sschind
  • sschind
  • Senior Member Topic Starter
9 years ago
...for Randall Cobb?

I think we all agree that we want Cobb back, we just disagree on how much we should pay him. A lot of people are willing to say "we shouldn't overpay" which I think a lot of us agree with, but far fewer seem to be willing to throw out a number they would be willing to pay.

If you are one of those who thinks the position should dictate the salary more than the production how much would you pay arguably the best slot receiver in the game?

If you are one of those who thinks the #2 WR deserves to be paid a lot less that the #1 WR so you don't hurt the #1's feelings and upset things in the locker room how much would you pay for one of the best #2 WRs in the game?

If you are one of those who thinks paying 18-20 million a year for 2800 yards and 25 TDs is too much how much would you be willing to pay to keep one of the top 5 pass catching duos in the game?

For me that number would be around 10 million maybe a bit more (10.2, 10.3 maybe even stretch it to 10.5 depending on the other offers, structure, guarantees, who made it etc.) Truthfully, I think we could even work 12 into our cap without killing it (especially if we could get a 5 year deal) but I honestly would not want to do that. I don't think it would kill the cap to the extent we would have to starting cutting players we want just to stay under the cap (like the Saints have to do which would be my definition of killing the cap) but it could limit future additions and retention.

I base my opinion on the following, in no particular order

A) He is young and I have seen nothing that would indicate he will not continue at this level for many more years.

B) By signing him you keep an already dangerous duo intact and keep our WR group intact for at least 2 more years which will allow us to concentrate our efforts on improving other areas. If we keep him we can still draft a promising WR if one is available but we won't be forced to address the issue.

C) I think we can afford to keep him and not have any negative impact on our salary cap situation. It would be a difference of maybe 2 million dollars a year tops and I think pretty much any team could fit that into their cap for a player of Cobb's caliber. Where do I come up with 2 million you ask? If the Packers are willing and able to work 8 (or even 9) into their cap they can work in 10 (or 11)

D) I don't think signing him for that would impact our ability to keep Bulaga which some people deem even more important (and I wouldn't argue) or House.

E) I don't think it sets any sort of precedent that we are willing to let other teams run our salary cap (because I don't think it does that) or makes Jordy feel slighted in any way because he made his choice last year.

F) I think it strengthens Teds mantra of draft and develop and tells young players that the Packers will take care of you if you produce.

G) It won't set any negative precedent with other players who will think all they need to do is play hardball because players of Cobb's caliber do not come around every year and as long as Ted keeps making cuts to players like Hawk and Jones it tells players that if you don' produce you will be gone. This goes hand in hand with F.

H)lastly, and this is a small factor admittedly but it is a factor, by signing him we keep him away from potential competitors. If he gets a big offer from Jacksonville or Oakland maybe this won't be a huge factor as we will likely see him only once in the contracts lifetime but if he goes to Seattle or the 49ers or the Bears or vikings or even the Patriots or Colts (SB) it could factor in.

So there it is. What I would be willing to pay Randall Cobb and the reasons why. If you like feel free to add what you would be willing to pay and if you like please feel free to say why he should get that much or why we should only pay so much.
Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member
9 years ago
Great post!

I'm not sure how much is too much. I do believe that expecting to easily or regularly getting players for less than what the market suggests is their value is a long-run recipe for something less than market dominance.

But I have no idea what that market is right now.

Real success isn't about being able to get your resources on the cheap. Its about getting the highest return. And, usually, that means getting the best from the best resources you can get your hands on.
And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
Zero2Cool
9 years ago
I think there is too much focus on replacing the player, instead of the production. As for how much is too much, it depends on how the contract is structured. In an earlier post from a few weeks ago I laid out what I felt was reasonable. I would say anything more than 30% of that would be too much.

If they let him go and go into the season with more than $15 million under the cap, I will be a bit disappointed.
UserPostedImage
steveishere
9 years ago
I don't know what too much would be because you could even sign him for 13m/year and still get good production out of him because he's a good player and this is a team/system/qb that he'll always be productive with. To me 9/10/11 million a year is hard to stomach though for a player who is going to be our 2nd option as a receiver and 3rd option in the offense as a whole. Paying that much for Cobb is acceptable but it'll never really be a good deal. Especially when you look at other productive players like Pierre Garcon, Eric Decker, Emmanuel Sanders, Desean Jackson, Golden Tate all signing for less than 9 a year.

I won't lose any sleep if we gave him 10 a year but it's also not going to upset me if we don't pay him that much to stay. I personally would offer 8 or 9 and let him walk if that's not good enough.
QCHuskerFan
9 years ago
32-34M for a 4 yr contract. 27-29M for a 3 yr deal. 50% guaranteed in signing bonus.
Yerko
9 years ago

...for Randall Cobb?
H)lastly, and this is a small factor admittedly but it is a factor, by signing him we keep him away from potential competitors. If he gets a big offer from Jacksonville or Oakland maybe this won't be a huge factor as we will likely see him only once in the contracts lifetime but if he goes to Seattle or the 49ers or the Bears or vikings or even the Patriots or Colts (SB) it could factor in.

Originally Posted by: sschind 



With the Bears trading Marshall, it wouldn't surprise me if they were one of the teams that would try to make a run at Cobb. That would not be good.
UserPostedImage
TheKanataThrilla
9 years ago
Obviously $12M is too much or we would have franchised him.

To me I am happy if he gets as much as Nelson. After that I start thinking it is too much.
Zero2Cool
9 years ago

Obviously $12M is too much or we would have franchised him.

To me I am happy if he gets as much as Nelson. After that I start thinking it is too much.

Originally Posted by: TheKanataThrilla 


This is an excellent point because the WR franchise tag was set to be $12.71 and only Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas got the franchise for WR's. Both have been more consistent with their production than Randall Cobb has throughout his career.

By Cobb's own admission (prior to this last season), he didn't do enough to earn a big time contract.
2011: 15 games, 25 catches for 375 yards with 1 TD
2012: 15 games, 80 catches for 954 yards with 8 TD
2013: 6 games, 31 catches for 433 yards with 4 TD
2014: 16 games, 91 catches for 1,287 yards with 12 TD

He's been up and down during his four seasons in the NFL.









UserPostedImage
sschind
  • sschind
  • Senior Member Topic Starter
9 years ago

This is an excellent point because the WR franchise tag was set to be $12.71 and only Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas got the franchise for WR's. Both have been more consistent with their production than Randall Cobb has throughout his career.

By Cobb's own admission (prior to this last season), he didn't do enough to earn a big time contract.
2011: 15 games, 25 catches for 375 yards with 1 TD
2012: 15 games, 80 catches for 954 yards with 8 TD
2013: 6 games, 31 catches for 433 yards with 4 TD
2014: 16 games, 91 catches for 1,287 yards with 12 TD

He's been up and down during his four seasons in the NFL.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 




Rather than up and down I would say he has been consistently improving. Aside from the injury in 2013 he has done nothing but improve on his numbers from the previous seasons. Heck, even if you extrapolate his numbers from 2013 into a 16 game season his numbers are right on the money (82,1154,10)

Besides, you know as well as I do it's more what you did last season than what you did in any before.
buckeyepackfan
9 years ago
Offer him a 5yr deal.
48 mil
10 mil signing bonus.
Another 15 guaranteed.
2015 base 2mil
2016 base 3mil
2017 base 5mil
2018 base 7mil
2019 base 11mil
Fair deal cap friendly 1st 3 years.
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