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Offline play2win  
#1 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 7:13:09 AM(UTC)
play2win

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Word is spreading some of the QB needy teams are considering passing on the QB picks in R1. If Ted were to steal one, maybe it proves a huge windfall in trade with a team like CLE, who has 4 of the first 83 picks in this draft.

Quote:
A few teams with quarterback needs have an interesting strategy. I’ve heard that at least four quarterback-needy teams—Houston (first pick), Jacksonville (3), Cleveland (4) and Oakland (5)—are strongly considering passing on quarterbacks with their first picks and waiting until their second or third selections. Simple reason: They’re not in love with any of the quarterbacks, and there are too many other good players who are surer things than a quarterback you have sincere doubts about. For that reason, there could be more quarterbacks taken in round two than round one. For instance, Jacksonville really likes Jimmy Garoppolo of Eastern Illinois, and he’d likely be there high in the second round when the Jags pick again, at 39.

One more thing: The great value in this draft will be from about 20 to 50. So guess what team is in great position to capitalize on the depth in rounds one and two? San Francisco, with the ability and the recent history of moving around so well. The rich-get-richer Niners hold the 30th, 56th, 61st, and 77th overall picks. If they want someone in the forties, they’ve got the currency to get him. The Browns are in good shape to do some damage too, with picks 26, 35, 71 and 83.
http://mmqb.si.com/2014/04/14/nfl-draft-jadeveon-clowney-monday-morning-qb/

hmmmm...

Message modified by user Tuesday, April 22, 2014 10:07:42 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline texaspackerbacker  
#2 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 7:31:00 AM(UTC)
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yeah right ........ hahahaha.

It just ain't that hard to find a successful college QB nowadays, and a lot of them turn into decent NFL QBs that weren't even that good in college.
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Offline warhawk  
#3 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 8:35:02 AM(UTC)
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I think it's a gamble I would prefer not to take.

Teams that need a QB would know that we want to trade that pick and the leverage would be more in their favor than ours IMO.

You have to think of the fall back position or in other words the worst case scenario and that would be that no acceptable trade offer comes in. Would it be the best decision for the team if they ended up with a QB at #21. The answer is NOT.

If Ted finds a trade partner and wants to get more picks early that would be fine, or, it's very possible a really good player falls thru the cracks and is sitting there. Those two options are much better than getting tricky.

This is a very deep draft and we haven't drafted this low for awhile now. I can't see screwing around with that.
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Offline nerdmann  
#4 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 9:49:06 AM(UTC)
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Last year, and I can prove this, because I posted it on my blog, I said: IF GENO SMITH FALLS, TAKE HIM!

What would that have looked like after Aaron went down? NERD=GENIUS.

Proof that I'm smarter than Ted Thompson!

I say, trust your scouts. If you have a QB as a clear BPA, take him.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Offline Mucky Tundra  
#5 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 9:53:38 AM(UTC)
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Sorta seems like when there was talk of tagging Flynn and trying to trade him. The risk was getting stuck with his contract. Likewise, drafting a QB at #21 and trying to offload him seems risky. I doubt we'd get back what we paid for in terms of draft pick value since teams would know that we want to offload the drafted QB and would have all the high ground in talks.
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Offline mi_keys  
#6 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 10:25:46 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: nerdmann Go to Quoted Post
Last year, and I can prove this, because I posted it on my blog, I said: IF GENO SMITH FALLS, TAKE HIM!

What would that have looked like after Aaron went down? NERD=GENIUS.

Proof that I'm smarter than Ted Thompson!

I say, trust your scouts. If you have a QB as a clear BPA, take him.


Is this a joke?

Geno Smith had the single worst passer rating (66.5) of quarterbacks with enough passes to qualify (I believe minimum attempts is 100). Scott Tolzien at 66.8 and Seneca Wallace at 64.4 had comparable passer ratings.

If we'd taken him, with what he showed this past year, it would have looked incomprehensibly stupid. He needs to show significant improvement or he won't be long for this league.

On topic, I don't know that there is really a quarterback worth taking at 21 over some of the other players that are likely to be available. They all seem to have questions. There also seem to be some decent prospects that are projected to be available much later in the draft, so I would rather try to address the backup QB position on the second or third day of the draft.

And as others have stated, if the other teams aren't interested in picking the player, and know we don't want to be stuck with him, then we have little to no leverage in drafting him and trying to trade. I'd rather just directly trade back into the early second round if there is a run on defensive players and try to get a handful of picks in the second and third round and maximize this supposedly deep draft.
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Offline nerdmann  
#7 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 10:47:14 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: mi_keys Go to Quoted Post
Is this a joke?

Geno Smith had the single worst passer rating (66.5) of quarterbacks with enough passes to qualify (I believe minimum attempts is 100). Scott Tolzien at 66.8 and Seneca Wallace at 64.4 had comparable passer ratings.

If we'd taken him, with what he showed this past year, it would have looked incomprehensibly stupid. He needs to show significant improvement or he won't be long for this league.

On topic, I don't know that there is really a quarterback worth taking at 21 over some of the other players that are likely to be available. They all seem to have questions. There also seem to be some decent prospects that are projected to be available much later in the draft, so I would rather try to address the backup QB position on the second or third day of the draft.

And as others have stated, if the other teams aren't interested in picking the player, and know we don't want to be stuck with him, then we have little to no leverage in drafting him and trying to trade. I'd rather just directly trade back into the early second round if there is a run on defensive players and try to get a handful of picks in the second and third round and maximize this supposedly deep draft.


He looked good at times, and let's face it. Mike would have had something to work with there. I'd take Mike and Aaron over the Ryan anyday.

Geno Smith>Seneca Wallace.

EDIT: And btw, the Packers would have given him ALOT more weapons to work with.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Offline buckeyepackfan  
#8 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 12:01:24 PM(UTC)
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A team drafts a QB in the 1st rnd, that means they are looking to replace their current QB within a year or 2.

Too much quality talent at other positions to worry about whether this years qb's are the real deal or not.

Flynn and Tolzien are good enough for another year.

Cmon Ted get Flynn signed!!!!!!!

Then move onto draft day.
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Offline texaspackerbacker  
#9 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 12:54:21 PM(UTC)
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If Ted had the good sense to pick up Tolzien instead of Seneca Wallace - or just about anybody else off the scrap heap other than Seneca Wallace, the additional time to develop Tolzien or whoever would have meant we didn't even need Flynn last season.

No, Ted, do NOT sign Flynn. Not only would it be money wasted, but the team would be worse off with Flynn if, heaven forbid, we needed to play a backup again, than we would with a well-trained Tolzien.
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Offline play2win  
#10 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 1:28:05 PM(UTC)
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Let's put it this way.

• The Texans pick 1st, and they need a QB, but will probably take Clowney.

• The Jags pick 3rd, and they have Chad Henne at QB. They need one, but may decide to go with Mack at OLB.

• The Browns pick 4th, need a QB, but word is they are going to jump on WR Sammy Watkins out of Clemson here.

• The Vikings pick 8th, and they need a QB pronto. Probably do here, and they probably tag Bortles.

• That will leave Manziel and/or Bridgewater. Both HOU and JAX may want to jump CLE with their 2nd R1 at #24 to nab one of these guys. Meanwhile, GB sits ahead of CLE at #21.

It is possible our #21 could come into play here. HOU holds the 1st pick in every round. Maybe they make it worth Ted's while to trade out of R1 by packaging #33 and #65.

Would you take an R2 and R3, tops of both rounds for #21? I might.

JAX could offer #39, 70 and 105. This deal would mean 7 picks for us through the first 4 rounds. Not bad.

Would you just draft Manziel if he's there and see what happens? I might. That could become a super valuable bargaining chip.

Message modified by user Monday, April 14, 2014 1:38:08 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline nerdmann  
#11 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 1:32:27 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
Let's put it this way.

• The Texans pick 1st, and they need a QB, but will probably take Clowney.

• The Jags pick 3rd, and they have Chad Henne at QB. They need one, but may decide to go with Mack at OLB.

• The Browns pick 4th, need a QB, but word is they are going to jump on WR Sammy Watkins out of Clemson here.

• The Vikings pick 8th, and they need a QB pronto. Probably do here, and they probably tag Bortles.

• That will leave Manziel and/or Bridgewater. Both HOU and JAX may want to jump CLE with their 2nd R1 at #24 to nab one of these guys. Meanwhile, GB sits ahead of CLE at #21.

It is possible our #21 could come into play here. HOU holds the 1st pick in every round. Maybe they make it worth Ted's while to trade out of R1 by packaging #33 and #65.

Would you take an R2 and R3, tops of both rounds for #21? I might.

Would you just draft Manziel if he's there and see what happens? I might. That could become a super valuable bargaining chip.


I'd lean toward trading down, but I haven't done a full study of Manziel.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Offline DoddPower  
#12 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 1:35:12 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
Would you take an R2 and R3, tops of both rounds for #21? I might.

Would you just draft Manziel if he's there and see what happens? I might. That could become a super valuable bargaining chip.


Just depends on whose available at that time. If Clinton-Dix or maybe even Pryor was available, I think the pick should be made. I think one really good player at a position of extreme need would help the team more than two good players at positions that may not be as big of a need (say DT and CB, or anything else). Or potentially even two good players, one at a position of extreme need and another at a reasonable need. If there is any player that would make Ted Thompson say "WOW, I can't believe this guy fell to 21!!" he should take him, imo. If he's not overly excited about the remaining prospect, then sure, try to trade down.

I guess I feel like the best value may not ultimately help the team the most. I'd take two really good players from one draft than 4 decent ones. But it's much more complex than my simplistic comparison so it's really hard to say.

Offline play2win  
#13 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 1:51:34 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DoddPower Go to Quoted Post
Just depends on whose available at that time. If Clinton-Dix or maybe even Pryor was available, I think the pick should be made. I think one really good player at a position of extreme need would help the team more than two good players at positions that may not be as big of a need (say DT and CB, or anything else). Or potentially even two good players, one at a position of extreme need and another at a reasonable need. If there is any player that would make Ted Thompson say "WOW, I can't believe this guy fell to 21!!" he should take him, imo. If he's not overly excited about the remaining prospect, then sure, try to trade down.

I guess I feel like the best value may not ultimately help the team the most. I'd take two really good players from one draft than 4 decent ones. But it's much more complex than my simplistic comparison so it's really hard to say.



Dodd, I tend to agree with you on the quality v. quantity thing. I would much rather have 2 Pro Bowl players who are 5 year starters, than 4 five year starters who are just good.

This is where it can get really interesting. I just wanted to pose the question, because I do think teams will come at us for that #21 pick.
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Offline DoddPower  
#14 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 5:32:20 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
Dodd, I tend to agree with you on the quality v. quantity thing. I would much rather have 2 Pro Bowl players who are 5 year starters, than 4 five year starters who are just good.

This is where it can get really interesting. I just wanted to pose the question, because I do think teams will come at us for that #21 pick.


I hope they do! If the pick isn't a no-brainer at 21 for Ted Thompson, then hopefully he can trade down a little. I kinda see it as diversifying or spreading the risk across more picks. Ted seems to like doing that.

Online DakotaT  
#15 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 5:49:27 PM(UTC)
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I don't see any of these quarterbacks this year as top ten picks, and most of them should be second rounders. If someone is dumb enough to want our pick at 21, then by all means, make the trade. I'm not blown away by anything this year that will be available at 21.
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Offline wpr  
#16 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 6:34:51 PM(UTC)
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Offline wpr  
#17 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 6:37:29 PM(UTC)
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I rarely see it work out when a team drafts a player in hopes of trading him to some unknown team later.
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Offline steveishere  
#18 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 8:24:23 PM(UTC)
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Offline play2win  
#19 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 4:07:52 AM(UTC)
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wpr and steveishere,

That's AWESOME!!!!!! Yeah, I agree. Just popping for a QB makes little sense when done without a trading partner. This idea got away from me a little bit. But, should JAX or HOU make us an offer for the 21 so that they can take a QB, I could see a trade down.

I'm thinking we could be better off holding firm with our R1 pick and get a special player there, if the right guy is available.
Offline mi_keys  
#20 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 5:05:36 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
wpr and steveishere,

That's AWESOME!!!!!! Yeah, I agree. Just popping for a QB makes little sense when done without a trading partner. This idea got away from me a little bit. But, should JAX or HOU make us an offer for the 21 so that they can take a QB, I could see a trade down.

I'm thinking we could be better off holding firm with our R1 pick and get a special player there, if the right guy is available.


Yeah, the trade for the player is probably unlikely but one of them trading up for the draft pick and taking the QB on their own is a possibility depending on picks 1 through 20.

For what it's worth, based on the draft pick value chart, here's how the picks you suggested stack up:

GB:
Pick 21: 800
Total: 800

HOU:
Pick 33: 580
Pick 65: 265
Total: 845

JAX:
Pick 39: 510
Pick 70: 240
Pick 105: 84
Total: 834

source:
http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

Based on the draft chart, it says Green Bay is getting the slightly better value. Based on the alleged depth of this draft, we probably would be getting the better value but, again, it depends on how the first 20 picks fall.

After the above scenario we could also potentially take the Jacksonville 3rd and 4th round pick or the Houston 3rd and our 4th (#121) and trade back into the 2nd round if there was one more player sitting there we really liked. Those sets of picks add up to about the 25-26 pick of the second round. That would give us 3 2nd round picks.
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Offline play2win  
#21 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 5:31:39 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: mi_keys Go to Quoted Post
Yeah, the trade for the player is probably unlikely but one of them trading up for the draft pick and taking the QB on their own is a possibility depending on picks 1 through 20.

For what it's worth, based on the draft pick value chart, here's how the picks you suggested stack up:

GB:
Pick 21: 800
Total: 800

HOU:
Pick 33: 580
Pick 65: 265
Total: 845

JAX:
Pick 39: 510
Pick 70: 240
Pick 105: 84
Total: 834

source:
http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

Based on the draft chart, it says Green Bay is getting the slightly better value. Based on the alleged depth of this draft, we probably would be getting the better value but, again, it depends on how the first 20 picks fall.

After the above scenario we could also potentially take the Jacksonville 3rd and 4th round pick or the Houston 3rd and our 4th (#121) and trade back into the 2nd round if there was one more player sitting there we really liked. Those sets of picks add up to about the 25-26 pick of the second round. That would give us 3 2nd round picks.


Yeah, I checked the chart to make sure the deal was skewed in our favor! Laughing Your scenario of us jumping into R2 for three selections is something I think all of us could see Ted doing. Just as long as he hits on all three instead of a Pat Lee and Brian Brohm scenario... But, hell yeah, it could work for us with a draft this deep.

I do think that #21 will be coveted by a team who passes on a QB. Maybe these QB needy teams don't pass up the QB and the point becomes moot. If I'm HOU and I need the best QB I can find to run my team, and I'm staring at Clowney, I would be inclined to take the QB. Too many question marks with Clowney IMO. He was handled last season. What's going to happen to him in the Pros?

Same holds true for all the other QB needy teams. CLE? Are they really going to pass on a guy that can take them places and lead their team to nab a WR? JAX? MIN? TB? Hell, I could see NYJ taking a QB if the right one fell to them. It is only the most important position on a team.

If all these teams do jump on their QB of choice, we will be seeing a lot of talent falling our way, at positions we could use. Something tells me that's more how this will shake out.
Offline wpr  
#22 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 5:32:27 AM(UTC)
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The flip side to trading with some of the teams who need a QB is that they need a lot of help. Giving up extra picks to get the QB will mean they will still need more help at other positions next year and probably the year after that. While GB has a pretty set roster and getting an extra pick or two won't insure those players even making the team.
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Offline play2win  
#23 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 5:53:09 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: wpr Go to Quoted Post
The flip side to trading with some of the teams who need a QB is that they need a lot of help. Giving up extra picks to get the QB will mean they will still need more help at other positions next year and probably the year after that. While GB has a pretty set roster and getting an extra pick or two won't insure those players even making the team.


True. But, some of these teams have a ton of picks to play with. Both HOU and JAX have 11 picks. CLE has 10. NYJ has 12, as does STL. Also, other teams with established QBs: ATL has 10 and DAL and SF have 11 each.

Teams like AZ, BUF, OAK, TB and TEN, all teams with big needs, only have 6 choices each. You know they are going to want to trade back. I'm kind of hoping we trade up with one or more of these teams to land an extra special player or players.

Then there are teams like WAS and IND who only have 6 and 5 choices respectively, and no R1s. Those teams could become trading partners for R2 and R3 should Ted wish to maneuver up.

wpr, I want us to land top quality players this year. Trading up early is what I am hoping for if the right players are there, and I can see Ted doing a bit of both in this draft.
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Offline wpr  
#24 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 6:02:08 AM(UTC)
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I am all for moving up and getting a better player than moving down and getting more run of the mill players. The draft is deep for run of the mill players.
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Offline steveishere  
#25 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 7:17:07 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: wpr Go to Quoted Post
I am all for moving up and getting a better player than moving down and getting more run of the mill players. The draft is deep for run of the mill players.


I'm all for moving back and getting more players that next year could have been 1st 2nd or 3rd round picks in later rounds this year. This draft is deep for those players. Now you don't move around just to do it obviously if there's a guy at 16 you think is some phenom that wont last to 21 then yeah maybe you go after him but there's a reason teams don't try and trade as many picks as they can to move up as much as they can. "Getting a better player" is nice in theory but usually not worth the cost in reality
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24-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

24-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

24-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool