Green Bay Packers Forum

Welcome to your Green Bay Packers Online Community!

Since 2006, PackersHome has been providing a unique experience for fans.
Your participation is greatly anticipated!
Login or Register.
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#1 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2012 4:28:51 PM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

Joined: 6/12/2010(UTC)
Applause Given: 292
Applause Received: 266
I was having fun with numbers again.

I wanted to know how important having a top 5 RB in rushing yards is to winning in the NFL. Both regular season and post season.

I did a little checking and put the numbers in a spread sheet.

Here is what I came up with.

Actual, Stat type...... Ave for any random 25 teams
9..... Ave wins/year.. 8
11.... Post season.... 9.375
7..... Post wins...... 8.590
11.... Post loses..... 8.590
0..... Super Bowl..... 1.600
0..... Super Bowl wins 0.800
0.563 winning %...... 0.500
0.389 post win %..... 0.500
0..... SB Win %....... 0.031
0..... Conf win %..... 0.063

First I must appologize. I tried loading an image of the spread sheet so I could insert it into the body of the post, but I was unable to for some reason. No big deal, I worked around it.

My assumption was that NFL leading running backs do not make a team great. They don't win games like a league leading QB would.

The first thing I noticed after collecting the data was that they win slightly more than average. For the 5 best running backs every for each year, you would expect more than a .563 winning percentage. In fact, the top RB for each of the last 5 years averaged .500 for the season. The 5th ranked backs fared better with a .613 winning %.

The second thing that I noticed is that, while they went to the post season slightly more than average, they lost more than average. They also rarely made it to the Conference playoff game and never won.

It seems that Dominating running games in the NFL are not effective in the post season. They are hardly better than average in the regular season.

I will probably continue to go back a few more years and see if there is a pattern. Trends are not easy to spot with a short sample like this.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#2 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2012 5:09:12 PM(UTC)
Rank: Premier Member

Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Gold: 2015Yahoo! Fantasy Football - Gold: 2009FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Silver: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Silver: 2011ESPN NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2013

United States
Joined: 10/13/2006(UTC)
Location: Green Bay, WI
Applause Given: 2,401
Applause Received: 3,775
Attach the image and I'll show you how to embed it. Also, I went through what you wrote and didn't see what merited a running back to be top five.
Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#3 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2012 6:37:17 PM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

Joined: 6/12/2010(UTC)
Applause Given: 292
Applause Received: 266
Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
Attach the image and I'll show you how to embed it. Also, I went through what you wrote and didn't see what merited a running back to be top five.

Rushing Yards. It was clearer in the spreadsheet.

I have done that many times. I usually uploaded them in my album and then use the picture link button on the tool bar. But I couldn't save the picture in my album.
Offline DoddPower  
#4 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2012 7:13:47 PM(UTC)
Rank: Veteran Member

FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Gold: 2011FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Bronze: 2015

United States
Joined: 9/24/2007(UTC)
Location: Visalia, CA
Applause Given: 3,310
Applause Received: 924
I would think a more interesting examination would be a regression of total team rushing yards (independent variable) vs. wins (dependent). You could do it by season, playoffs, super bowls, etc, and then combine several seasons. Regressing with just total team rushing yards will explain how much of the variability in wins is explained by the rushing yards (by the coefficient of determination, or R^2).

I'd love to see something like that, but I don't have enough time to do it myself. If the data was into a spreadsheet, I could pop out some graphs and such pretty quickly, though. Even a true statistical analysis in SAS is easy one the data is collected. Hint hint! heh. ;-)

If I had to guess, it would be a weak to moderate linear correlation, at best.
Rss Feed 
Users browsing this topic
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.



Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (46m) : If no one posts, what's the purpose of a forum? Don't ruin what we have. Contribute!
Zero2Cool (47m) : But you have posted shouts, therefore your rule has been broken. Get over it.
uffda udfa (59m) : :) Shouting isn't posting. A different vehicle. I said I don't post in season. I haven't for years. Will shout and chat, though.
beast (1h) : Walker can probably go on the PS still
beast (1h) : and 2 8ths of an inch
steveishere (1h) : would be fine with signing Walker to replace Barclay
Zero2Cool (1h) : Josh Walker (OL- Packers, who previously reached an injury settlement) is now 100% healthy and worked out for Packers today
Zero2Cool (1h) : Damn, Geronimo is 6'3"?
Zero2Cool (1h) : You've used the site to voice yourself, no contribute like someone who has a pair! :-)
Zero2Cool (1h) : not sure why you feel you can shout but can't post in forums. mind boggling.
Zero2Cool (2h) : QB Joe Callahan to the Browns
beast (2h) : Is Zero arguing with himself again? ;) "linsley will take 53rd", "Don't think it will be Linsley"
uffda udfa (2h) : Glad Dakota gets to see his guy on the 53. Geronimo!
Zero2Cool (2h) : PackerReport says One spot to fill. Assume it will be a corner. Don't think it will be Linsley. Needs to get in football shape.
Zero2Cool (2h) : Linsley will take 53rd spot. WR Allison just filled 52nd
beast (2h) : Linsley and Callahan? (Just thinking out loud)
Zero2Cool (3h) : Packers roster down to 51 ... bet they wait two weeks to get back to 53, or activate Corey Linsley.
Zero2Cool (4h) : Can't get much more current than that, now can ya? BAHAHAHHAHAHA
Smokey (7h) : As current as yesterday's Win . (Giants/Lions became 4-3 teams).
Zero2Cool (8h) : Packers beat two teams with current winning records.
Zero2Cool (8h) : Packers only two Losses came against the 1 and 2 teams in the conference.
Mucky Tundra (9h) : what a bizarre game!
Mucky Tundra (9h) : just watched the recap to the Arizona-Seattle game on
Smokey (15h) : Do you score a Tie in Pickem the same as no pick ?
TheKanataThrilla (17h) : Thanks for the makeshift chat Smokey and Beast
Smokey (17h) : good night all
TheKanataThrilla (17h) : Thanks for way too many beers Arizona...
Smokey (17h) : 6/6 Tie Game
Smokey (18h) : UNBELIEVABLE !
beast (18h) : WOW!!!! Are they kissing sisters tonight?
TheKanataThrilla (18h) : This is crazy..
TheKanataThrilla (18h) : Arians is like McCarthy. Genius who outthinks himself
beast (18h) : Az STs are killing them this season... that has to be driving them and fans nuts
Smokey (18h) : Wow, great footwork !
TheKanataThrilla (18h) : Arizona is gonna blow this
Please sign in to use Fan Shout

Road To Super Bowl LI
Sunday, Sep 11 @ 12:00 PM
at Jaguars
Sunday, Sep 18 @ 7:30 PM
at Vikings
Sunday, Sep 25 @ 12:00 PM
Sunday, Oct 2 @ 12:00 AM
Sunday, Oct 9 @ 7:30 PM
Sunday, Oct 16 @ 3:25 PM
Thursday, Oct 20 @ 7:25 PM
Sunday, Oct 30 @ 3:25 PM
at Falcons
Sunday, Nov 6 @ 3:25 PM
Sunday, Nov 13 @ 12:00 PM
at Titans
Sunday, Nov 20 @ 7:30 PM
at Redskins
Monday, Nov 28 @ 7:30 PM
at Eagles
Sunday, Dec 4 @ 12:00 PM
Sunday, Dec 11 @ 3:25 PM
Sunday, Dec 18 @ 12:00 PM
at Bears
Saturday, Dec 24 @ 12:00 PM
Sunday, Jan 1 @ 12:00 PM
at Lions

Think About It
Think About It

Recent Topics
5m / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

15m / Green Bay Packers Talk / PackFanWithTwins

17m / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

29m / Green Bay Packers Talk / gbguy20

31m / Green Bay Packers Talk / gbguy20

33m / Green Bay Packers Talk / gbguy20

2h / Green Bay Packers Talk / steveishere

2h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

6h / Green Bay Packers Talk / nerdmann

6h / Green Bay Packers Talk / nerdmann

6h / Green Bay Packers Talk / DakotaT

20h / Around The NFL / Cheesey

21h / Green Bay Packers Talk / TheKanataThrilla

23-Oct / Green Bay Packers Talk / DoddPower

23-Oct / Green Bay Packers Talk / sschind

Packers Headlines