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PackFanWithTwins  
#1 Posted : Tuesday, February 26, 2013 7:03:17 PM(UTC)
Yes, we have a young team and Rodgers has plenty of years of playing left. But if we don't get back to the SB, this year or possibly next. It is going to get extremely difficult. The reason, being is money. Once Matthews, Raji, and more important Rodgers, we are going to have so much less room under the cap for the rest of the roster. Look at Rodgers and Brees, 17+million cap number for Brees, <10million for Rodgers. 7 million dollars difference, That is easily money to retain or upgrade 3 or 4 other positions.

Rodgers has been heard saying, how much is enough. The big question is, what will he say when it is payday. How much pressure will the NFLPA put on him to max out for the next guy.

That is why, I think Ted needs to go all-in for a year or even 2. It can be done, without destroying the future. It would be hard to find 6 or 7 roster spots for rookies. We could afford to move up this year and come away with 3 or 4 higher quality picks. We could afford to spend short term. Talk with Jennings and pay a little more than Packers normally, and a little less than he would want, in order to shoot for a title. Maybe go after Jenks or another FA that fills a need along either or both lines.

We are in position, to do some of those things and come out the other side, still with youth and depth. In a couple years, those options are going to be much harder to attempt.
nerdmann  
#2 Posted : Tuesday, February 26, 2013 7:08:52 PM(UTC)
The salary cap will start expanding again after 2015 or something like that.

The players union took all the salary cap expansion for the next few years up front to make it seem like they had a better deal than they did.
PackFanWithTwins  
#3 Posted : Tuesday, February 26, 2013 7:20:02 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
The salary cap will start expanding again after 2015 or something like that.

The players union took all the salary cap expansion for the next few years up front to make it seem like they had a better deal than they did.


Doesn't really matter what the cap is. It is more about how much of it is tied up in few players. We have had success recently because we were not paying the high end contracts that we are going to have shortly. When they are done, we won't be able to afford the quality depth we have had the benefit of having.
Rockmolder  
#4 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2013 4:46:40 AM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
The salary cap will start expanding again after 2015 or something like that.

The players union took all the salary cap expansion for the next few years up front to make it seem like they had a better deal than they did.


They made it so it'd go up more evenly throughout the years, from what I read (can't remember the source). If they hadn't done that, the cap would've actually gone down in 2012, before jumping up millions in 2015.

Anyway, I don't think we should go all-out on player spending right now, especially not on a just decent talent like Jennings, but I would like to trade up quite a bit and get some impact players in the draft. It's the affordable way of being aggressive, yet, not as expensive as signing big FAs.

We have amazing depth and we should retain that, while not stocking up on even more 6th, 7th round projects. At least, not for a year. Of course, you'll have to go back to your old strategy sooner or later or you'll be depleted of depth in a year or three, but for one year, just trade up and finish the draft with a pick or 5.

Anyway, that said, I don't think we're in as much trouble as you think we are. Even if you have a lot of money tied up in your QB position, you're still contending. Look at the Broncos, the Patriots, the Steelers... Of course you have to work around that contract at times, but it's very much possible. Even if you have to let a big name guy go from time to time.

For example, we could open up some cap space right now by letting Bishop and/or Hawk go and having Jones and Williams start... A blow to our defense, yes, but one that you can play around and doesn't hit us that hard, because of the depth we have.

Of course, I do agree with you that it'll become rather hard when 3 of your players count for 40 million dollars against the cap. I'm still hoping that Rodgers will feel a bit generous when his contract comes up and that that thinking gets to the other guys, as well, but let's be real here... These guys like to get paid and they don't owe the Packers anything, really.

I don't think the window is closing, I just think that the Pack have to play it even smarter.
steveishere  
#5 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2013 6:23:04 AM(UTC)
The Window is not closing. Though I do agree the team is solid enough right now that trading up for better players wouldn't hurt. The thing with that is you can't do it just to do it the right player has to be there to trade up for. I don't see Jennings taking "a little less" to come back to GB though, to me he sounds perfectly fine with playing to any other team. He is likely going to whoever gives him the most money, period.
Zero2Cool  
#6 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2013 6:26:15 AM(UTC)
The window has closed already. Missing out on 2011 and 2012, that was the window for this regime. I think Mike McCarthy needs a fresh start somewhere else. The team is no longer respecting him, starting with his QB.
play2win  
#7 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2013 7:03:08 AM(UTC)
Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
The window has closed already. Missing out on 2011 and 2012, that was the window for this regime. I think Mike McCarthy needs a fresh start somewhere else. The team is no longer respecting him, starting with his QB.


I don't think McCarthy has lost his team. I think he just needs to adjust a bit - play down the pass and play up the run. Play a tougher game. That starts up front offensively with your line. we were manhadled against top pass rushing lines because we were too often in pass blocking sets - highly predictable.

I also believe our losses to injury have really hurt us more than anything. That, and our depth defensively up front killed us. We had no legit starting DE. Save Perry, we had no one opposite Matthews, and Perry was just learning the position and was lost early. Losing Collins, Jenkins and Bishop killed us, and we've yet to find quality replacements.

Give Capers the players he needs for his D to be effective, along with a more punishing offense, and I like our chances. A big back and some OL adjustments would certainly help.
Porforis  
#8 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2013 7:04:58 AM(UTC)
PackFanWithTwins said: Go to Quoted Post
Yes, we have a young team and Rodgers has plenty of years of playing left. But if we don't get back to the SB, this year or possibly next. It is going to get extremely difficult. The reason, being is money. Once Matthews, Raji, and more important Rodgers, we are going to have so much less room under the cap for the rest of the roster. Look at Rodgers and Brees, 17+million cap number for Brees, <10million for Rodgers. 7 million dollars difference, That is easily money to retain or upgrade 3 or 4 other positions.

Rodgers has been heard saying, how much is enough. The big question is, what will he say when it is payday. How much pressure will the NFLPA put on him to max out for the next guy.

That is why, I think Ted needs to go all-in for a year or even 2. It can be done, without destroying the future. It would be hard to find 6 or 7 roster spots for rookies. We could afford to move up this year and come away with 3 or 4 higher quality picks. We could afford to spend short term. Talk with Jennings and pay a little more than Packers normally, and a little less than he would want, in order to shoot for a title. Maybe go after Jenks or another FA that fills a need along either or both lines.

We are in position, to do some of those things and come out the other side, still with youth and depth. In a couple years, those options are going to be much harder to attempt.


While I would certainly like to see more willingness to make mid-season free agent purchases (and not just when we don't have enough bodies left to fill roster spots), we've gotten a number of starting-quality players out of the last draft and I have no doubt that we will see at least one, probably two players out of this coming draft in a starting role and at least two more in a backup role right off the bat. If Ted weren't such a draft genius, he'd deserve to be run out of town on a rail - but that's the cornerstone of his team building philosophy.
wpr  
#9 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2013 8:09:46 AM(UTC)
play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
I don't think McCarthy has lost his team. I think he just needs to adjust a bit - play down the pass and play up the run. Play a tougher game. That starts up front offensively with your line. we were manhadled against top pass rushing lines because we were too often in pass blocking sets - highly predictable.

I also believe our losses to injury have really hurt us more than anything. That, and our depth defensively up front killed us. We had no legit starting DE. Save Perry, we had no one opposite Matthews, and Perry was just learning the position and was lost early. Losing Collins, Jenkins and Bishop killed us, and we've yet to find quality replacements.

Give Capers the players he needs for his D to be effective, along with a more punishing offense, and I like our chances. A big back and some OL adjustments would certainly help.


You may want to check with Kevin, I think he was being a little facetious with his comment.
PackerTraxx  
#10 Posted : Thursday, February 28, 2013 9:58:43 AM(UTC)
I agree the window is closing, but not very much at this point. Rodgers should have another five or so good years and I think that is a key. If he keeps getting sacked around 50 times a years like last year it could slam shut any time. If they surround him with good players where he is protected and get results it could stay open longer. TT's solid drafts can keep us contenders but a couple of pro bowl type draftees or free agents could put us over the hump. Granted, that's much easier said than done at our position draft wise and cap wise.
nerdmann  
#11 Posted : Thursday, February 28, 2013 3:43:30 PM(UTC)
PackerTraxx said: Go to Quoted Post
I agree the window is closing, but not very much at this point. Rodgers should have another five or so good years and I think that is a key. If he keeps getting sacked around 50 times a years like last year it could slam shut any time. If they surround him with good players where he is protected and get results it could stay open longer. TT's solid drafts can keep us contenders but a couple of pro bowl type draftees or free agents could put us over the hump. Granted, that's much easier said than done at our position draft wise and cap wise.


We need an OLB opposite Clay.

Be nice to see BJ Coleman come along too. Imagine being able to win even if Aaron went down.
rabidgopher04  
#12 Posted : Friday, March 1, 2013 10:49:03 AM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
You may want to check with Kevin, I think he was being a little facetious with his comment.


I wouldn't be so sure. He's said this before.
Gaycandybacon  
#13 Posted : Friday, March 1, 2013 11:48:46 AM(UTC)
Who wouldn't want Mike McCarthy as a head coach on their team? The man has great passion for the game, you see it on the sidelines every game. And he's a hell of a Offensive Guru and a awesome QB mentor. It's hard to think this team doesn't like him. 74-38 Record speaks for itself.
wpr  
#14 Posted : Friday, March 1, 2013 12:24:33 PM(UTC)
rabidgopher04 said: Go to Quoted Post
I wouldn't be so sure. He's said this before.


so a guy can't have a recurring theme and still be a smart@SS? [palm]
shield4life  
#15 Posted : Friday, March 1, 2013 12:27:20 PM(UTC)
Nick Perry coming back will help us a lot, his speed can be used against these new breed of quarterbacks!
rabidgopher04  
#16 Posted : Friday, March 1, 2013 1:50:43 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
so a guy can't have a recurring theme and still be a smart@SS? [palm]


Not Zero, never. He's a straight shooter 100% of the time.
Pack93z  
#17 Posted : Monday, March 4, 2013 12:04:48 PM(UTC)
Much like Flacco's deal.. or Brady's.. Rodgers deal will be structured so that it allows the cap hit yearly to be manageable and something that will be reworked in the future.

That is not minimizing the impacts those contracts will have on our future, but it will be more in the terms of exchanging a Woodson and Pickett for a Matthews and Raji in terms of consumed cap hit. Additionally, Ted has married this team to his more or less building through the draft approach.. so for that window to be pushed even more open again.. he has to hit again this draft for fill in pieces and Mike McCarthy and co need to continue to develop from the past two draft classes.

Looking around the league, almost every contender pass the Niners at the moment are having their windows adjusted more than ours. Maybe the Pats.

The nature of a flat cap and many teams pushing out cap hits over the past couple years. The Packers haven't done much of that.. and I don't expect much of it moving forward other than Rodgers.

The Packers have known these three players were coming up.. and entrust they have a plan to manage it and remain very much in the discussion for the Lombardi yearly.
play2win  
#18 Posted : Friday, March 15, 2013 12:27:41 PM(UTC)
Pack93z said: Go to Quoted Post
Much like Flacco's deal.. or Brady's.. Rodgers deal will be structured so that it allows the cap hit yearly to be manageable and something that will be reworked in the future.

That is not minimizing the impacts those contracts will have on our future, but it will be more in the terms of exchanging a Woodson and Pickett for a Matthews and Raji in terms of consumed cap hit. Additionally, Ted has married this team to his more or less building through the draft approach.. so for that window to be pushed even more open again.. he has to hit again this draft for fill in pieces and Mike McCarthy and co need to continue to develop from the past two draft classes.

Looking around the league, almost every contender pass the Niners at the moment are having their windows adjusted more than ours. Maybe the Pats.

The nature of a flat cap and many teams pushing out cap hits over the past couple years. The Packers haven't done much of that.. and I don't expect much of it moving forward other than Rodgers.

The Packers have known these three players were coming up.. and entrust they have a plan to manage it and remain very much in the discussion for the Lombardi yearly.


This is a great thread, with a lot of good thoughts in here.

I was just thinking about this window, and what it is really. Rodgers is 29. Flacco signed a 6 yr $120M deal. We also have Matthews and Raji figuring into a pretty big payout amongst just these 3 players.

Maybe Ted wants to throw an enormous SB at one or all 3 of these players to minimize cap figures going forward, and is willing to not play at all in FA, and essentially take a shot with draft development players only this season to help offset this cost.

Maybe the window is open just a crack this year, and he gambles on that by getting all three signed, with huge sums of their contracts absorbed through gigantic signing bonuses paid out in one season, playing essentially with only his drafted and current players.

That window may open far wider than ever next season, by being a good cap position, in a year where the cap increases. Front loading as much as he can this year and taking a flyer on the season, with no big FA expenditures, could work in our favor for years to come, and I wouldn't mind it if this is Ted's plan.

My own zeal to win now, and for Ted to load up in FA for a SB run this year may be seriously unrealistic for our future, especially considering what BAL had to do to make Flacco's deal work:

"In 2013, Flacco will get a fully-guaranteed $29 million signing bonus and a $1 million base salary. In 2014, he's due a $15 million option bonus (guaranteed for injury) and a $6 million base salary. In 2015, it's a $7 million option bonus (guaranteed for injury) and a $4 million base salary. In 2016, he will earn an $18.2 million base salary. In 2017, the base salary increases to $20.6 million, and in 2018, it's a $20 million base." http://www.nfl.com/news/...-includes-52m-guaranteed

Ted's task is essentially to build Mario Williams & Joe Flacco-type contracts into our scale, and that's just considering Rodgers and Matthews. I'm afraid loading up, after considering this more, may not be an option. Taking the hit now and saying we are just going to offload as much high dollar contracts as possible could actually give us a more opportunities in the future. That's all banking on Rodgers playing well at age 31, 32, 33, 34, 35...

So, yeah, maybe the window is closing this year.
QCHuskerFan  
#19 Posted : Friday, March 15, 2013 1:14:07 PM(UTC)
It is my understanding that Signing Bonuses are paid out in year one, but, for Cap purposes, are amortized over the length of the contract to keep this very thing from happening. I don't think it is possible to sign all 3 with big signing bonuses and put it all in this year, thus minimizing the Cap effect in years to come.

Flacco is being paid $30M in 2013 and yet his Cap hit is only $6.8M due to the $29M in Signing bonus being spread over all 6 years of the contract.
PackFanWithTwins  
#20 Posted : Friday, March 15, 2013 1:54:30 PM(UTC)
Ted does not seem like a big fan of signing bonuses. By keeping the cap in check over his time, he has been able to work the salaries so we are never in cap hell, so he has more flexibility to pay bigger base salaries and use roster bonuses which keeps us out of cap hell going forward. Go back and look at Rodgers last deal. Of the 66 million, less that 1.5 was signing bonus. Cap space of 08 was used for a big chunk, and a Roster bonus in 09. The rest just base salary mostly with small yearly roster bonus.

It is really what keeps the team in good shape. Our dead cap money is under 1 million I believe. He is very good at getting the right players paid, and protecting the team from prorated SB hits if a player doesn't pan out or gets injured.
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