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Offline wpr  
#31 Posted : Thursday, July 7, 2011 9:45:59 PM(UTC)
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mi_keys said: Go to Quoted Post
Though I don't think you took it this way it was nothing personal, I just disagree with you on this issue. Wind is part of the game (unless you're a pansy from Minnesota and you play indoors). Kickers are supposed to compensate for the elements. If they fail to do so it is on them. Odds are if weather was a factor it was a factor for both teams for most if not all of the game. How often has a bird been struck by a field goal or extra point? How often have animals in general significantly impacted the outcome of an important play?


I know kickers judge for the wind. My point was even when they watch, an unexpected gust can come up. If there is no breeze and one comes up after the ball is in flight how can he compensate for it? Just bad luck. (not skill)

As far as I know in the recent past no animals have been harmed in the playing of a game. My point once again is to say it is POSSIBLE (not probable) that a team can wind up in OT without blowing just as many chances at the other team. But even if they do, so what? They put on their jocks and they take their chances every week. Their big boys.


mi_keys said: Go to Quoted Post

How? Who calls the toss is irrelevant. They have a 50% chance of being right. There is no strategy or ability involved in a coin toss. The away team is just as likely to win the coin toss if they call it as they would be if the home team called it. Coin tosses are a "non-football event" insomuch as they are irrelevant to any skill, attribute, quality, or thought process you would develop from playing the game. The two teams could just as easily play rock, paper, scissors at the start of a game to decide who kicks off and it would not have the slightest impact on the game of football. If you lined up Clay Matthews with a 1st grader at a local elementary school and had them play 1,000,000 games of coin toss they would split the series at about 50%. That would not be true for anything else in football.


Except for in overtime, with sudden death, the team that gets possession of the ball first has an inherent advantage. This is born out in the statistics. According to an article from advanced NFL stats, during 2000-2007 teams that won the coin toss won 60% of the time (compared to home teams only winning 51% of overtime games). That number seems about right given what I remember being cited just about every time a game goes to overtime.


You are really complaining about a 9.8% difference aren't you?
Quote:
According to the statistics examined by the committee, teams that won the coin toss at the start of overtime games won 59.8 percent of the time since ’94. Further, the team that won the coin toss won 34.4 percent of the time on its first possession.

Someone has to win and someone lose. 50-50. The team that gets the ball first wins 9.8% more often. AND IT WILL MOST LIKELY DECREASE WHEN THEY MOVE THE KICKOFF UP.
What they study does not factor in is the real stats. Was the visiting team actually the better team and thus should have won in regulation? Did one of the teams have a major injury during the game that impacted the outcome? Did the weather turn dramatically worse as the game progressed? There are a lot of other reasons for the receiving team to have won the game other than the won the coin toss.
Oh and by the way, who calls the toss is relevant, in your mind. As the team that wins the toss luckily wins the game. They have a higher than 50% chance of getting it the call right. Statistically speaking.

mi_keys said: Go to Quoted Post

For the team that wins the coin toss all they have to do is drive into field goal range and score (this hardly requires a collapse from the defense as you put it). For the team that losses the coin toss they have to stop the other team and then their offense has to come out and score (unless you have Al Harris, because he's just awesome).


That average kickoff is returned to somewhere around the 24 yard line. They have to get down to the opposing 35 yard line just to have an outside chance. Of course it is not asking them to gain 80 yards on 1 play but they have to sustain a drive and the defense is not stopping them. It is a collapse of sorts otherwise teams would do so every possession of every game.


mi_keys said: Go to Quoted Post

If both teams get stopped on their first possession then the team that won the coin toss gets the ball back and now they've had two chances to the other team's one. No matter how long this goes on the team that wins the toss will either have the same number of chances to score (if the other team scores) or one more chance to score (if they score).


yes the team gets the ball back and has 2 chances, how unfair. #-o My point. I don't care. Each team already got the ball in regulation.


mi_keys said: Go to Quoted Post

Since the team that wins the coin toss wins the game 60% of the time, that means on average they have had .6 more possessions per overtime game than the team that losses the toss. Or in other words, that's 74 more possessions for the teams that won the coin toss over the 124 overtime games from 2000-2007. That is NOT equitable.

life is not fair. I moved on. I can live with it. As I said fair is for peewee and HS. They are men.


mi_keys said: Go to Quoted Post

There's a huge difference between taking calculated risks and playing a game of chance. When you talk about jumping routes that comes down to the defensive back having studied game film on their opposition, knowing tendencies, and making a snap judgment effectively on what's the expected costs or gains to his decision. For instance, Tramon Williams' pick six against the Falcons this past year was a product of him recognizing the play from film study. He jumped the route, not knowing for certain he had the right read, but knowing the odds were heavily in his favor. He made a good decision which turned out to also be the right decision. He stacked the odds in his favor through his diligence in the film room and his ability to recognize key tells in Atlanta's offense. And as you've phrased it, misreading isn't even chance, it's making a mistake. It's the same thing for a quarterback and reading the defense for a timing route.

There is no analogous situation for a coin flip. You can't study film on it and make a better decision. There is no pattern to read and no way to improve your odds. It is pure chance.



ouch. You take one above average player and you equate every single Int attempt to someone who is as hard working as Williams was in his 4th season? That's harsh. Your very statement implies all the other players do the same and try to validate that there is no luck whatsoever involved. Only skill and hard work. Not a single player has misread a play jumped a route and caught a poorly thrown pass or a ball that was deflect to them in a spot they would not have been in, IF they were in proper coverage position? Interesting.

Let's say this, the GOOD ones do their work. They know tendencies. They deserve the credit for making the plays. Fine. I was not speaking of them. YOU said, in so many words, there is no luck involved in the NFL. Only skill. I pointed out that there is indeed "some" luck, "some" time and then made a general illustration hoping you would take it for what it was worth. There have been a few GB players in the past 10 years that made the INT and people were all happy about it. I looked at the play, thought the outcome was great but wished the guy had been in the right coverage/position when he made the pick. (Of course if he had been there would not have been a pick on that play but that is besides the point.) Those guys are not in GB nor are most of them in the NFL these days. But there are always a handful of them on most teams. Thus luck is a part of the game.

Let's change to a punt. There is some luck in how the ball bounces. the kicker has skill. He practices his kicks into the corner. He practices his kicks to the goal line. But there is some luck in getting the ball to bounce back ONE THIS SPECIFIC OCCASION instead of bouncing into the end zone.
What about the fumble that hits the ground and bounces back into the running backs arms? No luck? All skill?
There are a lot of other times when luck/chance come into play. I am too tired to mess with it any more. Luck/chance/skill/poor calls are all a part of the game. Nothing is even.

Anyway- The rules are what they are. I am satisfied you are not. If the owners decide that they want to be "fair" instead of simply breaking a tie and they resort to college or HS rules, you will be happy and I will feel it is one more way they have cheapened the game for the sake of PC.
On your next post you will win the discussion because I am just to tired to express my opinion any longer. So you win in OT. congratulations.
Offline Nonstopdrivel  
#32 Posted : Thursday, July 7, 2011 11:38:23 PM(UTC)
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How on earth would the game have been "cheapened"? How could making a situation more equitable ever be equated with cheapening it?

And if you don't think a 9.8% advantage is significant, you have clearly never played a game like poker, in which vast sums hinge on advantages and disadvantages much smaller than that. Players in many games -- including athletic sports -- would kill for an advantage that small. In powerlifting, for example, that could easily be the difference between victory and placing in the bottom quartile. In boxing, it would probably be the difference between being knocked out in the fourth round and sparring all the way to the twelfth.

A 9.8% advantage is huge.
Offline mi_keys  
#33 Posted : Thursday, July 7, 2011 11:43:50 PM(UTC)
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wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
I know kickers judge for the wind. My point was even when they watch, an unexpected gust can come up. If there is no breeze and one comes up after the ball is in flight how can he compensate for it? Just bad luck. (not skill)


I'd be willing to bet the number of times weather has changed so drastically and so unpredictably in the one to two seconds it takes for a ball to travel from the hold through the uprights is relatively small. When it does happen I'm guessing we didn't see 3 hours of no wind give way to a sudden gust at 30mph pick up the instant a kick was taken from a long enough distance for the wind to even effect the kick. I'm guessing it's during games when the wind has been swirling and all over the place all day long, in which case it probably effected both sides as I said before.


wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
You are really complaining about a 9.8% difference aren't you?


No, I'm "complaining" about roughly a 20 percentage point difference (59.8% compared to 40.2%). It's actually quite a significant number.

wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
The team that gets the ball first wins 9.8% more often. AND IT WILL MOST LIKELY DECREASE WHEN THEY MOVE THE KICKOFF UP.


No, they win 50% more often (6/4 = 1.5, not 1.1). And possibly, but we won't know that until we try it.

wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
What they study does not factor in is the real stats. Was the visiting team actually the better team and thus should have won in regulation? Did one of the teams have a major injury during the game that impacted the outcome? Did the weather turn dramatically worse as the game progressed? There are a lot of other reasons for the receiving team to have won the game other than the won the coin toss.


There were 124 overtime games during the 8 year period from 2000-2007. If that were a representative sample then there was a little more than 260 overtime games over the 17 year period you quoted. Since the coin toss has absolutely zero correlation with any of the above questions you asked, those variables should roughly balance out to zero over a sample that large.

wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
Oh and by the way, who calls the toss is relevant, in your mind. As the team that wins the toss luckily wins the game. They have a higher than 50% chance of getting it the call right. Statistically speaking.


I'm sorry, but how does the person calling a coin flip have higher than a 50% chance of getting a call right? At this point I'm beginning to think you must be on a wind-up. When you call a coin flip you have exactly a 50% chance of being right, no more, no less. So it's the same odds of winning if someone else calls it.


wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
That average kickoff is returned to somewhere around the 24 yard line. They have to get down to the opposing 35 yard line just to have an outside chance. Of course it is not asking them to gain 80 yards on 1 play but they have to sustain a drive and the defense is not stopping them. It is a collapse of sorts otherwise teams would do so every possession of every game.


I'm not going any further with this point. We're arguing over the semantics of what "collapsing" is for a defense which is a waste of time for both of us.


wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
yes the team gets the ball back and has 2 chances, how unfair. #-o My point. I don't care. Each team already got the ball in regulation.

life is not fair. I moved on. I can live with it. As I said fair is for peewee and HS. They are men.


Yes, not everything is fair. But if we can make something more fair without sacrificing anything else that is deserving of consideration, is that not better?


wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
ouch. You take one above average player and you equate every single Int attempt to someone who is as hard working as Williams was in his 4th season? That's harsh. Your very statement implies all the other players do the same and try to validate that there is no luck whatsoever involved. Only skill and hard work. Not a single player has misread a play jumped a route and caught a poorly thrown pass or a ball that was deflect to them in a spot they would not have been in, IF they were in proper coverage position? Interesting.


No, maybe I have not chosen my words as best I could in this thread but you have completely missed my point. The whole point about making reads and studying film is that there is strategy and hard work involved. That differs from a pure game of chance (such as a coin flip or what cards you draw or what color/number the ball lands on in roulette). Hard work, skill, and football intelligence will, on the whole, vastly outweigh luck in a football game.

wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
Let's say this, the GOOD ones do their work. They know tendencies. They deserve the credit for making the plays. Fine. I was not speaking of them. YOU said, in so many words, there is no luck involved in the NFL. Only skill. I pointed out that there is indeed "some" luck, "some" time and then made a general illustration hoping you would take it for what it was worth. There have been a few GB players in the past 10 years that made the INT and people were all happy about it. I looked at the play, thought the outcome was great but wished the guy had been in the right coverage/position when he made the pick. (Of course if he had been there would not have been a pick on that play but that is besides the point.) Those guys are not in GB nor are most of them in the NFL these days. But there are always a handful of them on most teams. Thus luck is a part of the game.

Let's change to a punt. There is some luck in how the ball bounces. the kicker has skill. He practices his kicks into the corner. He practices his kicks to the goal line. But there is some luck in getting the ball to bounce back ONE THIS SPECIFIC OCCASION instead of bouncing into the end zone.
What about the fumble that hits the ground and bounces back into the running backs arms? No luck? All skill?
There are a lot of other times when luck/chance come into play. I am too tired to mess with it any more. Luck/chance/skill/poor calls are all a part of the game. Nothing is even.


First, bad and mediocre players also do some work on learning tendencies, they're just not as good as say Tramon Williams at it.

Again, some of this is my poor choice in how to phrase things. I didn't say there was no luck. Calculated risks as I talked about by definition involve some luck. But the luck in football is significantly altered by the strategy, skill, awareness, preparation, and decision making of the players and coaches.

The luck in football is so inherently different from that involved in a coin toss where there is no preparation, skill, or strategy that can aid you. As such they cannot be compared.

Offline StoicFire  
#34 Posted : Friday, July 8, 2011 2:11:57 PM(UTC)
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I think that every suggested form of NFL overtime has its flaws.

Perhaps the most flawed of the bunch is the postseason rule that this article asks us to accept as a regular season rule as well.


"If a field goal is made on the first possession of overtime, the other team gains possession. If that team scores a touchdown, game over. If it kicks a field goal to tie, then the next team to score wins. The only way the game ends on the first possession is if that team scores a touchdown or if the defense forces a safety or returns a turnover for a score."


My biggest problem with this rule is that, much like the college rule, it presents us with several uncharted scenarios which don't occur during regulation game play. My least favorite being the scenario that occurs when the team that wins the toss scores a field goal on their first possession then kicks off to the opposing team. From here on out it is four-down territory (at least until field goal range) with no time constraint. Play calling may change dramatically on both sides of the ball in this still never-before-seen circumstance. And as much as I love our defense, I'd rather not have to see them keep opposing playoff offenses from accumulating 2.5 yds per play.

As much as sudden death overtime hurts when you're on the wrong end of it, I would still choose it over any overtime rule that introduces scenarios that would never occur during regulation football.
Offline Nonstopdrivel  
#35 Posted : Saturday, July 9, 2011 1:11:30 AM(UTC)
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Which I might consider a valid argument, if the current sudden-death rule did not have the exact same effect.
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mi_keys on 7/9/2011(UTC)
Offline porky88  
#36 Posted : Saturday, July 9, 2011 2:24:21 AM(UTC)
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Recently, many point out two obvious examples of why there should be different OT rules. The first being Chargers over Colts in a 09 Wildcard game and Saints over Vikings in 10 the NFC Championship. The argument is Peyton Manning and Brett Favre did not get a chance to win, so therefore, the system is flawed.

What opponents of the current system fail to point out is the Chargers drove down the field and scored to force overtime. In other words, Indianapolis had the lead late in the game. They failed to close. How is that unfair? They had as much a chance to win as San Diego.

Take the Saint/Viking game. Brett Favre never got the ball in OT, but OT should never have occurred. The Vikings had the ball with two minutes left and couldn't get into field goal range. Poor decision making by the QB and Brad Childress is why the Vikes were toast. It wasn't because of a coin flip that rewarded the Saints the ball in OT.

Even the example provided in the original post is flawed. If I recall correctly, Detroit drove down the field and tied that game up. Tampa Bay had a chance to win, but they let a third string QB tie the game. Then, they let a third string QB get into field goal range. Their defense gave up two field goals on back-to-back possessions. Everyone focuses on the offense, but 11 players play defense too.

Football is a game of many variables. The overtime system is just one. Frankly, there is no justification for blaming a loss on the coin toss unless you're Jerome Bettis. You can always point to several different plays throughout the course of a football game.
thanks Post received 1 applause.
wpr on 7/9/2011(UTC)
Offline Formo  
#37 Posted : Saturday, July 9, 2011 7:31:44 PM(UTC)
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porky88 said: Go to Quoted Post
Recently, many point out two obvious examples of why there should be different OT rules. The first being Chargers over Colts in a 09 Wildcard game and Saints over Vikings in 10 the NFC Championship. The argument is Peyton Manning and Brett Favre did not get a chance to win, so therefore, the system is flawed.

What opponents of the current system fail to point out is the Chargers drove down the field and scored to force overtime. In other words, Indianapolis had the lead late in the game. They failed to close. How is that unfair? They had as much a chance to win as San Diego.

Take the Saint/Viking game. Brett Favre never got the ball in OT, but OT should never have occurred. The Vikings had the ball with two minutes left and couldn't get into field goal range. Poor decision making by the QB and Brad Childress is why the Vikes were toast. It wasn't because of a coin flip that rewarded the Saints the ball in OT.

Even the example provided in the original post is flawed. If I recall correctly, Detroit drove down the field and tied that game up. Tampa Bay had a chance to win, but they let a third string QB tie the game. Then, they let a third string QB get into field goal range. Their defense gave up two field goals on back-to-back possessions. Everyone focuses on the offense, but 11 players play defense too.

Football is a game of many variables. The overtime system is just one. Frankly, there is no justification for blaming a loss on the coin toss unless you're Jerome Bettis. You can always point to several different plays throughout the course of a football game.


Read the whole thread and you'll see why your point is slightly flawed.
Offline porky88  
#38 Posted : Saturday, July 9, 2011 8:10:07 PM(UTC)
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Formo said: Go to Quoted Post
Read the whole thread and you'll see why your point is slightly flawed.


You guys have put the emphasis on offense. In today's culture, everything is offense, offense, and more offense. In actuality, defense plays a role too. Packer fans should know that because their last two postseason losses occurred because of plays made on defense.

The MIN/NO is the perfect example as why a coin toss does not dictate the outcome of a football game. If you watched that game and I know you did, the main factor in determining the outcome was not a coin toss. You can point to turnovers, coaching, and poor execution during the most critical junctures of that football game.

That is why the Saints went to the Super Bowl and not the Vikings.

In some ways, OT rules are comparable to poor officiating. Packer fans were quick to point out poor officiating in the Cardinal playoff game. There were some questionable calls throughout the game, but in the end, GB loss that game because their defense put Kurt Warner possibly into the Hall of Fame.

You cannot find one game where a coin toss determined the outcome with the exception of the Lion/Steeler Thanksgiving game and that was human error.

Losing the coin toss has become an excuse by coaches, fans, and players to overlook the other flaws that put them in position to lose.

If the Vikings were a superior team to the Saints, then they should have won the game when they had a chance. You say they didn’t have a chance in OT and I say they absolutely did. They could have forced a turnover or made a stop. They have 11 guys on defense too. The Cardinals made a play and once upon a time, the Packers did it to Matt Hasselbeck. Many teams rely on their defenses throughout the regular season. The Ravens and Steelers are the two most obvious answers. Nobody argues that, but when it comes to OT, people can't seem to fathom relying on your defense to make it happen.
Offline mi_keys  
#39 Posted : Saturday, July 9, 2011 10:15:37 PM(UTC)
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porky88 said: Go to Quoted Post
In some ways, OT rules are comparable to poor officiating.


Right, and if we could easily fix poor officiating we would.

In overtime games since 1994, the teams that win the coin toss are 50% more likely to win than the team that losses the coin toss. That's a bigger advantage than that of home field. There are likely upwards of 250 overtime games in that span. That is too large of a sample with too drastic of a difference to write it off as a fluke. There's also no other variable in football that has any correlation--positive or negative--with the coin flip. That makes me seriously doubt there is some hidden variable in that data set that would explain away the advantage of winning the coin flip.

Winning the coin toss under the current rules is a major advantage. All of the facts currently available to us support that claim.
Offline porky88  
#40 Posted : Saturday, July 9, 2011 10:38:39 PM(UTC)
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mi_keys said: Go to Quoted Post
Right, and if we could easily fix poor officiating we would.

In overtime games since 1994, the teams that win the coin toss are 50% more likely to win than the team that losses the coin toss. That's a bigger advantage than that of home field. There are likely upwards of 250 overtime games in that span. That is too large of a sample with too drastic of a difference to write it off as a fluke. There's also no other variable in football that has any correlation--positive or negative--with the coin flip. That makes me seriously doubt there is some hidden variable in that data set that would explain away the advantage of winning the coin flip.

Winning the coin toss under the current rules is a major advantage. All of the facts currently available to us support that claim.


The problem is you focus squarely on the coin toss. In every one of those games, there is a high probability that something bigger occurred that affected the outcome of the game. I say high probability because nobody here can remember each OT. If you lose in OT and squarely place the blame on a coin toss, you're not watching the same game I am watching. There are too many things happening at once for one event to dictate the outcome of the game.

Is the OT system perfect?

Absolutely not, which is not the argument I am making. I believe blaming the coin toss regardless of how much data you can find on the net to support your theory is sour grapes. The person in the article sounds like he has a pair of those.

I also don't agree with the idea that it is unfair. Football is an 11 on 11 sport. That is fair. You have an opportunity to stop them. Getting the ball at your 20-yard line and driving 50 yards to setup a 47-yard field goal is not an easy task for any offense. Is there an advantage? Yes, but the entire rules of the NFL give an advantage to offenses in general nowadays. I stand to bet that good defenses rise to the occasion more often than not. The teams that are screwed in overtime are the teams that buckle under pressure. Are there exceptions? Yes, because the system is not perfect, but neither is the game of football.

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