A coworker and I decided to try to predict the first 5 Quarterbacks picked in the draft this year, and the order they are drafted in. We aren't trying to guess the exact picks or teams, just in what order the top 5 QBs fall off the board. I've discovered that this is a pretty overwhelming thing to try to predict (seeing as I have no idea who is targeting who, where), so I thought I'd ask if anybody here has any insights. Any advice?

Or if you just want to guess as well, feel free to list the first 5 QBs you think will be picked.

1) Blake Bortles texans

2) Derek Carr Raiders

3) Johnny Manzel Vikes

4) Teddy Bridgewater Browns

5) McCarron Jags


This I think is about right I think or flip vikes and Browns

I just posted an article on Johnny Manziel.

I would bet on him falling before Bridgewater. I also think Oakland could trade down from No. 5 and target Carr. The Browns could also be after him with their No. 26 pick.

Bortles to Houston seems likely. They sent the farm to watch his pro day. I think Bridgewater fits Minnesota well.

Bortles to Houston does seem pretty likely at the moment.

I'm thinking that Manziel will go off the boards next, because someone is going to fall in love with him.

Beyond those two is where it gets really tricky for me. I just cant get a good feel for where Carr, Bridgewater, McCarron, or Garoppolo will fall.

My most recent mock draft.

1. Blake Bortles to Houston
2. Johnny Manziel to Jacksonville
3. Teddy Bridgewater to Minnesota
4. Derek Carr to Cleveland

I would go with Jimmy Garoppolo in the second round to maybe Oakland. I could see Oakland trading into the first-round to select Carr and Cleveland trading back into round two to take Garoppolo.

I can't see Bortles going to Houston; I can't see any QB going to Houston except possibly Manziel, and with the first pick, that doesn't seem likely. I think they use the first pick for something else, and maybe grab one of the QBs with the first pick of the second round.

I think they desperately want to trade down. Bill O'Brien does things by the book. In other words, he's more Bill Parcells than he is Pete Carroll. I think that works against Johnny Manziel. It's going to take somebody who thinks outside the box to take Manziel. O'Brien isn't that guy. He's a traditionalist.

1. Bortles
2. Bridgewater
3. Manziel
4. Garrapolo
5. Carr

As we get closer to Draft Day, I'm having trouble deciding which way to go.
I like the idea of taking an order from before the Combine, Pro-Days, and workouts. Something like this:

1 Blake Bortles
2 Teddy Bridgewater
3 Derek Carr
4 Johnny Manziel
5 Jimmy Garoppolo
Ending the run in the mid-late second round.

On the other hand, I wonder how much the Pro-days and whatnot have influence teams. Who's fallen in love with who?
Manziel on the rise? Bridgewater falling? Oh well, who knows?

1 Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M (TEXANS)
2 Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida (JACKSONVILLE)
3 Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville (BROWNS)
4 Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State (VIKINGS)
5 Tom Savage, QB, Pittsburgh (RAIDERS)

Texans may not keep Manziel, but he will be the 1st QB drafted, if nobody trades up for the rights to Johhny Football then The Texans will have their man.

Bortles to Jacksonville is a good fit.

The Browns continue their never ending quest to draft a franchise QB.

As do The Vikings.

The Raiders take Savage, even though Jimmy Garoppolo and several more qb's are rated ahead of him, because they are the Raiders!!!!

Added Bonus:

The Packers grab David Fales, QB, San Jose State, with their 5th round comp pick.

Very bold. Even though I see 4 QBs going in the first round, I don't see them going in the top few picks. I think Houston will take one, but probably by trading back into the first round after taking Clowney first overall. Or maybe if they find a trade partner in the first 10 picks and trade out of first overall. Still though, get ready to see all of the reaches for QBs.

Bridgewater
Bortles
Manziel
Carr
Garroppolo

I'm not really buying that Bridgewater's stock is suddenly plummeting because of a weak pro day performance. I guess we'll see.

Blake Bortles
Derek Carr
Jimmy Garoppolo
Zach Mettenberger
A.J. McCarron

Everyone is going for the same guys more or less so I decided to put Mettenberger in just for the heck of it. I couldn't decide to take Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater out so I took them both out and stuck in McCarron too. Just to be different.

My QB Scouting Reports

It's not the order I think they'll go on draft day. It's simply my opinion (as an amateur) about their prospects. I've done every position like that. I intend to write something up for this site and post a Packer oriented version.

1) Manziel

2) Savage

3) Bortles

4) Carr

5) Murray

Good idea for a thread.

Tough to reply to, though.

1. Bortles, but not to Houston. Houston either trades down or drafts Robinson/Watkins. If no trade down, then to Jacksonville.

That's the easy part. Everything else is a crapshoot. Every quarterback except Bortles has issues that could lead to him falling to late in the first.

I'll go with:

2. Carr (have no idea to who).

3. Manziel. No idea where, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him still on the board at 21 or later. For all the "next Favre" hype, remember this: Favre himself was *not* a first round pick.

(Actually, this would be kind of cool for me, since Houston could then trade up to, say, #21 and the Packers could get the first pick in the second. And the "Trading down in '14" scenario would be live. Packer fans should want as many quarterbacks to drop as far as possible so dumbass teams like Cleveland, Houston, Oakland, et al to want to overpay in late first/early second to get one of them!!)

4. Someone else.

5. Someone else.

Addendum: For me this is a case where the order is both "order drafted" and "order of relative value".

I'm so glad we have Aaron Rodgers. I wouldn't want to have to spend more than a mid-second on any of them except Bortles and, maybe, Carr.

Though it is a bit different than the order I would assign the players to value-wise, this is the order I have finally selected for the top 5 QBs to be drafted:

1 Blake Bortles
2 Johnny Manziel
3 Derek Carr
4 Teddy Bridgewater
5 Jimmy Garoppolo (pick #38)

Cant wait to see how this draft pans out!