Discussion Board
Welcome Guest! You can login or register. Login or Register.

Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Dexter_Sinister  
#1 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2012 4:28:51 PM(UTC)
I was having fun with numbers again.

I wanted to know how important having a top 5 RB in rushing yards is to winning in the NFL. Both regular season and post season.

I did a little checking and put the numbers in a spread sheet.

Here is what I came up with.

Actual, Stat type...... Ave for any random 25 teams
9..... Ave wins/year.. 8
11.... Post season.... 9.375
7..... Post wins...... 8.590
11.... Post loses..... 8.590
0..... Super Bowl..... 1.600
0..... Super Bowl wins 0.800
0.563 winning %...... 0.500
0.389 post win %..... 0.500
0..... SB Win %....... 0.031
0..... Conf win %..... 0.063

First I must appologize. I tried loading an image of the spread sheet so I could insert it into the body of the post, but I was unable to for some reason. No big deal, I worked around it.

My assumption was that NFL leading running backs do not make a team great. They don't win games like a league leading QB would.

The first thing I noticed after collecting the data was that they win slightly more than average. For the 5 best running backs every for each year, you would expect more than a .563 winning percentage. In fact, the top RB for each of the last 5 years averaged .500 for the season. The 5th ranked backs fared better with a .613 winning %.

The second thing that I noticed is that, while they went to the post season slightly more than average, they lost more than average. They also rarely made it to the Conference playoff game and never won.

It seems that Dominating running games in the NFL are not effective in the post season. They are hardly better than average in the regular season.

I will probably continue to go back a few more years and see if there is a pattern. Trends are not easy to spot with a short sample like this.
Zero2Cool  
#2 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2012 5:09:12 PM(UTC)
Attach the image and I'll show you how to embed it. Also, I went through what you wrote and didn't see what merited a running back to be top five.
Dexter_Sinister  
#3 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2012 6:37:17 PM(UTC)
Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
Attach the image and I'll show you how to embed it. Also, I went through what you wrote and didn't see what merited a running back to be top five.


Rushing Yards. It was clearer in the spreadsheet.

I have done that many times. I usually uploaded them in my album and then use the picture link button on the tool bar. But I couldn't save the picture in my album.
DoddPower  
#4 Posted : Wednesday, July 11, 2012 7:13:47 PM(UTC)
I would think a more interesting examination would be a regression of total team rushing yards (independent variable) vs. wins (dependent). You could do it by season, playoffs, super bowls, etc, and then combine several seasons. Regressing with just total team rushing yards will explain how much of the variability in wins is explained by the rushing yards (by the coefficient of determination, or R^2).

I'd love to see something like that, but I don't have enough time to do it myself. If the data was into a spreadsheet, I could pop out some graphs and such pretty quickly, though. Even a true statistical analysis in SAS is easy one the data is collected. Hint hint! heh. ;-)

If I had to guess, it would be a weak to moderate linear correlation, at best.
Rss Feed
Users browsing this topic
Guest
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Notification

Icon
Error

Fan Shout
wpr (14h) : Good idea Z.
wpr (14h) : I tapped my savings to spend time with my son.
Zero2Cool (14h) : I'll have to find a time when Brewers play Red Sox at Fenway. Both teams, one location!
wpr (14h) : Why do you need to be a jerk? I live in a modest home. My kids are out of the house. My wife and I both work. My son paid for most of it. I
Smokey (22h) : Yes, Insurance Agents do well . You must feel so superior .
rabidgopher04 (22h) : Fenway is electric. Great place to watch baseball. I've been a couple times.
wpr (17-Aug) : A few have it already. Most have to save it to do things.
wpr (17-Aug) : Yes Smokey, life takes money to do anything.
Smokey (16-Aug) : IF THEY HAVE THE MONEY !
wpr (16-Aug) : It is a must for everyone.
Zero2Cool (16-Aug) : I gotta hit that place sometime. Red Sox fan. Hell as a Baseball fan you gotta see Fenway.
wpr (16-Aug) : Flew into Boston today. Took in a game at Fenway with my son.
Smokey (15-Aug) : JOIN PACKERSHOME , A GREAT PLACE TO POST !
beast (12-Aug) : Fairly good news on all the injuries other than having the concussions, but glad it wasn't worse.
buckeyepackfan (11-Aug) : stupid Zeke!!!
Zero2Cool (11-Aug) : De'Angelo Yancey said when he saw Malachi Dupre this afternoon "it was like he never even got hit."
DarkaneRules (11-Aug) : Trubisky lit it up last night. he was throwing darts, especially on the run. impressive
DarkaneRules (11-Aug) : evans had a good game otherwise but refs were rusty
DarkaneRules (11-Aug) : wish there wasn't such an obvious block in the back on the punt td
Tezzy (10-Aug) : Go Pack Go!
buckeyepackfan (10-Aug) : Will The Rivers run deep tonight? Only time will tell!?
Smokey (9-Aug) : GB vs Philly , "Chat" will be "Open" .
Porforis (9-Aug) : Shh... Kids these days like cookies...
Smokey (9-Aug) : and Polls !
Porforis (8-Aug) : We have cookies.
Smokey (7-Aug) : COME JOIN OUR FORUM !
Smokey (7-Aug) : JOIN NOW , JOIN TODAY !
Zero2Cool (7-Aug) : Davon House sits out of the Packers’ Monday practice with a hamstring injury
DarkaneRules (7-Aug) : House not in pads today. Hope to hear "we're just being cautious with him" later
Cheesey (7-Aug) : Good time to get th FG misses in, when it doesn't count.
Smokey (6-Aug) : M. Crosby , will be ok
DarkaneRules (6-Aug) : 6 missed field goals. that will be your headline because media
Smokey (6-Aug) : now I have
Smokey (6-Aug) : Have not seen Jamal Williams (RB) .
DarkaneRules (6-Aug) : it's not a game but this punter looks legit
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2017 Packers Schedule
Sunday, Sep 10 @ 3:25 PM
SEAHAWKS
Sunday, Sep 17 @ 7:30 PM
at Falcons
Sunday, Sep 24 @ 3:25 PM
BENGALS
Thursday, Sep 28 @ 7:25 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Oct 8 @ 3:25 PM
at Cowboys
Sunday, Oct 15 @ 12:00 PM
at Vikings
Sunday, Oct 22 @ 12:00 PM
SAINTS
Sunday, Oct 29 @ 12:00 AM
- BYE -
Monday, Nov 6 @ 7:30 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Nov 12 @ 12:00 PM
at Bears
Sunday, Nov 19 @ 12:00 PM
RAVENS
Sunday, Nov 26 @ 7:30 PM
at Steelers
Sunday, Dec 3 @ 12:00 PM
BUCCANEERS
Sunday, Dec 10 @ 12:00 PM
at Browns
Sunday, Dec 17 @ 12:00 PM
at Panthers
Saturday, Dec 23 @ 7:30 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Dec 31 @ 12:00 PM
at Lions
Think About It
Think About It
Recent Topics
13m / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

2h / Green Bay Packers Talk / nerdmann

5h / Green Bay Packers Talk / yooperfan

14h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

16h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Smokey

16-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / gbguy20

16-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / uffda udfa

16-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / DarkaneRules

16-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

15-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / yooperfan

15-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

13-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / rabidgopher04

11-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

10-Aug / Green Bay Packers Talk / DarkaneRules

Headlines