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Yerko  
#21 Posted : Monday, February 11, 2013 2:40:51 PM(UTC)
QCHuskerFan said: Go to Quoted Post
My reasoning for not taking a RB in the first round is you can't afford to miss in the 1st and your pick not to be a long term asset. RB's have a short shelf life. Odds are most will never see the end of their first contract and a 1st rd pick has a big contract.

Most Packer fans believe this season might have ended differently if the Packers had another stud OLineman and DLineman. Well, we did have them on the Salary schedule. Their names were Harrell and Sherrod. They ate over 2M of CAP and didn't play a down. Ted Thompson drafted exactly what we needed. Just not who we needed. Imagine if they had become the players they were picked to be?

The draft is enough of a crap shoot. Let's not waste a high pick on a player that has a short expectancy.

Just my 1.3 cents.


My counter to that is a runningback on the Packers would have a longer shelf life than a runningback on, lets say...the Browns.
A guy like Lacy would be worth it with what he would do on our offense. Its not like he would be coming onto a team that is going to rely on him (like his old teammate, Trent Richardson).

Let's say Lacy is available at 26.

Joeckel (OT)
Fisher (OT)
Lutelelie (DT)
Richardson (DT)
Hankins (DT)
Warmack (OG)
Ansah (DE)
Short (DT)
Jenkins (DT)
...are all taken before 26. Do you just ignore the stud runningback sitting there at 26 and trade down, hoping that a 2nd tier lineman such as Lane Johnson (OT), Jonathan Cooper (OG), or Sherrif Floyd (DT) fall that late in the 2nd or 3rd?

Imo, I would not pass up a blue chip runningback like Lacy and go into next season complaining about the lack of the Packers running game. Lacy is a reason to make McCarthy stick to the run game...
JustJeff  
#22 Posted : Monday, February 11, 2013 2:48:00 PM(UTC)
Barring some sort of outrageous slide, Jonathan Cooper is the only offensive player I would take in the first round.
User is suspended until 5/28/2018 11:54:40 AM(UTC) DakotaT  
#23 Posted : Monday, February 11, 2013 2:48:40 PM(UTC)
Yerko said: Go to Quoted Post
My counter to that is a runningback on the Packers would have a longer shelf life than a runningback on, lets say...the Browns.
A guy like Lacy would be worth it with what he would do on our offense. Its not like he would be coming onto a team that is going to rely on him (like his old teammate, Trent Richardson).

Let's say Lacy is available at 26.

Joeckel (OT)
Fisher (OT)
Lutelelie (DT)
Richardson (DT)
Hankins (DT)
Warmack (OG)
Ansah (DE)
Short (DT)
Jenkins (DT)
...are all taken before 26. Do you just ignore the stud runningback sitting there at 26 and trade down, hoping that a 2nd tier lineman such as Lane Johnson (OT), Jonathan Cooper (OG), or Sherrif Floyd (DT) fall that late in the 2nd or 3rd?

Imo, I would not pass up a blue chip runningback like Lacy and go into next season complaining about the lack of the Packers running game. Lacy is a reason to make McCarthy stick to the run game...


I have a hard time arguing with this logic Yerko - and I wouldn't mind having more talent in the backfield.
QCHuskerFan  
#24 Posted : Tuesday, February 12, 2013 11:00:26 AM(UTC)
steveishere said: Go to Quoted Post
The shelf life thing doesn't really mean much to me. It seems that most good RB start declining around 30 which say you draft a guy around 22 or so gives you about 8 years with him which is well beyond the first contract. If they don't see the end of their 1st contract it's usually because they aren't a good player not because they wore out or something. The 1st round contracts aren't really a big deal anymore either since the rookie wage scale.

A similarly skilled lineman or DB will no doubt take priority over a RB but it isn't a waste to take a RB in the 1st round if he's the best guy on the board and can help the team win.


2008 NFL 1st Rd picks
Oakland- McFadden decent back but has never played a full season
Panthers- Stewart 19 games started after 5 years in league, missed 7 games in 2012
Dallas- Jones 23 games started in 5 years, 545 yards/ yr avg
Steelers- Mendenhall good years 2,3,4 then blew knee and limited effectiveness part time in 2012
Titans- Chris Johnson- GREAT, durable back!!!

2009 NFL 1st Rd RB picks
Denver- Knowshon Moreno Has played 15 games in the last 2 years after a good first 2. Worn out?
Colts- Donald Brown- 1,840 yards rushing after 4 years, 15 starts in 4 years
Cardinals- Beanie Wells- 2,471 yards after 4 years, only 8 games in 2012

2010 NFL 1st Rd picks
Buffalo- CJ Spiller 2012 was great, but only ran for 844 yards in first 2 years, not impact
Chargers- Ryan Matthews hasn't played a full season yet
Lions- Jahvid Best 16 games in 2010, 6 in 2011, 0 in 2012, is he done?

Of the 11 RB's drafted in Rd 1 that would be entering their 3,4 or 5th year, I believe only 2 played a full season in 2012.

In the league's top 20 rushers in 2012, there are only 2 over 27. Neither were 30 yet, but both (Frank Gore and Stephen Jackson) will be before 2013. Good running backs don't start declining around 30. Only great ones even make it near 30. Good backs are declining the day they are drafted.
QCHuskerFan  
#25 Posted : Tuesday, February 12, 2013 11:06:36 AM(UTC)
JustJeff said: Go to Quoted Post
Sherrod was $1.5 million (and thankfully still on the roster), but we settled the books on Harrell in 2011.

Nick Collins was $2.3 million of dead cap in 2012. The other dead money hits were small (Pro-rated modest signing bonuses for guys like Datko, Coleman, Smithson and Guy). They totaled out around $100k


JSOnline showed Harrell for $500k in 2012 CAP money. Either way, my point about the right positions being drafted is valid. If those 2 had come to fruition, what if...
QCHuskerFan  
#26 Posted : Tuesday, February 12, 2013 11:13:33 AM(UTC)
Yerko said: Go to Quoted Post
My counter to that is a runningback on the Packers would have a longer shelf life than a runningback on, lets say...the Browns.
A guy like Lacy would be worth it with what he would do on our offense. Its not like he would be coming onto a team that is going to rely on him (like his old teammate, Trent Richardson).

Let's say Lacy is available at 26.

Joeckel (OT)
Fisher (OT)
Lutelelie (DT)
Richardson (DT)
Hankins (DT)
Warmack (OG)
Ansah (DE)
Short (DT)
Jenkins (DT)
...are all taken before 26. Do you just ignore the stud runningback sitting there at 26 and trade down, hoping that a 2nd tier lineman such as Lane Johnson (OT), Jonathan Cooper (OG), or Sherrif Floyd (DT) fall that late in the 2nd or 3rd?

Imo, I would not pass up a blue chip runningback like Lacy and go into next season complaining about the lack of the Packers running game. Lacy is a reason to make McCarthy stick to the run game...


I won't complain if the Packers running game is not better next year. I will complain if the DL doesn't do a better job of controlling the LOS. That's my hot button.

And, yes, I ignore Lacy at 26.
PackerTraxx  
#27 Posted : Tuesday, February 12, 2013 12:09:33 PM(UTC)
It would take some wheeling and dealing but I would love to see us end up with:

Margus Hunt, extremely low amount of experience but freakish athletic, high upside
William Gholston, could contribute very soon
This would give us two big ends for our 3-4.

Barrett Jones, would upgrade a position that is under rated, I think it would really help us and give us flexibility in case of injury.

Of course, with the info that is out there and our limited knowledge vs the coaches and Ted Thompson this is all assuming these players will be upgrades/good. This is also hoping that Bulaga and Sherrod can come back healthy and play well.

Frosting on the cake would be a sleeper receiver, safety and running back. There, now we're set!LOL
wpr  
#28 Posted : Tuesday, February 12, 2013 12:16:28 PM(UTC)
good job in your summary QC =d>

the days of spending a #1 for a rb are long over. (of course there are a few exceptions to the rule.)
porky88  
#29 Posted : Tuesday, February 12, 2013 6:14:28 PM(UTC)
Lacy and Ball played in marquee college games, so they're receiving the spotlight right now. The guy to watch is Le'Veon Bell of Michigan State. He's 6-2 and they list him at 240-245. I think he'll probably play around 225-230. Nevertheless, he has good vision, speed, and power. He always falls forward and does a great job of going north and south. He's the bell cow this team's been lacking. He may remind Mike McCarthy of Deuce McAllister but with more athleticism, so I'm throwing his name out there.

Frankly, I think teams needing a running back are going to bypass Lacy and attempt to get Bell in round two. For example, if St. Louis loses Steven Jackson via free agency, then moving back into round two for Bell is a better strategy than reaching for a running back (Lacy) that played behind one of the best college offensive lines in recent memory.
Yerko  
#30 Posted : Wednesday, February 13, 2013 12:07:34 AM(UTC)
porky88 said: Go to Quoted Post
Lacy and Ball played in marquee college games, so they're receiving the spotlight right now. The guy to watch is Le'Veon Bell of Michigan State. He's 6-2 and they list him at 240-245. I think he'll probably play around 225-230. Nevertheless, he has good vision, speed, and power. He always falls forward and does a great job of going north and south. He's the bell cow this team's been lacking. He may remind Mike McCarthy of Deuce McAllister but with more athleticism, so I'm throwing his name out there.

Frankly, I think teams needing a running back are going to bypass Lacy and attempt to get Bell in round two. For example, if St. Louis loses Steven Jackson via free agency, then moving back into round two for Bell is a better strategy than reaching for a running back (Lacy) that played behind one of the best college offensive lines in recent memory.


Porky, I liked watching this kid play for MSU but as someone stated earlier in the thread, he was a workhorse for MSU and that could potentially kill his shelf life in the NFL (maybe it doesn't).

Lacy was a reach and I was really just trying to play devil's advocate with the name. Personally, I am with a lot of this board in saying that the defensive line and offensive line is a huge priority first. With that said, a name like Le'Veon Bell comes into play with a 3rd round pick. I don't see him going any higher than 3rd round. If he is there at 3, it would be a nice addition to the Packers backfield.

I only have been making a push for a runningback in the draft because I do not think any of the guys on the roster can be a starter that can actually make a difference in the run game...even if the offensive line is fixed.
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