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Offline wpr  
#31 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 11:53:49 AM(UTC)

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steve I will ignore the last 3 drafts as it is too soon. "Stand out" to me is pro bowl/all pro caliber. A starter is a starter = average. We have to have some way of defining that they are more than just a really good starter.
2010 Mike Neal
2009 no 2nd round pick. trade up for CM3
2008 Jordy Nelson, Brian Brohm & Patrick Lee
2007 Brandon Jackson
2006 Daryn Colledge & Greg Jennings
2005 Nick Collins & Terrence Murphy
2001 Robert Ferguson
2000 Chad Clifton
1999 Fred Vinson
1997 Darren Sharper
1996 Derrick Mayes
1992 Mark D'Onofrio
1991 Esera Tuaolo
1990 LeRoy Butler

I have to stop somewhere so I will end it on a positive note with Butler.

17 players in 21 years. Nelson, Jennings, Collins, Clifton and Butler were the only ones that really stood out and were above average. Oops almost forgot Sharper. Then again most of his acclaim came after he left GB but he still counts.

Half a star to Vinson for being the trade bait to get Ahmad Green but he did nothing worthy on his own. A half star for Colledge to help pay the rent for this board. Mrs C will appreciate it.

I only looked at the 3rd round very briefly. There are a few above average players there but there are more average to below average players taken in the 3rd.

So with 98 underclassmen coming out that means that the opportunity to pick a street FA after the draft is even better than in most years.

I do not scout the college players. I can not say that this year's draft is better or worse than another year. I can only speak in generalizations. Generally speaking it will be better to move up and land the guy who is a difference maker than it is to trade down and get 3 average quality ones. Now keep in mind I am saying the average ones are still starters don't think I am saying they are no good. What I am saying is GB already HAS starters. At least at most positions. Guys who will play 8-10 years. If we are going to move one of them out and put someone else in it has to be someone who is a better player.

And I agree the whole scope is complex. That is why somewhere back there I said it has to be for a stud and it has to be at a position of need. What I didn't say because I assumed it would be a given is who every Uncle Teddy pays the price to get would be worthy of the extra price GB would have to pay and not be another Jamal Reynolds or Justin Harrell. I don't even want him to be a B.J. Raji or Javon Walker.

edit- some how I missed Jordy. I must have skipped over the first name that year thinking it was a #1
Offline dhazer  
#32 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 3:56:25 PM(UTC)

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Why is it we would have to trade the QB if we draft him? I remember a few years ago when a certain QB dropped and we drafted him even though it wasn't a huge need at the time and how did that work out?
Offline wpr  
#33 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 4:21:29 PM(UTC)

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dhazer said: Go to Quoted Post
Why is it we would have to trade the QB if we draft him? I remember a few years ago when a certain QB dropped and we drafted him even though it wasn't a huge need at the time and how did that work out?


Wrong. It was a BIG need. Typically teams/players don't do well when they draft and then start a QB immediately. It takes 3 years for a QB to learn.

Sir Brett was waffling for a few years by that point in time. GB did not know if he would play 1 more year or 3. The time was perfect an the need immediate.
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play2win on 4/15/2014(UTC), luigis on 4/17/2014(UTC)
Offline play2win  
#34 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 4:58:51 PM(UTC)

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Well, here is a good link to reference regarding all of Ted's draft day trades, both up and down. The effectiveness of one over the other is certainly debatable.

http://www.packers.com/history/draft-history.html

Ted did well trading back in 2013, netting Lacy, Bakhtiari and Dorsey.

He did well in 2012 trading up for Hayward. Jury still out on trade up for Worthy.

He didn't fare so well trading back with DEN in 2011 getting DJ Williams and DJ Smith, as well as trading back with MIA netting Caleb Schlauderaff and Ryan Taylor.

Traded up with PHI in 2010 getting Morgan Burnett.

Traded up in 2009 with NE for Clay Matthews

Traded back in 2008 with NYJ landing Jordy Nelson. Also traded back with MIN getting Breno Giaccomini and Matt Flynn. Again traded back with STL to draft Brett Swain and with NO into 2009 to draft Jairus Wynn.

2007 traded back with NYJ for Brandon Jackson, Aaron Rouse and Korey Hall. Also traded back with PIT for Allen Barbre and Desmond Bishop

2006 traded back with NE and DEN landing Greg Jennings and Daryn Colledge and Jason Spitz. Back to PHI with Will Blackmon and Tyrone Culver. Back again with STL for Johnny Jolly

2006 back with CAR for Underwood and a pick that was traded back to PHI for Mike Hawkins and Curt Campbell. Again back with NE for Craig Bragg and Will Whitticker.


Pretty interesting when you look at the history of Ted's trades.
Offline luigis  
#35 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 5:33:18 PM(UTC)

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Can Geno Smith play safety? Yikes, I didn't know that.


I'm sure we have to stay put, unless it is better to trade up or down, then that would be better.
I hope Ted has the same conviction as I have about the correct course of action.

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wpr on 4/15/2014(UTC)
Offline play2win  
#36 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 7:02:09 PM(UTC)

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luigis, I think Ted will get his Safety or Safeties. I do wonder how he has them rated, and if he might have another playmaker in mind he would want to move up or gauge down to hopefully draft.

We could easily stay at 21 and take the best player available. But, we do have a lot of picks that would allow us to maneuver.

BTW, I don't know for certain we have to stay put. We could get a great offer for that #21. Might be worthwhile if Ted has other players he thinks are of equal value.
Offline PackFanWithTwins  
#37 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 7:16:25 PM(UTC)

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Unless you are planning on Rodgers not playing for another 5 years, QB in the first is out of the question.

I wouldn't mind moving up for the right player, I also wouldn't mind trading the pick away and using the acquired picks to max out on 2nd and 3rd rounders. The team doesn't have room for high volume of picks, we need more quality instead.
Offline wpr  
#38 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 7:48:09 PM(UTC)

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PackFanWithTwins said: Go to Quoted Post
Unless you are planning on Rodgers not playing for another 5 years, QB in the first is out of the question.

I wouldn't mind moving up for the right player, I also wouldn't mind trading the pick away and using the acquired picks to max out on 2nd and 3rd rounders. The team doesn't have room for high volume of picks, we need more quality instead.


you said quality picks. that is more common when a team moves up.
Offline PackFanWithTwins  
#39 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 7:53:57 PM(UTC)

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wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
you said quality picks. that is more common when a team moves up.


That is where trading back, and using the additional picks to max out on 2nd and 3rd rounders fits in. That would require trading back up, after moving the 1st rounder.
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DoddPower on 4/16/2014(UTC)
Offline sschind  
#40 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 9:01:32 PM(UTC)

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luigis said: Go to Quoted Post
Can Geno Smith play safety? Yikes, I didn't know that.


I'm sure we have to stay put, unless it is better to trade up or down, then that would be better.
I hope Ted has the same conviction as I have about the correct course of action.



Do you eat your waffles while sitting on a fence?[grin1] [grin1] [grin1] [grin1] [grin1]

Offline Yerko  
#41 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 9:56:51 PM(UTC)

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If Houston or Jacksonville are the trading partners, I would be all for trading down.

There's a good possibility that players like C.J. Mosley or Ryan Shazier are sitting there at the beginning of the 2nd.

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DoddPower on 4/16/2014(UTC)
Offline luigis  
#42 Posted : Wednesday, April 16, 2014 4:26:29 AM(UTC)

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Yerko said: Go to Quoted Post
If Houston or Jacksonville are the trading partners, I would be all for trading down.

There's a good possibility that players like C.J. Mosley or Ryan Shazier are sitting there at the beginning of the 2nd.



If CJ Mosley is available in the 2nd round I'll eat my hat without mayo. [grin1]

Offline warhawk  
#43 Posted : Wednesday, April 16, 2014 6:55:39 AM(UTC)

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I don't see any reason to trade up with the 21st pick. There is plenty of very good football players that will be sitting there unlike other years when we drafted later and true 1st round talent was all but gone.

STAYING PUT: (3 Rounds)
We draft at #21, #53, 85, and, 98


MOVING UP:
Would have to mean losing pick #53.
So maybe we end up with say #16, 85, and, 98.

MOVING DOWN: To late round 1 or very early Round 2
Would give us at least two 2nd round picks and three 3rd round Picks. Ted could also then trade back up two of the third round picks to get back into round two.

I for one have no desire to move up and then watch all these good players go off the board and not pick again until late round 3. I don't see any player between say 15 and 20 THAT much better than the players that will be available at #21 or #31 for that matter worth doing this.
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play2win on 4/16/2014(UTC), DoddPower on 4/16/2014(UTC)
Offline play2win  
#44 Posted : Wednesday, April 16, 2014 7:10:25 AM(UTC)

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Yeah, warhawk, I don't know who we would move up for either from the 21 spot. I just don't see it in R1.

What I could see is Ted possibly trying to get back into R1 by packaging a pick from next year with a bunch of other late rounders that he won't really need. That I would welcome in this draft, because we could add that extra impact player a year earlier into our system. I believe we need that kind of help right now. For example, adding a Pryor and Shazier, or a Nix and Mosley, etc while still maintaining control of our R2 and an R3 (comp). Or, as you say a trade up back into R2 could be a good option.

There are a handful of teams that will want more picks than the 5 or 6 they have in this draft.

Rarely do you see a pick and a player type of swap these days, but that could happen too.

I do believe Ted will be just fine holding firm with what he has though. You're right, 4 of the first 98 is not bad at all. Should be fun to see how he moves, if he does.
Offline texaspackerbacker  
#45 Posted : Wednesday, April 16, 2014 8:28:19 AM(UTC)

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play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
Well, here is a good link to reference regarding all of Ted's draft day trades, both up and down. The effectiveness of one over the other is certainly debatable.

http://www.packers.com/history/draft-history.html

Ted did well trading back in 2013, netting Lacy, Bakhtiari and Dorsey.

He did well in 2012 trading up for Hayward. Jury still out on trade up for Worthy.

He didn't fare so well trading back with DEN in 2011 getting DJ Williams and DJ Smith, as well as trading back with MIA netting Caleb Schlauderaff and Ryan Taylor.

Traded up with PHI in 2010 getting Morgan Burnett.

Traded up in 2009 with NE for Clay Matthews

Traded back in 2008 with NYJ landing Jordy Nelson. Also traded back with MIN getting Breno Giaccomini and Matt Flynn. Again traded back with STL to draft Brett Swain and with NO into 2009 to draft Jairus Wynn.

2007 traded back with NYJ for Brandon Jackson, Aaron Rouse and Korey Hall. Also traded back with PIT for Allen Barbre and Desmond Bishop

2006 traded back with NE and DEN landing Greg Jennings and Daryn Colledge and Jason Spitz. Back to PHI with Will Blackmon and Tyrone Culver. Back again with STL for Johnny Jolly

2006 back with CAR for Underwood and a pick that was traded back to PHI for Mike Hawkins and Curt Campbell. Again back with NE for Craig Bragg and Will Whitticker.


Pretty interesting when you look at the history of Ted's trades.


More than interesting. It's overwhelmingly in favor of trading up. About the only clear cut successes of trading down are Jordy Nelson and Lacy, and you have to compare them to what teams got in the first round or higher second. That is the missing half of the puzzle - when those trades were made, what did the other side get?

I still say in the circumstance the Packers are in now - needing a little bit more QUALITY instead of a lot more QUANTITY, it is slam dunk obvious to trade up - or else just leave well enough alone if no there is no clear reason to trade.
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