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Zero2Cool  
#1 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 1:29:22 PM(UTC)
Here's what the head coach said during this years rookie camp...
Mike McCarthy said:
I went through the specifics of our roster, how many first-rounders are on our team. How many second-, third-rounders are on our team, the makeup. Fifty percent of our football team is sixth-, seventh-round draft picks and free agents.
wpr  
#2 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 2:30:39 PM(UTC)
This is what has upset me for a few years. Ted trades away higher picks for more lower ones. He says he is playing the odds. He just wants bodies on the team. Make the playoffs on a consistent basis and rake in the dough. I want to few stud players that are out there. Dominate the game and you will go far.

Certainly there are Donald Driver type players out there in the 7th round. But for every one DD there are 1000 guys who fail to compete.

Since DD GB has selected the following players in rounds 6 & 7:

1999 6 Dee Miller WR -
1999 6 Scott Curry T 1999
1999 7 Chris Akins DB 2000

2000 7 Mark Tauscher T 2010
2000 7 Ron Moore DT 2001
2000 7 Charles Lee WR 2005
2000 7 Eugene McCaslin LB 2000
2000 7 Rondell Mealey RB 2002

2001 6 David Martin TE 2011

2002 6 Mike Houghton G 2002

2003 6 Brennan Curtin T -
2003 7 Chris Johnson DB 2012
2003 7 DeAndrew Rubin WR -
2003 7 Carl Ford WR 2005
2003 7 Steve Josue LB 2004

2004 6 Corey Williams DT 2012
2004 7 Scott Wells G 2012

2005 6 Mike Montgomery DT 2010
2005 6 Craig Bragg WR -
2005 7 Kurt Campbell DB -
2005 7 Will Whitticker G 2005

2006 6 Johnny Jolly DT 2009
2006 7 Dave Tollefson DE 2012

2007 6 Korey Hall LB 2011
2007 6 Desmond Bishop LB 2012
2007 6 Mason Crosby K 2012
2007 7 DeShawn Wynn RB 2010
2007 7 Clark Harris TE 2012

2008 7 Matt Flynn QB 2012
2008 7 Brett Swain WR 2011

2009 6 Jarius Wynn DE 2012
2009 6 Brandon Underwood DB 2010
2009 7 Brad Jones LB 2012 0

2010 6 James Starks RB 2012
2010 7 C.J. Wilson DE 2012

2011 6 Caleb Schlauderaff OL 2012
2011 6 D.J. Smith LB 2012
2011 6 Ricky Elmore DL 2012
2011 7 Ryan Taylor TE 2012
2011 7 Lawrence Guy DT 2012
2012 7 Andrew Datko T 2012
2012 7 B.J. Coleman QB 2012

2013 6 Nate Palmer LB
2013 7 Charles Johnson WR
2013 7 Kevin Dorsey WR
2013 7 Sam Barrington LB

Very few of them stand out. For every Tauscher there are several Caleb Schlauderaff's.
nerdmann  
#3 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 2:47:13 PM(UTC)
Gee and I thought we lose, because of the shit suckage.

Two years ago, dropped passes.

This past year, rookie muffs punt in red zone.

I won't get into our overall offensive strategy.
greengold  
#4 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 3:21:28 PM(UTC)
There are plenty of 1st round busts too. And you are stuck paying them, they are pretty much taking up a roster spot on your team for 3 years. With the salary cap you can't afford to cut them.

If you are sitting late in the second round and the highest rated player still on your board has a third round grade, why not trade back a few slots, get him for less money, and get a bonus 6th or 7th rounder?

I see the 6th & 7th round draft picks as a way to lock up the UDFA you are high on but you are afraid he might sign elsewhere.



Zero2Cool  
#5 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 3:34:03 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
Gee and I thought we lose, because of the shit suckage.

Two years ago, dropped passes.

This past year, rookie muffs punt in red zone.

I won't get into our overall offensive strategy.


You really think the Packers could match the 49ers regardless of that punt turnover?
steveishere  
#6 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 4:06:09 PM(UTC)
It's been a whole 2 seasons since they won the Superbowl. That's not exactly failing. Sometimes shit just doesn't go your way. This is consistently one of the top teams in the league. That's really all you can ask for. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into winning the Superbowl than how many high round picks are on your team.
sschind  
#7 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 4:13:15 PM(UTC)
steveishere said: Go to Quoted Post
It's been a whole 2 seasons since they won the Superbowl. That's not exactly failing. Sometimes shit just doesn't go your way. This is consistently one of the top teams in the league. That's really all you can ask for. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into winning the Superbowl than how many high round picks are on your team.


Of the 12 teams that make the playoffs 11 of them fail each year (10 if you consider making the SB a success) . Does that mean half their team is made up of 6th rounder, 7th rounders and FAs as well.
Zero2Cool  
#8 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 4:21:45 PM(UTC)
sschind said: Go to Quoted Post
Of the 12 teams that make the playoffs 11 of them fail each year (10 if you consider making the SB a success) . Does that mean half their team is made up of 6th rounder, 7th rounders and FAs as well.


I'm gonna wait for someone to chime in with "Yes, big name free agent signings!"
go.pack.go.  
#9 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 5:09:35 PM(UTC)
This could be one of the stupidest things I've heard. How far you go in the playoffs has nothing to do with where your players are drafted. If you have the talent in the regular season to do good, then you obviously have the talent to do good in the playoffs. It's mindset and clutch-ness that takes you places in the playoffs. Which is not related at all to where you are drafted.
wpr  
#10 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 5:57:20 PM(UTC)
greengold said: Go to Quoted Post
There are plenty of 1st round busts too. And you are stuck paying them, they are pretty much taking up a roster spot on your team for 3 years. With the salary cap you can't afford to cut them.

If you are sitting late in the second round and the highest rated player still on your board has a third round grade, why not trade back a few slots, get him for less money, and get a bonus 6th or 7th rounder?

I see the 6th & 7th round draft picks as a way to lock up the UDFA you are high on but you are afraid he might sign elsewhere.





The percent of first and even 2nd round busts is a fraction of the number of 6th and 7th round picks that fail to make a significant contribution.
So is your argument really sign low round picks because when they fail they won't take up very much cap space?
greengold  
#11 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 6:16:46 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
The percent of first and even 2nd round busts is a fraction of the number of 6th and 7th round picks that fail to make a significant contribution.
So is your argument really sign low round picks because when they fail they won't take up very much cap space?


That's not what I'm saying at all. All I'm saying is that late round picks aren't as worthless as some make them out to be. And you get extra late round picks by trading back just a few spots in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rounds.

I'm not even sure what the original point was. I think someone was ragging on Ted Thompson for having so many late round picks. He has gone the opposite way before, traded away late picks to move up a few spots to grab an impact player. Isn't that how they got Clay Matthews III?


User is suspended until 4/29/2043 11:56:55 PM(UTC) texaspackerbacker  
#12 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 6:25:07 PM(UTC)
steveishere said: Go to Quoted Post
It's been a whole 2 seasons since they won the Superbowl. That's not exactly failing. Sometimes shit just doesn't go your way. This is consistently one of the top teams in the league. That's really all you can ask for. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into winning the Superbowl than how many high round picks are on your team.


When I read the thread title, this is the first thing that popped into my head also - that and the idea that there are a whole array of reasons for the playoff losses, not the least of which is other teams playing really really good - Kaepernick, etc. I would also suggest injuries have something to do with the way things have gone, although the Super Bowl win was the worst of all in that way.

If Thompson was a little bit more hung up on his tendency to trade down and add 6th and 7th round picks, I'd maybe be upset about it too, but he has occasionally traded up or traded down to other rounds, etc. On a case by case basis, it's hard to argue a pattern of badness. The decision apparently either was triggered by not having an obvious pick on the board at the time or having somebody give him a deal to good to refuse.

The better question maybe would be, is Thompson's percentage of hits v. misses in the 6th and 7th better or worse than the league in general. My gut feeling is better.

nerdmann  
#13 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 6:31:44 PM(UTC)
Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
You really think the Packers could match the 49ers regardless of that punt turnover?


The muffed punt was a backbreaker.

I do not fear the 49ers. Are they for real? I believe so. But so are we.
nerdmann  
#14 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 6:33:17 PM(UTC)
steveishere said: Go to Quoted Post
It's been a whole 2 seasons since they won the Superbowl. That's not exactly failing. Sometimes shit just doesn't go your way. This is consistently one of the top teams in the league. That's really all you can ask for. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into winning the Superbowl than how many high round picks are on your team.


Keep in mind also that we had some key injuries last year. 2013 is an odd numbered year, so with any luck the pattern will hold, and we'll stay relatively healthy.
OlHoss1884  
#15 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 6:41:42 PM(UTC)
Ultimately, most draft picks turn out to be "busts" as the average career is 3.5 years. The teams that draft the best will manage 3 or 4 picks per draft which turn into starters/regulars, which the Packers have done consistently for a decade. Compare that to their divisional opponents. Where someone is drafted can create different levels of expectations, but for all rookies it becomes a matter of whether they develop into quality NFL players. Sometimes that's a high round pick like A-Rod, sometimes it's a low round pick like Brady. Since there are a lot of factors (including injuries) that are beyond the team's control or beyond what the scouts can predict, any draft pick is a gamblee, to an extent, but the better teams will consistently make better picks and develop better players from their draft.
wpr  
#16 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 6:59:40 PM(UTC)
greengold said: Go to Quoted Post
That's not what I'm saying at all. All I'm saying is that late round picks aren't as worthless as some make them out to be. And you get extra late round picks by trading back just a few spots in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rounds.

I'm not even sure what the original point was. I think someone was ragging on Ted Thompson for having so many late round picks. He has gone the opposite way before, traded away late picks to move up a few spots to grab an impact player. Isn't that how they got Clay Matthews III?




see THAT is the point. Get rid of the more or less useless low round picks and spend them on quality higher round picks. You get so much more value with higher picks. You get what you pay for.
User is suspended until 4/29/2043 11:56:55 PM(UTC) texaspackerbacker  
#17 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 7:09:11 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
see THAT is the point. Get rid of the more or less useless low round picks and spend them on quality higher round picks. You get so much more value with higher picks. You get what you pay for.


yeah but ......... hahaha.

If you could count on ALWAYS getting a CMIII, your logic flies. But as was said early on in the thread, Ted Thompson figures the percentages lie with quantity. Who are we mere mortals to argue hahaha?
wpr  
#18 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 7:14:10 PM(UTC)
I did a quick check on Baltimore. The Super Bowl roster was only 37% 6th 7th round picks along with undrafted free agents. They also had 59% of the starting lineup that were 1st (7) or 2nd (6) round picks. GB had 6 firsts and 2 second or 36%. (That included Bulaga) If you add Benson, Sherrod and Perry they would have been 50%.

Someone else can check on SF. Point is the team who won the SB had better quality players across the board on their roster than GB did. Sure it is nice when an UDFA like Williams or Shields works hard and becomes the starting CB. But the Ed Reeds of the world have a better track record of success.
steveishere  
#19 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 7:15:21 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
see THAT is the point. Get rid of the more or less useless low round picks and spend them on quality higher round picks. You get so much more value with higher picks. You get what you pay for.


It doesn't work like that though. Ted Thompson isn't sitting there simply going "man I just want more picks even though there's some great players on the board, I'll just trade back anyways" If the players aren't there to get you cannot get them simple as that. Ted Thompson trusts the board and the scouts/evaluators. If the board says there's a bunch of guys of the same quality and no standout players then he's going to trade back and get one of those same quality players and add more chances late in the draft.

He's shown that if there's a significant player to trade up for he WILL do it so you cannot really claim he's avoiding that situation. You don't just trade up to get a player because "higher round picks have a better chance to work out" if your board doesn't say those players are worth it. On top of that each draft is different. Just because one year had a bunch of studs in the 2nd round doesn't mean the next year every 2nd rounder will be a stud ( they may all be a bust).
wpr  
#20 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 7:18:04 PM(UTC)
texaspackerbacker said: Go to Quoted Post
yeah but ......... hahaha.

If you could count on ALWAYS getting a CMIII, your logic flies. But as was said early on in the thread, Ted Thompson figures the percentages lie with quantity. Who are we mere mortals to argue hahaha?


You don't always get CM III. You just get a better chance of finding him in the higher rounds not in the 6th or 7th.
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