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IronMan  
#21 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 1:30:27 AM(UTC)
I'm in!
Nonstopdrivel  
#22 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 7:13:08 PM(UTC)
Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.
Zero2Cool  
#23 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 8:05:30 PM(UTC)
Wow, nearly 20 ... keep'em coming ... pussies. :)
TheEngineer  
#24 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 12:11:19 AM(UTC)
" said: Go to Quoted Post
Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.


That's because the left column is the favourites and the right is the underdogs!
djcubez  
#25 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 1:23:12 AM(UTC)
" said: Go to Quoted Post
" said: Go to Quoted Post
Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.


That's because the left column is the favourites and the right is the underdogs!

Yea, no reason for underdog picks in the first week, nobody really knows what's up.
Nonstopdrivel  
#26 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 1:52:20 AM(UTC)
Last year I read an article (it might have been Gregg Easterbrook's "Tuesday Morning Quarterback" -- I can't remember) in which it was stated that over the course of the entire season, the following simple system has beaten the picks of virtually every pundit out there. For every game:

1) Pick the team with the better record.

2) In case of a tie, pick the home team.

Sounds oversimplified, and it is, but the beauty of it is it plays the odds, doesn't overthink the nuances, and doesn't jump on bandwagons.

Obviously, this isn't an optimal strategy for week 1, when you have no prior information, but its success improves dramatically as the season progresses.

If I remember correctly, no pundit in the past few years has exceeded a 70% correct pick rate, and I don't think many get above 60%. Some of the most famous score an abysmal 25% or less! The strategy above is rarely beat by more than one nationally known pundit.
Nonstopdrivel  
#27 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 1:47:46 AM(UTC)
So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?
djcubez  
#28 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 5:49:49 AM(UTC)
" said: Go to Quoted Post
So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?

My roommate is in a $50 pool every week with his family and he got it this week with his Denver over Cincinatti pick. I was actually close to picking San Francisco over Arizona just because I thought Mike Singletary is really changing the culture over there. I didn't do it though :/
Rockmolder  
#29 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 6:41:18 AM(UTC)
" said: Go to Quoted Post
So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?


I went Cinci over Denver. So did the Ninja and beingBOILEDhurts (Forgot who you are).

The one pick that everyone got wrong was, like you said, 49ers over Arizona. Shouldn't have taken that gamble on Miami, though. They got their ass handed to them by the Falcons.

Don't know if you found it, but you can see everyone's previous picks here.

http://football.fantasys.../22111/grouppicks?week=1
Zero2Cool  
#30 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 9:50:06 AM(UTC)
DOMINATION!!
Packers_Finland  
#31 Posted : Wednesday, September 23, 2009 7:59:25 AM(UTC)
A make or break week coming up. I'm predicting a lot of upsets, I hope it pays off (though it likely won't).
Rockmolder  
#32 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:12:48 PM(UTC)
" said: Go to Quoted Post
A make or break week coming up. I'm predicting a lot of upsets, I hope it pays off (though it likely won't).


10 out of 16 incorrect. Ouch.

So, Green Bay or Minnesota, people?
Nonstopdrivel  
#33 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:27:51 PM(UTC)
My algorithm forces me to pick Minnesota, sadly. Better record AND at home.
Nonstopdrivel  
#34 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:42:01 PM(UTC)
My current record in the Pick'em league is 33-15 (.688), 4 points behind the league leader Rockmolder and a mere 1 point ahead of MassPackerFan's Random Guesses.

I'd like to know what THAT says about the state of the NFL these days. ;)
Packers_Finland  
#35 Posted : Sunday, October 4, 2009 11:53:30 AM(UTC)
I was right up there in at the top of the board until last week, which went as bad as possible. 6-10. What the fuck?

I'm predicting Green Bay this week.
MassPackersFan  
#36 Posted : Monday, January 4, 2010 5:57:33 PM(UTC)
Woot woot
TheEngineer  
#37 Posted : Tuesday, January 5, 2010 1:43:29 AM(UTC)
Congrats MassPackersFan. Lost by 3 points after missing an entire week (week 10) :(
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uffda udfa (16-Nov) : Aaron Rodgers takes snaps in practice from trainer today.
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