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Offline play2win  
#46 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 1:01:08 PM(UTC)

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Pack93z said: Go to Quoted Post
I concur.. 100%.

If I had my druthers.. I would design a team in the model of a balanced team. Probably even run first, however the current NFL rules would sway that. If you can effectively run the ball, you control the game. If you have a QB worth his salt, he is going to find success in the passing game with an effective running game behind him.

Basically you dictate to opposition and that carries over into the defense as well.

Trying to pass first allows the defense to sort of dictate to you, you are going to take what they give you in coverage. That is not how I want a football team to be modeled.. I want that control. I want to dictate pace, the emotions and the clock of that game.

A locker room is a funny place, a bunch of hyper and testosterone flowing guys that feed off emotion of the game. The big hits.. the small victories within a game. There is nothing like punching the rock down someones throat and them looking at you like there is nothing they can do. Whipped. I have been on both sides of that coin at the lower levels.. there is nothing like that natural high.

I truly believe that is why we seem to play to the level of the competition often and at times (lately most of the time) seem to lack fire. We are a opportunistic type team in place of a dictating type team. We don't take what we want.. we take the path of least resistance.

Balance gives you more room for error, and in the NFL, every little edge or play may mean a win or a loss.


That was palpable in last night's HOU v. NYJ game. HOU forced their will on the Jets. Beat them down with the run. The Jets D looked completely gassed. For the Packers, the beauty is that we have the talent to throw down in similar fashion. Mike just needs to call it. I think our passing attack would become way more potent as a result, and our D would benefit from less reps.

HOU's D has the fewest reps in the NFL. No wonder they are rated #3 overall, behind only SEA and SF, two more teams who have no problems calling 32+ attempts per game - that is their average attempts. All of them. HOU #2 rushing. SEA #4. SF #6.
Offline macbob  
#47 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 4:44:02 PM(UTC)

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play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
That was palpable in last night's HOU v. NYJ game. HOU forced their will on the Jets. Beat them down with the run. The Jets D looked completely gassed. For the Packers, the beauty is that we have the talent to throw down in similar fashion. Mike just needs to call it. I think our passing attack would become way more potent as a result, and our D would benefit from less reps.

HOU's D has the fewest reps in the NFL. No wonder they are rated #3 overall, behind only SEA and SF, two more teams who have no problems calling 32+ attempts per game - that is their average attempts. All of them. HOU #2 rushing. SEA #4. SF #6.


What I liked about Houston's offense was the mix of plays. They'd run the ball out of a running formation (rather than a draw out of the shotgun), then follow it up with a play-action pass. Because of the run, the LBs had to honor the run threat, couldn't just drop back in zone, and the middle of the field was open for the pass. Next play another run from the I, followed by another play-action pass. As a result, Hou is dominating time of possession 60-40%.
Mike McCarthy too many times has pretty much abandoned that type of game plan. I just hope Mike McCarthy is paying attention as he watches the Hou-Jets film to get ready for this week's game.
Offline Pack93z  
#48 Posted : Thursday, October 18, 2012 8:06:01 PM(UTC)

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So on another board.. in the same type of argument we have been wagering for some time, with Zombie finally conceding I may add (lol), I took it to task to look at the Rodgers tenure in numbers when we run more than 20 times vs less than 20 times a game.


UserPostedImage

In almost every case, running the ball has a positive effect on the team. From sacks to defense to yard per pass attempt, all for the sacrifice of 1.55 pass attempts a game.

The winning percentage looks at only those amount of games, IE when we rush more than 20 times, we win 80% of those games.


Damn auto sizing.. lol... attached the image.
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Offline Zero2Cool  
#49 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 5:13:06 AM(UTC)

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Pack93z said: Go to Quoted Post
So on another board


UserPostedImage

Offline Pack93z  
#50 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 5:43:06 AM(UTC)

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No traitor here.


But later today I will throw Zombie a bone.. because the numbers that I thought were going to be there with ypc, just are not what they appear to be. Color me shocked.
Offline zombieslayer  
#51 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:09:45 AM(UTC)

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Pack - I had a bunch of arguments:
1) Elite RBs are actually bad because they take money from other areas,
2) Rushing success has no bearing on a team's success,
3) Pass/run %

I didn't "concede" anything. I admit when I'm wrong. I was right about 1 and 2 and wrong about 3. I thought we could go more gung ho on pass %, but found the sweet spot is less than I thought, more high 50s than 65% which I wanted.

I know you just like to ruffle my feathers, but come on. Most of my arguments about running have been correct, and the NFL knows it. Ted Thompson follows #1 and I bet you had I told him these 3 arguments 2 or 3 years ago back when I was making it, if it was behind closed doors, he'd agree with #1 and most likely #2.

And you all have to admit that not only is Mike McCarthy a pass first coach (despite what he tells the media), it generally works. If we become a team that runs in the 50s, we will lose. That crap doesn't work in today's NFL.

So if anything, I was WAY ahead of all of you because I said this years ago.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#52 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:16:25 AM(UTC)

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"Success" I feel is a relative term. Rushing Yards holds little to no bearing on winning is what I believe to be accurate. Rushing Attempts gaining any positive yards consistently I would have to imagine has a positive impact on the Passing game. Which in turn assists a higher Offensive QB Rating, which I believe Offensive / Defensive QB Rating differential holds a very direct bearing on winning/losing games.

Truth be told, there is no script to winning, other than scoring more points than the other team. If there were such a script, I can think of 32 teams that would be using it in the NFL, thus, nullifying said script's value.


I maintain as I said several times, pass 60, run 40 in terms of percentage yields the best outcome as it keeps the defense more honest than say 70/30 ratio.
Offline zombieslayer  
#53 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:24:53 AM(UTC)

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Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
"Success" I feel is a relative term. Rushing Yards holds little to no bearing on winning is what I believe to be accurate. Rushing Attempts gaining any positive yards consistently I would have to imagine has a positive impact on the Passing game. Which in turn assists a higher Offensive QB Rating, which I believe Offensive / Defensive QB Rating differential holds a very direct bearing on winning/losing games.

Truth be told, there is no script to winning, other than scoring more points than the other team. If there were such a script, I can think of 32 teams that would be using it in the NFL, thus, nullifying said script's value.


I maintain as I said several times, pass 60, run 40 in terms of percentage yields the best outcome as it keeps the defense more honest than say 70/30 ratio.


Yes, that's about right. And no, there is no script. But if you're a run, run, pass, punt team, you won't get far in today's NFL.

Now, this is ONLY one game, but if you look at GB vs Houston, we were definitely a pass first team and it worked. 37 passes vs 33 rushes was deceptive. Mike McCarthy called mostly pass plays until the game was completely sealed.

When we were up 35-17, Mike McCarthy had called (assuming Mike calls the plays and given that Aaron is allowed to change them at the line) 35 passes vs 21 rushes. The last 4 drives were just rushes (with 2 passes thrown in there) to eat the clock.

So it's obvious that in this specific game, going pass first worked. And this is credit that Pack93z fails to give me and Mike McCarthy. I've said since 2007 that Mike McCarthy calls a game pretty much how I would have called it. He has become my favorite Packers coach that I've ever watched. By far. And that includes Mike Holmgren.

As for the word success, it only means one thing to me - winning SBs. Everything short of winning a SB is a less than successful season. We're the Packers, not the Vikings.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#54 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:33:31 AM(UTC)

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I think it's more like 41 pass plays and 29 rush plays. I don't think the two runs by Aaron Rodgers were designed runs, and the two sacks were passing plays. One of Rodgers rushes were on a 3rd and 1, could be a run play??? 40 30?

58.6% pass
41.4% run

awfully close to my 60/40 ratio target


Packers actually lost time of possession in this game by 5 minutes too.


Edit, you can find this link in the check this out sticky too.
http://www.mortgageloanc...rating_differential.html

Packers leading the league in QB Rating differential ... uh oh NFL ... you fucked! I found that encouraging. I'm hoping it translates into #5, if you know what I mean.

Edit2, here's some links that support my theory on qb rating differential if you still don't believe me.
http://sportsillustrated...ing-qb-rating/index.html
http://www.coldhardfootb...t-the-passing-game/8213/
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zombieslayer on 10/19/2012(UTC)
Offline zombieslayer  
#55 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 9:17:49 AM(UTC)

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Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
I think it's more like 41 pass plays and 29 rush plays. I don't think the two runs by Aaron Rodgers were designed runs, and the two sacks were passing plays. One of Rodgers rushes were on a 3rd and 1, could be a run play??? 40 30?

58.6% pass
41.4% run

awfully close to my 60/40 ratio target


Packers actually lost time of possession in this game by 5 minutes too.


Edit, you can find this link in the check this out sticky too.
http://www.mortgageloanc...rating_differential.html

Packers leading the league in QB Rating differential ... uh oh NFL ... you fucked! I found that encouraging. I'm hoping it translates into #5, if you know what I mean.


Speaking of QB Rating differential (which may be THE stat that's closest to a team's success), I wonder what happened to Dexter_Sinister. He used to give us those updates.

And yeah, I know what you mean. Hope so too. [-o<
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