Odds were in Green Bay's favor for win

nerdmann
Premier Member Topic Starter

9 years ago

The Packers were in control of their NFC Championship Game with the Seattle Seahawks throughout the second half Sunday. And according to ProFootballReference.com, the Packers' chances of winning ranged between 94.4% at halftime and 99.9% with 3:07 remaining.

JSOnline wrote:

So from a purely analytical standpoint, what is more likely?

This 13-sigma outlier, or this team purposely taking a dive? Let's just ignore Burnett downing the INT with a wide open field in front of him as if he was terrifed that the Packers would get too far ahead, and look strictly, dispassionately at the numbers.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

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Dulak
Veteran Member

9 years ago

Originally Posted by: nerdmann

Ouch, that hurts even more looking at those odds.

I had a fair amount of dough on the packers to win the SB also ...

PackFanWithTwins
Veteran Member

9 years ago

What are the odds of a team taking a dive driving to score a game tying FG?

The world needs ditch diggers too Danny!!!

nerdmann
Premier Member Topic Starter

9 years ago

What are the odds of a team taking a dive driving to score a game tying FG?

Originally Posted by: PackFanWithTwins

I don't know, but they sure made it look easy. Right up until they got to about the 35. Suddenly, BAM! Nothing could be more difficult.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

Rockmolder
Honored Member

9 years ago

Originally Posted by: nerdmann

This one's way too obvious to be a dive.

If the odds are 99.9% in our favour, there's still a 0.01% chance we'll lose. I guess this was that one in a thousand game.

nerdmann
Premier Member Topic Starter

9 years ago

This one's way too obvious to be a dive.

If the odds are 99.9% in our favour, there's still a 0.01% chance we'll lose. I guess this was that one in a thousand game.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder

If you look at this team's history, it's really not that much of an outlier. Julio Jones was doing the same thing to us, that's the example I use, but it is one of many.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

Cheesey
Preferred Member

9 years ago

I don't believe for a second that they took a dive.
I DO believe that they felt they had the game won, and stopped doing what got them the lead to that point in the game.

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