Odds were in Green Bay's favor for win

nerdmann
Premier Member Topic Starter

9 years ago

The Packers were in control of their NFC Championship Game with the Seattle Seahawks throughout the second half Sunday. And according to ProFootballReference.com, the Packers' chances of winning ranged between 94.4% at halftime and 99.9% with 3:07 remaining.

JSOnline wrote:

So from a purely analytical standpoint, what is more likely?

This 13-sigma outlier, or this team purposely taking a dive? Let's just ignore Burnett downing the INT with a wide open field in front of him as if he was terrifed that the Packers would get too far ahead, and look strictly, dispassionately at the numbers.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

Wanna join the discussion?! Login to your PACKERSHOME forum account or Register a new forum account

Dulak
Veteran Member

9 years ago

Originally Posted by: nerdmann

Ouch, that hurts even more looking at those odds.

I had a fair amount of dough on the packers to win the SB also ...

PackFanWithTwins
Veteran Member

9 years ago

What are the odds of a team taking a dive driving to score a game tying FG?

The world needs ditch diggers too Danny!!!

nerdmann
Premier Member Topic Starter

9 years ago

What are the odds of a team taking a dive driving to score a game tying FG?

Originally Posted by: PackFanWithTwins

I don't know, but they sure made it look easy. Right up until they got to about the 35. Suddenly, BAM! Nothing could be more difficult.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

Rockmolder
Honored Member

9 years ago

Originally Posted by: nerdmann

This one's way too obvious to be a dive.

If the odds are 99.9% in our favour, there's still a 0.01% chance we'll lose. I guess this was that one in a thousand game.

nerdmann
Premier Member Topic Starter

9 years ago

This one's way too obvious to be a dive.

If the odds are 99.9% in our favour, there's still a 0.01% chance we'll lose. I guess this was that one in a thousand game.

Originally Posted by: Rockmolder

If you look at this team's history, it's really not that much of an outlier. Julio Jones was doing the same thing to us, that's the example I use, but it is one of many.

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

Cheesey
Preferred Member

9 years ago

I don't believe for a second that they took a dive.
I DO believe that they felt they had the game won, and stopped doing what got them the lead to that point in the game.

Important Information:

The PACKERSHOME uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. More Details Close

Fan Shout

beast (13h) : Family? That's Deadpool's F word

Nonstopdrivel (13h) : Not THAT f-word.

Zero2Cool (13h) : fuck

beast (14h) : 49ers are Cap Tight

beast (14h) : Fuck

Mucky Tundra (15h) : Kanata, I will be when I'm on my lunch later

TheKanataThrilla (15h) : Love you NSD

Nonstopdrivel (15h) : Huh. I guess the F-word is censored in this fan shout.

Nonstopdrivel (15h) : Anyone who doesn't hang out in the chat probably smokes pole.

TheKanataThrilla (15h) : GoPackGo Thinking CB is the pick tonight

TheKanataThrilla (15h) : Anyone hanging out in the chat tonight?

Zero2Cool (16h) : whoa...49ers have had trade conversations about both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk

Zero2Cool (16h) : I hope they take a Punter at 9th overall. Be bold!

Mucky Tundra (17h) : I may end up eating those words but I think they need a lot more talent then their 4 picks can provide

Mucky Tundra (17h) : I really hope they stand pat and Draft a WR

Mucky Tundra (17h) : @DMRussini

Mucky Tundra (17h) : The Chicago Bears are very open for business at 9 and telling teams they are ready to move for the right price, per source

buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : Lions extend Penei Soul 4yrs - 112mil

buckeyepackfan (24-Apr) : Lions extend St. Brown 4 years 120mil and

Mucky Tundra (24-Apr) : Now look, trading up to 13 to take a TE might not seem like a good idea later but it will be later!

dfosterf (24-Apr) : (Your trade up mock post)

dfosterf (24-Apr) : Mucky- The only thing fun to watch would be me flipping the f out if Gute goes up to 13 and grabs Brock Bowers, lol

beast (24-Apr) : DT Byron Murphy II, Texas... whom some believe is the next Aaron Donald (or the closest thing to Donald)

Zero2Cool (24-Apr) : What? And who?

Mucky Tundra (24-Apr) : *sad Mucky noises*

Mucky Tundra (24-Apr) : @JoeJHoyt Murphy said he’s been told he won’t slide past pick No. 16.

wpr (23-Apr) : Just about time to watch Sonny Weaver stick it to the seahags. I never get tired of it.

Martha Careful (23-Apr) : *game plan

Martha Careful (23-Apr) : IMHO, not even close. He is not a guy you game play around.

Mucky Tundra (23-Apr) : is Aiyuk worth a 1st rounder?

Zero2Cool (23-Apr) : 49ers are seeking a 1st round pick in exchange for WR Brandon Aiyuk

Mucky Tundra (22-Apr) : Based on Gutes comments, now I don't feel as silly having 13 picks in my mock the other day

Zero2Cool (22-Apr) : Zach Wilson to Broncos.

Zero2Cool (22-Apr) : Gutekunst says he'd love to have 13 or 14 picks. He's trading back huh lol

beast (22-Apr) : Someday we'll have a draft betting scandal

beast (21-Apr) : Sometimes looking extremely amazing, sometimes looking extremely lost

beast (21-Apr) : I haven't looked into the QBs, but some have suggested Maye has some of the most extremely inconsistent tape they've seen

beast (21-Apr) : Well it also sounds like Patriots are listening to trade offers, not that seriously considering any, but listening means they aren't locked

Zero2Cool (21-Apr) : Maye needs to be AFC

Mucky Tundra (21-Apr) : Not liking the idea of the Vikings getting Maye

Zero2Cool (21-Apr) : Vikings HC joked that he may or may not have sent flowers to Bob Kraft. That's where rumor came from.

beast (21-Apr) : Can't tell if this is real or BS, but some rumors about a possible Patriots/Vikings trade for #3 overall

dfosterf (21-Apr) : One playbook to my knowledge. I was shooting for facetious.

beast (20-Apr) : I'm not sure they have different playbooks for different OL positions, and Dillard run blocking is supposedly worse than his pass blocking..

dfosterf (19-Apr) : The only problem with that is he isn't a guard either.

dfosterf (19-Apr) : Put him at right guard. That is where he will be coached. That is where he will compete. He is not even allowed to look at the LT playbook.

dfosterf (18-Apr) : Kidding aside, I hope the best for him.

dfosterf (18-Apr) : Went to a Titans board. One comment there. Not very long. I quote: "LOL" They don't sound overly upset about our aquisition.

beast (18-Apr) : OT Dillard has been absolutely horrible... like OG Newman levels

dfosterf (18-Apr) : Suit him up and have him stand in front of the big board as a draft day cautionary tale.

Please sign in to use Fan Shout

2023 Packers Schedule

Sunday, Sep 10 @ 3:25 PM

Bears

38 - 20

Sunday, Sep 17 @ 12:00 PM

Falcons

24 - 25

Sunday, Sep 24 @ 12:00 PM

SAINTS

18 - 17

Thursday, Sep 28 @ 7:15 PM

LIONS

20 - 34

Monday, Oct 9 @ 7:15 PM

Raiders

13 - 17

Sunday, Oct 22 @ 3:25 PM

Broncos

17 - 19

Sunday, Oct 29 @ 12:00 PM

VIKINGS

10 - 24

Sunday, Nov 5 @ 12:00 PM

RAMS

20 - 3

Sunday, Nov 12 @ 12:00 PM

Steelers

19 - 23

Sunday, Nov 19 @ 12:00 PM

CHARGERS

23 - 20

Thursday, Nov 23 @ 11:30 AM

Lions

29 - 22

Sunday, Dec 3 @ 7:20 PM

CHIEFS

27 - 19

Monday, Dec 11 @ 7:15 PM

Giants

22 - 24

Sunday, Dec 17 @ 12:00 PM

BUCCANEERS

20 - 34

Sunday, Dec 24 @ 12:00 PM

Panthers

33 - 30

Sunday, Dec 31 @ 7:20 PM

Vikings

33 - 10

Sunday, Jan 7 @ 3:25 PM

BEARS

17 - 9

Sunday, Jan 14 @ 3:30 PM

Cowboys

48 - 32

Saturday, Jan 20 @ 7:15 PM

49ers

21 - 24