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Arrigo  
#1 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 1:19:02 AM(UTC)
I think the Packers will receive a 4th round comp pick for Cullen Jenkins, a 4th for Daryn Colledge, a 7th for Brandon Jackson & Jason Spitz to go along with the Jets 7th round pick they obtained at the end of training camp.

Usually I don't like to project trades in the draft since no one knows exactly how much a team (GM) values a certain player vs a draft picks, but I did in this mock draft because I wanted to try something different. I have the Dolphins trading their 2nd round pick (42nd overall) to the Packers for Matt Flynn. I also have Packers trading out of round 1 when the player they want (Cox) is drafted and the Rams, being the team that deals back into round 1 to add another player, a CB or OL (depending on who their fist 2 selections are) that is slipping is too good to pass up.

This draft I see Thompson focusing on the defense but trying to add quality players when he can on offense. None of the offensive players would be expected to make an instant impact in 2012, unlike last year with Randall Cobb, rather fill-out the roster and provide even more depth to an already deep team.

I think the following players will be traded/cut/released, not re-signed or retire:

Chad Clifton
Scott Wells
Matt Flynn (trade to Miami for 2nd Round pick (42nd overall) in 2012)
Ryan Grant
Jarrett Bush
Erik Walden
Frank Zombo
Pat Lee


I think the following players will be or have been re-signed

JerMichael Finley (re-signed 2 years $14+ million)
Donald Driver (restructured contract)
Howard Green


Mock Draft V.5.0


Round 1: Trade to Rams for 2nd round pick (#33), 3rd round pick (#66) and 5th round pick (#99)



Round 2 (1): Steven Gilmore-CB- South Carolina
Gilmore has all the tools the Packers look for in a corner (including the dreads) and the make-up they look for as a player. He has the size/speed and has fluid hips. He is physical and not afraid to come up and play run support. With Charles Woodson getting older and Sam Shields regressing a bit in 2011, the Packers need to plan for the future. Gilmore and Davon House (who the team is still high on) will give the Packers better depth and a couple players to contribute on ST as well.



Round 2 (2): Ronnell Lewis- OLB- Oklahoma
The Packers need to upgrade the pass rush opposite of Clay Matthews and Lewis is the perfect fit and person to do that. McCarthy inted at his combine press conference that he would like to get faster, tougher and have better tackling on the that side of the ball, Lewis provides all three. He has all world talent but there are questions about his attitude which will cause him to slip into the 2nd or even 3rd round. Lewis was late to 9 meetings (5 optional) while at OU as well as got into a "heated conversation" with the then DC Venerable. He also at times plays undisciplined. Lewis loves to hit and he plays the run exceptionally well. He has enough speed to become a good pass rusher but needs to needs to work on his pass rush moves and Lewis has really good coverage skills as well. He can also be an All-Pro player on ST as well.


Round 2 (3): Brandon Thompson- DE- Clemson
The man who caused a lot of debate here on PC. I heard the Packers were all over him at the Senior Bowl and really like him. He has prototypical size (6'2/311) for a 5 technique and is a beast. He is a monster against the run and has a surprising burst and improving pass rushing skills. Thompson would be an instant upgrade for the Packers d-line which needs some more talent.


Round 3 (1): Michael Brewster- C- Ohio St.
I suspect Scott Wells will leave via FA and only Thompson knows if he bring in a FA to take over for Wells. But Brewster brings that nasty that the Packers O-Line needs more of. He has great size and is surprisingly athletic for a Center. He would be a great compliment to the Packers young O-Line that has gotten better over the past few years.


Round 3 (2): Markelle Martin- S- Oklahoma St
Martin is a physical Safety that would add depth to the Packers secondary, in-particular the safety position with Nick Collins future uncertain. Martin is projected as a 3rd rounder but he could move up or down depending on teams needs. He isn't the ball hawk that the Packers have/had in Collins, but he can cover and plays the run extremely well.


Round 4 (1): Cyrus Grey- RB- Texas A&M
Grey fits the Packers running scheme nicely and would be a solid compliment to James Starks. He had a great combine capped off by running a 4.47. Some scouts question if he can be an every down back, but with the Packers and Mike McCarthy using a RB by committee, Grey would be fine.



Round 4 (2): Ryan Broyles- WR- Oklahoma
Broyles has the ability to be a 1st round guy but he tore his knee up his senior year and he will most likely start the year on PUP or IR. He reminds me of Greg Jennings, he's fluid, soft hands and understands the WR position. At this point he'd be a steal IF he were to be there.


Round 4 (3): Akiem Hicks- DL- Regina
Hicks is a RAW prospect that has crazy tools and off the chart measurable's (6'4,/324, 84' wingspan). He was supposed to attend LSU but there were some recruiting issues that didn't allow Hicks to go play for the Tigers. Hicks needs work on technique and displays nice overall quickness. He has the look of a sleeper and potential to be a stud.


Round 5 (1): Nick Foles- QB- Arizona
The Packers need to fins a replacement for Matt Flynn and Foles has the size, arm strength and skill set that could make him a player to watch if he is coached up. McCarthy & Co. could really bring the best out on Foles and make him a player that, in time, could start for an NFL team.


Round 5 (2): Matt Reynolds- OT- BYU
Reynolds has the size and seems to have the ability to be a solid pro prospect. The Packers don't need him to start right away, they have Bulaga and Newhouse/Sherrod to hold it down. But with Sherrod possibly starting the season on the PUP list they do need to add depth and Reynolds would provide that.


Round 6: Jerry Franklin- ILB- Arkansas
The Packers like what DJ Smith & Robert Francois bring to the table as a back-up's, but adding Franklin to the mix in training camp would only bring out the best in the players vying for a spot on the team as a back-up or ST player.


Round 7 (1): Chris Owusu- WR- Stanford
Owusu blew up the combine and has all kinds of ability but he got concussed last year against USC. For some reason the Stanford staff allowed him to play a week later only to get concussed again. If his medical records check out alright he could get drafted higher.



Round 7 (2): Chris Greenwood- CB- Albion
Greenwood has the size (6'1/196) and projected speed (4.37) to intrigue teams late in the draft. The level of competition is a huge question with Greenwood. He literally shut down half of the field for 3 years while attending Albion. Greenwood also has the type of personality that would make him a perfect fit in the Green Bay locker room, humble, hard working and eager to learn. This kid is more of an athlete then CB right now, but if Joe Whitt Jr. can tap into his potential like he did Shields a couple years ago, the Packers would be suddenly deep at CB.


Round 7 (3): Julian Miller- OLB- West Virginia
Bruce Irvin gets all kinds of credit and is the higher rated prospect but Miller has a knack to get to the QB.


Round 7 (4): Kelcie McCray- S- Arkansas St.
At this point in the draft you want to try and add depth and maybe catch lightning in a bottle. McCray had a nice combine and his tape is even better. He is a player that is starting to climb up draft boards.
nerdmann  
#2 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 2:28:06 AM(UTC)
They're still high on Davon House?
Nonstopdrivel  
#3 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 7:12:23 AM(UTC)
Arrigo said: Go to Quoted Post
I have the Dolphins trading their 2nd round pick (42nd overall) to the Packers for Matt Flynn.

Thanks for all the effort you put into this -- you obviously know a hell of a lot more about college football than I could ever hope to know -- but I have to say that this line alone calls into question the credibility of this entire article for me. Do you seriously believe the Packers will have signed Matt Flynn prior to the draft? And that having put themselves at risk for $14 million to do so, they will settle for a 2nd-round pick? I understand you wanted to do "something different" this time around, but it still needs to make sense, especially when you have a poker player with ice water running through his veins like Ted Thompson at the helm.
dhazer  
#4 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 9:48:30 AM(UTC)
I knew this was a bullshit article when I read "This draft I see Thompson focusing on the defense but trying to add quality players when he can on offense. None of the offensive players would be expected to make an instant impact in 2012, unlike last year with Randall Cobb, rather fill-out the roster and provide even more depth to an already deep team."


We need tons of help on defense but draft offensive players? We are far from a deep team, 2010 was a fluke year and we had everything fall into place for us. In 2009 our defense sucked and once again we sucked in 2011. I personally don't think this is as deep as everyone claims. Our offensive line is still a mess, we don't have a solid running game, and our defense wouldn't even be great in college. We need to stop kidding ourselves and realize we have a lot of holes on this team and that includes the coaching staff.
gbguy20  
#5 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 10:56:20 AM(UTC)
Interesting read regardless whether I agreed with what you have said/predicted.
Dexter_Sinister  
#6 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 12:09:51 PM(UTC)
dhazer said: Go to Quoted Post
I knew this was a bullshit article when I read "This draft I see Thompson focusing on the defense but trying to add quality players when he can on offense. None of the offensive players would be expected to make an instant impact in 2012, unlike last year with Randall Cobb, rather fill-out the roster and provide even more depth to an already deep team." We need tons of help on defense but draft offensive players? We are far from a deep team, 2010 was a fluke year and we had everything fall into place for us. In 2009 our defense sucked and once again we sucked in 2011. I personally don't think this is as deep as everyone claims. Our offensive line is still a mess, we don't have a solid running game, and our defense wouldn't even be great in college. We need to stop kidding ourselves and realize we have alot of wholes on this team and that includes the coaching staff.



A hole lot of wholes.

They were so bad that they were only able to win 19 straight games without ever trailing in the 4th quarter. The second longest streak in the history of the NFL. I can see a team getting lucky for a game or even a playoffs. But for 19 straight games, that is ridiculous to say it was all luck. The NFL has too much parity for any team to be that lucky.

They were about in the middle of the NFL in net points. If they can manage to stop a couple big plays a game, they will be back to where they were in '10.

The running game was about average for a Super Bowl winning team.

The dropped passes cost them more games than the yards they gave up on D. One of the reasons I was hoping they would be able to activate Gurley. He was reported to have hands like spiderman. Nelson and Jennings were above average in not dropping the ball. But as a whole, the team sucked.

If the team had managed to drop only an average percentage of passes, Rodgers would have had a couple hundred more yards, a couple fewer ints, a couple more TDs and a couple more wins.

I don't know if you understand how good of a year Rodgers really had. What he did was already a record. Even with that handicap of having 8% of his passes dropped, he had the best year ever with a passer rating of 122.5. Give him an average number of drops and he would have had a rating over 130. It would be one of those records that stands for half a century like Don Hutson's.
buckeyepackfan  
#7 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 1:04:04 PM(UTC)
Not going to get into "reason" argument, Packers were 15-1 and got beat at home in playoffs. Shit happens.
Giants were the better team that day.

What I don't see is Ted trading down and accumulating and using 15 draft picks.

Most here agree the "needs" are on The Defensive side.

I see Ted going the other way with all the mid-rnd draft picks, meaning he will find someone looking to drop in the draft and package a 2nd, 3rd, and 3 4th rnd picks for a 1st and 2nd or. Something like that and he will do it again with his 5th and 6th rnd picks to move into the 3rd rnd.

When it is all said and done I believe Ted will end up with 6 or 7 draft picks not 15.

Scenario 1.......Scenario 2

2 1st............1 1st
1 2nd............2 2nd
1 3rd............1 3rd
1 5th............1 4th
1 6th............1 6th
.................1 7th

1st 3 picks will be DL, CB, OLB, not necessarily in that order but those positions


with other 3 or 4 Ted will draft 2 O-linemen(center being priority) another olb, a db and/or qb depending on 6 or 7 picks.

I already predicted Packers would take the DL/OLB out of Syracuse (Chandler Jones)with their 1st rnd pick so I will stay with that.
zombieslayer  
#8 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 2:05:40 PM(UTC)
What we really need is depth and battles/possible upgrades at every position. So I could see the "lots of draft picks" scenario.
Nonstopdrivel  
#9 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 2:48:44 PM(UTC)
I don't see the Packers drafting an abnormally large number of players this year. They are relatively tight on cap room this offseason -- more so than most years in the Thompson era -- and signing a larger number of rookies would require cutting several established incumbents. I see the Packers going for immediate contributors wherever possible.
Packers_Finland  
#10 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 2:53:53 PM(UTC)
Nonstopdrivel said: Go to Quoted Post
I don't see the Packers drafting and abnormally large number of players this year. They are relatively tight on cap room this offseason -- more so than most years in the Thompson era -- and signing a larger number of rookies would require cutting several established incumbents. I see the Packers going for immediate contributors wherever possible.


Agreed. For this team, I'll take 3-4 early picks over loads and loads of late rounders. We have a couple of clear holes that need to be filled. No need to go apeshit and start cleaning house.
dhazer  
#11 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 2:58:37 PM(UTC)
Dexter_Sinister said: Go to Quoted Post
A hole lot of wholes.

They were so bad that they were only able to win 19 straight games without ever trailing in the 4th quarter. The second longest streak in the history of the NFL. I can see a team getting lucky for a game or even a playoffs. But for 19 straight games, that is ridiculous to say it was all luck. The NFL has too much parity for any team to be that lucky.

They were about in the middle of the NFL in net points. If they can manage to stop a couple big plays a game, they will be back to where they were in '10.

The running game was about average for a Super Bowl winning team.

The dropped passes cost them more games than the yards they gave up on D. One of the reasons I was hoping they would be able to activate Gurley. He was reported to have hands like spiderman. Nelson and Jennings were above average in not dropping the ball. But as a whole, the team sucked.

If the team had managed to drop only an average percentage of passes, Rodgers would have had a couple hundred more yards, a couple fewer ints, a couple more TDs and a couple more wins.

I don't know if you understand how good of a year Rodgers really had. What he did was already a record. Even with that handicap of having 8% of his passes dropped, he had the best year ever with a passer rating of 122.5. Give him an average number of drops and he would have had a rating over 130. It would be one of those records that stands for half a century like Don Hutson's.



Dex you made my point for me without realizing it. If it wasn't for Rodgers having such a great year we could've been a 4-12 team.

Nonstopdrivel  
#12 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 3:05:47 PM(UTC)
And yet another team, with an equally atrocious defense, was able to reach the Super Bowl simply by tightening up their defensive play in the playoffs. It certainly wasn't because of their quarterback prowess. After putting up brilliant statistics against the Broncos, who were more or less patsies offensively, Brady sucked against the Ravens. And while his overall numbers against the Giants were more than acceptable, anyone watching that game knows Brady was more or less a non-factor after that sack.
Dexter_Sinister  
#13 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 3:18:58 PM(UTC)
dhazer said: Go to Quoted Post
Dex you made my point for me without realizing it. If it wasn't for Rodgers having such a great year we could've been a 4-12 team.



"Could have" is a pretty broad term. We also "could have" gone 19-0 if we had fewer drops. When you start altering reality, anything is possible. What is Probable though?

As far as probability, the net points of our D were better than average. If we had an average QB producing an average amount of points, we should be overall average (actually a little above). It is more like 8-8 or 9-7 if we had an average QB.

We also had a slightly below average strength of schedule. So factoring in that, we were probably about a 9-7 to 10-6 team if you throw out our O and give us an average one.

What are the odds we would have an average QB even without Rodgers?. What are the odds Rodgers would be an average QB in any given year?

That is where the more unrealistic hypothetical scenario lies.
nerdmann  
#14 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 3:28:41 PM(UTC)
Nonstopdrivel said: Go to Quoted Post
I don't see the Packers drafting an abnormally large number of players this year. They are relatively tight on cap room this offseason -- more so than most years in the Thompson era -- and signing a larger number of rookies would require cutting several established incumbents. I see the Packers going for immediate contributors wherever possible.


Agreed, but I don't think Ted will necessarily be going for "immediate contributors." Maybe one or two of them, but I don't see that many holes on this team.
wpr  
#15 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 6:18:40 PM(UTC)
You did a great job putting together a list of players. I won't criticize any of your choices but I do agree with NonStop. I don't see GB resigning Flynn and then trading him. You could be right.
DakotaT  
#16 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 6:49:33 PM(UTC)
Joe Arrigo, I love to read your stuff. But I usually do so over at Chatters as a lurker - but don't tell Zero cause he'll get all possessive like an insane woman. Thanks for coming over here and helping out my boys with some new material. I really enjoy your OTS columns, btw aren't you due for one soon?
Zero2Cool  
#17 Posted : Sunday, March 4, 2012 7:48:27 PM(UTC)
DakotaT said: Go to Quoted Post
Joe Arrigo, I love to read your stuff. But I usually do so over at Chatters as a lurker - but don't tell Zero cause he'll get all possessive like an insane woman. Thanks for coming over here and helping out my boys with some new material. I really enjoy your OTS columns, btw aren't you due for one soon?


YOU DIRTY STINKY ROTTEN PINEAPPLE SMELLING FROG LICKING TRAITOR!!!
Pack93z  
#18 Posted : Monday, March 5, 2012 8:07:00 AM(UTC)
A couple of jokes


Quote:
A woman hears from her doctor that she has only half a year to live. The doctor advises her to marry a beekeeper and to move with him to Minnesota. The woman asks: "Will this cure my illness?" The doctor replies: "No, but the half year will seem pretty long."


Quote:
A traveler wandering on an island inhabited by cannibals comes upon a butcher shop. This shop specialized in human brains sorted out according to source. The sign in the shop read:

Artists' Brains $9/lb
Philosophers' Brains $12/lb
Scientists' Brains $15/lb
Beekeepers' Brains $100/lb

Upon reading the sign, the traveler noted, "My, those beekeepers' brains are expensive - they must be very powerful!" The butcher replied, "Not really. They're expensive because it takes so many beekeepers to get one pound of brains!!"



Quote:
A young man showed up to work for the old beekeeper. First day on the job. The beekeeper says, "Paint all those bee hives." The young man looks at all that work and says, "You don't seem to realize - I have a College Education." The old beekeeper thinks for a minute and says, "I'm sorry. I'll show you how to hold the paint brush."



Anyway... on topic.

For years.. I spent an abundant amount of time on kids coming out and which ones would fit into the system. Looked at all the clips I could find on kids.. made serious efforts and trying to predict whom we would take and how the first round would play out.

I always knew the odds were stacked against you getting much correct, but the last decade or so with the CBA not protecting the teams interest at the top of the draft, you could at least fairly predict the first 10 to 15 picks.

Now with the CBA reworked and teams not as gun shy about moving up into the blue chip spots of the draft, it will make it nearly impossible to even venture a guess.

And I like it.. but it will squash my ambition to partake into Mock drafts even more.

Give me a ticket inside a draft room with some real insight that may change.. but I don't see that ticket coming.
Yared-Yam  
#19 Posted : Monday, March 5, 2012 8:08:59 AM(UTC)
Quote:
Round 2 (2): Ronnell Lewis- OLB- Oklahoma
The Packers need to upgrade the pass rush opposite of Clay Matthews and Lewis is the perfect fit and person to do that. McCarthy inted at his combine press conference that he would like to get faster, tougher and have better tackling on the that side of the ball, Lewis provides all three. He has all world talent but there are questions about his attitude which will cause him to slip into the 2nd or even 3rd round. Lewis was late to 9 meetings (5 optional) while at OU as well as got into a "heated conversation" with the then DC Venerable. He also at times plays undisciplined. Lewis loves to hit and he plays the run exceptionally well. He has enough speed to become a good pass rusher but needs to needs to work on his pass rush moves and Lewis has really good coverage skills as well. He can also be an All-Pro player on ST as well.


That sure screams Packer Person to me.
Stevetarded  
#20 Posted : Monday, March 5, 2012 8:33:38 AM(UTC)
dhazer said: Go to Quoted Post
I knew this was a bullshit article when I read "This draft I see Thompson focusing on the defense but trying to add quality players when he can on offense. None of the offensive players would be expected to make an instant impact in 2012, unlike last year with Randall Cobb, rather fill-out the roster and provide even more depth to an already deep team."


We need tons of help on defense but draft offensive players? We are far from a deep team, 2010 was a fluke year and we had everything fall into place for us. In 2009 our defense sucked and once again we sucked in 2011. I personally don't think this is as deep as everyone claims. Our offensive line is still a mess, we don't have a solid running game, and our defense wouldn't even be great in college. We need to stop kidding ourselves and realize we have a lot of holes on this team and that includes the coaching staff.


Well he was referring to the offense which is indeed pretty damn deep considering they obliterated a playoff team without the #1 WR and starting QB. Not to mention the line in that game consisted of the 2nd string LT, LG, and 4th string RT.
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