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MintBaconDrivel  
#1 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 1:28:47 AM(UTC)
LombardiAve said:
Chris Brown, author of 'The Essential Smart Football' and a contributor at ESPN's Grantland, wrote “it's understandable that most fans (and even many coaches) think of football plays in terms of the strict run-pass dichotomy.” To that point, teams usually only do one or the other well. One-dimensional franchises with predictable offenses aren't consistently [...]
nerdmann  
#2 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 1:37:30 AM(UTC)
For better or worse, this team is based on throwing deep, and doing so often. Having a running game will force defenses to 'respect the run," but that is really it's only function. Draw safeties up for run support, so Aaron can continue throwing deep.

This imho is a low percentage offensive philosophy, lacking in fundamentals. But it just might work, because of the players we have assembled. Freakiest show on Tundra.
yooperfan  
#3 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 2:03:54 AM(UTC)
Good article.
Mike McCarthy should read it.
steveishere  
#4 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 2:45:41 AM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
For better or worse, this team is based on throwing deep, and doing so often. Having a running game will force defenses to 'respect the run," but that is really it's only function. Draw safeties up for run support, so Aaron can continue throwing deep.

This imho is a low percentage offensive philosophy, lacking in fundamentals. But it just might work, because of the players we have assembled. Freakiest show on Tundra.


Not really it's primarily short passes to set up deep passing. They probably do less intermediate (11-20 yard) passes than the average but more in the short (behind LOS - 10 yard) and slightly more deep (20+) than average. If it was a "low percentage" offensive philosophy they wouldn't be one of the most efficient passing offenses in the league year after year but they are so you aren't making any sense.
nerdmann  
#5 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 2:54:59 AM(UTC)
Tell you one thing. If Arodge went down for a game or two, I'd feel WAY better with these RBs in the lineup with Graham Harrell.
User is suspended until 4/29/2043 11:56:55 PM(UTC) texaspackerbacker  
#6 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 6:33:28 AM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
For better or worse, this team is based on throwing deep, and doing so often. Having a running game will force defenses to 'respect the run," but that is really it's only function. Draw safeties up for run support, so Aaron can continue throwing deep.

This imho is a low percentage offensive philosophy, lacking in fundamentals. But it just might work, because of the players we have assembled. Freakiest show on Tundra.


I agree completely with your first paragraph analysis, but I disagree with your humble opinion in the second. I LIKE it like that. Some play action, a few screens, and of course short yardage, and at least the THREAT of grinding it out, but I'd hate to see the Packers go back to the team I saw for literally decades almost religiously run on first down about 95% of the time.
play2win  
#7 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 7:52:15 AM(UTC)
texaspackerbacker said: Go to Quoted Post
I agree completely with your first paragraph analysis, but I disagree with your humble opinion in the second. I LIKE it like that. Some play action, a few screens, and of course short yardage, and at least the THREAT of grinding it out, but I'd hate to see the Packers go back to the team I saw for literally decades almost religiously run on first down about 95% of the time.


The times have changed, along with the level of talent at RB.

I say, " bring it!" We are literally going to run on this NFL, one where defenses have been building in recent years to stop pass heavy attacks.

This is a perfect storm Ted and Mike are building in GB. Personally, I am very much looking forward to run plays on every down for an entire scoring drive. It will happen, and I can't wait to witness that first all run drive.

It would be foolish to not run based upon recollections of inferior play, scheme and personnel of long past history.

Our offense, on paper, is finally balanced. McCarthy still must make the most of that. How he uses this and how he prepares his staff and team will be crucial.

I'd say the real "balance" that will win us another championship is the balance of O and D improvements. The run heavy additions with the RBs and OL, along with what appear to be sound adds at WR and TE, along with the new faces on D, and important players returning from injury was JUST what the doctor ordered - on the personnel side.

Lets see what Mike does with this.
buckeyepackfan  
#8 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 8:08:15 AM(UTC)
Here are the stats from 2008-2012 +2003 & 1996

YEAR.....RUSH ATTMPTS.........AVG.........PASS COMPLETIONS..........AVG.

2012.............433..................3.9YDS..............374...........................7.8YDS
2011.............395..................3.9YDS..............376...........................9.3YDS
2010.............421..................3.8YDS..............352.........................13.8YDS
2009.............438..................4.3YDS..............357...........................8.1YDS
2008.............437..................4.1YDS..............343...........................7.5YDS

2003.............507..................5.0YDS..............310...........................7.1YDS
1996.............465..................4.0YDS..............328...........................7.2YDS

I added 2003 because that was the year The Packers dominated with the run game.
1996 was of course the other Superbowl year.

The "throwing deep" theory kind of goes up in smoke the last 2 year, funny Aaron's best(yds/per completion) year was 2010.

Hopefully with healthy RB's this year and a healthy O-line, yds per carry will jump(4.5 - 5.0) would seem to be a good goal.
As far as throwing the ball, I don't really think there will be much of a difference, pay a guy 20+ mil a year, I think you would want him to utilize his talents.

EDIT: Regular season only
play2win  
#9 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 9:09:52 AM(UTC)
buckeyepackfan said: Go to Quoted Post
Here are the stats from 2008-2012 +2003 & 1996

YEAR.....RUSH ATTMPTS.........AVG.........PASS COMPLETIONS..........AVG.

2012.............433..................3.9YDS..............374...........................7.8YDS
2011.............395..................3.9YDS..............376...........................9.3YDS
2010.............421..................3.8YDS..............352.........................13.8YDS
2009.............438..................4.3YDS..............357...........................8.1YDS
2008.............437..................4.1YDS..............343...........................7.5YDS

2003.............507..................5.0YDS..............310...........................7.1YDS
1996.............465..................4.0YDS..............328...........................7.2YDS

I added 2003 because that was the year The Packers dominated with the run game.
1996 was of course the other Superbowl year.

The "throwing deep" theory kind of goes up in smoke the last 2 year, funny Aaron's best(yds/per completion) year was 2010.

Hopefully with healthy RB's this year and a healthy O-line, yds per carry will jump(4.5 - 5.0) would seem to be a good goal.
As far as throwing the ball, I don't really think there will be much of a difference, pay a guy 20+ mil a year, I think you would want him to utilize his talents.

EDIT: Regular season only


That's great to see buckeypackfan.

I think both per play averages go up this season. Cobb should have a big breakout year.
Pack93z  
#10 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 9:42:47 AM(UTC)
If you search Pack93z and balance on the forum... 38 pages.

Yes.. I agree with the thought.. it is a core belief of mine on the game of football.
warhawk  
#11 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 10:40:28 AM(UTC)
Everyone talks balance but when you look at the stats year in-year out the prolific passing teams nor the best running teams can seem to make it happen.

Last year five of the top 8 passing teams were ranked lower than the Packers in rushing and only NE had significantly better rushing numbers. On the flip side out of the top five rushing teams Washington ranked the BEST in passing at #22.

The balance only seems to come with the mediocre teams ranked in the middle somewhere in both the passing and rushing stats. You have teams built to pass it and teams built to run it and when your one of the top dogs in either you take it all the way to the barn.

Only the Pats had exceptional balance in the top 10 both rushing and passing ypg and yet they have the same problem we have had playing well in the regular season only to get rolled out early in the playoffs.

Give me Rodgers and Co. and a defense healthy and playing at their best at the end of the season. I think we have more talent in the run game and it will be more effective but probably not a whole lot more balanced stat wise.
nerdmann  
#12 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 2:01:08 PM(UTC)
buckeyepackfan said: Go to Quoted Post
Here are the stats from 2008-2012 +2003 & 1996

YEAR.....RUSH ATTMPTS.........AVG.........PASS COMPLETIONS..........AVG.

2012.............433..................3.9YDS..............374...........................7.8YDS
2011.............395..................3.9YDS..............376...........................9.3YDS
2010.............421..................3.8YDS..............352.........................13.8YDS
2009.............438..................4.3YDS..............357...........................8.1YDS
2008.............437..................4.1YDS..............343...........................7.5YDS

2003.............507..................5.0YDS..............310...........................7.1YDS
1996.............465..................4.0YDS..............328...........................7.2YDS

I added 2003 because that was the year The Packers dominated with the run game.
1996 was of course the other Superbowl year.

The "throwing deep" theory kind of goes up in smoke the last 2 year, funny Aaron's best(yds/per completion) year was 2010.

Hopefully with healthy RB's this year and a healthy O-line, yds per carry will jump(4.5 - 5.0) would seem to be a good goal.
As far as throwing the ball, I don't really think there will be much of a difference, pay a guy 20+ mil a year, I think you would want him to utilize his talents.

EDIT: Regular season only


Holmgren used screens (to RBs, not WRs) and short passes as part of his running game. His offense was based on WCO fundamentals.

nerdmann  
#13 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 2:02:09 PM(UTC)
PREDICTION: Defenses will let us run all we want, because they know we don't want to run. They know we only drafted these RBs to draw the safeties up. They know that if they keep the safeties deep, we'll throw deep anyway.
steveishere  
#14 Posted : Sunday, May 19, 2013 2:09:19 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
PREDICTION: Defenses will let us run all we want, because they know we don't want to run. They know we only drafted these RBs to draw the safeties up. They know that if they keep the safeties deep, we'll throw deep anyway.


PREDICTION: We will have one of the best offenses in the NFL yet again and some fans will continue to come up with bogus reasons to cry about it.
OlHoss1884  
#15 Posted : Monday, May 20, 2013 5:54:34 AM(UTC)
It isn't a matter of balancing the runs with the passes...it's a matter of making them compliment each other, and using the best available plays against what a defense can/can't do. In the playoffs, the QB usually has to be able to make big plays because you tend to go up against better defenses. The "balance" will be that the Packers ability to run this year will not only draw the safeties up, as mentioned, but will prevent teams from being able to sell out with personnel packages for the pass rush and coverage, because they'll get it rammed down their throats.

The other thing it allows is the ability to grind out clock late in the game when protecting a lead. Sometimes the best defense is to keep the ball out f the hands of someone who can make big plays and win games...like Kaepernik, Manning, RGIII, Stafford to Johnson, Cutler to Marshall, Flacco, Roethlesberger, Dalton to Green and Ryan. ALL of whom are on the schedule this year.

In addition, a 3rd and 1 or two when you can run more reliably means Lacy or Franklin are a better option than throwing or trying to sneak with A-Rod every time...and if they stack the line to stop it, play action passes will eat them up.

It might mean calling only 20 eushes per game, but if those are used more effectively, the 40 passes will bring that yards per pass number back up and ultimately more points on the scoreboard.
nerdmann  
#16 Posted : Monday, May 20, 2013 7:00:45 AM(UTC)
steveishere said: Go to Quoted Post
PREDICTION: We will have one of the best offenses in the NFL yet again and some fans will continue to come up with bogus reasons to cry about it.


PREDICTION: We will have one of the best offenses OF ALL TIME. And yet still underperform. Particularly in crunch time.
Porforis  
#17 Posted : Monday, May 20, 2013 7:24:42 AM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
PREDICTION: We will have one of the best offenses OF ALL TIME. And yet still underperform. Particularly in crunch time.


And going from a top-20 rush attempt team to a top-10 rush attempt team will magically make us better in the playoffs. And better RBs are going to go a long ways towards making our rushing attack better if our O line doesn't get upgraded, because better RBs can teleport through their own linemen being pushed backwards.
User is suspended until 4/29/2043 11:56:55 PM(UTC) texaspackerbacker  
#18 Posted : Monday, May 20, 2013 5:28:26 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
PREDICTION: Defenses will let us run all we want, because they know we don't want to run. They know we only drafted these RBs to draw the safeties up. They know that if they keep the safeties deep, we'll throw deep anyway.


This is true. The questions is, how do the Packers then react to what the defense does? No matter how much improved our running game is, we're talking about Aaron Rodgers, the best player in the NFL. You don't just go all in to stop the run and let him go on a rampage. The key for the Packers will be to adjust on the run - see what the D is trying to take away, and go the other direction. It really has always been that way; The difference is that now we should have a running game with some credibility, assuming they sit back to stop the pass - then identify when the time is right to go play action or screen or whatever. It still is gonna take decent line blocking, though. Hopefully we will get at least adequate performance in that area.

play2win  
#19 Posted : Tuesday, May 21, 2013 5:57:20 AM(UTC)
What I like seeing is the influx of RB talent is so great that McCarthy will have to commit more to running the ball, and doing so more effectively.

Added talent here, and on our OL will change what defenses do against us, completely opening up play action and deep patterns. Rodgers, running this offense, will have so many more options, better options available to him. This should be great fun to watch as fans.

Now, what that will do to what I consider to be a much improved defense... Wow.

In theory, this all looks really great. We'll have to see how McCarthy uses all of these great tools to his best advantage. If we can stay healthy this could be a very special year.
User is suspended until 4/29/2043 11:56:55 PM(UTC) texaspackerbacker  
#20 Posted : Tuesday, May 21, 2013 8:16:30 PM(UTC)
play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
What I like seeing is the influx of RB talent is so great that McCarthy will have to commit more to running the ball, and doing so more effectively.

Added talent here, and on our OL will change what defenses do against us, completely opening up play action and deep patterns. Rodgers, running this offense, will have so many more options, better options available to him. This should be great fun to watch as fans.

Now, what that will do to what I consider to be a much improved defense... Wow.

In theory, this all looks really great. We'll have to see how McCarthy uses all of these great tools to his best advantage. If we can stay healthy this could be a very special year.


You see it; I see it; Probably almost all of us here see the Packers as vastly improved and the best bet to go all the way in 2013. It will be very interesting, however, when the talking heads/the so-called experts around the country start making their rankings and predictions.

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