Join Our Green Bay Packers Interactive Community!

We have been providing fans with the best source of Packers information since 2006!
Your participation is greatly anticipated!
Login or Register.
5 Pages123>»
Options
View
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline NodakPaul  
#1 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 12:49:20 PM(UTC)
NodakPaul

Rank: Fresh Cheesehead

Joined: 8/18/2008(UTC)


This is something I do on pp.o occasionally, and since we are opening against the pack, I figure I would share it over here too. I make every attempt to be objective when I do these, so I expect Vikings fans to say I am giving the Packers too much credit, and the Packer fans will accuse me of wearing purple glasses. :)

I know there is one more preseason game before the opener, but let's be real. The 4th doesn't mean much. So I figured I am ready to throw my two cents into the ring for the opener. Feel free to disagree and pick apart anything that you want. The point of this post is to start a conversation regarding how select parts of the Vikings will fare against the Packers team they will face in two weeks.

Vikings Passing Defense vs Packers Passing Offense
Edge: None

For the Pack, Driver and Jennings can be difference makers, and even though Rodgers is new to the starting spot, this is his fourth year in the system. HOwever, the Packers OL is in a bad spot. Not only have they not given the QB any time so far in preseason, Scott Wells was also hampered by a torso injury throughout preseason. If he can't start, expect Spitz to continue to fill in at center. With the extent of Josh Sitton's knee injury still unknown, we could be looking at Barbre and Colledge as the two startign guards this year. If the OL was in better shape, the edge would go to the Packers here. But because of the OL, it is a tie.
On the Vikings side, I am not going to cite Minnesota's last place ranking in total passing yards last year because that stat is skewed by the run defense. Sharper and Madieu Williams are still learning to work with each other, and they haven't been on the field together a lot in the preseason. Griffin is looking better, but still needs some polishing at the CB position. Jared Allen will definitely bring the pressure, and will get at least one sack. The Vikings easily have one of the best DLs in the league, and that should translate into a much better passing defense.

Vikings Rushing Defense vs Packers Rushing Offense
Edge: Vikings

Don't forget that Minnesota was the runaway #1 rushing defense from last year. However, the addition of Jared Allen to the Vikings DL changed the way that they attack the run. He uses a fundamentally different style than Udeze did, and his wide outside rush makes some gaps bigger. With that being said however, the Vikings are still fielding a very stout rushing D, and should have the edge here. Against the Steelers, the Vikings defense held the running game in check all game long.
Last year for the Packers, Grant had a great game against the Vikings. In fact, he had a great second half of the season. Was he a one year wonder or something genuine? Hard to tell right now, since he held out of most of TC with a contract dispute, and has yet to touch the ball in preseason. Until he proves otherwise, I think he over performed last year, and will regress this year.

Vikings Passing Offense vs Packers Passing Defense
Edge: Packers

Tarvaris Jackson has looked good so far this year, but the limited time he has seen in preseason can't erase the fact that the Vikings passing offense was one of the worst in the NFL last year. Tjack hurt his knee in the second preseason game, which forced him to sit out the third. He will most likely be back for the season opener, but how much playing/practice time he will get in before that remains to be seen. The Vikings are counting on the continued maturation of TJack and Rice, as well as the addition of Berrian to make a difference. One substantial improvement to look for this year is the use of Adrian Peterson on passing plays. Last year his pass blocking skills left a LOT to be desired. He rarely was asked to pass block or run routes in college, and it showed at the NFL level. Every time AD was on the field, defenses knew that it was going to be a running play. That has changed this year, as AD spent much of the off season working in these areas. Look for the Vikings to be sporting a deadly play action this year.
For the Packers, Kampman can still get to a QB, AJ Hawk is awesome on the weak side, and Woodson and Harris make a pretty good CB combo. However, Hawk is currently sidelined with a chest sprain and may be out for the opener. Harris was exposed during the NFC Championship game last year, but still brings a good game. Bigby rolled his ankle in the third preseason game, but will likely be back in time for the opener. The passing D is probably the Packers' strongest point in 2008.

Vikings Rushing Offense vs Packers Rushing Defense
Edge: Vikings

Adrian Peterson. Not much needs to be said. The Vikings are bringing back the most prolific running back duo in team history, with AD and Chester Taylor, and they are running behind that monster offensive line that is ideal for run blocking. Assuming the Vikings passing offense isn't horrible, they will be seeing fewer 8 and 9 man fronts, That will mean more big games for last year's offensive rookie of the year. Green Bay fans will likely fall back to last year and point out that AD was shut down even before his injury. While this is true, history shows that AD tends to be at his best in the 4th quarter. Peterson will be looking to redeem himself against the Packers this year, and barring injury (knock on wood) he stands a good chance to do so.
The Packers rushing D isn't exactly a cake walk though. Johnny Jolly does a good job of plugging up the middle, and AJ Hawk seems to be everywhere. However, with Hawk's status for the opener in question, this boads well for the Vikings.

Special Teams
Edge: None

Not a lot to talk about in regards to the special teams. This is a night, outdoor game, which negates a lot of the kicking and punting advantages. Both teams have seen some nice returns in preseason - Jordy Nelson for the Packers looks good. But I won't give an edge here simply because there is not enough info to go on yet.

Overall
Slight Edge: Vikings

It is very close. The Vikings should dominate the rushing game on both sides of the ball. Tjack will need to be more efficient in the passing attack, but he only needs to be average for the offense to be successful. So this game will be decided on how well Rodgers can run the passing attack. His first regular season start, a suspect OL, a revamped and fired up Vikings DL, and little kids in Fav-re jerseys swearing at him are all factors that will come into play. I think it will be a close game, decided by less than a TD, but in the end I think the Vikings will come away with the win. Vikings 21-17.
"There's the snap, Rodgers with a quick drop - in trouble! AND SACKED BY ALLEN! The ball is lose, the ball is lose, and recovered by Kevin Williams! And that's the ball game! Childress and the Vikings FINALLY beat the Packers!"
--
Sponsor
Offline TheEngineer  
#2 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 1:05:39 PM(UTC)
TheEngineer

Rank: 5th Round Draft Pick

Joined: 8/8/2008(UTC)


Originally Posted by: " Go to Quoted Post

On the Vikings side, I am not going to cite Minnesota's last place ranking in total passing yards last year because that stat is skewed by the run defense.


Now I can't claim to have watched all the Vikings games so maybe you can shed some light on this matter - were opposing teams passing because they couldn't run the ball or were they passing because it was working so well, and hence not rushing as much against the Vikings?
blank
Offline gotarace  
#3 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 1:06:48 PM(UTC)
gotarace

Rank: 5th Round Draft Pick

Joined: 8/3/2008(UTC)

Applause Given: 56
Applause Received: 16

Nicely thought out post. Well wrote with no trash or bash. It's going to be a great start to both our seasons. Give me the packers by 6.
Smart As a Horse
Hung Like Einstein
Offline NodakPaul  
#4 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 1:32:12 PM(UTC)
NodakPaul

Rank: Fresh Cheesehead

Joined: 8/18/2008(UTC)


Originally Posted by: " Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: " Go to Quoted Post

On the Vikings side, I am not going to cite Minnesota's last place ranking in total passing yards last year because that stat is skewed by the run defense.


Now I can't claim to have watched all the Vikings games so maybe you can shed some light on this matter - were opposing teams passing because they couldn't run the ball or were they passing because it was working so well, and hence not rushing as much against the Vikings?


That is a fair question.

If you look at the average yards per pass completion, the Vikings were right in the middle - ranked #16. If you look at completion percentage, the Vikings ranked #27. Still not great, but considerably better than the last place yards per game stat implies.

If you do the same for the Vikings rushing D - look at the averages, the Vikings rushing D continues to remain at the top. Our 3.1 yards per rush average was bested only by the Ravens 2.8. Every other stat (forced fumbles, tackles for a loss, overall yards, etc) the Vikings are securely in the #1 spot. This is the second straight year that the Vikings have led the NFL in rushing D.

So a bottom 1/3 passing defense coupled with the #1 rushing defense... I think it was obvious to teams that it was going to be considerably easier to pass that it would be to run. So it isn't surprising that they would end up passing nearly twice as much as running.
"There's the snap, Rodgers with a quick drop - in trouble! AND SACKED BY ALLEN! The ball is lose, the ball is lose, and recovered by Kevin Williams! And that's the ball game! Childress and the Vikings FINALLY beat the Packers!"
--
Offline bozz_2006  
#5 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 1:40:46 PM(UTC)
bozz_2006

Rank: 1st Round Draft Pick

Joined: 7/15/2008(UTC)

Applause Given: 20
Applause Received: 14

just like anything, pure stats can never show the whole picture. The Vikings rush D is very very good. their pass D is poor.
UserPostedImage
Offline zombieslayer  
#6 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 1:57:21 PM(UTC)
zombieslayer

Rank: Most Valuable Player

Joined: 8/7/2008(UTC)
Location: San Francisco

Applause Given: 778
Applause Received: 495

Nodak - Excellent job.

My thoughts:

VPD vs PDO - slight advantage to Vikings. Why? Our OL has looked bad, really bad, and Aaron will be pressed for time. I think we'll lose this one in the trenches.

VRD vs PRO - agreed with you.

VPO vs PPD - agreed with you.

VRO vs PRD - agreed with you.

STs - Packers advantage. Jordy will get us good field position, and our punt return units got us 2 TDs last year.

Coaching - Packers advantage. Mike McCarthy is a top tier Coach.

Overall - too close to call right now. I'm really worried about our OL, and especially you have the DL to exploit it, I realize your RBs are possibly the top tandem in the NFL, but your QB really sucks (sorry Nodak) and we have better coaching. We may get the field position advantage but you might eat the clock. This one can go either way. My prediction - the one who gets the most takeaways wins.
My man Donald Driver
UserPostedImage

(thanks to Pack93z for the pic)

2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. Ted Thompson Mike McCarthy Aaron Rodgers
Offline NodakPaul  
#7 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 2:12:23 PM(UTC)
NodakPaul

Rank: Fresh Cheesehead

Joined: 8/18/2008(UTC)


Originally Posted by: " Go to Quoted Post
Nodak - Excellent job.

My thoughts:

VPD vs PDO - slight advantage to Vikings. Why? Our OL has looked bad, really bad, and Aaron will be pressed for time. I think we'll lose this one in the trenches.

VRD vs PRO - agreed with you.

VPO vs PPD - agreed with you.

VRO vs PRD - agreed with you.

STs - Packers advantage. Jordy will get us good field position, and our punt return units got us 2 TDs last year.

Coaching - Packers advantage. Mike McCarthy is a top tier Coach.

Overall - too close to call right now. I'm really worried about our OL, and especially you have the DL to exploit it, I realize your RBs are possibly the top tandem in the NFL, but your QB really sucks (sorry Nodak) and we have better coaching. We may get the field position advantage but you might eat the clock. This one can go either way. My prediction - the one who gets the most takeaways wins.


Good call on addition coaching into the mix. I would agree that Mike McCarthy has the edge on Childress.

It is going to be a great (injury free) game! Two weeks away!!!
"There's the snap, Rodgers with a quick drop - in trouble! AND SACKED BY ALLEN! The ball is lose, the ball is lose, and recovered by Kevin Williams! And that's the ball game! Childress and the Vikings FINALLY beat the Packers!"
--
Offline earthquake  
#8 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 2:25:39 PM(UTC)
earthquake

Rank: 4th Round Draft Pick

Joined: 8/11/2008(UTC)

Applause Given: 175
Applause Received: 56

Great post(for a vikings fan)! =P

Most of what you said seems to be pretty accurate, and has only a slight amount of bias =) The only thing i would disagree with would be the special teams. We've got Will Blackmon healthy for the first time in a long while and he has some tallent, not to mention Tramon Williams and Jordy Nelson on kickoffs.

My biggest concern is getting the OL/DL healthy, if they go in banged up i see bad things happening. The vikings OL/DL has the tallent to really push the packers around if they're in there missing key starters.

Now having said all of that, the pack did beat the vikings quite convincingly twice last year, so i still take the pack by 7.
blank
Offline bigfog  
#9 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 2:35:39 PM(UTC)
bigfog

Rank: Fresh Cheesehead

Joined: 8/8/2008(UTC)


Call me a pessimist, but I think AP and the Vikes beat Green Bay in week one.

Unless the defensive line shapes up, I've got a bad feeling about week one.
"I wouldn't root for the Minnesota Vikings to win a chess match against Nazi Germany."
Offline Bigbyfan  
#10 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 2:40:20 PM(UTC)
Bigbyfan

Rank: 4th Round Draft Pick

Joined: 8/8/2008(UTC)

Applause Given: 22
Applause Received: 78

Isn't Madeiu Williams going to miss the first few weeks of the seasons? I thought I heard that somewhere, but if he is out will that rookie you guys got start?
blank
Offline TOPackerFan  
#11 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 2:41:34 PM(UTC)
TOPackerFan

Rank: Fresh Cheesehead

Joined: 8/13/2008(UTC)


The Vikes' rushing D was #1 last year, but keep in mind that during the 34-0 drubbing, Grant had around 120 yds on the ground. I'd call that one a wash and I think we take the game due to our coaching edge, provided that Aaron isn't so jacked up for his first start that he stinks up the joint.
Show me a good loser, I'll show you a loser - Vince
Offline NodakPaul  
#12 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 2:44:37 PM(UTC)
NodakPaul

Rank: Fresh Cheesehead

Joined: 8/18/2008(UTC)


Originally Posted by: " Go to Quoted Post
Isn't Madeiu Williams going to miss the first few weeks of the seasons? I thought I heard that somewhere, but if he is out will that rookie you guys got start?


Timeline on Madeiu is not official, but yeah, he will likely miss the first fee weeks with a neck injury. I did take that into account, but failed to mention it. (I meant to append the file that I had been working in, but forgot to) Basically I have seen so little of Williams at this point that I didn't know where to rank him, so I based a lot of my analysis on Tyrell Johnson's play so far.

Thanks for the catch!
"There's the snap, Rodgers with a quick drop - in trouble! AND SACKED BY ALLEN! The ball is lose, the ball is lose, and recovered by Kevin Williams! And that's the ball game! Childress and the Vikings FINALLY beat the Packers!"
--
Offline NodakPaul  
#13 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 2:46:17 PM(UTC)
NodakPaul

Rank: Fresh Cheesehead

Joined: 8/18/2008(UTC)


Originally Posted by: " Go to Quoted Post
The Vikes' rushing D was #1 last year, but keep in mind that during the 34-0 drubbing, Grant had around 120 yds on the ground. I'd call that one a wash and I think we take the game due to our coaching edge, provided that Aaron isn't so jacked up for his first start that he stinks up the joint.


This is true. But I think we can agree that that was the exception, not the rule, for the Vikings defense last year. And as I alluded, Grant has seen a grand total of zero practice or preseason time so far this season... Even if he is as good as the second half of the season indicates, that will have an impact.
"There's the snap, Rodgers with a quick drop - in trouble! AND SACKED BY ALLEN! The ball is lose, the ball is lose, and recovered by Kevin Williams! And that's the ball game! Childress and the Vikings FINALLY beat the Packers!"
--
Offline DarkaneRules  
#14 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 2:57:27 PM(UTC)
DarkaneRules

Rank: 2nd Round Draft Pick

Joined: 8/15/2008(UTC)

Applause Given: 209
Applause Received: 351

I like Adrian Peterson, but I have to say that I am not as worried about the Vikings running game as I am basically any other team. Here are some preseason stats to think about if at least just a little.

In a list of running back rankings, it takes the Vikings all the way to rank number 69 to make an appearance with Albert Young. It is actually technically number 71 since it took more attempts than the two others who share the same rushing yards. Now I know AP hasn't gotten most of the reps, but I consider the blocking to be a major element not just the runner.

In this same ranking GB running backs appear at 51 with Brandon Jackson, 43 with Noah Herron, and 14 with Kregg Lumpkin.

So as far as run blocking goes, I am not sold on the Vikings having an advantage on us. I think you can say similar things about AP as you can say about Grant. AP's productivity starting falling as it seemed people were figuring him out. He has that big play ability but we also saw Grant tear away from the line and go the distance as well.

I also see an almost even slate at quarterback. I actually don't believe much of the negative talk surrounding Tarvaris Jackson going into this season. For his preseason stats, although his attempts are less than other teams, he has been efficient going for 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, and throwing for 11 first downs. I think he will have a good year this year if he keeps up this level of play. He has been smart and effective.

Where I think we go past the Vikings is actually our running game. I think we do better at surprising the Vikings than they do to us. A sort of we know what you guys are up to sort of thing. The Bears had our number in this department last season and it seemed judging by the stats that the Broncos similarly dissected us.

Pass defense with both our starters I also think is to our advantage. Our leaders in the secondary have never shown particularly well in the preseason, but they know when and how to turn it on.

I am going to be boring and say that I consider us even mostly due to the fact that we just seem to know each other so well as teams and we tend to go back and forth every time we play.
Circular Arguments: They are a heck of an annoyance
Offline johnny_blood  
#15 Posted : Monday, August 25, 2008 3:21:15 PM(UTC)
johnny_blood

Rank: Fresh Cheesehead

Joined: 8/8/2008(UTC)


I agree with most of the original post but think it overstates the pass protection problems for the Packers. I think the pass protection will be fine and that Rodgers deserves a lot of the blame for holding the ball too long. He improved on that last week.

You can tell the performance of the Packers offense so far this year just by looking at Rodgers' feet and how long he holds the ball.
blank
 
Users browsing this topic
Guest
5 Pages123>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Powered by YAF.NET | YAF.NET © 2003-2014, Yet Another Forum.NET
This page was generated in 1.420 seconds.

Notification

Icon
Error

Tweeter

Recent Topics
37m / Green Bay Packers Talk / Smokey

44m / Random Babble / Smokey

1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / nerdmann

4h / Green Bay Packers Talk / steveishere

5h / Green Bay Packers Talk / TheKanataThrilla

9h / Green Bay Packers Talk / hardrocker950

10h / Green Bay Packers Talk / uffda udfa

11h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

12h / Green Bay Packers Talk / DarkaneRules

13h / Fantasy Sports Talk / Smokey

15h / Fantasy Sports Talk / Smokey

16h / Green Bay Packers Talk / porky88

17h / Green Bay Packers Talk / DakotaT

19h / Around The NFL / wpr

19h / Green Bay Packers Talk / steveishere


Copyright © 2006-2014 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.