Discussion Board
earthquake
2021-11-29T06:25:42Z
With a win today and a Vikings loss, the Packers currently have the biggest lead in any of the divisions, at +4 games vs the Vikings. Technically, it's +3.5, given the loss to the Vikings. The Bears are barely in it but can still technically win the division if they win all of their remaining games, the Packers lose all, and the Vikings lose two or lose one and the Bears get lucky with tie breakers. The Lions are already out.

Green Bay can clinch the division with (feel free to correct me if I've messed something up here - the 17 game season hurts my mind grapes):

- 3 wins
- 2 wins and 1 Vikings loss
- 1 win, 2 Vikings losses, and 1 Bears loss
- 0 wins, 3 Vikings losses, and 2 Bears losses
- If the Packers beat the Vikings and both teams end up with the same record, things get complicated as the Vikings have 5 conference games left

It looks like the Packers could clinch the division with a win over the Bears following the bye, provided the Vikings lose to the Lions (never say never) and the Steelers (short week, the Steelers have been up and down, who knows).

Upcoming games for the Packers and Vikings:

Packers:
Bears - 4-7
@Ravens - 8-3
Browns - 6-6
Vikings - 5-6
@Lions - 0-10-1
Combined opponent win %: 41%

That's looking like 2-3 at worst (Ravens, Browns, Vikings) which would mean 11-6

Vikings:
@Lions - 0-10-1
Steelers - 5-5-1
@Bears - 4-7
Rams - 7-4
@Packers - 9-3
Bears - 4-7
Combined opponent win %: 43%

3 away games vs division foes and the Steelers and Rams, 4-2 is probably the best the Vikings can do here, which means 9-8, potentially fighting for the last wildcard spot.

I'm too lazy to include the Bears - they still suck.
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earthquake
2021-12-05T22:03:05Z
Bye week has been good to the Packers, at least as far as winning the division goes. With the Vikings and Bears both losing, a Vikings loss and win over the Bears next week would clinch the division title for Green Bay.

As of now, the Bears at 4-8 could still technically win the division or secure a wildcard spot. To win the division, the Bears need to win all of their remaining games, the Packers need to lose all of theirs, and the Vikings would need to lose a couple of games too. With the Packers at 9-3, the worse they can finish is 9-8. A win over the Bears next week means the Bears can do no better than 8-9 and are not able to secure the division, but still mathematically in the hunt for a wildcard spot. Realistically though, the Bears probably need to win the division to get into the Playoffs.

The Vikings are in it as well at 5-7. If they win all but one of their games and the Packers lose all, or if they win all and the Packers lose all but one, the Vikings win the division. If the Packers and Vikings both win next week, the Vikings could potentially tie the Packers record. Currently the tie breaker goes to the Vikings. But with 5 weeks left the odds that everything falls in the Vikings favor are very low.

The Eagles are now 6-7 and if Philadelphia realizes that Gardner Minshew is a better QB than Jalen Hurts, the Vikings may struggle to keep pace with them in the wild card race. Washington is a scrappy contender for the last spot as well.

---

With a win for the Cardinals today the Packers are still in 2nd place for playoff seeding. Technically, they are tied with the Buccaneers who also won, but it looks like the Packers currently own some sort of tie breaker over them. With a Packers win and a Cardinals loss next week - vs the Rams which will likely be a tough division game - the Packers would be back to the #1 seed.

Upcoming games for top 3 seeds:

Arizona (10-2)
- Rams 7-4
- @ Lions 1-10-1
- Colts 7-6
- @ Cowboys 8-4
- Seahawks 3-8 (currently playing as of writing)
Combined opponent win %: 44%

Green Bay (9-3)
- Bears - 4-7
- @Ravens - 8-3
- Browns - 6-6
- Vikings - 5-6
- @Lions - 0-10-1
Combined opponent win %: 41%

Tampa Bay (9-3)
- Bills 7-4 (playing Monday)
- Saints 5-7
- @ Panthers 5-7
- @ Jets 3-9
- Panthers 5-7
Combined opponent win %: 42%

The Cardinals have the hardest remaining schedule, but could realistically win all of their remaining games, though only the Lions look like an easy win. The Rams, Colts, and Cowboys should give them the most trouble, but the Seahawks should put up a fight as well. With three matchups with likely playoff teams in their last five, the Cardinals could take a lot of momentum into the elimination content.

The Bucs could run the table as well, but the only easy win there is the Jets. They play the Bills and have 3 games vs scrappy division opponents that could go either way. Though with only one game left against a team with a winning record and question marks at QB for both the Saints and Panthers, I see a realistic path for the Buccaneers to win 4 or more of these games and take the #1 seed.
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earthquake
2021-12-14T04:22:24Z
The Vikings beat the Steelers so the Packer's haven't clinched anything yet. But another win or one Vikings loss is all that is needed to clinch the division and a playoff spot.

With the Cardinals losing tonight, all the Packers have to do is win out to secure the #1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Owning head-to-head tie breakers over the Cardinals and Rams as well as common opponent and conference record tie breakers over the Bucs, the Packers are in a good position.

The Bucs and Cowboys look likely to take their respective divisions. The Rams are in a good position to take the #5 seed and could still win the west. There is a log jam with 10 other teams still in the running for the final two spots.

https://www.nfl.com/standings/playoff-picture 
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nerdmann
2021-12-14T07:18:02Z
Originally Posted by: earthquake 

The Vikings beat the Steelers so the Packer's haven't clinched anything yet. But another win or one Vikings loss is all that is needed to clinch the division and a playoff spot.

With the Cardinals losing tonight, all the Packers have to do is win out to secure the #1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Owning head-to-head tie breakers over the Cardinals and Rams as well as common opponent and conference record tie breakers over the Bucs, the Packers are in a good position.

The Bucs and Cowboys look likely to take their respective divisions. The Rams are in a good position to take the #5 seed and could still win the west. There is a log jam with 10 other teams still in the running for the final two spots.

https://www.nfl.com/standings/playoff-picture 


We got time to stabilize ST. Let's see what Matt's got.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
earthquake
2021-12-15T23:51:49Z
Here we go (copy/pasted from PFT)

Green Bay clinches NFC North division title with:

GB win or tie OR
MIN loss or tie

Green Bay clinches playoff berth with:

NO loss or tie + SF loss OR
NO loss or tie + PHI-WAS tie OR
NO loss or tie + LAR loss + SF tie OR
SF loss + PHI-WAS tie OR
LAR loss + SF tie + PHI-WAS tie
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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
2021-12-16T04:09:14Z
just win baby
"Well, they might kill you, but they won’t eat you." Uncle Teddy
earthquake
2021-12-20T05:12:32Z
Another good week in the NFL. The Cardinals somehow lose to the Lions. The Saints sweep the Bucs. The Packers are one game up, effectively 2 games with tie breakers, over the Cards, Bucs, and Cowboys with 3 games left to play.

Oh yeah, the Packers have clinched the division and a playoff spot as well.
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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
2021-12-20T15:30:32Z
Originally Posted by: earthquake 

Another good week in the NFL. The Cardinals somehow lose to the Lions. The Saints sweep the Bucs. The Packers are one game up, effectively 2 games with tie breakers, over the Cards, Bucs, and Cowboys with 3 games left to play.

Oh yeah, the Packers have clinched the division and a playoff spot as well.



I don't think they hold the tie breaker vs the Cowboys. They are 8-1 in conference games. Pack 8-2. So if GB loses one more game, let's say it's the Browns so it is an AFC loss. The Boys have to win out to tie. If they do they will be 11-1 in NFC and Pack 10-2.
"Well, they might kill you, but they won’t eat you." Uncle Teddy
earthquake
2021-12-20T16:01:32Z
Originally Posted by: wpr 

I don't think they hold the tie breaker vs the Cowboys. They are 8-1 in conference games. Pack 8-2. So if GB loses one more game, let's say it's the Browns so it is an AFC loss. The Boys have to win out to tie. If they do they will be 11-1 in NFC and Pack 10-2.



Good point, you are correct. Though tie breakers get complicated with the Cowboys. Before conference record is considered it goes to division record (I’m not sure if this applies since they play in different divisions - Cowboys have a better division record at the moment), then common opponents, then conference record.

common opponents are:

Chiefs (both teams lose)
Washington (both teams win)
Vikings (Cowboys win, Packers lose)
Cardinals (Packers win, Cowboys haven’t played yet)

Packers: 2-2
Cowboys: 2-1

So the Cowboys have the tie breaker there it looks like too. However, the Cowboys play Washington again and the Packers play the Vikings again too, so that could flip - with Packers win over the Vikings and a Cowboys loss to Washington. The Cowboys also have a game against the Cardinals.

There may be scenarios where Bucs end the season with better tie breakers as well - I haven't looked into it that much.
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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
2021-12-20T16:28:13Z
Originally Posted by: earthquake 

Good point, you are correct. Though tie breakers get complicated with the Cowboys. Before conference record is considered it goes to division record (I’m not sure if this applies since they play in different divisions - Cowboys have a better division record at the moment), then common opponents, then conference record.

common opponents are:

Chiefs (both teams lose)
Washington (both teams win)
Vikings (Cowboys win, Packers lose)
Cardinals (Packers win, Cowboys haven’t played yet)

Packers: 2-2
Cowboys: 2-1

So the Cowboys have the tie breaker there it looks like too. However, the Cowboys play Washington again and the Packers play the Vikings again too, so that could flip - with Packers win over the Vikings and a Cowboys loss to Washington. The Cowboys also have a game against the Cardinals.

There may be scenarios where Bucs end the season with better tie breakers as well - I haven't looked into it that much.



You are correct that division games do not apply unless both team are in the same division. I was thinking conference games was the next qualifier not common opponents. My bad.

edit looking at common opp, And using the Dallas wins out and GB losing once.

KC GB 0-1 Dallas 0-1
Washington 1-0 2-0
Vikings 1-1 1-0
AZ 1-0 1-0
GB 3-2 Dallas 4-1
Dallas will win the tie breaker no matter which team GB would lose to. If it was MN GB would be 2-3 vs common opp. The other two games wouldn't effect the outcome.
"Well, they might kill you, but they won’t eat you." Uncle Teddy
macbob
2021-12-20T17:24:31Z
https://operations.nfl.c...tie-breaking-procedures/ 

The tiebreaking rules (wildcard, for outside division tiebreakers) have conference record above record against common opponents.

Edit: it's close to a moot point, if we end up tied with Dallas and tie on the conference record they'll likely still win on common opponents.
UserPostedImage
earthquake
2021-12-20T17:29:30Z
Originally Posted by: wpr 

You are correct that division games do not apply unless both team are in the same division. I was thinking conference games was the next qualifier not common opponents. My bad.

edit looking at common opp, And using the Dallas wins out and GB losing once.

KC GB 0-1 Dallas 0-1
Washington 1-0 2-0
Vikings 1-1 1-0
AZ 1-0 1-0
GB 3-2 Dallas 4-1
Dallas will win the tie breaker no matter which team GB would lose to. If it was MN GB would be 2-3 vs common opp. The other two games wouldn't effect the outcome.



Yeah that makes sense.

So the Packers have to win out unless the Cowboys lose at least one game. Luckily, Dallas plays Washington, Arizona, and Philly the next three weeks and Washington is in must win to have a chance mode, the Cardinals need to keep winning to stay ahead of the Rams for the division title, and the Eagles could theoretically be playing for a playoff spot in week 18 (they have 4 remaining games, all within the NFC east).

If the Packers win their next two, and the Cowboys lose one of their next two, I believe the Packers will head into the Lions game with the #1 seed clinched, and effectively have two weeks of rest for their starters (I assume they'll treat the Lions game like a preseason game in this case). But I'm not sure if the Bucs can finish in a way that would give them the tie breaker. Arizona shouldn't be able to with the head to head loss to the Packers
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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
2021-12-20T20:01:04Z
Agreed. Dallas, like Green Bay, has struggled over the years with divisional opponents. There is a chance that either Washington or Phillie take them down. Just like there is a chance that Minney or Detroit plays the packers tough. Should prove to be interesting.
I like the Packer's odds playing Cleveland at home on Saturday after they play today. It's a really short week for them. The down side is a lot of their players are getting a bye week this week so there's that too.
"Well, they might kill you, but they won’t eat you." Uncle Teddy
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