zombieslayer
11 years ago
Pack - I had a bunch of arguments:
1) Elite RBs are actually bad because they take money from other areas,
2) Rushing success has no bearing on a team's success,
3) Pass/run %

I didn't "concede" anything. I admit when I'm wrong. I was right about 1 and 2 and wrong about 3. I thought we could go more gung ho on pass %, but found the sweet spot is less than I thought, more high 50s than 65% which I wanted.

I know you just like to ruffle my feathers, but come on. Most of my arguments about running have been correct, and the NFL knows it. 🇹🇹 follows #1 and I bet you had I told him these 3 arguments 2 or 3 years ago back when I was making it, if it was behind closed doors, he'd agree with #1 and most likely #2.

And you all have to admit that not only is 🇲🇲 a pass first coach (despite what he tells the media), it generally works. If we become a team that runs in the 50s, we will lose. That crap doesn't work in today's NFL.

So if anything, I was WAY ahead of all of you because I said this years ago.
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2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. 🇹🇹 🇲🇲 🇦🇷
Zero2Cool
11 years ago
"Success" I feel is a relative term. Rushing Yards holds little to no bearing on winning is what I believe to be accurate. Rushing Attempts gaining any positive yards consistently I would have to imagine has a positive impact on the Passing game. Which in turn assists a higher Offensive QB Rating, which I believe Offensive / Defensive QB Rating differential holds a very direct bearing on winning/losing games.

Truth be told, there is no script to winning, other than scoring more points than the other team. If there were such a script, I can think of 32 teams that would be using it in the NFL, thus, nullifying said script's value.


I maintain as I said several times, pass 60, run 40 in terms of percentage yields the best outcome as it keeps the defense more honest than say 70/30 ratio.
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zombieslayer
11 years ago

"Success" I feel is a relative term. Rushing Yards holds little to no bearing on winning is what I believe to be accurate. Rushing Attempts gaining any positive yards consistently I would have to imagine has a positive impact on the Passing game. Which in turn assists a higher Offensive QB Rating, which I believe Offensive / Defensive QB Rating differential holds a very direct bearing on winning/losing games.

Truth be told, there is no script to winning, other than scoring more points than the other team. If there were such a script, I can think of 32 teams that would be using it in the NFL, thus, nullifying said script's value.


I maintain as I said several times, pass 60, run 40 in terms of percentage yields the best outcome as it keeps the defense more honest than say 70/30 ratio.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Yes, that's about right. And no, there is no script. But if you're a run, run, pass, punt team, you won't get far in today's NFL.

Now, this is ONLY one game, but if you look at GB vs Houston, we were definitely a pass first team and it worked. 37 passes vs 33 rushes was deceptive. 🇲🇲 called mostly pass plays until the game was completely sealed.

When we were up 35-17, 🇲🇲 had called (assuming Mike calls the plays and given that Aaron is allowed to change them at the line) 35 passes vs 21 rushes. The last 4 drives were just rushes (with 2 passes thrown in there) to eat the clock.

So it's obvious that in this specific game, going pass first worked. And this is credit that Pack93z fails to give me and 🇲🇲. I've said since 2007 that 🇲🇲 calls a game pretty much how I would have called it. He has become my favorite Packers coach that I've ever watched. By far. And that includes Mike Holmgren.

As for the word success, it only means one thing to me - winning SBs. Everything short of winning a SB is a less than successful season. We're the Packers, not the Vikings.
My man Donald Driver
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2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. 🇹🇹 🇲🇲 🇦🇷
Zero2Cool
11 years ago
I think it's more like 41 pass plays and 29 rush plays. I don't think the two runs by Aaron Rodgers were designed runs, and the two sacks were passing plays. One of Rodgers rushes were on a 3rd and 1, could be a run play??? 40 30?

58.6% pass
41.4% run

awfully close to my 60/40 ratio target


Packers actually lost time of possession in this game by 5 minutes too.


Edit, you can find this link in the check this out sticky too.
http://www.mortgageloancalculating.com/passer_rating_differential.html 

Packers leading the league in QB Rating differential ... uh oh NFL ... you fucked! I found that encouraging. I'm hoping it translates into #5, if you know what I mean.

Edit2, here's some links that support my theory on qb rating differential if you still don't believe me.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/08/03/defending-qb-rating/index.html 
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/70-years-nfl-stats-its-all-about-the-passing-game/8213/ 
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zombieslayer
11 years ago

I think it's more like 41 pass plays and 29 rush plays. I don't think the two runs by Aaron Rodgers were designed runs, and the two sacks were passing plays. One of Rodgers rushes were on a 3rd and 1, could be a run play??? 40 30?

58.6% pass
41.4% run

awfully close to my 60/40 ratio target


Packers actually lost time of possession in this game by 5 minutes too.


Edit, you can find this link in the check this out sticky too.
http://www.mortgageloancalculating.com/passer_rating_differential.html 

Packers leading the league in QB Rating differential ... uh oh NFL ... you fucked! I found that encouraging. I'm hoping it translates into #5, if you know what I mean.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Speaking of QB Rating differential (which may be THE stat that's closest to a team's success), I wonder what happened to Dexter_Sinister. He used to give us those updates.

And yeah, I know what you mean. Hope so too. 🙏
My man Donald Driver
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(thanks to Pack93z for the pic)
2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. 🇹🇹 🇲🇲 🇦🇷
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Zero2Cool (8h) : Chase Young to sign $13M contract with Saints
Zero2Cool (8h) : Yosh to Panthers what noooo. Wait he didn't do crap
wpr (18-Mar) : I say that he is technically HER BIL as he married her sister. I checked it out, he's considered my BIL as well. Sad.
Mucky Tundra (18-Mar) : wpr, I assume its your BIL via marriage to your wife? If so, I can figure out where the smarts in the family went ;)
wpr (18-Mar) : Mucky my B-I-L is Bare Stupid. I could write a book.
Mucky Tundra (18-Mar) : As a teenager in Rockford IL I would get heckled by adults in public for wearing GB gear
Mucky Tundra (18-Mar) : if you think the online ones are bad, try *living amongst* them
Mucky Tundra (18-Mar) : Never doubt wprs loyalty. Poor guy is surrounded by Bears fans in Northern IL
wpr (17-Mar) : pass Martha. Thanks for the invite though.
Martha Careful (17-Mar) : blog * as the same ugly Illinois colors were adopted by the Baer
Martha Careful (17-Mar) : WPR, perhaps you should be joining the Bears fans blog has the same ugly Illinois colors were adopted by the Bears
Mucky Tundra (17-Mar) : Ah a fellow U of Illinois hater. I can respect that though I imagine it's for different reasons
Zero2Cool (17-Mar) : BTW. I didn't catch the game. I just hate Illinois.
Mucky Tundra (17-Mar) : They're your Big Ten Chumps and you will like it!
Zero2Cool (17-Mar) : No, not for the record. Referee's handled that BS. Orange team was trash ass
Mucky Tundra (17-Mar) : *Your* Big Ten Chumps for the record
Zero2Cool (17-Mar) : No, not Big Ten Champs. IL is big ten CHUMPS
wpr (17-Mar) : Big Ten Champs
wpr (17-Mar) : !!!
wpr (17-Mar) : INI
wpr (17-Mar) : ILL
Martha Careful (17-Mar) : Wisconsin with an outstanding on in the men’s Big Ten basketball tournament. Let’s hope it continues in the NCAAs
Zero2Cool (17-Mar) : Almost like taking QB in 2020 even if you don't need one is good move.
Mucky Tundra (16-Mar) : 2021 QB Draft class looking like a real clunker
Mucky Tundra (16-Mar) : A conditional 6th rounder? I remember Bears fans arguing they'd get a day 2 pick at worst lol
dfosterf (16-Mar) : So I got the no extension part right and the have to wait on the CW physical wrong
Zero2Cool (16-Mar) : Bears are trading Justin Fields for a 2025 6th-round pick that goes to a 4th-round pick based on playtime, per sources.
Zero2Cool (16-Mar) : Former Packer Jarrett Bush opens Wisconsin’s first blow dry bar in Green Bay
dfosterf (16-Mar) : If the Bears are not doing a deal with Washington, they also cannot trade Fields until Williams physical with them. All hail Caleb Williams!
dfosterf (16-Mar) : The talent is undeniable, but the (advertised) haul is obscene.
dfosterf (16-Mar) : If the Bears are cutting a deal with the Commanders, in either scenario, cannot happen until williams passes a Commanders physical
dfosterf (16-Mar) : My guess is no to the Fields extension, but yes to the trade back with the Commanders.
dhazer (15-Mar) : I think the Bears do a Love extension and they will trade out of the 1st pick and take the haul
Martha Careful (15-Mar) : that might make sense
Zero2Cool (15-Mar) : Justin Fields to Steelers?
Zero2Cool (15-Mar) : Kenny Pickett. Eagles. Done.
Zero2Cool (15-Mar) : They can claim best two WR tandem.
Mucky Tundra (15-Mar) : Aaron Donald retiring
dhazer (15-Mar) : Campbell signing with 49ers
dhazer (15-Mar) : I love how the Bear Fans are now claiming they have the best skill players in the NFC North lol
Zero2Cool (15-Mar) : Vikings made a move to get a 2nd first round pick
Mucky Tundra (15-Mar) : That's a not a bad deal for the Bears
Zero2Cool (15-Mar) : Bears have traded for WR Keenan Allen sending Chargers a fourth rounder.
Martha Careful (15-Mar) : *signs
Martha Careful (14-Mar) : MLB Devon White science with the Eagles
Mucky Tundra (14-Mar) : But that was before FA started
Mucky Tundra (14-Mar) : Dhaze, I thought Kurls would be their #1 target when I read that he was an Amos comp (jack of all trades guy)
dhazer (14-Mar) : I would like to see the Packers target 2 more FA still available Kamren Curl Safety and Chase Young edge
Martha Careful (14-Mar) : wow...didn't see that coming
Zero2Cool (14-Mar) : AJ Dillon re-signing with Packers.
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