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Offline play2win  
#46 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 9:49:05 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Tezzy Go to Quoted Post
Longwell had two slump seasons he overcame in his career, a 22 pt(86% to 64% back to 82%) in 2000-2002 and yet another season with a 11 pt drop. Morten Anderson had successive seasons of 85%+ followed by successive season of less than 72%, and back to seasons in the 80%+. What about Nick Folk, he plummets from 90% to 65%, and after three straight improving seasons, kicking at 82% this season. I disagree that it is rare or nonexistent for kickers to get out of slumps.

I think Mason can get back to his already pedestrian, but most the time tolerable, sub 80% lifetime. If Mason can recover for the remainder of the season he can get back to respectable and still maintain a pretty solid career stat line.



Teezy, you are right that there are instances where kickers have gotten out of slumps, so, the "non-existent" statement I made was incorrect. However, they are indeed rare. You would have to admit that.

BTW, it is normal for an ebb and flow type of percentage for accuracy amongst all kickers from one season to the next. That is the norm. The thing that has me concerned is actually climbing out of a rather severe slump. He was fine prior to the IND game, making 100% of his FGs, with a long of 54 yds. Since that game he had made just 6 of his 13 attempts, with a long of 48 @ STL.
Offline Pack93z  
#47 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 10:20:38 AM(UTC)
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I don't know if it is that rare of a thing.

Took a look at three of the longest tenured K's in the league.

David Akers, Jason Hanson, Adam Vinatieri.

All have had sucessive seasons with drops or peaks of greater than 10% from the previous season. For a graphical look..
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I think when there's enough will and aggression, there's no shortage of talent either.

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Kyle on 11/20/2012(UTC)
Offline Pack93z  
#48 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 10:24:02 AM(UTC)
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The problem, if any with Mason is that he is a lower percentage kicker overall, so his lows seem more apparent.

But just the same, the Packers resigned him with that knowledge in place.
I think when there's enough will and aggression, there's no shortage of talent either.

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Offline Pack93z  
#49 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 10:42:32 AM(UTC)
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I wanted to slice the numbers for kickers, by summary comparisons.

By range, by overall percentage and percent of their attempts over 50 yards, something I thought Crosby had suffered by the hands of MM. Meaning that he had a proportionally higher attempts in relation to all attempts from over 50 yards because of his leg strength.



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I think when there's enough will and aggression, there's no shortage of talent either.

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Kyle on 11/20/2012(UTC)
Offline play2win  
#50 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 12:04:52 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Pack93z Go to Quoted Post
I don't know if it is that rare of a thing.

Took a look at three of the longest tenured K's in the league.

David Akers, Jason Hanson, Adam Vinatieri.

All have had sucessive seasons with drops or peaks of greater than 10% from the previous season. For a graphical look..


Yeah, but the mean there is around 75%. As I mentioned, the norm is an ebb and flow from year to year. He was perfect through the first 4 games, with 0 attempts in two of those contests (5-5 in both CHI and SEA games).

The last 6 weeks he is kicking at 46%, which is WAY out of that mean. That is where I have a concern. Every kicker slumps to some extent at certain points in their careers. It is just, how badly, and for how long.

I would say this a considerable stretch here. I hope he can climb out of it. He has remarkable support from his coaches and teammates. I'm pulling for him, as I am a pretty big fan of his.
Offline Pack93z  
#51 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 12:56:03 PM(UTC)
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I am trying to leverage your point and looking for similarities within seasons. Just took one.

Jason Hanson - 2001. Career 82.80% kicker.

He had to stretches in 2001 that were way out of mean..

Kicks 5 - 18 Made 9 of 14 - 64.28% - Average Length of miss - 48.2 (one 65 yarder all others under 50) - 18.52 points from norm.

Kicks 17 - 29 Made 7 of 13 - 53.85% - Average Length of miss - 47.2 (two 51 rest under 50) - 28.95 points from norm.

Now compare that to Crosby - Career 78.23% kicker.

Kicks 6 - 18 Made 6 of 13 - 45.15% - Average Length of miss - 46.42 ( 4 of 50 or more, including a 58 yarder) - 33.08 points from norm.


Again.. each of the three tenured kicks have similar patterns, they all seem to go into slumps similar to Crosby's at the moment.

All I am trying to illustrate here is that the sky isn't falling in terms of Crosby at the moment, actually this is somewhat normal swoon for a kicker.

Again, if there is a problem here is the overall performance from Crosby to this point in his career, a lower percentage overall. But for Aikman and others to say that this is atypical of a kicker overall, slumps wise, it just isn't that different than some of the most tenured kickers in the game today.

Even then.. it is 4 points lower than a kicker that has kicked a majority of his kicks in a dome.
I think when there's enough will and aggression, there's no shortage of talent either.

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Offline play2win  
#52 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 1:07:57 PM(UTC)
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Its cool Pack93. Yeah, I'm just trying like crazy to find a similar slump to his, and coming up with very little, especially looking to those who have recovered with like slumps. I'm just not finding them. His seems a bit more severe than most when looking outside the normal swings from 85-65% ish.

I'm really just hoping for the best for him, and wanting to recognize the struggle he is facing. If he recovers from this one, I think it may go down as one of the best recoveries ever. Really. he has great support from the rest of the team, and he did make his last one. It was good that he got that, giving him something to build off of.
Offline dfosterf  
#53 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 2:16:40 PM(UTC)
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We just gotta root for him and pray, imo

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Offline Porforis  
#54 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 2:25:15 PM(UTC)
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Maybe the refs haven't been getting out the K balls.
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Offline beast  
#55 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 2:51:51 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
II'm just trying like crazy to find a similar slump to his, and coming up with very little, especially looking to those who have recovered with like slumps. I'm just not finding them. His seems a bit more severe than most when looking outside the normal swings from 85-65% ish.



Ryan Longwell's slump of 2001...

1999: 83.3
2000: 86.8%
2001: 64.5%
2002: 82.4%
2003: 88.5%

and Crosby is asked to attempt a lot more 50+ yard kicks compared to Longwell which bring Crosby average down. If you look inside of the 50 Crosby numbers (in non-slump years) normally compare with some of the better kickers in the NFL.

Inside of 50 yards, Crosby is 10 for 13 (76.9%) this (slump) year... but that doesn't seem too bad ether... only missed 3 inside of 50. But it does seem like Mike McCarthy tries more 50 yarder with Crosby than some other coaches do with their kickers.

Crosby Inside of 50
2012: 10 of 13 (76.9%)
2011: 22 of 25 (88%)
2010: 20 of 24 (83.3%)
2009: 25 of 30 (83.3%)
2008: 24 of 28 (85.7%)
2007: 28 of 34 (82.35%)
Average before 2012 (84.4%)
Crosby slump (-7.47%)

Edited by user Tuesday, November 20, 2012 3:09:54 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline dfosterf  
#56 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 2:54:21 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: beast Go to Quoted Post
Ryan Longwell's slump of 2001...

2000: 86.8%
2001: 64.5%
2002: 82.4%
2003: 88.5%

and Crosby is asked to attempt a lot more 50+ yard kicks compared to Longwell which bring Crosby average down. If you look inside of the 50 Crosby numbers (in non-slump years) normally compare with some of the better kickers in the NFL.




I think many of us stick with him because of the "eye-test" he doesn't look fucked up. I STILL like the mother-fucker.

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Offline Pack93z  
#57 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 3:07:27 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
Its cool Pack93. Yeah, I'm just trying like crazy to find a similar slump to his, and coming up with very little, especially looking to those who have recovered with like slumps. I'm just not finding them. His seems a bit more severe than most when looking outside the normal swings from 85-65% ish.


I just gave you one with looking very hard.. Hanson late season slump of 2001.

I think when there's enough will and aggression, there's no shortage of talent either.

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Offline vikesrule  
#58 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 3:25:18 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: dfosterf Go to Quoted Post
I think many of us stick with him because of the "eye-test" ....




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Offline dfosterf  
#59 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 3:34:29 PM(UTC)
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lol... fuckin' Nick...

He's got a full 70 yarder in him, I really believe that.

Friggin' kickers, they'll drive ya.

Edited by user Tuesday, November 20, 2012 5:42:25 PM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline schroeder84  
#60 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2012 6:30:10 PM(UTC)
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My son was a high level kicker (but now retired due to concussion) - scholarship worthy, and ya, those kickers heads do drive one up the wall. Sad but true - one where you need a strong head to go with the strong leg.

Mason can work out of this. His last kick was good, and even though he didn't look amused when Jennings was trying to jolly him up a bit, success on the last, and a win, will carry through. This season will be fine. Just my opinion of course, but I live with a kicker (or ex-kicker) and have an idea of the ebb and flow of kicker emotional life.
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