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earthquake  
#1 Posted : Tuesday, April 16, 2019 10:34:38 PM(UTC)
With Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson signing record contracts in the last couple years, we've seen a lot of hand wringing over how much QBs are making. If we squint at the raw figures, it sure seems like a lot - but the cap has gone up quite a bit in the last 10 years, so are these contracts really out of line?

I took a deep dive into the cap hit for the starting QBs for the winning and losing super bowl teams for the last 10 years. Check out the data here: https://docs.google.com/...ZRS05lg/edit?usp=sharing

Notable highlights:

4/10 SB winners had cap hits of over 10%. Only 1 had a cap hit below 6.6%.

The average cap space for all QBs that played in the super bowl was 8.6%. Only 5/20 had cap percentages below 5% - Russell Wilson twice, Jared Goff, and two QBs that started the season as backups: Colin Kaepernick & Nick Foles. Nick Foles' cap hit skyrocketed the next year due to the way his contract was structured.

80% of the QBs had a hit of at least 4.3%. Half had a cap hit over 10% (there was an even split between the winners and losers).

Super Bowl losing QBs were paid slightly more (9.1% vs 8.1%).

Tom Brady had the highest cap hit for winning QBs with 12.4 in 2018. Peyton Manning had the highest for the losers with 17.2% (!).

So, let's look at some myths.

QBs are making too much money these days, you can't win with one player taking up so much cap space.

This is demonstrably false. In fact, most teams that win or get to the super bowl devote a big chunk of the cap to their QB. Teams with elite QBs tend to win super bowls. Additionally, paying a lot of money to franchise QBs is nothing new, as is clearly evident in the data. The cap goes up, salaries go up, it's as simple as that.

The new trend is cheap QBs on rookie contracts.

The only example of a QB on a rookie contract winning the SB since the new rookie wage scale took effect is Russell Wilson, who had an especially low cap number being taken in the 3rd round. This is an aberration, not a trend, and has been corrected with Wilson's 2nd and 3rd contracts. Had the Rams won last year, Goff got paid 7.6 million dollars, cheap for elite QBs, but not exactly a bargain basement contract.

The Eagles sort of qualify here as well, given that Carson Wentz was their starter, and they didn't pay Nick Foles much since he was the backup. However, this is a pretty odd situation that is unlikely to be repeated in the near future.

Aaron Rodger's new contract is totally crazy and the Packers are screwed.

Aaron Rodger's cap hit was 11.3% last year. This is par for the course for an elite QB, and half of the QBs who made it to the SB in the last 10 years had a similar cap hit. I'm not sure what his cap hit will be in the next few years, and certainly, if he starts to suck it will look bad, but so far it looks like the going market rate rather than any sort of extravagance.
User is suspended until 11/13/2019 2:16:46 PM(UTC) Smokey  
#2 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 1:22:18 AM(UTC)
People are worth whatever someone is willing to pay them. If someone is willing to pay another 1 million dollars to dig a ditch, that is what the digger is worth. If a team pays a lot for a player, they should realise that that players portion of the overall pie lessens the amount left to pay others. The value of an all star Pitcher or a QB or Hockey Goalie can extend beyond just a roster. A great player can put fans in the seats, sell jerseys/team products, as well as elevate the play of their fellow teammates.

Is it right to pay people large amounts of money, they would not do it if they thought it was a poor investment.
buckeyepackfan  
#3 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 3:49:45 AM(UTC)
"Aaron Rodger's new contract is totally crazy and the Packers are screwed."
.Well I guess there is no reason to watch the next 4 years.

The NFL wants parody

The salary cap is in place to create parody.

Teams are not suppose to make the playoffs more than 5 years in a row.

The NFL likes it when there is an average of a 6 team turnover every year in the playoffs.

I remember when Brett Favre signed his 100mil contract.
He was the highest paid player for about a week.
Drew Bledsoe signed his contract eclipsing Favre's
You can't blame the players, the money is there

The Packers still had plenty of room to sign 4 solid FA's

I think there is a 50/50 chance Aaron plays out this contract in Green Bay.

Some desparate team will spend the house on him in a couple of years.

This is todays NFL.
Zero2Cool  
#4 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 5:21:45 AM(UTC)
I think players union is failing the players by allowing these massive contracts without having a massive pension plan with insurance for retired players. With how much the NFL brings in annually, there is absolutely no reason any NFL player (of certain amount of playing years) should have issues with medical costs of any kind during their life time. The players union should demand 10% at least put away into a pension of some sort for retired players. And that 10% gets split between owners and players portions, five percent each.
nerdmann  
#5 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 6:32:52 AM(UTC)
Brady doesn't constantly demand enormous pay. How's his team working out? I heard they were pretty good. Cool
earthquake  
#6 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 7:03:27 AM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
Brady doesn't constantly demand enormous pay. How's his team working out? I heard they were pretty good. Cool


This is somewhat of a misnomer. It's true that Tom Brady has rarely been the highest paid player. But he's generally among the highest paid, and his 4 trips to the SB in the last 10 years have come at above average cap hits vs the other QBs who have made it to the game.

So while Brady may be willing to forgo the extra cash he could make on the open market to stay in NE and win more SBs, the fact remains that he takes a big chunk of NE's cap, and they still manage to win. Again, the highest cap hit for a SB winning QB in the last 10 years was paid to... drum roll please... Tom Brady.

Let's look at the numbers for Rodgers VS Brady. Brady is only under contract for 2019, so we can't compare future earnings, so let's look at the last 3 years:

Rodgers:
2017: 20.3m
2018: 20.9m
2019: 26.5m
Total: 67.7m

Brady:
2017: 14m
2018: 22m
2019: 27m
Total: 63m

Brady's "team friendly" contract here means NE devoted 4.7m less over 3 years, or 1.5m a year. That might get you a journeyman backup guard or a couple UDFAs in today's market, hardly the sort of cap savings that will make or break a team.

Rodger's number jumps to 32.6m next year, which seems somewhat high, but we'll have to wait and see what the cap is. If Brady decides to sign another contract, it's a safe bet that his salary will go up as well.
nerdmann  
#7 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 7:41:50 AM(UTC)
earthquake said: Go to Quoted Post
This is somewhat of a misnomer. It's true that Tom Brady has rarely been the highest paid player. But he's generally among the highest paid, and his 4 trips to the SB in the last 10 years have come at above average cap hits vs the other QBs who have made it to the game.

So while Brady may be willing to forgo the extra cash he could make on the open market to stay in NE and win more SBs, the fact remains that he takes a big chunk of NE's cap, and they still manage to win.

Let's look at the numbers for Rodgers VS Brady. Brady is only under contract for 2019, so we can't compare future earnings, so let's look at the last 3 years:

Rodgers:
2017: 20.3m
2018: 20.9m
2019: 26.5m
Total: 67.7m

Brady:
2017: 14m
2018: 22m
2019: 27m
Total: 63m

Brady's "team friendly" contract here means NE devoted 4.7m less over 3 years, or 1.5m a year. That might get you a journeyman backup guard or a couple UDFAs in today's market, hardly the sort of cap savings that will make or break a team.

Rodger's number jumps to 32.6m next year, which seems somewhat high, but we'll have to wait and see what the cap is. If Brady decides to sign another contract, it's a safe bet that his salary will go up as well.

He moves money around as needed tho. It's not just the raw numbers.
earthquake  
#8 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 7:45:29 AM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
He moves money around as needed tho. It's not just the raw numbers.


Can you provide specific examples here?

And who is to say Rodgers will not be willing to do the same? He was playing on a below market contract for a while so there wasn't really a need to do so. But with him taking a bigger chunk of the cap these days (and into the future) it's certainly possible that we will see similar moves.
Fitness  
#9 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 8:06:10 AM(UTC)
How could anyone know whether or not Rodgers would be unwilling to adjust his pay? The assertion that he would not is unverifiable. Further, if I were Rodgers, I would only agree to do it with and for whom I thought would really help.

And please don't default to the "he is running the team" argument....its his contract, therefore his money to spend.
nerdmann  
#10 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 8:51:46 AM(UTC)
Fitness said: Go to Quoted Post
How could anyone know whether or not Rodgers would be unwilling to adjust his pay? The assertion that he would not is unverifiable. Further, if I were Rodgers, I would only agree to do it with and for whom I thought would really help.

And please don't default to the "he is running the team" argument....its his contract, therefore his money to spend.


Has he done so yet?
Cheesey  
#11 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 8:52:50 AM(UTC)
I don’t care about how much they make, other then how it forces average people to not be able to go and see a game live.
Only people that make a lot of money can afford to take their kids to a game.
Many people would LOVE to go see a game at Lambeau, but can’t swing that kind of cash.
When you have to pay ridiculous amounts of money for even a lousy hot dog and soda, it prices out the average fan.
I was 25 before I got to see a game there, and it was preseason.
I just wish ALL Packer fans could get to experience that.
(End of rant)
buckeyepackfan  
#12 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 9:09:44 AM(UTC)
Cheesey said: Go to Quoted Post
I don’t care about how much they make, other then how it forces average people to not be able to go and see a game live.
Only people that make a lot of money can afford to take their kids to a game.
Many people would LOVE to go see a game at Lambeau, but can’t swing that kind of cash.
When you have to pay ridiculous amounts of money for even a lousy hot dog and soda, it prices out the average fan.
I was 25 before I got to see a game there, and it was preseason.
I just wish ALL Packer fans could get to experience that.
(End of rant)


You can't blame the players.
This is all TV and other outlets money.

The players aren't making the money, the owners would just keep it.

I've never been to a Packer game at Lambeau .

Depending on when Philly comes to Lambeau this year, I might be able to finally make the journey.
I will find out tonight!

Family night and open practices are for families to enjoy.

The rest is never going to be cheaper.
Cheesey  
#13 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 11:02:45 AM(UTC)
Buckeye, it all comes down to greed.
Whether it’s the players or owners, or both.
And that’s what is so sad.
I hope you do get to go to a game!
Back in I believe 1995, my wife sent me to the NFC title game in Dallas.
(We lost.....crap!)
Anyway, the plane ride there and back, bus to and from the stadium, a lunch at a local Dallas restaurant, and a ticket to the game, all for just over $500!
Can you imagine what it would cost today? I’ll never see anything like that again.
Fitness  
#14 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 11:42:34 AM(UTC)
Nerdmann said
Quote:
Has he done so yet?

Has he been asked yet?
Has he had conversations with management about specific players yet?
nerdmann  
#15 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 11:54:11 AM(UTC)
Fitness said: Go to Quoted Post
Nerdmann said
Has he been asked yet?
Has he had conversations with management about specific players yet?


I bet he wanted Jimmy Graham.
Zero2Cool  
#16 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 12:10:13 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
I bet he wanted Jimmy Graham.


I bet he didn't. I bet based on his comments regarding Dez Bryant, it didn't make much sense to him after release Jordy Nelson.
TheKanataThrilla  
#17 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 12:57:09 PM(UTC)
I don't get bitching about Aaron's salary when we had many years of Matthews, Cobb, Perry, Bulaga, etc. nowhere near earning their big salaries.. Yes Aaron makes a lot of money in our cap, but at least when he hasn't been injured he has been one of the best at the position.
sschind  
#18 Posted : Wednesday, April 17, 2019 1:47:32 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
Has he done so yet?


Its been a whole year since he signed the big contract. The Packers have not really been in a situation where they needed the cap space so they may not have asked him. Somehow I doubt Brady goes to Belichick and offers to move the money around. Its possible but my guess is the team asks first.

The easiest way for players to move money around to create cap space is by converting salary into bonuses that can be stretched out over a few years. Rodgers had a salary of 1.1 million last year as he does for the next two years. There is not a lot of room for moving money around there.

He does have rather large roster bonuses that may be able to be moved. His 13 million RB for 2019 is fully guaranteed and my guess is it has already been paid (most of them are due shortly after the start of the league year) so I don't know if that can be messed with. His 2020 RB of 19.5 million was guaranteed on February 6th but it isn't due until March 15th of next year. They might be able to convert some of that to a signing bonus to stretch the hit out but that would put an even bigger cap hit on future years so you have to wonder if it is worth it.

I have no reason to doubt that Aaron Rodgers would be willing to move some of his money around to create cap space. Its not like he is giving up any of the money (Tom Brady never gave anything back) all that is changing may be when he gets it (usually they get it sooner if they convert salary to SB) and how it is accounted for.

Rockmolder  
#19 Posted : Monday, April 22, 2019 5:47:30 AM(UTC)
First of all, nice job Earthquake. Great analysis.

Secondly, again nice job Earthquake. The whole Brady taking a paycut for his team is getting tiresome. It's nearly always restructures which pay out the same but put the cap-hit in a different year. Not saying that it isn't a good thing he did, but like you said in this thread, it didn't make the kind of impact a lot of people like to think.

The common thought seems to be that the Brady gives the Pats another $ 10 million a year to play with. In reality he carries a $ 49 million cap hit over 2 years as a result of constantly pushing around the cap numbers.
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