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nerdmann  
#1 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 7:29:01 AM(UTC)
Ranking Thompson's best, worst 1st-round picks

Quote:
That huge whiff on the No. 16 overall pick, along with the Packers’ inability to get much production from their last three first-rounders — Derek Sherrod in 2011, Nick Perry in 2012 and Datone Jones in 2013 — leaves the impression Thompson hasn’t been very successful in Round 1.


Harrell was a calculated gamble. Sometimes you do that. But let's face it. The problem here is INJURIES. These guys can all play, at LEAST as well as AJ Hawk.

Quote:
Both missed on linemen, with Thompson’s selection of Sherrod looking a lot like Wolf’s choice of John Michels. And Wolf matched Thompson’s Harrell stinker with the drafting of bust Jamal Reynolds.


Bullshit and bullshit. John Micheals, "the thinking man's LT," just couldn't play. He was a converted defensive lineman who had ONE year on offense. Sherrod just shattered the hell out of his leg. And let's face it, trying to make him play G was stupid. As for Jamal Reynolds, he just didn't have it. Harrell was a calculated gamble, as I stated above. But it wasn't a question of whether he could play. The question was whether he could stay healthy.

Quote:
Thompson also has made the majority of his first-round picks later in the round, when talented players are harder to find.

Seven of Wolf’s 12 first-round picks were No. 19 or earlier, while just three of Thompson’s 11 first-rounders were that early, assuming the Packers don’t trade up this year.


Huge factor. Much easier to get a guy in the top 15 than at the bottom of the round.

FACT. Keep these guys healthy, and suddenly Ted looks like the genius he is.

wpr  
#2 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 11:51:37 AM(UTC)
I don't want a GM to take a "calculated risk" in the first round. Not really in the 2nd round either. Risk taking is for the 4th round and later.

Harrell was just a horrible pick. Period. Everyone knew he was an injury risk. Everyone. IF he would have been healthy he was suppose to be a top pick but if he is not healthy he wasn't even a 3rd round pick.

As so many have pointed out it was hardly a tough choice to take Aaron. He was by far the BPA. While QB was not an immediate need for the upcoming season, QB was a need as they had to start to develop Brett's replacement.

Ted's best pick was trading back into the first the pick up CM3. The players that were taken with GB's picks were Darius Butler, Derek Cox and Brandon Tate. Now if NE selected Jairus Byrd and Mike Wallace instead of Butler andTate maybe we would grade the deal differently. (Cox drafted by Jacksonville in a trade with NE.) This proves what I have been saying for years. Trading up for a stud player is better than trading down to get 2-3 average quality players.
nerdmann  
#3 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 1:01:36 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
I don't want a GM to take a "calculated risk" in the first round. Not really in the 2nd round either. Risk taking is for the 4th round and later.

Harrell was just a horrible pick. Period. Everyone knew he was an injury risk. Everyone. IF he would have been healthy he was suppose to be a top pick but if he is not healthy he wasn't even a 3rd round pick.

As so many have pointed out it was hardly a tough choice to take Aaron. He was by far the BPA. While QB was not an immediate need for the upcoming season, QB was a need as they had to start to develop Brett's replacement.

Ted's best pick was trading back into the first the pick up CM3. The players that were taken with GB's picks were Darius Butler, Derek Cox and Brandon Tate. Now if NE selected Jairus Byrd and Mike Wallace instead of Butler andTate maybe we would grade the deal differently. (Cox drafted by Jacksonville in a trade with NE.) This proves what I have been saying for years. Trading up for a stud player is better than trading down to get 2-3 average quality players.


So you'd rather have Ted only take "safe" players, like AJ Hawk?
luigis  
#4 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 1:17:13 PM(UTC)
Harrell was a horrible pick but he wasn't Ahmad Carroll. At least it is supossed in theoretical physics that an uninjured Harrell could have played well.

AJ Hawk was a mandatory average pick.

The move for CM3 was really brilliant.

Rodgers was gutsy.

The best pick Ted has done so far for me was Jordy he got the best player of the whole draft in the 2nd round.
wpr  
#5 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 1:20:06 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
So you'd rather have Ted only take "safe" players, like AJ Hawk?


yes I wanted Ted to take Hawk. He was clearly the BPA according the vast majority of experts. It was a need for GB as well. Good fit. People also knew he was not going to be a HoFer.

Yes in the first round as I said, maybe I need to use little words for you, I don't want to take players who are a risk. Not even at #32. There are more than 30 young men who are capable of playing, even starting, in the NFL. Don't reach for a "might be" in round 1.
nerdmann  
#6 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 1:25:39 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
yes I wanted Ted to take Hawk. He was clearly the BPA according the vast majority of experts. It was a need for GB as well. Good fit. People also knew he was not going to be a HoFer.

Yes in the first round as I said, maybe I need to use little words for you, I don't want to take players who are a risk. Not even at #32. There are more than 30 young men who are capable of playing, even starting, in the NFL. Don't reach for a "might be" in round 1.


So I guess you hate the Clay Matthews pick then.
wpr  
#7 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 1:46:02 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
So I guess you hate the Clay Matthews pick then.


I have no idea why you are saying that. I already said Clay was the best #1 pick.

I said moving up for a better quality player works out better than moving down, usually.

We are not discussing whether or not Ted should have done something else with his picks. Just rating the first round picks that he made.

And whether or not you like Hawk he has set or will set the all time tackling record for GB. I guess that makes him a little better than average even if they have not kept the stat for the past 100 years.
nerdmann  
#8 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 1:49:04 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
I have no idea why you are saying that. I already said Clay was the best #1 pick.

I said moving up for a better quality player works out better than moving down, usually.

We are not discussing whether or not Ted should have done something else with his picks. Just rating the first round picks that he made.

And whether or not you like Hawk he has set or will set the all time tackling record for GB. I guess that makes him a little better than average even if they have not kept the stat for the past 100 years.


I said it, because it was risky to trade back up like that.
wpr  
#9 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 3:13:00 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
I said it, because it was risky to trade back up like that.


no CM3 was a solid pick. He may not have had 3 years as an All American but there was plenty of film on what he could do.

Look every single player is a risk. They could not stretch out and rip the hammy. They could get hit by a bus. He could be kidnapped and turned into Taliban love slave. Any thing could happen but in reality not very likely.
nerdmann  
#10 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 3:49:47 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
no CM3 was a solid pick. He may not have had 3 years as an All American but there was plenty of film on what he could do.

Look every single player is a risk. They could not stretch out and rip the hammy. They could get hit by a bus. He could be kidnapped and turned into Taliban love slave. Any thing could happen but in reality not very likely.


Wow man, so you know ahead of time that Clay was gonna pan out like he did.

Perhaps you'd care to name the top 5 pro bowlers in this years draft? I'm gonna be putting together my board soon, could use the insight.
macbob  
#11 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 4:08:40 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
This proves what I have been saying for years. Trading up for a stud player is better than trading down to get 2-3 average quality players.


Actually, it depends on your situation. Trading away picks to move up helps your starting team at the expense of your depth.

Mike Sherman was a poster boy for the former (trading up), and Ted Thompson is a poster boy for the latter (trading down for additional picks).

Sherman left us depleted--as long as our starters were healthy, we were OK, but the minute somebody got injured there was a big drop off to their replacement. It also relied on him hitting a larger percentage of his picks, since he had fewer picks overall.

Thompson's approach was exactly what we needed after Sherman. The additional picks allowed us to regain depth quicker.

But once you have good depth again, you can afford some trading up to improve your starters. Which is where Thompson has impressed me the most--he adjusted his normal approach to trade up and take CM3 because of his player evaluation, and hit a home run.

Overall, I've been impressed with Thompson--he's kept us toward the top of the NFL, got us a Super Bowl championship, and had us surviving the loss of Aaron Rodgers to make the playoffs. He's had a few misses, but that's the nature of the beast--it's going to happen.
nerdmann  
#12 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 4:45:31 PM(UTC)
Biggest problem facing this team is the injuries.
TheKanataThrilla  
#13 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 5:43:44 PM(UTC)
It is hard for me to be pissed at Thompson for most of the picks because I was pretty happy with most of them as they were often BPA that filled a need. The one pick I wasn't happy with and I hope he proves me wrong is Nick Perry. Not that I thought he wasn't talented, I just thought we should have went with a Safety and Harrison Smith was my pick even though he had a second round ranking. I think Safety is now such a key position that if you lose your starter you need to draft a replacement in the early rounds. I find it a failure that Thompson has not found a replacement for Nick Collins.
wpr  
#14 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 6:10:33 PM(UTC)
macbob said: Go to Quoted Post
Actually, it depends on your situation. Trading away picks to move up helps your starting team at the expense of your depth.

Mike Sherman was a poster boy for the former (trading up), and Ted Thompson is a poster boy for the latter (trading down for additional picks).

Sherman left us depleted--as long as our starters were healthy, we were OK, but the minute somebody got injured there was a big drop off to their replacement. It also relied on him hitting a larger percentage of his picks, since he had fewer picks overall.

Thompson's approach was exactly what we needed after Sherman. The additional picks allowed us to regain depth quicker.

But once you have good depth again, you can afford some trading up to improve your starters. Which is where Thompson has impressed me the most--he adjusted his normal approach to trade up and take CM3 because of his player evaluation, and hit a home run.

Overall, I've been impressed with Thompson--he's kept us toward the top of the NFL, got us a Super Bowl championship, and had us surviving the loss of Aaron Rodgers to make the playoffs. He's had a few misses, but that's the nature of the beast--it's going to happen.


I don't advocate always trading up at the expense of depth. Nor do I advocate always trading down and collect a lot of backups at the expense of quality game changing players. Like the FA vs draft debate, it takes a balanced approach to have a solid team.

Keep in mind of one the reasons Ted had to get extra draft picks is because GB was in cap hell and they had to get rid of a lot of over priced and under performing players. Accumulating 5th, 6th and 7th round picks is a quick way to do that.

When I say trade up (and I have said this many times in the past week) it has to be the right player and fit a need. I am not saying to trade up just because they can. Ted's team will have spent countless hours researching the prospective player. And let's face it, Ted & Co does a lot better job than 90% of the other GM's out there.
wpr  
#15 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 6:13:16 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
Wow man, so you know ahead of time that Clay was gonna pan out like he did.

Perhaps you'd care to name the top 5 pro bowlers in this years draft? I'm gonna be putting together my board soon, could use the insight.



RollEyes


Yep that is what I said wasn't it? I said I called Ted on his private line and told him CM3 was worth what he gave and and 5 times as much.

I got more than the next 5 pro bowlers but why would I want to give them to you?
yooperfan  
#16 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 6:25:13 PM(UTC)
[laughing] [laughing]
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
RollEyes


Yep that is what I said wasn't it? I said I called Ted on his private line and told him CM3 was worth what he gave and and 5 times as much.

I got more than the next 5 pro bowlers but why would I want to give them to you?
[laughing]

nerdmann  
#17 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 6:42:31 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
RollEyes


Yep that is what I said wasn't it? I said I called Ted on his private line and told him CM3 was worth what he gave and and 5 times as much.

I got more than the next 5 pro bowlers but why would I want to give them to you?


In order to prove you know wtf you're talking about.
wpr  
#18 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 6:52:41 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
In order to prove you know wtf you're talking about.


I don't have to prove squat to you.
mi_keys  
#19 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 7:26:23 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
Ted's best pick was trading back into the first the pick up CM3. The players that were taken with GB's picks were Darius Butler, Derek Cox and Brandon Tate. Now if NE selected Jairus Byrd and Mike Wallace instead of Butler andTate maybe we would grade the deal differently. (Cox drafted by Jacksonville in a trade with NE.) This proves what I have been saying for years. Trading up for a stud player is better than trading down to get 2-3 average quality players.


I get what you are saying with a lot of your post but I disagree with this. One instance doesn't prove anything. It's all about the situation and who is available, and trading back doesn't always result in average players.

For example, in 2006 New England traded up with Green Bay in the second round. They took Chad Jackson, a receiver who ended up with 14 career receptions. With the picks we got from New England we ended up with Greg Jennings and Jason Spitz. Yes, Spitz was an average player. But Jennings was a multi-pro bowler and a key piece of our most recent Super Bowl team. He is decidedly well beyond average (except for his career choice decision making ability; that is subpar).

We also traded back for Jordy Nelson.

More good to elite players are found in the earlier rounds; but depending on what your scouting has dug up and what the board shows, your sometimes better off trading back, not just with regards to depth, but even finding top-end NFL players. It varies widely by situation.
wpr  
#20 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 7:46:46 PM(UTC)
mi_keys said: Go to Quoted Post
I get what you are saying with a lot of your post but I disagree with this. One instance doesn't prove anything. It's all about the situation and who is available, and trading back doesn't always result in average players.

For example, in 2006 New England traded up with Green Bay in the second round. They took Chad Jackson, a receiver who ended up with 14 career receptions. With the picks we got from New England we ended up with Greg Jennings and Jason Spitz. Yes, Spitz was an average player. But Jennings was a multi-pro bowler and a key piece of our most recent Super Bowl team. He is decidedly well beyond average (except for his career choice decision making ability; that is subpar).

We also traded back for Jordy Nelson.

More good to elite players are found in the earlier rounds; but depending on what your scouting has dug up and what the board shows, your sometimes better off trading back, not just with regards to depth, but even finding top-end NFL players. It varies widely by situation.


So I trust in Ted's crew more than other team's draft teams is that a crime? Naturally I am speaking in general terms. Even the great Ted can fail when he is working a trade. Thing is people don't get as excited if he were to trade down than to trade up and it not work out. You have more picks so if the 3rd round pick is a bust and the 5th round pick is great many people would tend to give him a pass. They would over look the fact that he could have still had the pick without the trade.
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