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Online nerdmann  
#11 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 1:32:27 PM(UTC)
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play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
Let's put it this way.

• The Texans pick 1st, and they need a QB, but will probably take Clowney.

• The Jags pick 3rd, and they have Chad Henne at QB. They need one, but may decide to go with Mack at OLB.

• The Browns pick 4th, need a QB, but word is they are going to jump on WR Sammy Watkins out of Clemson here.

• The Vikings pick 8th, and they need a QB pronto. Probably do here, and they probably tag Bortles.

• That will leave Manziel and/or Bridgewater. Both HOU and JAX may want to jump CLE with their 2nd R1 at #24 to nab one of these guys. Meanwhile, GB sits ahead of CLE at #21.

It is possible our #21 could come into play here. HOU holds the 1st pick in every round. Maybe they make it worth Ted's while to trade out of R1 by packaging #33 and #65.

Would you take an R2 and R3, tops of both rounds for #21? I might.

Would you just draft Manziel if he's there and see what happens? I might. That could become a super valuable bargaining chip.


I'd lean toward trading down, but I haven't done a full study of Manziel.
Offline DoddPower  
#12 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 1:35:12 PM(UTC)
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play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
Would you take an R2 and R3, tops of both rounds for #21? I might.

Would you just draft Manziel if he's there and see what happens? I might. That could become a super valuable bargaining chip.


Just depends on whose available at that time. If Clinton-Dix or maybe even Pryor was available, I think the pick should be made. I think one really good player at a position of extreme need would help the team more than two good players at positions that may not be as big of a need (say DT and CB, or anything else). Or potentially even two good players, one at a position of extreme need and another at a reasonable need. If there is any player that would make Ted Thompson say "WOW, I can't believe this guy fell to 21!!" he should take him, imo. If he's not overly excited about the remaining prospect, then sure, try to trade down.

I guess I feel like the best value may not ultimately help the team the most. I'd take two really good players from one draft than 4 decent ones. But it's much more complex than my simplistic comparison so it's really hard to say.

Offline play2win  
#13 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 1:51:34 PM(UTC)
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DoddPower said: Go to Quoted Post
Just depends on whose available at that time. If Clinton-Dix or maybe even Pryor was available, I think the pick should be made. I think one really good player at a position of extreme need would help the team more than two good players at positions that may not be as big of a need (say DT and CB, or anything else). Or potentially even two good players, one at a position of extreme need and another at a reasonable need. If there is any player that would make Ted Thompson say "WOW, I can't believe this guy fell to 21!!" he should take him, imo. If he's not overly excited about the remaining prospect, then sure, try to trade down.

I guess I feel like the best value may not ultimately help the team the most. I'd take two really good players from one draft than 4 decent ones. But it's much more complex than my simplistic comparison so it's really hard to say.



Dodd, I tend to agree with you on the quality v. quantity thing. I would much rather have 2 Pro Bowl players who are 5 year starters, than 4 five year starters who are just good.

This is where it can get really interesting. I just wanted to pose the question, because I do think teams will come at us for that #21 pick.
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nerdmann on 4/14/2014(UTC)
Offline DoddPower  
#14 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 5:32:20 PM(UTC)
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play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
Dodd, I tend to agree with you on the quality v. quantity thing. I would much rather have 2 Pro Bowl players who are 5 year starters, than 4 five year starters who are just good.

This is where it can get really interesting. I just wanted to pose the question, because I do think teams will come at us for that #21 pick.


I hope they do! If the pick isn't a no-brainer at 21 for Ted Thompson, then hopefully he can trade down a little. I kinda see it as diversifying or spreading the risk across more picks. Ted seems to like doing that.

Offline DakotaT  
#15 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 5:49:27 PM(UTC)
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I don't see any of these quarterbacks this year as top ten picks, and most of them should be second rounders. If someone is dumb enough to want our pick at 21, then by all means, make the trade. I'm not blown away by anything this year that will be available at 21.
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wpr on 4/14/2014(UTC)
Offline wpr  
#16 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 6:34:51 PM(UTC)
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play2win on 4/15/2014(UTC)
Offline wpr  
#17 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 6:37:29 PM(UTC)
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I rarely see it work out when a team drafts a player in hopes of trading him to some unknown team later.
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sschind on 4/15/2014(UTC)
Offline steveishere  
#18 Posted : Monday, April 14, 2014 8:24:23 PM(UTC)
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play2win on 4/15/2014(UTC)
Offline play2win  
#19 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 4:07:52 AM(UTC)
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wpr and steveishere,

That's AWESOME!!!!!! Yeah, I agree. Just popping for a QB makes little sense when done without a trading partner. This idea got away from me a little bit. But, should JAX or HOU make us an offer for the 21 so that they can take a QB, I could see a trade down.

I'm thinking we could be better off holding firm with our R1 pick and get a special player there, if the right guy is available.
Offline mi_keys  
#20 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 5:05:36 AM(UTC)
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play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
wpr and steveishere,

That's AWESOME!!!!!! Yeah, I agree. Just popping for a QB makes little sense when done without a trading partner. This idea got away from me a little bit. But, should JAX or HOU make us an offer for the 21 so that they can take a QB, I could see a trade down.

I'm thinking we could be better off holding firm with our R1 pick and get a special player there, if the right guy is available.


Yeah, the trade for the player is probably unlikely but one of them trading up for the draft pick and taking the QB on their own is a possibility depending on picks 1 through 20.

For what it's worth, based on the draft pick value chart, here's how the picks you suggested stack up:

GB:
Pick 21: 800
Total: 800

HOU:
Pick 33: 580
Pick 65: 265
Total: 845

JAX:
Pick 39: 510
Pick 70: 240
Pick 105: 84
Total: 834

source:
http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

Based on the draft chart, it says Green Bay is getting the slightly better value. Based on the alleged depth of this draft, we probably would be getting the better value but, again, it depends on how the first 20 picks fall.

After the above scenario we could also potentially take the Jacksonville 3rd and 4th round pick or the Houston 3rd and our 4th (#121) and trade back into the 2nd round if there was one more player sitting there we really liked. Those sets of picks add up to about the 25-26 pick of the second round. That would give us 3 2nd round picks.
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play2win on 4/15/2014(UTC), wpr on 4/15/2014(UTC)
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