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Offline Zero2Cool  
#1 Posted : Wednesday, August 4, 2010 2:59:12 PM(UTC)
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Listed below are the stats Peyton Manning would need to average for the specified years to start passing Favres records. With amazing numbers, he may begin passing him as early as four years from now. However, most of these records will be passed in five to six years. An asterisk denotes the point that exceeds Mannings current yearly averages.

4 More Years (2013 Season) Age 37: Completions 463 Attempts 820 Yards 4,800, TD 33

5 More Years (2014) Age 38: Completions 370 Attempts 656 Yards 3,840*, TD 26*

6 More Years (2015) Age 39: Completions 308* Attempts 546 Yards 3200*, TD 22*

7 More Years (2016) Age 40: Completions 264* Attempts 469* Yards 2743*, TD 19*
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Offline gopackers08  
#2 Posted : Wednesday, August 4, 2010 3:26:33 PM(UTC)
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Not only will Manning pass Favre's numbers, but he will crush them. There is no doubt in my mind that Manning is a better stats guy than Favre. Also, I'm saying that only if Favre doesn't keep coming back year after year. But as the stats stand right now I think Manning will easily do it.

Manning also has had many fewer injuries than Favre has and he could play into his young 40s.

Just my opinion.
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Offline Zero2Cool  
#3 Posted : Wednesday, August 4, 2010 3:28:56 PM(UTC)
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It'll only take one Super Bowl win to pass Brett in rings.


I threw some numbers together to get an idea of how long it might take.

I think the TD record might be the only one in real jeopardy.
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Offline Pack93z  
#4 Posted : Wednesday, August 4, 2010 3:37:41 PM(UTC)
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This here.. the record book, is something I really care less about tied to an individual athlete.. that includes Brett Favre.

Stats in this game are so interdependent upon your teammates, that IMO it is one of the biggest misconceptions when judging talent. Don't are about the position.. this sport is the ultimate team sport where IMO you can't rely on stats to determine a players place in history.

It isn't Basketball or Baseball where situations are more segmented upon the individual.

So that is a long winded way to say I don't a rats ass if Peyton catches him or not. ;)
I think when there's enough will and aggression, there's no shortage of talent either.

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Offline Zero2Cool  
#5 Posted : Wednesday, August 4, 2010 3:43:00 PM(UTC)
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I wasn't saying one was better than the other based on stats, or saying it at all. I simply posed a question, because stats interest me. Oddly enough, you have no interest and said more than I did. :)
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Offline gopackers08  
#6 Posted : Wednesday, August 4, 2010 3:46:11 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: " Go to Quoted Post
This here.. the record book, is something I really care less about tied to an individual athlete.. that includes Brett Favre.

Stats in this game are so interdependent upon your teammates, that IMO it is one of the biggest misconceptions when judging talent. Don't are about the position.. this sport is the ultimate team sport where IMO you can't rely on stats to determine a players place in history.

It isn't Basketball or Baseball where situations are more segmented upon the individual.

So that is a long winded way to say I don't a rats ass if Peyton catches him or not. ;)




I disagree, while it may not be quite as important as other sports its still a proper metric of talent. To be in the league for so many years as a starting QB means that no one ever toook your spot which means you were always the best option.
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Offline Pack93z  
#7 Posted : Wednesday, August 4, 2010 3:59:20 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: " Go to Quoted Post
I wasn't saying one was better than the other based on stats, or saying it at all. I simply posed a question, because stats interest me. Oddly enough, you have no interest and said more than I did. :)


LOL.. like I said.. a long winded dis of the stats arguments that spawn within this game.. sooner or later it will turn into the whom is better.. or the top 5 all time QB's based on stats.

While stats have some longevity or a player striving within a team and system value.. IMO, it doesn't justify the natural talent of players very well..

Just one quick example.. anyone that thinks Emmitt Smith was a better back than Sander, Payton, Simms, Dorsett, or Brown based on stats, IMO, is barking up the wrong tree.

One has to look no further than the offensive line, QB, and offense that Smith was dropped into verse say a Sanders or Payton.. case closed.
I think when there's enough will and aggression, there's no shortage of talent either.

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Offline Zero2Cool  
#8 Posted : Wednesday, August 4, 2010 4:23:39 PM(UTC)
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You pulled the Barry Sanders card!!!!
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Offline Pack93z  
#9 Posted : Wednesday, August 4, 2010 4:39:51 PM(UTC)
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I can throw out others if need be.. but the Smith one is just low hanging fruit.. IMO.. Smith probably doesn't crack the all time top 25 list let alone anything else.

In this game.. player stats for the most part are skewed by their playing situation and environment.

But I like the Sanders card. ;)
I think when there's enough will and aggression, there's no shortage of talent either.

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Offline Zero2Cool  
#10 Posted : Wednesday, August 4, 2010 4:43:07 PM(UTC)
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lol
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Offline zombieslayer  
#11 Posted : Thursday, August 5, 2010 12:30:18 AM(UTC)
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I love stats and wish Packers owned every single one of them, but especially Lombardi trophies.

Favre was a Packer for most of his career. Manning never was a Packer. Now if Rodgers and Manning swap teams, I'll be rooting for Manning to break Favre's records. If not, I hope Favre keeps playing and puts them out of reach.

But like I said, Lombardi trophies are more important and that's a team record.
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Offline CDNRodgersfan  
#12 Posted : Thursday, August 5, 2010 2:49:33 AM(UTC)
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I'm not sure though if Manning will be as good as Favre at a later age as he doesn't have the mobility or arm strength Brett has but his smarts might make up for it. Also I feel the Colts are due for some down years as no teams stay on top for a long time anymore
Offline blueleopard  
#13 Posted : Thursday, August 5, 2010 3:00:31 AM(UTC)
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Peyton Manning is prototypical NFL QB. Brett isn't.

I've seen Peyton Manning make great plays because the guy is an expert at what he does.

I've seen Brett Favre make great plays because the guy won't quit, no matter what's stacked against him.

Beating Peyton Manning is a systematic approach. Beating Brett Favre is about how much you wanna do it.

I really doubt Manning is going to be throwing the balls Brett throws now at age 40. But he CAN catch the records. I just don't see anybody else playing this long.
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Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#14 Posted : Thursday, August 5, 2010 3:07:28 AM(UTC)
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The decades they play in also means a lot. 14 of the 17 players ranked higher than Favre on the all time list are Active Players. Including Jeff Garcia and Daunte Culpepper. Now is a great time to be a QB.

Life time accumulation records don't mean much if you play twice as long as the vast majority of QBs. He also got more ints, more fumbles, more sacks, more ints in the playoffs... I would be more interested in things like TD/TO ratio, Yards/TO, Completion percentage, QB rating and stuff like that. Even that is subject to the team they play with. Look at Tom Brady and Matt Cassell. The Patriots make them both look great, Cassell goes to the Chiefs and his rating drops 20 points. Bradys line starts to break down and their D retires and he has trouble scoring.

The one stat that impresses me is the consecutive games. No matter what, that is out standing and will probably never be beaten.
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Offline Nonstopdrivel  
#15 Posted : Thursday, August 5, 2010 3:10:50 AM(UTC)
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Dexter, I've been fighting this fight long before you arrived here, and I can tell you it's a losing battle. People are blinded by the raw numbers -- the life time accumulation records, as you call them -- and never put them in the context of the ratios you mention.

Ah, well, stand back-to-back with me and we'll bravely wield our swords together. ;)
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Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#16 Posted : Thursday, August 5, 2010 3:20:22 AM(UTC)
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We few, we happy few, we band of brothers, for he today that sheds blood (theirs, not ours) with me, Shall be my brother.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.

Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#17 Posted : Thursday, August 5, 2010 11:50:10 AM(UTC)
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I don't care about the importance of the stats.
I don't care about the validity of the stats.
I don't care what anyone thinks about stats in relationship to greatness.


What I'm asking is ... will Peyton be able to catch Brett record wise? I think he can, but I don't think he will.

Some of you have ADD worse than me, dayum!!
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Offline Wade  
#18 Posted : Thursday, August 5, 2010 1:39:35 PM(UTC)
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To answer your question, Kevin...

Yes, I think Peyton will catch Favre record-wise.

Favre might keep the consecutive game record, but I'm skeptical of that, too, unless Manning (i) gets hurt before Favre retires, or (ii) somehow ends up his career with another team because Indy has a brain fart and doesn't pay him between now and next year.

Why do I think Manning will break the game streak? Because he just doesn't get hit as much as most quarterbacks. Part of the reason Favre hasn't been injured is that his footwork as a QB tends to suck (by pro standards). Manning is textbook in his form, but he still rarely gets hit -- partly because he's got a damn good line in front of him, partly because he's so smart in finding receivers/getting rid of the ball fast.
And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
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Offline zombieslayer  
#19 Posted : Thursday, August 5, 2010 2:25:19 PM(UTC)
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Dexter & NSD - I'm actually on your side on this one. Different eras are entirely different. Another thing people forget is the blocking schemes. Pass protect is much, much better than Bart Starr's and Joe Namath's days. Makes a huge difference. Heck, it's even much better today than it was 10 years ago.

Zero - Depends. If Favre keeps playing, Manning will eventually take an injury that's too severe to continue. I'm of course not hoping for anyone to get hurt. I'm just saying the percentages. It's a freak occurrence that Favre has played this long. Don't know if it will happen again any time soon.

CDN has a good point. Do you really think the Colts can be good this long? What happens when the OL starts to taper off? Football is still a team game.
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Offline Nonstopdrivel  
#20 Posted : Thursday, August 5, 2010 5:57:19 PM(UTC)
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I can't be arsed to sift through all the archives at the moment, but several months ago I did an analysis of every record Favre holds and exactly how long it would take Manning (assuming career averages, of course) to beat them. At that time, Manning had the potential to start breaking some records in as few as three years, though he would have required four to five for most. Favre's subsequent return obviously puts a wrench into that analysis and will extends the timeline a bit.
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Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#21 Posted : Friday, August 6, 2010 2:51:44 AM(UTC)
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Manning has a chance to beat them. He is not taking the pounding and will not be as beat up. I doubt the consecutive record will fall but all the rest, sure. The point that 14 active players are ranked ahead of Favre tells me since he is the oldest one of the bunch and they all are out perfoming him, if they hang around long enough every record will fall. Except maybe the int record. Although Cutler is on pace to match every one of Favres records. Sacks, Ints and Fumbles.

Rodgers is already breaking Favres single game and single season marks.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.

Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Offline Nonstopdrivel  
#22 Posted : Friday, August 6, 2010 3:55:26 AM(UTC)
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Favre's single-season and single-game records were never exactly stellar anyway.

For example, as far as I know, he has only thrown for 400 yards once in his career (December 5, 1993), a game in which the Packers were trounced by the Bears 30-17. In fairness, he did once throw for 399 yards on December 22, 2003, a game in which the Packers destroyed the Raiders 41-7. Contrast those numbers to, say, Dan Marino, who had 15 such games in his career (which was, by the way, much shorter than Favre's), or Peyton Manning, who has had 9, or Joe Montana, who had 7.

Other than his consecutive-starts record, I think Favre's most impressive record may be consecutive seasons with 3000 or more passing yards. Peyton Manning has set the standard, though, by passing for 4000 or more yards almost every season of his career.

Clip somewhat related:

[mp3 width=400 height=20]http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/images/01/25/FavreINT.mp3[/mp3]
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Offline Nonstopdrivel  
#23 Posted : Friday, August 6, 2010 4:14:13 AM(UTC)
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By the way, Aaron Rodgers' passer rating (121.3) for his 422-yard performance against the Arizona Cardinals on January 10, 2010, was the third-highest for a 400-yard game in NFL history, behind only Peyton Manning's 145.7 rating on January 9, 2005 (458 yards) and Dan Marino's 135.4 rating on January 6, 1985 (421 yards).

Here's an interesting statistical anomaly that may only appeal to a dorky mind like mine: All of the 14 highest-rated 400-yard performances were played between December 29 and January 30 of the season in which they occurred. I would be curious to see an explanation of this phenomenon.
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Offline RedSoxExcel  
#24 Posted : Friday, August 6, 2010 5:29:11 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: " Go to Quoted Post
By the way, Aaron Rodgers' passer rating (121.3) for his 422-yard performance against the Arizona Cardinals on January 10, 2010, was the third-highest for a 400-yard game in NFL history, behind only Peyton Manning's 145.7 rating on January 9, 2005 (458 yards) and Dan Marino's 135.4 rating on January 6, 1985 (421 yards).

Here's an interesting statistical anomaly that may only appeal to a dorky mind like mine: All of the 14 highest-rated 400-yard performances were played between December 29 and January 30 of the season in which they occurred. I would be curious to see an explanation of this phenomenon.


You call me a Favre lover but I don't think the stats QBs put up these days are real. Favre had a 107.2 QB rating at 40?! Is he THAT much better than he was in 1995-1997 or has the system changed? I made a thread in the NFL section about this but I think everyone needs to take the QB stats these days with a grain of salt given the QB friendly league.
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Offline Zero2Cool  
#25 Posted : Friday, August 6, 2010 5:51:55 PM(UTC)
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The league favors the rules towards better passing.
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