Green Bay Packers Forum

Welcome to your Green Bay Packers Online Community!

Since 2006, PackersHome has been providing a unique experience for fans.
Your participation is greatly anticipated!
Login or Register.
7 Pages«<23456>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline PackFanWithTwins  
#31 Posted : Monday, October 8, 2012 1:42:26 PM(UTC)
Rank: Veteran Member

Joined: 9/26/2008(UTC)
Applause Given: 24
Applause Received: 918
zombieslayer said: Go to Quoted Post
You're absolutely right and I'm absolutely wrong. Last year's SB winner was the Giants who were ranked 32 out of 32 in running. the year before it was the Packers who were ranked 24 out of 32 in rushing. Before that, the Saints who were 6 out of 32 in rushing. Before that, it was the Steelers who were 23 out of 32 in rushing.

What do those teams have in common? All those teams led the NFL in rushing.

Well, there you go. There's our problem. Screw the pass. Let's lead the NFL in rushing so we can win the SB. :-k




Sarcasm aside, the key to winning a game is Passer Rating Differential. You can read all about the correlation here:
http://www.coldhardfootb...ts.com/stats/2012/5/PRD/

Dexter_Sinister wrote up a really nice article last year about it and how it correlated with Super Bowl wins historically.

As for correlation between rushing success and winning, there is NONE WHATSOEVER. I checked the stats. It had as much correlation as how many times a Vikings fan picks his nose vs how successful people in the East Coast are at catching salmon.


Just a note. The giants, were last in rushing because they sucked earlier in the season, but then they went on their run, they were rushing for 109/gm. When the Packers went on their run in 2010. they were rushing for 103/gm.

Saints were not that good, but they also had the run game pick up at the end.

All three had a passing game, a run game and a defense all playing their best at the end.
thanks Post received 1 applause.
Pack93z on 10/9/2012(UTC)
Offline play2win  
#32 Posted : Monday, October 8, 2012 1:43:07 PM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

United States
Joined: 3/29/2012(UTC)
Location: Milwaukee
Applause Given: 1,076
Applause Received: 724
zombieslayer said: Go to Quoted Post
You're absolutely right and I'm absolutely wrong. Last year's SB winner was the Giants who were ranked 32 out of 32 in running. the year before it was the Packers who were ranked 24 out of 32 in rushing. Before that, the Saints who were 6 out of 32 in rushing. Before that, it was the Steelers who were 23 out of 32 in rushing.

What do those teams have in common? All those teams led the NFL in rushing.

Well, there you go. There's our problem. Screw the pass. Let's lead the NFL in rushing so we can win the SB. :-k




Sarcasm aside, the key to winning a game is Passer Rating Differential. You can read all about the correlation here:
http://www.coldhardfootb...ts.com/stats/2012/5/PRD/

Dexter_Sinister wrote up a really nice article last year about it and how it correlated with Super Bowl wins historically.

As for correlation between rushing success and winning, there is NONE WHATSOEVER. I checked the stats. It had as much correlation as how many times a Vikings fan picks his nose vs how successful people in the East Coast are at catching salmon.


zombie, c'mon man! You can't use stats like that when Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were hurt most of the season. They both came back and were a big part of their run to winning the SB after their team went 9-7 regular season. They totaled 26 carries for 110 yds v. NE to win it all. For NE, conversely, Green-Ellis had just 10 carries for 44 yds. Welker had 2 carries for 21.

Go on believing we don't need 20+ carries per game to win. Whatever. I disagree.

Division leaders and NFL ranking rushing:

NE #3
BAL #13
HOU #7 (with a game yet to play tonight)
SD #16
(Tie) NYG #12 PHI #10
(Tie) CHI #11 and MIN #9
ATL #21
(Tie) SF #1 and AZ #31

We rank #20 overall. Oddly enough, both ATL and AZ have more attempts than we do (ranking #18 and 20 to our #22), helping to keep the opposing D honest. Take away Rodgers' scrambles and I would bet we are nearer to the bottom of the NFL.

Passer Rating Differential??? You don't think that has something to do with rushing to keep opposing defenses honest? I sure do.
Offline zombieslayer  
#33 Posted : Monday, October 8, 2012 2:19:32 PM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

Joined: 8/7/2008(UTC)
Location: San Francisco
Applause Given: 778
Applause Received: 495
As my research said, you still have to run the ball. Yes. That much we agree on.

However, you don't have to be good at it.

So yes, you should have rushing attempts. But as unintuitive as this sounds, the total yards don't matter.
Offline macbob  
#34 Posted : Monday, October 8, 2012 2:43:34 PM(UTC)
Rank: Veteran Member

Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Gold: 2013Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Gold: 2016PackersHome NFL Pick'em - Gold: 2014FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Silver: 2012PackersHome NFL Pick'em - Silver: 2012FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Bronze: 2014

Joined: 10/12/2008(UTC)
Applause Given: 370
Applause Received: 319
zombieslayer said: Go to Quoted Post
As my research said, you still have to run the ball. Yes. That much we agree on.

However, you don't have to be good at it.

So yes, you should have rushing attempts. But as unintuitive as this sounds, the total yards don't matter.


Agree with what you said 99%--total yards aren't as important as rushing attempts, but I wouldn't say total yards don't matter.

The more success you have running the ball the more you'll distract the D from your passing game. If you're running it for 40 yds you'll get their attention a little more than if you're running it for -2, -4 per carry...
Offline Porforis  
#35 Posted : Monday, October 8, 2012 3:39:49 PM(UTC)
Rank: Veteran Member

United States
Joined: 8/22/2009(UTC)
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Applause Given: 298
Applause Received: 574
macbob said: Go to Quoted Post
Agree with what you said 99%--total yards aren't as important as rushing attempts, but I wouldn't say total yards don't matter.

The more success you have running the ball the more you'll distract the D from your passing game. If you're running it for 40 yds you'll get their attention a little more than if you're running it for -2, -4 per carry...


They need to respect the run. If you're only getting 1, 2 yards per carry when they're loading up the box, oh well. If they're in nickel or dime and you can't run it for more than 2 or 3 on a regular basis, they don't NEED to respect it. You don't need to be great at the run, just okay. And in order to do that on a regular basis, you need to run it more than a dozen times per game.
thanks Post received 1 applause.
nerdmann on 10/8/2012(UTC)
Offline zombieslayer  
#36 Posted : Monday, October 8, 2012 3:44:53 PM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

Joined: 8/7/2008(UTC)
Location: San Francisco
Applause Given: 778
Applause Received: 495
Porforis said: Go to Quoted Post
They need to respect the run. If you're only getting 1, 2 yards per carry when they're loading up the box, oh well. If they're in nickel or dime and you can't run it for more than 2 or 3 on a regular basis, they don't NEED to respect it. You don't need to be great at the run, just okay. And in order to do that on a regular basis, you need to run it more than a dozen times per game.


That's the weird thing is you don't even have to be OK. You just have to run the ball.

You could actually have a mediocre rushing attack and win it all. Has happened time and time again.

That's why I used the word "unintuitive." You'd think by the way I'm worded the last thing I said that I'd be smoking crack, but my research shows otherwise. You only need attempts. Yards really don't matter.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#37 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 5:33:23 AM(UTC)
Rank: Premier Member

Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Gold: 2015Yahoo! Fantasy Football - Gold: 2009FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Silver: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Silver: 2011ESPN NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2013

United States
Joined: 10/13/2006(UTC)
Location: Green Bay, WI
Applause Given: 2,448
Applause Received: 3,870
zombieslayer said: Go to Quoted Post
You only need attempts. Yards really don't matter.


This goes along what Shawn and I have been trying to get through to you for a couple years now. The attempts are what keeps a defense honest. A solid 60/40 pass/run ratio is very good for an offense as it opens up a lot of opportunities. Right now the Packers are being manhandled by a two high safety scheme because they are not worried about the second level being reached by a RB or a slant pass.

I'd rather see James Starks than Alex Green running the ball, even though Green has the potential to break one, he's often stuffed at the line for a loss. Starks nearly always gains at least a yard or two.

Until this team figures out how to be more balanced offensively and the QB drops his ego and takes the 5 yard easy out over the 25 yarder into double coverage ... mediocre is all we'll see.
thanks Post received 1 applause.
play2win on 10/9/2012(UTC)
Offline play2win  
#38 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 5:49:03 AM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

United States
Joined: 3/29/2012(UTC)
Location: Milwaukee
Applause Given: 1,076
Applause Received: 724
Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
This goes along what Shawn and I have been trying to get through to you for a couple years now. The attempts are what keeps a defense honest. A solid 60/40 pass/run ratio is very good for an offense as it opens up a lot of opportunities. Right now the Packers are being manhandled by a two high safety scheme because they are not worried about the second level being reached by a RB or a slant pass.

I'd rather see James Starks than Alex Green running the ball, even though Green has the potential to break one, he's often stuffed at the line for a loss. Starks nearly always gains at least a yard or two.

Until this team figures out how to be more balanced offensively and the QB drops his ego and takes the 5 yard easy out over the 25 yarder into double coverage ... mediocre is all we'll see.


I wish I could applaud twice!

I realize rule changes have made it much easier to pass in today's NFL, but that doesn't mean you throw out the basic tenants of the game.

Pound the fricken football +25 attempts by your RBs (QB scrambles don't count here) and I would say we win 9 out of 10 games. Especially with what that does to a defense, against our passing game. Without it, we clearly see we have no passing game.

Really simple stuff.
Offline Porforis  
#39 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 6:17:29 AM(UTC)
Rank: Veteran Member

United States
Joined: 8/22/2009(UTC)
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Applause Given: 298
Applause Received: 574
I'm not saying that it's false, but multiple people keep saying that all you need to do is run the ball, yards don't matter a lick and that it's unintuitive but true. I see people dropping stats about poor rushing teams winning big, but does anybody have some examples of truly ineffective rushing teams (< 3 YPC) being successful? It's definitely unintuitive but I'm no more of an expert than anyone else here (and less of an expert than many), I'd just like a more in-depth explanation of WHY it works with some specific examples.

For example, if you're averaging 2 YPC 8 games in, why wouldn't an opposing defense want to play with an emphasis on passing every down unless it's an obvious running situation? Focus on nullifying your opponent's strengths, not their weaknesses. Yeah, if they're running it 20-25 times a game they might average 3-4 a carry if you don't respect the run but let them try to beat you on the ground and shut them down through the air. 75-100 yards on the ground isn't going to kill you if they're ineffective passing the ball and get minimal benefit from running the play action.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#40 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 6:35:09 AM(UTC)
Rank: Premier Member

Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Gold: 2015Yahoo! Fantasy Football - Gold: 2009FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Silver: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Silver: 2011ESPN NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2013

United States
Joined: 10/13/2006(UTC)
Location: Green Bay, WI
Applause Given: 2,448
Applause Received: 3,870
Porforis said: Go to Quoted Post
I'm not saying that it's false, but multiple people keep saying that all you need to do is run the ball, yards don't matter a lick and that it's unintuitive but true.


I had to stop reading here to clarify this. No one is saying yards mean nothing at all. What is being said is you don't need an elite (Adrian Peterson) RB to keep the defense honest. You need attempts, attempts that garner positive yardage. Even if you get 2 yards per attempt, that changes 1st and 10 to 2nd and 8 or 2nd and 6 to 3rd and 4.

Ideally you want a running back who gets 4 yards per attempt, never fumbles and has very sound protection while being above average at receiving out of the backfield.

JAMES STARKS WILL BE THAT GUY!!


:-"
Rss Feed 
Users browsing this topic
Guest (2)
7 Pages«<23456>»
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Notification

Icon
Error


Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (2h) : Today's Birthdays: TengoJuego (29)
Smokey (10h) : GO NAVY, BEAT ARMY !
Smokey (9-Dec) : 60% chance of SNOW in GB on Sunday. Most likely to fall before noon .
Smokey (8-Dec) : JOIN THE FORUM AND POST YOUR VIEWS !
The_Green_Ninja (8-Dec) : ...bro his senior year turns into a different person drunk. Gets in fights. And one time trashed out a Pita Pit by throwing his food
The_Green_Ninja (8-Dec) : Fun fact from people I know who knew Dak Prescott when he was at Mississippi State...
Pack93z (7-Dec) : @Dhazer Winning the regular season title.... lol... good for a soggy cookie... see you in the playoffs.. ;)
Nonstopdrivel (7-Dec) : In any case, Rashaan Salaam died this week.
Nonstopdrivel (7-Dec) : Didn't there used to be a member who posted as Rashaan Salami?
Smokey (7-Dec) : REMEMBER PEARL HARBOR , 75 years ago today. God Bless America
Zero2Cool (7-Dec) : Today's Birthdays: Gilligan (46)
Smokey (7-Dec) : The TFFL could use 4 more like you Jon. Know any that wants to join next year ?
Smokey (7-Dec) : I am proud of you Jon .
Smokey (7-Dec) : Yes Jon, you can indeed be proud of your efforts . I am .
rabidgopher04 (7-Dec) : league behind you and the other guy.
rabidgopher04 (7-Dec) : @Smokey - tough competition for sure. I'm not holding my breath. Just glad I could rebound after a bad start. 3rd most points scored in the
Smokey (7-Dec) : You won what other league dhazer ?
Smokey (7-Dec) : for
Smokey (7-Dec) : Low blow dhazer, 5 min. in the penalty box foe slashing ! lol
Smokey (7-Dec) : Yes, fine job rabid. Now compete with the other 9 - 4 in the league . ;) LOL !
rabidgopher04 (7-Dec) : Correction: I am second seed in the playoffs
rabidgopher04 (7-Dec) : I crawled my way back from 2-6 to 7-6 to win my division and 3rd place in Tailgaters FFL. Playoff should be fun.
Zero2Cool (6-Dec) : ;-)
dhazer (6-Dec) : i clinched last place in the Packershome thanks to the awesome draft skills of smokey lol and won the other league
Zero2Cool (6-Dec) : Wow. Rashaan Salaam was found dead Monday night at a park in Boulder. Police said there was no sign of foul play. He was 42
Pack93z (6-Dec) : In one league I went from 2-5 to 8-5 and clinched a playoff spot... #Believe Best I have for the Packers at the moment.
Zero2Cool (6-Dec) : Sweet. I backed my sweet ass into the playoffs. 8th and final seed.
Smokey (6-Dec) : Thank you Zero, I also just finished the Reg. Fantasy season at #1 . (Tailgaters Fantasy Football League ) .
The_Green_Ninja (5-Dec) : Same ol' Jay xD
Zero2Cool (5-Dec) : Aaron Rodgers over the last 7 games: 302 passing yards/game, 19 TDs, 3 INTs, 104.6 passer rating. 212 rushing yards, TD.
Zero2Cool (5-Dec) : Nice! I noticed you rocked your NFL Picks this week too! Nice work!!
Smokey (5-Dec) : Yes, he got me 29 fantasy points !
Zero2Cool (5-Dec) : Didn't David Johnson have a really good game though?
DarkaneRules (4-Dec) : cardinals run game looks worse than ours
Zero2Cool (4-Dec) : Packers inactives v Texans: WR Trevor Davis CB Makinton Dorleant ILB Blake Martinez OLB Kyler Fackrell RG Lang C Tretter DT Christian Ringo
Please sign in to use Fan Shout

2016 Packers Schedule
Sunday, Sep 11 @ 12:00 PM
at Jaguars
Sunday, Sep 18 @ 7:30 PM
at Vikings
Sunday, Sep 25 @ 12:00 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Oct 2 @ 12:00 AM
BYE
Sunday, Oct 9 @ 7:30 PM
GIANTS
Sunday, Oct 16 @ 3:25 PM
COWBOYS
Thursday, Oct 20 @ 7:25 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Oct 30 @ 3:25 PM
at Falcons
Sunday, Nov 6 @ 3:25 PM
COLTS
Sunday, Nov 13 @ 12:00 PM
at Titans
Sunday, Nov 20 @ 7:30 PM
at Redskins
Monday, Nov 28 @ 7:30 PM
at Eagles
Sunday, Dec 4 @ 12:00 PM
TEXANS
Sunday, Dec 11 @ 3:25 PM
SEAHAWKS
Sunday, Dec 18 @ 12:00 PM
at Bears
Saturday, Dec 24 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Jan 1 @ 12:00 PM
at Lions

Think About It
Think About It

Recent Topics
51m / Green Bay Packers Talk / RaiderPride

5h / Green Bay Packers Talk / nerdmann

23h / Green Bay Packers Talk / nerdmann

9-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / The_Green_Ninja

9-Dec / Fantasy Sports Talk / Smokey

8-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

8-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

8-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / steveishere

7-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / Porforis

7-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

7-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / PackFanWithTwins

7-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

7-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

6-Dec / Fantasy Sports Talk / Zero2Cool

6-Dec / Green Bay Packers Talk / packerfanoutwest


Packers Headlines