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Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#16 Posted : Saturday, June 8, 2013 10:17:37 PM(UTC)

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nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
Not all teams run the WCO. They may not be concerned about ToP.

I think the biggest correlation in winning is having good players. We have that. I'm not worrred about successfully completing high percentage plays.

What I don't like is 3 and outs, which result from not connecting on low percentage plays. A "quick strike" offense is great. But those long passing plays are low percentage. Granted, there is some favoritism there based upon the ridiculous DPI rules.

I'm not saying we can't win using Mike's system. I just don't think it's time tested, or proven at all.


Best offense in the league 2 years running.

In 5 years, Rodgers has the highest career rating, the highest single season rating and the second highest post season rating in the history of the NFL.

11-5, 10-6, 15-1 and 11-5.

I think the offense works.

The packers are pretty good at converting on 3rd down.
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steveishere on 6/9/2013(UTC), DoddPower on 6/9/2013(UTC)
Offline nerdmann  
#17 Posted : Saturday, June 8, 2013 10:35:37 PM(UTC)

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Dexter_Sinister said: Go to Quoted Post
Best offense in the league 2 years running.

In 5 years, Rodgers has the highest career rating, the highest single season rating and the second highest post season rating in the history of the NFL.

11-5, 10-6, 15-1 and 11-5.

I think the offense works.

The packers are pretty good at converting on 3rd down.


The Packers will be better at converting on third down this year, because they will not have to rely on Kuhn.

And I take it you're measuring the performance of the offense against statistics right? Because that is the main thing about which Mike and Aaron are concerned. So yeah, they have great stats.

Once again we got off to a shitty start by abandoning the running game and trying to sling it deep constantly.

Not saying it won't work either. But if it does, it's due more to Ted than Mike.
Offline steveishere  
#18 Posted : Sunday, June 9, 2013 2:16:17 AM(UTC)

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nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
Not all teams run the WCO. They may not be concerned about ToP.

I think the biggest correlation in winning is having good players. We have that. I'm not worrred about successfully completing high percentage plays.

What I don't like is 3 and outs, which result from not connecting on low percentage plays. A "quick strike" offense is great. But those long passing plays are low percentage. Granted, there is some favoritism there based upon the ridiculous DPI rules.

I'm not saying we can't win using Mike's system. I just don't think it's time tested, or proven at all.


The last 7 Superbowl winning teams threw long passing plays at a similar or higher percentage than the Packers have the last couple of years. I'd say as far as recent history is concerned that's pretty proven.
Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#19 Posted : Sunday, June 9, 2013 9:49:14 AM(UTC)

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nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
The Packers will be better at converting on third down this year, because they will not have to rely on Kuhn.

And I take it you're measuring the performance of the offense against statistics right? Because that is the main thing about which Mike and Aaron are concerned. So yeah, they have great stats.

Once again we got off to a shitty start by abandoning the running game and trying to sling it deep constantly.

Not saying it won't work either. But if it does, it's due more to Ted than Mike.


11-5, 10-6, 15-1 and 11-5.

I think the offense works.

They got off to a shitty start because they lost Benson and Saine while Starks was on PUP. Green was not ready to come back from knee reconstruction yet because his HGH dealer was sold out to APs Doc.

Even then they were average in number of rushing attempts.

After Harris showed up, they were top 5 in rushing attempts.

The assertion that they don't like to run the ball is a myth.

The only thing they needed to have a better running game was any healthy backs. Which they didn't really have.

thanks Post received 1 applause.
DoddPower on 6/9/2013(UTC)
Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#20 Posted : Sunday, June 9, 2013 9:55:33 AM(UTC)

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If having the highest passer rating differential means you have the best chance to win, you can bet your whiney ass that the teams that win the most are going to be concerned with that stat.

Put your effort into what gives you the best chance to win.

The stats themselves are not important. What they mean is.

There is an enormous difference. One that I think Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson understand. They are not concerned about putting up stats, they are concerned with doing the things that will increase the right stats.

Because if you do, your chances of winning go up.

It is completely different. If you think it is the same thing, you don't know what the stats mean.
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DoddPower on 6/9/2013(UTC)
Offline play2win  
#21 Posted : Sunday, June 9, 2013 10:44:57 AM(UTC)

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Well Dexter_Sinister, that sounds good, but let's put this into perspective. We didn't lose Benson until week 5 against the Colts. Our 3rd loss in 5 games.

""I feel like we underachieved, to be frank," said coach Mike McCarthy. "And it starts with me."

Some of the offensive linemen wondered what McCarthy was up to by throwing on his first seven calls of the second half. It got him an interception and a punt, giving the moribund Colts hope and probably creating doubt among his players.

Later, it was a 41-yard gain - yes, on a good, old-fashioned running play - by Alex Green that provided the Packers a brief 27-22 lead. Then a monumental cave-in by the defense enabled Andrew Luck to drive 80 yards for the winning touchdown.

"We're up 21-3 at halftime and we sort of changed our game plan in the second half and we couldn't do (expletive)," an obviously angry guard T.J. Lang said. "They knew all we were doing was throwing the ball so they were coming with everything they had."

The Colts, 2-14 a year ago, overwhelmed Rodgers, his blockers and McCarthy's scheme in the second half. The five sacks, their most in a game since Week 4 of 2009, were the result of Rodgers' indecision on two and Marshall Newhouse, Tom Crabtree and Jeff Saturday just getting beat on the three others.

Cedric Benson's departure (mid-foot sprain) on the fourth play of the second quarter hurt. So did the losses of B.J. Raji (ankle) a series later and Jermichael Finley (shoulder) early in the third quarter."http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/173026821.html

We lost our 1st game of the season FAILING in the rushing dept. Cedric Benson was the ONLY RB to receive ANY carries, a grand total of 9!!! Holy crap!

We lost our 3rd game of the season FAILING in the rushing dept. 19 measly carries between Benson, Cobb and Kuhn for the entire game. Oh, let's do look at the 1st half! Rodgers was sacked EIGHT TIMES!!! McCarthy ran Benson 2 times in the first half and Cobb once, the only running plays we called. THREE rushes!!! Compared to 23 pass plays by Rodgers.

That's where stats lie, 17 carries in the game by Benson, 15 of which came in the 2nd half after Rodgers had been freaking killed... what the hell was McCarthy thinking? How could he let that happen, with a healthy Benson to go to? Unbelievable.

I'm hopeful this changes with the addition of Lacy and Franklin this season, and that we never again have to revisit this massive failure to run the football.
thanks Post received 1 applause.
nerdmann on 6/9/2013(UTC)
Offline mi_keys  
#22 Posted : Sunday, June 9, 2013 11:17:52 AM(UTC)

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Dexter_Sinister said: Go to Quoted Post
i ran a correlation between winning % and TOP.


There isn't any. The graph looked like a shotgun pattern.


It is a complete myth. It only sounds logical. In reality, it has no effect.


Time of possession is not directly tied to points. If you hold the ball for 7 minutes and throw a pick 6, then hold the ball for 7 minutes and punt, to have it run back for a TD, you are up 14-0 on the clock and down 14-0 on the score board.

If you have long drawn out drives of 10 or more plays, there are more chances to screw up and give the ball away before you score.

If you have a quick strike offense, your opponent still has to score to keep up with you. If you score fast but every time you touch the ball, they have to do more than burn clock. They have to actually put up points.

It doesn't matter how long it takes you to score as long as you do.


Not surprised in the least. Another factor not taken into consideration on the time of possession stat is the time you are on offense while the clock is stopped. You constantly hear about your offense winning the time of possession battle giving your defense time to rest. Well, it's not like the defense can't rest during those 35 seconds the clock is stopped. Yet, that will never show up in the time of possession statistics.

Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#23 Posted : Sunday, June 9, 2013 12:43:39 PM(UTC)

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play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
Well Dexter_Sinister, that sounds good, but let's put this into perspective. We didn't lose Benson until week 5 against the Colts. Our 3rd loss in 5 games.

""I feel like we underachieved, to be frank," said coach Mike McCarthy. "And it starts with me."

Some of the offensive linemen wondered what McCarthy was up to by throwing on his first seven calls of the second half. It got him an interception and a punt, giving the moribund Colts hope and probably creating doubt among his players.

Later, it was a 41-yard gain - yes, on a good, old-fashioned running play - by Alex Green that provided the Packers a brief 27-22 lead. Then a monumental cave-in by the defense enabled Andrew Luck to drive 80 yards for the winning touchdown.

"We're up 21-3 at halftime and we sort of changed our game plan in the second half and we couldn't do (expletive)," an obviously angry guard T.J. Lang said. "They knew all we were doing was throwing the ball so they were coming with everything they had."

The Colts, 2-14 a year ago, overwhelmed Rodgers, his blockers and McCarthy's scheme in the second half. The five sacks, their most in a game since Week 4 of 2009, were the result of Rodgers' indecision on two and Marshall Newhouse, Tom Crabtree and Jeff Saturday just getting beat on the three others.

Cedric Benson's departure (mid-foot sprain) on the fourth play of the second quarter hurt. So did the losses of B.J. Raji (ankle) a series later and Jermichael Finley (shoulder) early in the third quarter."http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/173026821.html

We lost our 1st game of the season FAILING in the rushing dept. Cedric Benson was the ONLY RB to receive ANY carries, a grand total of 9!!! Holy crap!

We lost our 3rd game of the season FAILING in the rushing dept. 19 measly carries between Benson, Cobb and Kuhn for the entire game. Oh, let's do look at the 1st half! Rodgers was sacked EIGHT TIMES!!! McCarthy ran Benson 2 times in the first half and Cobb once, the only running plays we called. THREE rushes!!! Compared to 23 pass plays by Rodgers.

That's where stats lie, 17 carries in the game by Benson, 15 of which came in the 2nd half after Rodgers had been freaking killed... what the hell was McCarthy thinking? How could he let that happen, with a healthy Benson to go to? Unbelievable.

I'm hopeful this changes with the addition of Lacy and Franklin this season, and that we never again have to revisit this massive failure to run the football.


The Colts were a playoff team. 2-14 is is a misleading comment.

The 49ers (NFC Champs) were fairly good at stopping the run. Benson got all the carries because he was the only one we had left. Green wasn't ready, Saine was out, Starks was on PUP.

Seattle is also a fairly accomplished running D.

Benson was a dog. He has been a dog all his career. I said it when we got him and he proved me right. He has never been a productive runner.

With the addition of Harris, we became a top 5 team in attempts per game. They did start the year not running enough. But they ended it running a lot. Because that is what teams were giving us.

It amazes me that people still say that Mike McCarthy doesn't call enough running plays. The majority of plays are options in which Rodgers decides to run or throw based on what the D gives him.

Offline steveishere  
#24 Posted : Sunday, June 9, 2013 2:20:54 PM(UTC)

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MM didn't have any problem with running the ball when he had a reliable halfway decent RB in Ryan Grant for a few years. He didn't have any problem running the ball during the short stints that Starks and Dujuan Harris were healthy and productive. If you have Aaron Rodgers and the Packers WR group and Brandon Jackson, 30 year old Cedric Benson, John Kuhn, or an unproven inexperienced Alex Green coming off a knee blow out your best bet is probably going to be to lean heavy on the passing game.

Mike has called an efficient HIGHLY productive offense for 3 years with nothing at all to rely on as far as a running back and some of you have no appreciation at all for it. Some of you sound like some spoiled ass brats. You've got more than most of the rest of the entire NFL fanbase yet keep crying because everything isn't perfect Crying
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Dexter_Sinister on 6/9/2013(UTC), DoddPower on 6/9/2013(UTC)
Offline play2win  
#25 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 6:02:24 AM(UTC)

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You cannot win in this league rushing only 9 attempts for an entire game (vs. SF), or only 3 attempts in a half (vs. SEA).

Those comments after the IND game were from our own unnamed OL!
Offline steveishere  
#26 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 6:20:57 AM(UTC)

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play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
You cannot win in this league rushing only 9 attempts for an entire game (vs. SF), or only 3 attempts in a half (vs. SEA).

Those comments after the IND game were from our own unnamed OL!


You can win a Superbowl with 11 rushing attempts for an entire game I think. When you are only getting 2 yards a run you aren't going to win a game by running 20 times either.
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DoddPower on 6/10/2013(UTC)
Offline play2win  
#27 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 9:48:55 AM(UTC)

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steveishere said: Go to Quoted Post
You can win a Superbowl with 11 rushing attempts for an entire game I think. When you are only getting 2 yards a run you aren't going to win a game by running 20 times either.


Not sure what you are getting at. Yes, we won that SB with 11 carries by our RBs, mostly on Aaron's arm. Since that time, defenses have had us under the microscope and have played to stop that once vaunted passing attack. They've had more than two years of study on it, and we've all seen the results.

Add to that, we did win many games by rushing 20+ times for a couple of yards and a pile of dirt. Those rushes took the heat off of Rodgers and opened up our passing game, which is exactly my point.

Apparently, our own offensive line players felt differently than you about our first 5 games of last season. Funny, after the mismanagement of our running game became such an issue after that week 5 debacle in IND, we go down to HOU week 6 and pile in 29 rushes by our RBs and come away with a win, against a fierce HOU pass rush.

Regardless, we stopped running the ball for whatever reasons in 3 of our first 5 games last season and came away with losses in each of those 3 contests. We improved greatly from that point on by committing more to the run, even with subpar play by Jeff Saturday, and low ypc averages.

With the addition of Lacy and Franklin, and a retooling of our OL along with a renewed emphasis on the run, I see that scenario changing for the better in 2013, and hopefully, we get some of our backs stringing 100 yd games together. That will dramatically change our effectiveness on offense. Add to that what I anticipate will be an improved defense, and we should have a pretty successful season this year. While it is early, it looks like we're back in it as legit contenders for another Lombardi Trophy, and I hope we take it.

Keeping explosive players like Kaepernick off the field with some ball control by this Packers offense will go a long way towards our success.
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yooperfan on 6/10/2013(UTC)
Offline steveishere  
#28 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 10:40:29 AM(UTC)

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We've seen the results of what? The last 2 years we've still had one of the best offenses in the league despite not having any reliable or efficient running game.

Over half the runs against Houston came in the 4th quarter alone when the game was basically already over. That game was won off the back of the passing game.

We weren't going to beat the 49ers by pounding the running back for 2 yards a pop. What the team needs is not simply more runs it needs more efficient runs. There is a balance somewhere between running and passing yes but that balance is significantly skewed when you cannot run the ball efficiently. At some point passing the ball more is still better for the team than running for 0-2 yards. We've had nothing to rely on for 3 years as far as running backs. Hopefully this year is different and if it is I guarantee McCarthy will use it more (as he has in the past).
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Dexter_Sinister on 6/10/2013(UTC)
Offline nerdmann  
#29 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 11:52:57 AM(UTC)

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play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
Well Dexter_Sinister, that sounds good, but let's put this into perspective. We didn't lose Benson until week 5 against the Colts. Our 3rd loss in 5 games.

""I feel like we underachieved, to be frank," said coach Mike McCarthy. "And it starts with me."

Some of the offensive linemen wondered what McCarthy was up to by throwing on his first seven calls of the second half. It got him an interception and a punt, giving the moribund Colts hope and probably creating doubt among his players.

Later, it was a 41-yard gain - yes, on a good, old-fashioned running play - by Alex Green that provided the Packers a brief 27-22 lead. Then a monumental cave-in by the defense enabled Andrew Luck to drive 80 yards for the winning touchdown.

"We're up 21-3 at halftime and we sort of changed our game plan in the second half and we couldn't do (expletive)," an obviously angry guard T.J. Lang said. "They knew all we were doing was throwing the ball so they were coming with everything they had."

The Colts, 2-14 a year ago, overwhelmed Rodgers, his blockers and McCarthy's scheme in the second half. The five sacks, their most in a game since Week 4 of 2009, were the result of Rodgers' indecision on two and Marshall Newhouse, Tom Crabtree and Jeff Saturday just getting beat on the three others.

Cedric Benson's departure (mid-foot sprain) on the fourth play of the second quarter hurt. So did the losses of B.J. Raji (ankle) a series later and Jermichael Finley (shoulder) early in the third quarter."http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/173026821.html

We lost our 1st game of the season FAILING in the rushing dept. Cedric Benson was the ONLY RB to receive ANY carries, a grand total of 9!!! Holy crap!

We lost our 3rd game of the season FAILING in the rushing dept. 19 measly carries between Benson, Cobb and Kuhn for the entire game. Oh, let's do look at the 1st half! Rodgers was sacked EIGHT TIMES!!! McCarthy ran Benson 2 times in the first half and Cobb once, the only running plays we called. THREE rushes!!! Compared to 23 pass plays by Rodgers.

That's where stats lie, 17 carries in the game by Benson, 15 of which came in the 2nd half after Rodgers had been freaking killed... what the hell was McCarthy thinking? How could he let that happen, with a healthy Benson to go to? Unbelievable.

I'm hopeful this changes with the addition of Lacy and Franklin this season, and that we never again have to revisit this massive failure to run the football.


Let's look at the history of Mike's teams.

These teams always struggle early in the season. Even in the Superbowl year, they had to have that "come to Jesus" meeting. In '11 we went 15-1, but then again, they were airing it out that entire time, it's just that for the most part it was working. It doesn't always work that well.

It seems to me that Mike will be more prone to abandoning the run and stat whoring early in the season. That Seattle game should never even have been close.

And let's talk about that game. IF, we had put Seattle away instead of letting them tee of and not even pretend to guard the run, we win that game. AND, we get a playoff bye. We get a week's rest before we face the Niners. That's a HUGE difference.

But it just seems to me that this team struggles early in the season, every year. And it usually revolves around neglecting the run game. Mike will try to start playing for real in the playoffs, but in a situation like last year, the damage has already been done.

Offline DoddPower  
#30 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 12:44:32 PM(UTC)

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nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
Let's look at the history of Mike's teams.

These teams always struggle early in the season. Even in the Superbowl year, they had to have that "come to Jesus" meeting. In '11 we went 15-1, but then again, they were airing it out that entire time, it's just that for the most part it was working. It doesn't always work that well.

It seems to me that Mike will be more prone to abandoning the run and stat whoring early in the season. That Seattle game should never even have been close.

And let's talk about that game. IF, we had put Seattle away instead of letting them tee of and not even pretend to guard the run, we win that game. AND, we get a playoff bye. We get a week's rest before we face the Niners. That's a HUGE difference.

But it just seems to me that this team struggles early in the season, every year. And it usually revolves around neglecting the run game. Mike will try to start playing for real in the playoffs, but in a situation like last year, the damage has already been done.



Kind of how the bye-week made such a difference the year before against the Giants? I don't see any way in which the Packers would have beaten the 49'ers last year. They were simply the better team, whether the Packers had another week of rest or not.

Regardless, I, and most others, would love to see more production out of the run game. Mike McCarthy gets away from it during critical moments at times, but I can sort of understand given the talent the the position he has been working with and Aaron Rodgers as QB. Now that he will hopefully have a decent backfield, I look forward to and expect him to be a more discipline play-caller.
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