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Offline HoustonMatt  
#1 Posted : Monday, November 17, 2008 5:22:23 AM(UTC)

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Joined: 9/1/2008(UTC)
As you know, we're "tied" for 1st with the Bears and Vikings. I put "tied" in quotations, because we hold the tie breaker vs both teams. Chicago by virtue of the head-to-head win and Minnesota by virtue of division record. At first glance, I would think that we need to go 5-1 over the next 6 games to win the division, but I don't know that that's true. 4-2 would put us at 9-7 and very well could win the division. So long as we beat the Bears again, 4-2 would do it unless the Bears or Vikings went 5-1. Now take a look at their schedules.

Bears:

@ St Louis
@ Minnesota
vs Jacksonville
vs New Orleans
vs Green Bay
@ Houston

Remember, we're basing our premise on the assumption that we beat the Bears, so that's one loss. Can you see them running the table on the other 3 road games plus 2 home games vs Jacksonville and New Orleans. I don't.

Vikings:

@Jacksonville
vs Chicago
@ Detroit
@ Arizona
vs Atlanta
vs New York Giants

The Vikings have a much tougher schedule. In fact, you could argue that they'll only be favored @ Detroit. The Giants may not be playing for anything in Week 17. Regardless, the Vikings aren't winning 5 of those games and probably not even 4. It also means we should be rooting for Minnesota to beat Chicago in two weeks.

The whole point of this analysis is to show that, assuming a win over the Bears, we only need 3 other wins to win the division. Let's take a look at the schedule.

Green Bay:

@ New Orleans
vs Carolina
vs Houston
@ Jacksonville
@ Chicago
vs Detroit

We assumed our win vs Chicago, so where are the other 3 wins? Houston and Detroit should be 2, so just one of the road games or the home game vs Carolina would get us there. But it's all dependent on us beating the Bears. If you put that in our loss column, we pretty much have to win the other 5.

I guess this whole post can be summarized by one statement:

Whoever wins the Packers/Bears game is likely to win the division.

I also don't see this division being decided UNTIL that Packers/Bears game.
Offline Cheesey  
#2 Posted : Monday, November 17, 2008 11:04:27 AM(UTC)

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The way this season has gone, it may very well come down to the very last game.
Hopefully the Vikings will remain true to form and suffer their normal late season collapse.
Offline TheEngineer  
#3 Posted : Monday, November 17, 2008 11:10:02 AM(UTC)

Rank: Registered
Joined: 8/8/2008(UTC)
Nice analysis mattresell. Indeed, the 2nd Pack/Bears game will be quite important, if not crucial.

But the assumption that we'll beat the Bears is a dangerous one. They're not going to like being sweeped this season, and the Vikings will be desperate to show they won't implode in the 2nd half again.

It's going to be close.
Offline Cheesey  
#4 Posted : Monday, November 17, 2008 11:11:50 AM(UTC)

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" said: Go to Quoted Post
Nice analysis mattresell. Indeed, the 2nd Pack/Bears game will be quite important, if not crucial.

But the assumption that we'll beat the Bears is a dangerous one. They're not going to like being sweeped this season, and the Vikings will be desperate to show they won't implode in the 2nd half again.

It's going to be close.

I agree. The Bears are gonna come out swinging at Soldier Field. If we can do to them there what we did to them yesterday, I think Lovie's "Reign of terror" over us will be officially over.
Offline millertime  
#5 Posted : Monday, November 17, 2008 12:11:43 PM(UTC)

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@ New Orleans W
vs Carolina L
vs Houston [/b]W
@ Jacksonville
L
@ Chicago
W
vs Detroit
W[b]

I think we'd still win the division if the season plays out like this. The tough games will be with Carolina and Jacksonville because of their great running games and solid defenses.

But who knows? Who would have predicted that we'd get smoked by the Falcons at Lambeau and then whoop the Colts a few weeks later. Crazy year in the NFL so far!
Offline obi1  
#6 Posted : Monday, November 17, 2008 12:25:57 PM(UTC)

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I'd say the race is over now.

Packers SHOULD win the rest of 'em. The way they played against the Bears should propel them to a much more of a jelling process.

The Oline looked less mistake prone, the running game looked good and heck even the Run defense looked like it was enthused about playing.

True, Breeze is a force at QB but has he faced the DBs in the caliber of Woody and Harry?

To be honest though, I think we NEED to win 'em all and play like we are capable of going into the playoffs. Otherwise, it will be a quick exit.

The question mark game for me is the other Bears game.
Offline Packnic  
#7 Posted : Monday, November 17, 2008 12:37:33 PM(UTC)

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I still think we need to generate more pass rush than we are currently getting. Without a significant pass rush... I can't call us a legit contender.


I think its there... i just want to see it more.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#8 Posted : Monday, November 17, 2008 12:43:06 PM(UTC)

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I think at BEST we'll go 5 - 1 through the remainder of the six games of the regular season.
Offline bozz_2006  
#9 Posted : Monday, November 17, 2008 1:26:41 PM(UTC)

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" said: Go to Quoted Post
I'd say the race is over now.

Packers SHOULD win the rest of 'em. The way they played against the Bears should propel them to a much more of a jelling process.

The Oline looked less mistake prone, the running game looked good and heck even the Run defense looked like it was enthused about playing.

True, Breeze is a force at QB but has he faced the DBs in the caliber of Woody and Harry?

To be honest though, I think we NEED to win 'em all and play like we are capable of going into the playoffs. Otherwise, it will be a quick exit.

The question mark game for me is the other Bears game.


Harry? hahaha
Offline gbpfan  
#10 Posted : Monday, November 17, 2008 1:57:49 PM(UTC)

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Grant and Jennings think the best is yet to come.I think the Saints can be beat,they will throw allot int the air which will give our corners some interceptions,the jags still think we beat them d-line o-line if they play like they did I like our chances here,Carolina could have lost yesterday to the Lions no less,again think if the pack can keep rolling the Bears think they will be tougher,because of being at home but feel we win I think pack can win it all :thumbright: just by their attitudes means allot.
Offline wpr  
#11 Posted : Monday, November 17, 2008 2:50:27 PM(UTC)

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I was mulling that over this morning myself Matt and came to about the same conclusion.
Here is something that I did not realize.
GB has scored the most points and also given up the least in the NFC "Norris Division".
GB 274/209 +65
Chicago 240/231 +9
Minn 223/234 -11
Detroit- who cares.
I think it bodes well for the Packers as they come together as a team in the final weeks of the season. One thing is for sure. It is going to be a close race.
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