beast (12-Apr) : No, but of it's for legislation, then half of the country will find it evil, not good, whatever it says....
    Mucky Tundra (12-Apr) : Draft is still 2 weeks away. UGH
    dhazer (11-Apr) : Does anyone know of a good AI generator to create letters of Support for legislation?
    Zero2Cool (11-Apr) : Gordon "Red" Batty retires as equipment manager
    Zero2Cool (10-Apr) : Sounds like that's pretty certain now.
    Zero2Cool (10-Apr) : Packers "at" Eagles in Brazil. Week One
    dfosterf (10-Apr) : Va' Fazer As Malas Va' !
    Zero2Cool (9-Apr) : Mark Murphy tipping us off?
    Zero2Cool (9-Apr) : β€œWe’re either the first- or second-most popular team in Brazil.”
    Zero2Cool (9-Apr) : Christian Watson got married. Wife better be careful with those hamstrings!! πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚
    dfosterf (9-Apr) : Those poor bastards
    Zero2Cool (8-Apr) : Falcons have signed former Packers CB Kevin King, who has been out of football since 2021.
    dfosterf (8-Apr) : Collectively, we need to spend more time in what we have, when analyzing ostendible needs and historical proclivities
    dfosterf (8-Apr) : I say he is better than so many of these draft picks
    dfosterf (8-Apr) : Question of the week for me: Has anyone besides me done any deep dive into the potential of Alex McGough, our 3rd string qb?
    Zero2Cool (8-Apr) : Or in Tunsil's case, something gets released day of draft or day before lol
    Zero2Cool (8-Apr) : Seems every year someone does something pre-draft.
    dfosterf (8-Apr) : Falling down drunk. The draft board
    dfosterf (8-Apr) : Allright! Potential character guy/f#Γ—k up pickup in D'Vondre Sweat!
    Zero2Cool (7-Apr) : Go Badgers!!!
    Martha Careful (6-Apr) : Go Boilermakers!!!
    Martha Careful (5-Apr) : Diggs has not stepped up in the playoffs and has a high cost
    beast (5-Apr) : Probably not going to let Diggs walk away unless he's horrible... but according to reports he also might not be as good as he used to be.
    beast (5-Apr) : The 25th pick in the draft has been an offensive player since 2017, 2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB, 1 OC
    Mucky Tundra (5-Apr) : Odd, why give up a 2025 2nd Rounder for him if you're just gonna let him walk?
    Zero2Cool (4-Apr) : Texans to let Diggs be free agent in '25
    buckeyepackfan (4-Apr) : 49r's aign RB Patrick Taylor.
    Martha Careful (4-Apr) : Reversion to the mean would indicate we will keep it
    Zero2Cool (4-Apr) : It's also been utilized in a trade in 14 of the past 20 years
    Zero2Cool (4-Apr) : The 25th pick in the draft hasn't been made by it's original holder since 2016.
    Mucky Tundra (4-Apr) : Gotta imagine that Green Bay vs Houston will be a primetime game this upcoming season
    Zero2Cool (3-Apr) : No. Kill QB. No worries. 😁
    Mucky Tundra (3-Apr) : Diggs, Collins, Dell and Schultz is gonna be tough to cover
    Please sign in to use Fan Shout
    2023 Packers Schedule
    Sunday, Sep 10 @ 3:25 PM
    Bears
    Sunday, Sep 17 @ 12:00 PM
    Falcons
    Sunday, Sep 24 @ 12:00 PM
    SAINTS
    Thursday, Sep 28 @ 7:15 PM
    LIONS
    Monday, Oct 9 @ 7:15 PM
    Raiders
    Sunday, Oct 22 @ 3:25 PM
    Broncos
    Sunday, Oct 29 @ 12:00 PM
    VIKINGS
    Sunday, Nov 5 @ 12:00 PM
    RAMS
    Sunday, Nov 12 @ 12:00 PM
    Steelers
    Sunday, Nov 19 @ 12:00 PM
    CHARGERS
    Thursday, Nov 23 @ 11:30 AM
    Lions
    Sunday, Dec 3 @ 7:20 PM
    CHIEFS
    Monday, Dec 11 @ 7:15 PM
    Giants
    Sunday, Dec 17 @ 12:00 PM
    BUCCANEERS
    Sunday, Dec 24 @ 12:00 PM
    Panthers
    Sunday, Dec 31 @ 7:20 PM
    Vikings
    Sunday, Jan 7 @ 3:25 PM
    BEARS
    Sunday, Jan 14 @ 3:30 PM
    Cowboys
    Saturday, Jan 20 @ 7:15 PM
    49ers
    Recent Topics
    1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

    8h / Green Bay Packers Talk / dfosterf

    21h / Random Babble / Zero2Cool

    18-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

    18-Apr / Random Babble / Mucky Tundra

    18-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

    17-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

    17-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

    17-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

    17-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

    17-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

    16-Apr / Random Babble / Martha Careful

    15-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / dfosterf

    12-Apr / Random Babble / Nonstopdrivel

    12-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

    Headlines
    Copyright Β© 2006 - 2024 PackersHome.comβ„’. All Rights Reserved.