The shelf life thing doesn't really mean much to me. It seems that most good RB start declining around 30 which say you draft a guy around 22 or so gives you about 8 years with him which is well beyond the first contract. If they don't see the end of their 1st contract it's usually because they aren't a good player not because they wore out or something. The 1st round contracts aren't really a big deal anymore either since the rookie wage scale.
A similarly skilled lineman or DB will no doubt take priority over a RB but it isn't a waste to take a RB in the 1st round if he's the best guy on the board and can help the team win.
Originally Posted by: steveishere
2008 NFL 1st Rd picks
Oakland- McFadden decent back but has never played a full season
Panthers- Stewart 19 games started after 5 years in league, missed 7 games in 2012
Dallas- Jones 23 games started in 5 years, 545 yards/ yr avg
Steelers- Mendenhall good years 2,3,4 then blew knee and limited effectiveness part time in 2012
Titans- Chris Johnson- GREAT, durable back!!!
2009 NFL 1st Rd RB picks
Denver- Knowshon Moreno Has played 15 games in the last 2 years after a good first 2. Worn out?
Colts- Donald Brown- 1,840 yards rushing after 4 years, 15 starts in 4 years
Cardinals- Beanie Wells- 2,471 yards after 4 years, only 8 games in 2012
2010 NFL 1st Rd picks
Buffalo- CJ Spiller 2012 was great, but only ran for 844 yards in first 2 years, not impact
Chargers- Ryan Matthews hasn't played a full season yet
Lions- Jahvid Best 16 games in 2010, 6 in 2011, 0 in 2012, is he done?
Of the 11 RB's drafted in Rd 1 that would be entering their 3,4 or 5th year, I believe only 2 played a full season in 2012.
In the league's top 20 rushers in 2012, there are only 2 over 27. Neither were 30 yet, but both (Frank Gore and Stephen Jackson) will be before 2013. Good running backs don't start declining around 30. Only great ones even make it near 30. Good backs are declining the day they are drafted.