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User is suspended until 4/29/2043 11:56:55 PM(UTC) texaspackerbacker  
#21 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 7:27:00 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
You don't always get CM III. You just get a better chance of finding him in the higher rounds not in the 6th or 7th.


hahahahahahahaha how many CMIIIs do you want anyway? You wake up a few years later with a headache of how to keep them and still fit with the salary cap hahahahaha.

I tend to agree with you, but I can't fire Ted Thompson and hire you just yet. Wait for him to have 5 or 10 years of bad teams, then I'll back you all the way hahahahaha.

wpr  
#22 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 7:33:48 PM(UTC)
steveishere said: Go to Quoted Post
It doesn't work like that though. Ted Thompson isn't sitting there simply going "man I just want more picks even though there's some great players on the board, I'll just trade back anyways" If the players aren't there to get you cannot get them simple as that. Ted Thompson trusts the board and the scouts/evaluators. If the board says there's a bunch of guys of the same quality and no standout players then he's going to trade back and get one of those same quality players and add more chances late in the draft.

He's shown that if there's a significant player to trade up for he WILL do it so you cannot really claim he's avoiding that situation. You don't just trade up to get a player because "higher round picks have a better chance to work out" if your board doesn't say those players are worth it. On top of that each draft is different. Just because one year had a bunch of studs in the 2nd round doesn't mean the next year every 2nd rounder will be a stud ( they may all be a bust).


never did I say that Ted will always trade back. never did I say he avoids that situation. Obviously he has traded up several times. The point is he has traded back many more times than he has traded up.

You can't say that Ted "WILL do it" (trade up). He has done so so few times in his time as GM. No doubt the other franchises may have been asking for more than he was willing to give. As I said and then you said Ted puts more value on having 10 low level picks than on having 2-3 very higher picks. In his first couple of years when GB was in cap space hell. It made sense.

You are correct that every draft is different. I never said it wasn't. We only have to look at 2006 to see that when GB picked Hawk. He is not a bad player and fans would like him a whole lot better if GB got him in the 3rd round instead of #5 overall.

As for what the board says, you don't know what is on Ted's board. Some of the players that go in the early rounds are on his board. I never said he must trade up and give away every single low round draft pick every single year for me to be happy. I said Ted tends to go with lower picks more often than not. AND more often than not the lower round picks are not as good as the higher round picks.
If you want to be a winner put winners on the team. There are more winners in the higher rounds than in the lower ones.
wpr  
#23 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 7:36:52 PM(UTC)
texaspackerbacker said: Go to Quoted Post
hahahahahahahaha how many CMIIIs do you want anyway? You wake up a few years later with a headache of how to keep them and still fit with the salary cap hahahahaha.

I tend to agree with you, but I can't fire Ted Thompson and hire you just yet. Wait for him to have 5 or 10 years of bad teams, then I'll back you all the way hahahahaha.



OH MY!!! let's not stock the team with quality players. We may have to pay them money some day down the road in 3-4 years.

I don't want the job. "If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve."

To answer your question- I want 22 CM 3 type players.
wpr  
#24 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 7:40:49 PM(UTC)
To tie my rant back in to Zero's title- I want a team that wins in the playoffs not one that merely shows up and then goes home a week or two later. I guess some of you are happy with it. I am ok with you liking a form of mediocrity.
I measure success by championships.
User is suspended until 4/29/2043 11:56:55 PM(UTC) texaspackerbacker  
#25 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 7:56:24 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
To tie my rant back in to Zero's title- I want a team that wins in the playoffs not one that merely shows up and then goes home a week or two later. I guess some of you are happy with it. I am ok with you liking a form of mediocrity.
I measure success by championships.


What's that expression: "Don't let good be the enemy of great" or something like that ....... I empathize completely with your point of view, but I'm pretty damn happy with the type of "mediocrity" we have had also. Ted Thompson seems to be trying for a middle course - going for it all with a minimum risk of dropping off from the great place we already are. This might just be the year we really do have it ALL.

And my half serious point about too many CMIIIs was that you bump up against the salary cap if you have too many superstars to get re-signed.

steveishere  
#26 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2013 8:16:06 PM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
To tie my rant back in to Zero's title- I want a team that wins in the playoffs not one that merely shows up and then goes home a week or two later. I guess some of you are happy with it. I am ok with you liking a form of mediocrity.
I measure success by championships.


That's nice and all but every team but 2 goes home a week or two later every year. I guess the sooner you realize the team you like isn't going to be one of the 2 out of 32 teams that makes the big game every single year (no matter what team you like) the easier it will be for you. You are putting up unrealistic expectations. Obviously every fan want's their team to win the Superbowl every year, wanting that doesn't make you special but demanding that makes you irrational.
DakotaT  
#27 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 2:41:43 AM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
see THAT is the point. Get rid of the more or less useless low round picks and spend them on quality higher round picks. You get so much more value with higher picks. You get what you pay for.


Ted gave us a championship with the multiple draft pick system and you question it? Drafting in the late 20's in every round every year and still being a top team annually comes from having a very skilled GM. Maybe we should all just kiss his ass a little more instead of questioning his methods and pouting about more championships.

We had a GM that always thought we were 1 or 2 players away and that didn't pan out too well.
nerdmann  
#28 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 4:38:02 AM(UTC)
steveishere said: Go to Quoted Post
That's nice and all but every team but 2 goes home a week or two later every year. I guess the sooner you realize the team you like isn't going to be one of the 2 out of 32 teams that makes the big game every single year (no matter what team you like) the easier it will be for you. You are putting up unrealistic expectations. Obviously every fan want's their team to win the Superbowl every year, wanting that doesn't make you special but demanding that makes you irrational.


If we played above our abilities and still lost in the NFCC, that would be cool.

But when we are the superior team and we shit ourselves, it disgusts me.
wpr  
#29 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 5:39:39 AM(UTC)
texaspackerbacker said: Go to Quoted Post


And my half serious point about too many CMIIIs was that you bump up against the salary cap if you have too many superstars to get re-signed.



wouldn't THAT be a great problem to have? I would never worry about it. The answer is simple. Use them while you have them and then let a few or most walk when the time comes. No worries.

To everyone else- HA! You are getting WAY to worked up over this. Like Dakota mentioned we are only talking about a 1-2 maybe 3 player difference in the team and you are pummeling me for nothing.

I do not hate Ted. I think he has done a heck of a job. however we have been discussing in general. Let's get specific. Who feels that it would have been better to have Darius Butler, Derek Cox and Brandon Tate on the Packers instead of Clay? Oops Clay AND Jamon Meredith. Certainly Butler, Cox and Tate have had decent careers. For the most part. Nothing spectacular. But they line up and play week end and week out. Moving up in the draft gives you a better chance at a Pro Bowl caliber player than moving down in the draft. Not a one of you can disagree with that. Just look at the wiki drafts for the past 10 years. More All Pro and Pro Bowl players are taken in the early rounds than the later ones.

Since Ted does a great job of stocking the team the need to pluck a couple of studs from time to time in lue of 10 more guys who are just passing through is required.

As for the line about measuring success based on championships- is that not Mike Mc Carthy's quote? or a paraphrased version of it?
Pack93z  
#30 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 6:47:14 AM(UTC)
If we are going to "blame" the composition of the roster for our post season failure.. then we best remember it was those same type of players that netted us a ring in 2010.

We have talent up and down this roster.. talent is not the problem.

I still maintain.. I will continue to, point most of the blame of our post season failures on our imbalance in offensive play calling.. IE, failing to develop a running game to balance our offense and our team.
play2win  
#31 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 7:23:17 AM(UTC)
We lost the past two years mostly as a result of losing two very important players who have yet (pending this year's offseason additions) to be replaced: Nick Collins and Cullen Jenkins.

Two of the top players at their positions on D in the NFL. Equally adept pass rush and run stopping ability on the line, and Pro Bowl Safety range and play. Had we not lost both of these players, I think we would have repeated and won back to back SBs 2010 and 2011.

Our potent offense failed to compensate for our losses on D, compounding the situation with some unsuccessful game plans that forced this tired, undermanned D onto the field time and time again. We were so close, yet undermanned at a couple of important positions made very, very clear in some horrific losses throughout these past two seasons.

Add to this the loss to injury of other KEY players, either highly regarded starters or players acquired to replace key losses, and it is amazing how well we actually fared:

Bulaga
Sherrod
Perry
Bishop
Woodson
Jennings
Worthy
Finley
Neal

Some or all of these players missed significant time due to injury, or had their play/impact adversely affected in trying to come off of injury. Now, we get some of these players returning, and others added at key positions. I'm hopeful we can stay healthy, and turn this around.

Winning Championships is the true mark of success. It is time we won some more, and I think we will.
Porforis  
#32 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 7:47:06 AM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
2006 6 Johnny Jolly DT 2009
2006 7 Dave Tollefson DE 2012

2007 6 Korey Hall LB 2011
2007 6 Desmond Bishop LB 2012
2007 6 Mason Crosby K 2012

2007 7 DeShawn Wynn RB 2010
2007 7 Clark Harris TE 2012

2008 7 Matt Flynn QB 2012
2008 7 Brett Swain WR 2011

2009 6 Jarius Wynn DE 2012
2009 6 Brandon Underwood DB 2010
2009 7 Brad Jones LB 2012 0

2010 6 James Starks RB 2012
2010 7 C.J. Wilson DE 2012


2011 6 Caleb Schlauderaff OL 2012
2011 6 D.J. Smith LB 2012
2011 6 Ricky Elmore DL 2012
2011 7 Ryan Taylor TE 2012
2011 7 Lawrence Guy DT 2012

Very few of them stand out. For every Tauscher there are several Caleb Schlauderaff's.


Very different looking story if you don't include the ancient past. Let's look at the last 6 years (not including 2013 or 2012 since a single year in the leauge or zero years in the leauge isn't a great sample size).

How many teams do you see drafting 1-2 starting-quality players in the 6th and 7th round every year? Yes, in many cases we're trading away earlier-round picks for multiple late-round picks, but 2nd and 3rd rounders are hardly guaranteed talent.
wpr  
#33 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 8:07:39 AM(UTC)
Porforis said: Go to Quoted Post
Very different looking story if you don't include the ancient past. Let's look at the last 6 years (not including 2013 or 2012 since a single year in the leauge or zero years in the leauge isn't a great sample size).

How many teams do you see drafting 1-2 starting-quality players in the 6th and 7th round every year? Yes, in many cases we're trading away earlier-round picks for multiple late-round picks, but 2nd and 3rd rounders are hardly guaranteed talent.


You can't count Bishop, Smith and Jones. They all play the same position. They cut Smith because he can't cut it in their system. Jones was thrust into service due to injuries. Crosby is a kicker for pete sakes. most kickers are UDFA. There is no guarantee of Flynn starting and he did not start for GB so there was no benefit to GB expect as a backup. Wilson started but that was only because they had no other options. I think most people would not have their feels hurt if he were cut this year. There is not going to be any clamor for retiring his number or putting him in the the Packer Hall. (Yes I am being sarcastic and facetious.) That he started is actually a testimony to the need to selecting better quality players and letting the 6th round picks be reserves on the team.

Out of the 19 player only Jolly, Bishop and Starks were true starters and Starks is a question mark at best. 3 out of 19 is 16%. I am sure if you go back and look at the 2nd-4th round picks the number is much higher. Even using your number of 8 that is 42%. The odds of finding a starter in the other rounds is still a whole lot greater.

I have no problem with drafting in the lower rounds but the truth is these players tend to be 2nd and 3rd sting fill in players. Certainly the cream will rise to the top and a few players go on to have solid careers. If you want impact players that can change a game don't look for them in the bottom of the barrel. For the most part they are at the top. You get what you pay for. Teddy likes to bargain shop and he gets a bunch of players that are not ready for prime time players. You won't find Clay Matthews very often in the 7th round.
Zero2Cool  
#34 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 8:12:38 AM(UTC)
If the Packers traded their 1st rounder often to gain another 2nd and 3rd or 4th, I'd be okay with that type of deal. Packers recently (since Ted Thompson took over) seem to do really well between rounds 2 and 4.
Pack93z  
#35 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 8:17:03 AM(UTC)
Lets look at the NFL as a whole ... and really where players come from. Below.. they look at the "top 20" players from each draft.

After the first round.. I would say it is pretty balanced through the middle of each draft.. almost up to the 6th and 7th round.

So it really is just putting more bullets in the gun after the first round. For reference.. 50% of 2nd rounders are hits.. so if you only have a 50% chance of grabbing an impact player in the second round.. why not increase the odds like he did this year to slide back and add picks later that will in turn increase the impact of your second round pick?

Image source..

Second Round #'s Source..
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Pack93z  
#36 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 8:20:51 AM(UTC)
More fodder..


TheAtlantic said:
But the NFL (which continues its draft today) does seem *particularly* bad predicting future stars. A new football draft study from the Worcester Polytechnic Institute found there has historically been more value among second-round picks than first-rounders. "The analysis of the past 13 seasons shows that second-rounders provide 70 percent of the production of first-round picks but at just 40 percent of the salary," ESPN reported.

To add some anecdotal color, when you look at today's best football players, their draft positions are utterly random. Look at the best quarterbacks. Peyton Manning was a first overall pick, while Aaron Rodgers was a late first-rounder, Drew Brees was the 32nd pick, and Tom Brady was famously a 6th rounder. Or consider the best running backs. Adrian Peterson was the top-rated in his class, but Arian Foster ranked 24th, and breakout star Alfred Morris wasn't drafted until the 6th round.
wpr  
#37 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 8:40:24 AM(UTC)
Pack93z said: Go to Quoted Post
Lets look at the NFL as a whole ... and really where players come from. Below.. they look at the "top 20" players from each draft.

After the first round.. I would say it is pretty balanced through the middle of each draft.. almost up to the 6th and 7th round.

So it really is just putting more bullets in the gun after the first round. For reference.. 50% of 2nd rounders are hits.. so if you only have a 50% chance of grabbing an impact player in the second round.. why not increase the odds like he did this year to slide back and add picks later that will in turn increase the impact of your second round pick?

Image source..

Second Round #'s Source..


your chart proves my point. The 6th and 7th rounds are almost devoid of starters. As you mention I don't mind trading back from a low first round pick to getting a couple of 2nd round picks. But to trade back and get a 2nd round pick and get 3 6/7 round picks is a waste.

I also don't have a problem with rounds 3-5 either. There are more misses than hits but it is still a lot better than 6/7 rounds.
Pack93z  
#38 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 8:49:24 AM(UTC)
wpr said: Go to Quoted Post
your chart proves my point. The 6th and 7th rounds are almost devoid of starters. As you mention I don't mind trading back from a low first round pick to getting a couple of 2nd round picks. But to trade back and get a 2nd round pick and get 3 6/7 round picks is a waste.

I also don't have a problem with rounds 3-5 either. There are more misses than hits but it is still a lot better than 6/7 rounds.


But Ted didn't slide out of the 2nd round.. he just slide down. Grabbing extra picks.. so he got the best value he could from those picks.. he still picked a second round talent and grabbed extra ammo, some of which was used to move up in later rounds.

To me.. this draft this year.. had a ton of value in the middle of it.. there are some drafts that just don't look that way. Hell.. there are some drafts, 2005 comes to mind, in which the entire draft looks weak.

Personally, again, I don't think it is a talent issue up and down this roster.. I believe our philosophies got out of whack at times and it has had more impact than the question of where we acquired talent.

Yearly we see our roster cuts get snapped up elsewhere.. sometimes very quickly. Our scouting department yearly shines in my opinion.. our coaching, or to be more specific, individual coaching aspects is our core weakness which has prevented us from hoisting more than one Lombardi over Rodgers era.

Personally, less talking about becoming a more physical team and more doing MM. Start with busting our offensive line coach in the chops.. wait, maybe the whole line shift was a kick in the ass to Campen. Then MM... look in the freaking mirror and grow a set of running balls. lol.
wpr  
#39 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 9:03:23 AM(UTC)
Pack93z said: Go to Quoted Post
But Ted didn't slide out of the 2nd round.. he just slide down. Grabbing extra picks.. so he got the best value he could from those picks.. he still picked a second round talent and grabbed extra ammo, some of which was used to move up in later rounds.

To me.. this draft this year.. had a ton of value in the middle of it.. there are some drafts that just don't look that way. Hell.. there are some drafts, 2005 comes to mind, in which the entire draft looks weak.

Personally, again, I don't think it is a talent issue up and down this roster.. I believe our philosophies got out of whack at times and it has had more impact than the question of where we acquired talent.

Yearly we see our roster cuts get snapped up elsewhere.. sometimes very quickly. Our scouting department yearly shines in my opinion.. our coaching, or to be more specific, individual coaching aspects is our core weakness which has prevented us from hoisting more than one Lombardi over Rodgers era.

Personally, less talking about becoming a more physical team and more doing MM. Start with busting our offensive line coach in the chops.. wait, maybe the whole line shift was a kick in the ass to Campen. Then MM... look in the freaking mirror and grow a set of running balls. lol.


I was not speaking specifically about this year's draft. I was talking about Ted's overall draft persona is to move down. He usually ends up with a ton of 6/7 round picks. I am not saying he does a bad job. I am not saying they don't have a good scout system. Heck if you think about it there were "experts" who questioned whether or not CM3 would be a mid round draft pick and why move up to get him. They knew. They could do the same thing other times as well in other years. Either they choose not to or the other teams are asking too much to make it work. We don't know. One more thing. Before someone says I am saying this- They can't move up every single year. Sometimes they can move up and sometimes they can move down. Ted tends to move down a whole lot more than he moves up. He accumulates players who can't make this team and who are picked up elsewhere. Instead of getting 50 players who can't make the team I am saying get 3 who can make a huge difference. (EXAGGERATION PEOPLE)
warhawk  
#40 Posted : Friday, May 17, 2013 10:50:13 AM(UTC)
Unfortunately the math doesn't work when it comes to putting a good team together. No team can afford really good 1st thru 3rd round players to fill out a 53 man roster.
Nor can a GM pull off drafting that many low round picks anyhow. Let's say Ted finds a way to draft 4 players in the first three rounds over 5 years.

That's 20 players and no way they are all going to turn out to be quality core type starters. How could Ted ditch the last few rounds of the draft, load up on the first three or four rounds, pay the best players we have to keep them around, AND, stay under the cap?

I would rather draft and develop young players with potential than bring in 3r or 4th year guys that haven't shown enough potential to stick around with the team they were on. Fifty three players have to come from somewhere.







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