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macbob  
#41 Posted : Monday, October 22, 2012 3:16:36 PM(UTC)
I agree that Green is good enough. Give him more opportunity and he'll get better.

Disagree with Zombie that yards don't matter. They do matter--if everytime you ran the ball the play went for a touchdown you'd attract a LOT of attention to your running game. If everytime you run it goes for -10, not so much.

So, production in the running game has SOME impact on attracting the D's attention away from your passing game--the better the production the more distracting.

What production do you need to gain to get the D's attention? I'm not sure, and I'm not even sure how you'd come up with the stats to support a minimum yards per carry.

My expectation is that it would vary based on the situation during the game--if you're winning by 20 the D may be paying more attention to the run because they expect you to run more. If you're down by 20 then it will take a LOT more production from the running game to distract the D from your passing game.

In any event, Green kept the D honest this week, even with the low yards-per-carry.
wpr  
#42 Posted : Monday, October 22, 2012 6:08:54 PM(UTC)
macbob said: Go to Quoted Post

What production do you need to gain to get the D's attention? I'm not sure, and I'm not even sure how you'd come up with the stats to support a minimum yards per carry.



I agree the score and time left int he game will matter but in general I would say it is somewhere between 1.8 and 3.0 avg.

Code:
HOU 	22 	65 	3.0
STL 	20 	35 	1.8 
zombieslayer  
#43 Posted : Monday, October 22, 2012 8:44:39 PM(UTC)
macbob said: Go to Quoted Post
I agree that Green is good enough. Give him more opportunity and he'll get better.

Disagree with Zombie that yards don't matter. They do matter--if everytime you ran the ball the play went for a touchdown you'd attract a LOT of attention to your running game. If everytime you run it goes for -10, not so much.

So, production in the running game has SOME impact on attracting the D's attention away from your passing game--the better the production the more distracting.

What production do you need to gain to get the D's attention? I'm not sure, and I'm not even sure how you'd come up with the stats to support a minimum yards per carry.

My expectation is that it would vary based on the situation during the game--if you're winning by 20 the D may be paying more attention to the run because they expect you to run more. If you're down by 20 then it will take a LOT more production from the running game to distract the D from your passing game.

In any event, Green kept the D honest this week, even with the low runs-per-carry.


Wait. Now I'm not getting what you're saying.

You're saying that Green kept the D honest this week, even with the low runs-per-carry. That, we agree on.

But you're saying I'm wrong about the yards not mattering. How much worse can you get than 35 yards on 20 carries? Was there any RB in the NFL in the 2012 season that got such crappy production on 20 carries? Anyone? Beuller?

If anything, THAT just proved my point. The yards don't matter. 35 yards on 20 carries is downright awful. Which is great from my perspective, because we got our carries, and with such crappy production, Green can't go to Ted Thompson with a straight face and say "Hey Ted, I want $1 million a year or else I'll sign with the Buffalo Bills." The usually stone faced Ted will wet himself laughing.

And this is exactly the scenario The Zombieslayer wants - a crappy RB who can run the ball 20+ times a game and doesn't fumble. Bonus if he's a good blocker. Secondary bonus if he's a good receiver.
RaiderPride  
#44 Posted : Monday, October 22, 2012 9:49:08 PM(UTC)
buckeyepackfan said: Go to Quoted Post
I'm just thinking to myself, wonder what Ryan Grant is thinking.
Probably, man I feel sorry for that kid, I put up 1200+ yds a yr. before I was injured and most wanted me gone, this kid has no chance. Oh well better him than me.


Perhaps... But if Ryan Grant is honest to himself, he is most likely thinking...

Thank GOD the Packers pulled me out of a failed football career, by plucking me out of a practice squad, and giving me an opportunity. An opportunity to step into a position that 12 other practice squad running backs would have produced the numbers as I did. Thank God I had the opportunity to be over paid by screwing the Packers and holding them hostage due to the turmoil the team was in during my contract negotiations.



Gaycandybacon  
#45 Posted : Monday, October 22, 2012 10:01:29 PM(UTC)
I just don't know what peoples expectations are anymore... Ecspecially expectations for a passing team. People should realise our short passing game is our running game. Dumpoffs, Running back screens, option to run or throw a bubble screen etc. etc. They all help us move the chains. Kuhn, Cobb, and Green all excell at this. We dominated the TOP with these types of things sunday. Some of you guys should know yards don't tell the whole story. Running for big yards is overrated.

Would you rather have Adrain Peterson or Aaron Rodgers win you games? Choose wisely boys.
RaiderPride  
#46 Posted : Monday, October 22, 2012 10:17:30 PM(UTC)
Gaycandybacon said: Go to Quoted Post
I just don't know what peoples expectations are anymore... Ecspecially expectations for a passing team. People should realise our short passing game is our running game. Dumpoffs, Running back screens, option to run or throw a bubble screen etc. etc. They all help us move the chains. Kuhn, Cobb, and Green all excell at this. We dominated the TOP with these types of things sunday. Some of you guys should know yards don't tell the whole story. Running for big yards is overrated.

Would you rather have Adrain Peterson or Aaron Rodgers win you games? Choose wisely boys.


I will not only applaud your thinking and logic.. I shall re-post it.

Mike and the coaches/coordinators have excelled in mastering the T.O.P. (Time Of Possession) mastery in the second half of the last two games.

nerdmann  
#47 Posted : Monday, October 22, 2012 10:46:02 PM(UTC)
Gaycandybacon said: Go to Quoted Post
I just don't know what peoples expectations are anymore... Ecspecially expectations for a passing team. People should realise our short passing game is our running game. Dumpoffs, Running back screens, option to run or throw a bubble screen etc. etc. They all help us move the chains. Kuhn, Cobb, and Green all excell at this. We dominated the TOP with these types of things sunday. Some of you guys should know yards don't tell the whole story. Running for big yards is overrated.

Would you rather have Adrain Peterson or Aaron Rodgers win you games? Choose wisely boys.


I'm all for short, high percentage passing. That's classic WCO.

Unfortunately Mike McCarthy prefers a vertical "Run and Shoot" philosophy, which doesn't include much consideration for ToP. Oh yeah, and also with zone blocking. lol
Gaycandybacon  
#48 Posted : Monday, October 22, 2012 11:21:51 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
I'm all for short, high percentage passing. That's classic WCO.

Unfortunately Mike McCarthy prefers a vertical "Run and Shoot" philosophy, which doesn't include much consideration for ToP. Oh yeah, and also with zone blocking. lol


I think Mike likes an Up Tempo Versitle Offense. He challanges the Offensive players to play in any formation, and expects them to execute in every one of the plays. It's not so much run it once then hope for the best and throw down field. He plays to situational football. When he gets an oppurtunity he will take his shots. Sure the Offense was not performing well for a couple of games. But in the last 2 games I say we've put together the fourmula to win each time. Pass the ball and keep the flow of the game at a fast pace keeping that defense off balanced. And we balance that passing game with tons of carries and effective short passing. Give Green and company a few games to get this run game going. It'll get better.
steveishere  
#49 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2012 4:10:17 AM(UTC)
PackFanWithTwins said: Go to Quoted Post
I can't say we can't run, we never even line up to try.

I can think of One attempt and it was a Rodgers sneak. And we have been in some 3rd and <1yard. We get 3rd and 1 and we go 5 wide. That is what pisses me off.


GB has been pretty good as far as I know in recent years at converting 3rd downs. So long as they convert why should it piss you off how they did it?
PackFanWithTwins  
#50 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2012 5:53:49 AM(UTC)
steveishere said: Go to Quoted Post
GB has been pretty good as far as I know in recent years at converting 3rd downs. So long as they convert why should it piss you off how they did it?


We have been good at 3rd downs, but not at 3rd and short. On pass plays in general, we drop about 13% on 3rd & <2 from 3rd and 3-7. NFL wide, 70% conversion when running on 3rd & 1, 58% passing. Kuhn alone is almost 80% on his attempts at 3rd/4th and 1.

Not saying we have to run on them all. But at least line up and make it look like we might, and use the odds to give us what ever advantage we can get. When we go shotgun and empty the back field, it takes the option completely away.
Zero2Cool  
#51 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2012 6:01:39 AM(UTC)
Mike McCarthy said:
I wasn’t real happy with the production in the run game. I thought we left too many hard yards on the field. There were too many 1, 2-yard runs that should have been hardball 3, 4, 5-yard runs. We need to improve that aspect of our offense.
TheKanataThrilla  
#52 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2012 6:53:12 AM(UTC)
PackFanWithTwins said: Go to Quoted Post
We have been good at 3rd downs, but not at 3rd and short. On pass plays in general, we drop about 13% on 3rd & <2 from 3rd and 3-7.


If Mike McCarthy is such the stats guy maybe we should false start on 3rd and short to increase our chances at the first down. :-k

PackerTraxx  
#53 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2012 7:27:55 AM(UTC)
Rodgers seems to be a little more patient the last two games throwing short 5-6 yard passes and swing passes that pick up 12-15 yards. Ala WCO. This can be as effective as a good running game and Green contributes to that. Don't get me wrong I too would like us to add a good running game to our arsenal. But until that happens we have to do what we can.
zombieslayer  
#54 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2012 10:01:07 AM(UTC)
Gaycandybacon said: Go to Quoted Post
I just don't know what peoples expectations are anymore... Ecspecially expectations for a passing team. People should realise our short passing game is our running game. Dumpoffs, Running back screens, option to run or throw a bubble screen etc. etc. They all help us move the chains. Kuhn, Cobb, and Green all excell at this. We dominated the TOP with these types of things sunday. Some of you guys should know yards don't tell the whole story. Running for big yards is overrated.

Would you rather have Adrain Peterson or Aaron Rodgers win you games? Choose wisely boys.


Wish I could give you more than one applause point for this.

We are a passing team. And we will remain a passing team as long as Aaron Rodgers is our QB and Mike McCarthy is our Coach.

Run just enough to keep the opposing D honest and to give our D a rest, blah blah blah, but we're a passing team. We win games by throwing the ball well, not by running the football.

Give Aaron Rodgers an elite receiving set. Who cares who's running the football as long as he doesn't fumble? Bonus if he can block. Bonus if he's a good receiver.

I'd rather have Alex Green and Aaron Rodgers than Adrian Peterson and Christian Ponder. With some of you folks, I seriously question if you'd want it the other way around.
nerdmann  
#55 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2012 10:13:23 AM(UTC)
PackerTraxx said: Go to Quoted Post
Rodgers seems to be a little more patient the last two games throwing short 5-6 yard passes and swing passes that pick up 12-15 yards. Ala WCO. This can be as effective as a good running game and Green contributes to that. Don't get me wrong I too would like us to add a good running game to our arsenal. But until that happens we have to do what we can.


All purpose, Green was 2.8 per touch.
PackFanWithTwins  
#56 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2012 10:33:24 AM(UTC)
First 1/2 of the game, of 26 real plays (not counting clocking). 21 plays from shotgun, 5 from conventional.

Second 1/2 of the game, 23 plays shotgun, 17 conventional.

Second half was better, but when you are in shotgun that often, it makes it difficult on the Oline, and makes running harder. There are very few options in the run game out of shotgun. which leaves very few things defense has to worry about. No fear of a run game, and QB in a predictable depth to rush at allows defense to be very aggressive in their pass rush.

We need more standard formations, use 1 and 3 step drops, on some quick plays. Run the ball forwards instead of sideways.
Pack93z  
#57 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2012 11:48:51 AM(UTC)
All that is needed with the rules as they are is the threat of the run to assist the offense, I could roll onto the soapbox again, but as ZS says.. Blah, Blah, Blah. If you haven't heard it here enough, well before the pundits, well then continue on as you wish.

We should be a pass heavy team with our talent and the rules as they are.

I spent a couple hours compiling the numbers during Rodgers tenure, those numbers don't lie. 80% of the games in which we run the ball with the backs 20 times.. we win. Garbage time (4 Qtr) runs only see a 2% increase over the number of carries of the next highest quarter.

We only win at a clip of ~45% of the time when we don't run the ball with the backs 20 times.

I will take 80% over 45% any day of the week, including and especially Sundays. :)
wpr  
#58 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2012 12:26:57 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
All purpose, Green was 2.8 per touch.


they aught to release the bum. he's worthless. who cares that they are 2-0 in his starts. who cares if the OL is culpable for his numbers. who cares that 8 of his 12 carries were in the 4th quarter with GB milking the clock and the rams expecting the run. it is all green's fault that GB lost. Oh wait... never mind.
zombieslayer  
#59 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2012 2:29:42 PM(UTC)
Pack93z said: Go to Quoted Post
All that is needed with the rules as they are is the threat of the run to assist the offense, I could roll onto the soapbox again, but as ZS says.. Blah, Blah, Blah. If you haven't heard it here enough, well before the pundits, well then continue on as you wish.

We should be a pass heavy team with our talent and the rules as they are.

I spent a couple hours compiling the numbers during Rodgers tenure, those numbers don't lie. 80% of the games in which we run the ball with the backs 20 times.. we win. Garbage time (4 Qtr) runs only see a 2% increase over the number of carries of the next highest quarter.

We only win at a clip of ~45% of the time when we don't run the ball with the backs 20 times.

I will take 80% over 45% any day of the week, including and especially Sundays. :)


Yes. Thus 20 carries for 35 yards by Green is perfect.

Do that all season long and we'll be fighting for Playoff position.
doddpower  
#60 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2012 2:46:45 PM(UTC)
PackFanWithTwins said: Go to Quoted Post
First 1/2 of the game, of 26 real plays (not counting clocking). 21 plays from shotgun, 5 from conventional.

Second 1/2 of the game, 23 plays shotgun, 17 conventional.

Second half was better, but when you are in shotgun that often, it makes it difficult on the Oline, and makes running harder. There are very few options in the run game out of shotgun. which leaves very few things defense has to worry about. No fear of a run game, and QB in a predictable depth to rush at allows defense to be very aggressive in their pass rush.

We need more standard formations, use 1 and 3 step drops, on some quick plays. Run the ball forwards instead of sideways.


A team can still do power runs from a shotgun formation. Personally, I'd like to see more of those. It'd be nice to see Lang and/or Sitton pulling and mauling defensive players.

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