Green Bay Packers Forum

Welcome to your Green Bay Packers Online Community!

Since 2006, PackersHome has been providing a unique experience for fans.
Your participation is greatly anticipated!
Login or Register.
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#1 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2012 4:28:51 PM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

Joined: 6/12/2010(UTC)
Applause Given: 292
Applause Received: 266
I was having fun with numbers again.

I wanted to know how important having a top 5 RB in rushing yards is to winning in the NFL. Both regular season and post season.

I did a little checking and put the numbers in a spread sheet.

Here is what I came up with.

Actual, Stat type...... Ave for any random 25 teams
9..... Ave wins/year.. 8
11.... Post season.... 9.375
7..... Post wins...... 8.590
11.... Post loses..... 8.590
0..... Super Bowl..... 1.600
0..... Super Bowl wins 0.800
0.563 winning %...... 0.500
0.389 post win %..... 0.500
0..... SB Win %....... 0.031
0..... Conf win %..... 0.063

First I must appologize. I tried loading an image of the spread sheet so I could insert it into the body of the post, but I was unable to for some reason. No big deal, I worked around it.

My assumption was that NFL leading running backs do not make a team great. They don't win games like a league leading QB would.

The first thing I noticed after collecting the data was that they win slightly more than average. For the 5 best running backs every for each year, you would expect more than a .563 winning percentage. In fact, the top RB for each of the last 5 years averaged .500 for the season. The 5th ranked backs fared better with a .613 winning %.

The second thing that I noticed is that, while they went to the post season slightly more than average, they lost more than average. They also rarely made it to the Conference playoff game and never won.

It seems that Dominating running games in the NFL are not effective in the post season. They are hardly better than average in the regular season.

I will probably continue to go back a few more years and see if there is a pattern. Trends are not easy to spot with a short sample like this.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#2 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2012 5:09:12 PM(UTC)
Rank: Premier Member

Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Gold: 2015Yahoo! Fantasy Football - Gold: 2009FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Silver: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Silver: 2011ESPN NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2013

United States
Joined: 10/13/2006(UTC)
Location: Green Bay, WI
Applause Given: 2,324
Applause Received: 3,585
Attach the image and I'll show you how to embed it. Also, I went through what you wrote and didn't see what merited a running back to be top five.
Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#3 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2012 6:37:17 PM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

Joined: 6/12/2010(UTC)
Applause Given: 292
Applause Received: 266
Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
Attach the image and I'll show you how to embed it. Also, I went through what you wrote and didn't see what merited a running back to be top five.


Rushing Yards. It was clearer in the spreadsheet.

I have done that many times. I usually uploaded them in my album and then use the picture link button on the tool bar. But I couldn't save the picture in my album.
Offline DoddPower  
#4 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2012 7:13:47 PM(UTC)
Rank: Veteran Member

FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Gold: 2011FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Bronze: 2015

United States
Joined: 9/24/2007(UTC)
Location: Visalia, CA
Applause Given: 3,200
Applause Received: 876
I would think a more interesting examination would be a regression of total team rushing yards (independent variable) vs. wins (dependent). You could do it by season, playoffs, super bowls, etc, and then combine several seasons. Regressing with just total team rushing yards will explain how much of the variability in wins is explained by the rushing yards (by the coefficient of determination, or R^2).

I'd love to see something like that, but I don't have enough time to do it myself. If the data was into a spreadsheet, I could pop out some graphs and such pretty quickly, though. Even a true statistical analysis in SAS is easy one the data is collected. Hint hint! heh. ;-)

If I had to guess, it would be a weak to moderate linear correlation, at best.
Rss Feed 
Users browsing this topic
Guest
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Notification

Icon
Error


Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (1h): Crap, another meeting! Ugh!
Zero2Cool (1h): Check in already! We waiting on YOU!!!
Pack93z (1h): YES :)
Pack93z (1h): --- KEVIN ----
Mucky Tundra (2h): of the Dead?
Zero2Cool (5h): --- SHAWN ---
Cheesey (25-Jul): Me neither. He did virtually nothing after he left the Packers.
Zero2Cool (25-Jul): WR Greg Jennings retires. I think I should be surprised, but I'm not.
Cheesey (23-Jul): It's sad, he was young.
wpr (22-Jul): Sorry to hear about Dennis passing away.
Zero2Cool (22-Jul): Hopefully people respect his passing without trying to make jokes.
Zero2Cool (22-Jul): Damn, Dennis Green passed away.
Zero2Cool (22-Jul): Bahahahah
Smokey (16-Jul): Playing 2016 Fantasy Football ? NO ? Contact me to join the Tailgaters Fantasy Football League !
wpr (15-Jul): Happy birthday since69
Zero2Cool (15-Jul): Whoa!Today's Birthdays: Since69 (51)
Zero2Cool (15-Jul): No sir. But at work we had our A/C go out, not fun lol
Smokey (14-Jul): Did recent bad weather affect you Zero ? ie: loss of electricity ?
Zero2Cool (14-Jul): stay cool bud ... thats some hot crap there
Smokey (14-Jul): Heat Index 104* : Richmond , VA.
Zero2Cool (14-Jul): Richard Rodgers and Aaron Rodgers win ESPY for play of year!! Wohooo
Smokey (14-Jul): A.Rodgers wins ESPY for Hail Mary Play .
Smokey (14-Jul): The ESPY's are ON !
Cheesey (13-Jul): Yeah...stinky cheese, for sure!
yooperfan (12-Jul): Happy belated birthday Cheesey, may you have many more!
Zero2Cool (11-Jul): That be some old cheese yo!! lol
Cheesey (10-Jul): Porforis, I won't live THAT long!
Porforis (10-Jul): You'll live just long enough for the Vikings to win a super bowl. Thankfully, I think you're going to outlive all of us!
wpr (10-Jul): Hey Alanhope you have a great day.
Cheesey (10-Jul): Thanks guys. I'm 59 today. Never thought I'd live this long.
Smokey (9-Jul): MAY THE PACK BE WITH YOU !
Smokey (9-Jul): I did not know Cheesey , HAPPY BIRTHDAY !! \_/
Cheesey (9-Jul): Guess I'll have to wish myself a happy birthday.
wpr (1-Jul): Hey grabacr hope you had a fantastic day
Zero2Cool (30-Jun): Today's Birthdays: Grabacr (28)
Please sign in to use Fan Shout

Road To Super Bowl LI
Sunday, Sep 11 @ 12:00 PM
at Jaguars
Sunday, Sep 18 @ 7:30 PM
at Vikings
Sunday, Sep 25 @ 12:00 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Oct 2 @ 12:00 AM
BYE
Sunday, Oct 9 @ 7:30 PM
GIANTS
Sunday, Oct 16 @ 3:25 PM
COWBOYS
Thursday, Oct 20 @ 7:25 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Oct 30 @ 12:00 PM
at Falcons
Sunday, Nov 6 @ 3:25 PM
COLTS
Sunday, Nov 13 @ 12:00 PM
at Titans
Sunday, Nov 20 @ 7:30 PM
at Redskins
Monday, Nov 28 @ 7:30 PM
at Eagles
Sunday, Dec 4 @ 12:00 PM
TEXANS
Sunday, Dec 11 @ 3:25 PM
SEAHAWKS
Sunday, Dec 18 @ 12:00 PM
at Bears
Saturday, Dec 24 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Jan 1 @ 12:00 PM
at Lions

Think About It
Think About It

Recent Topics
1m / Green Bay Packers Talk / musccy

55m / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

1h / Around The NFL / Zero2Cool

1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Cheesey

7h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

23h / Green Bay Packers Talk / nerdmann

26-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Cheesey

26-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Cheesey

26-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / nerdmann

26-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / nerdmann

26-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

26-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / DarkaneRules

26-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / TheKanataThrilla

25-Jul / Green Bay Packers Talk / PackerTraxx


Packers Headlines