Green Bay Packers Forum

Welcome to your Green Bay Packers Online Community!

Since 2006, PackersHome has been providing a unique experience for fans.
Your participation is greatly anticipated!
Login or Register.
9 Pages«<23456>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline OlHoss1884  
#31 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 2:58:10 PM(UTC)
Rank: Member

United States
Joined: 5/8/2013(UTC)
Location: Waukegan, IL
Applause Given: 91
Applause Received: 245
Dexter_Sinister said: Go to Quoted Post
This is a complete myth.

Favre's success rating in comeback opportunities was well below average.

Average would be between 40 and 50%. Favre was actually in the low 30s.

He more than made up for his comebacks with his record number of chokes.


The myth is that you find statistical significance in that. How far behind? What kind of comebacks? What kind of defensive effort? The factis that for most of his career he had a mediocre supporting cast at best, and when it was good, they were a Super Bowl team. My statement stands...as a single player he had as much or more impact on his team's ability to win a game than anyone during his era and I include Elway and Marino in that statement.

I am by no means in the Favre camp with the piss poor childish way he handled his exit from GB, but neither am I a basher of his skills because I dislike his maturity. Te question becomes how many more games were won or lost BECAUSE he was the QB instead of someone of average ability? No doubt some embarrassing losses, but many more amazing wins. And I guarantee you Mike Holmgren would tell you the same thing.

thanks Post received 1 applause.
texaspackerbacker on 6/21/2013(UTC)
User is suspended until 4/29/2043 11:56:55 PM(UTC) texaspackerbacker  
#32 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 3:28:12 PM(UTC)
Rank: Veteran Member

Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Gold: 2014Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Silver: 2015

United States
Joined: 3/4/2013(UTC)
Location: Texas
Applause Given: 670
Applause Received: 489
Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
I don't think anyone is minimizing how good of a player Brett Favre was. Rather, more so just saying he was good, but he also played more games than most and threw more than most, which is an efficient way to get "all time total" records.

Being extremely durable doesn't mean you were the greatest quarterback in the NFL. It means you were extremely durable and for that, the Packers were immensely lucky.

One gripe against Brett Favre is the post season play. Gun slinging is exciting, but it's not how you should play "win or go home" games and we fans know exactly why.


I thought you basically read EVERY post in every thread, Z2C. There's a WHOLE LOT of minimizin' goin' on hahahaha. All it takes is the words "Brett Favre", and every damn troll and shithead that ever posted piles on with the idiocy.

Duh, he played more games in order to set his records for yardage and touchdowns. That is a large part of what makes him the GREATEST QB/THE GREATEST PLAYER in NFL history.

To the guy who said Bart Starr, Tom Brady, and Joe Montana were "better QBs", did I not say, Favre probably wasn't the "best" player - Aaron Rodgers is better right now than Favre was at his best. However, NOBODY ever had a career like Favre - NOBODY. To illustrate the point, Walter Payton and Emmett Smith were undoubtedly the Greatest RBs of all time, but Gayle Sayers and O.J. Simpson were Better RBs. Durability and Longevity have A LOT to do with it.

Offline DoddPower  
#33 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 3:32:50 PM(UTC)
Rank: Veteran Member

FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Gold: 2011FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Bronze: 2015

United States
Joined: 9/24/2007(UTC)
Location: Visalia, CA
Applause Given: 3,122
Applause Received: 839
OlHoss1884 said: Go to Quoted Post
The myth is that you find statistical significance in that. How far behind? What kind of comebacks? What kind of defensive effort? The factis that for most of his career he had a mediocre supporting cast at best, and when it was good, they were a Super Bowl team. My statement stands...as a single player he had as much or more impact on his team's ability to win a game than anyone during his era and I include Elway and Marino in that statement.

I am by no means in the Favre camp with the piss poor childish way he handled his exit from GB, but neither am I a basher of his skills because I dislike his maturity. Te question becomes how many more games were won or lost BECAUSE he was the QB instead of someone of average ability? No doubt some embarrassing losses, but many more amazing wins. And I guarantee you Mike Holmgren would tell you the same thing.



To be fair though, that's the way the "4th quarter comeback" stats are, and they are the same for all the players. They don't account for other things. They can't. It would be impossible to consider all the factors of each game and every situation. Statistics in sports and in life are way over rated, and there are many cliche's about that. Such as "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." We used to joke when I was in academia that you could ask three different statisticians the same questions and get at least 5 different answers based on the data. However, some type of metric is evaluated and applied to all QB's. I personally think 4th quarter comebacks is one of the most over rated and useless metrics that exists in the NFL, but it is what it is.

thanks Post received 1 applause.
porky88 on 6/21/2013(UTC)
Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#34 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 4:32:18 PM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

Joined: 6/12/2010(UTC)
Applause Given: 292
Applause Received: 266
OlHoss1884 said: Go to Quoted Post
The myth is that you find statistical significance in that. How far behind? What kind of comebacks? What kind of defensive effort? The factis that for most of his career he had a mediocre supporting cast at best, and when it was good, they were a Super Bowl team. My statement stands...as a single player he had as much or more impact on his team's ability to win a game than anyone during his era and I include Elway and Marino in that statement.

I am by no means in the Favre camp with the piss poor childish way he handled his exit from GB, but neither am I a basher of his skills because I dislike his maturity. Te question becomes how many more games were won or lost BECAUSE he was the QB instead of someone of average ability? No doubt some embarrassing losses, but many more amazing wins. And I guarantee you Mike Holmgren would tell you the same thing.



You started with at the end of the game with the ball in his hands, Favre won the game WAY more often than he lost it.

Prove it.

No hype, no opinion, no anecdotal evidence. Just proof.

Stats don't agree with you and it is the stats that are wrong is a not a defense.

Marino was a great QB. Elway is as hyped as and just as over rated. Maybe even more than Favre.

Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#35 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 4:45:29 PM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

Joined: 6/12/2010(UTC)
Applause Given: 292
Applause Received: 266
doddpower said: Go to Quoted Post
To be fair though, that's the way the "4th quarter comeback" stats are, and they are the same for all the players. They don't account for other things. They can't. It would be impossible to consider all the factors of each game and every situation. Statistics in sports and in life are way over rated, and there are many cliche's about that. Such as "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." We used to joke when I was in academia that you could ask three different statisticians the same questions and get at least 5 different answers based on the data. However, some type of metric is evaluated and applied to all QB's. I personally think 4th quarter comebacks is one of the most over rated and useless metrics that exists in the NFL, but it is what it is.



It isn't what the stats say. It is what they mean.

That is why good actuaries make $250K a year and statisticians are academics.

I agree that 4th quarter comebacks is worse than useless as a stat. Specially without a ratio.

The best example is the over rated mediocre Eli Manning.

He had an amazing 6 comeback wins in 2011. Unfortunately, that is a bad thing.

They had a 9-7 record that year. They were playing from behind 13 times and lost 6. So they won less than 50% of the time. Which is about average. They were just so bad, they kept losing the lead in the 4th quarter so many times that being average at comebacks gave them 6 in one year.
Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#36 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 4:52:47 PM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

Joined: 6/12/2010(UTC)
Applause Given: 292
Applause Received: 266
texaspackerbacker said: Go to Quoted Post
I thought you basically read EVERY post in every thread, Z2C. There's a WHOLE LOT of minimizin' goin' on hahahaha. All it takes is the words "Brett Favre", and every damn troll and shithead that ever posted piles on with the idiocy.

Duh, he played more games in order to set his records for yardage and touchdowns. That is a large part of what makes him the GREATEST QB/THE GREATEST PLAYER in NFL history.

To the guy who said Bart Starr, Tom Brady, and Joe Montana were "better QBs", did I not say, Favre probably wasn't the "best" player - Aaron Rodgers is better right now than Favre was at his best. However, NOBODY ever had a career like Favre - NOBODY. To illustrate the point, Walter Payton and Emmett Smith were undoubtedly the Greatest RBs of all time, but Gayle Sayers and O.J. Simpson were Better RBs. Durability and Longevity have A LOT to do with it.



Emmitt was the 250th best back all time.

He played much longer than he should have just to get a record.

He had the best O-line in football. He ran into the line and fell down for a 4.2 YPC average. Exactly like Ryan Grant.

Being average longer than anyone else doesn't make them great.

Barry Sanders and Jim Brown were the greatest. Bo Jackson and Terrell Davis would have been if they had more than a couple years.
Offline DoddPower  
#37 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 6:34:35 PM(UTC)
Rank: Veteran Member

FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Gold: 2011FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Bronze: 2015

United States
Joined: 9/24/2007(UTC)
Location: Visalia, CA
Applause Given: 3,122
Applause Received: 839
Dexter_Sinister said: Go to Quoted Post
It isn't what the stats say. It is what they mean.

That is why good actuaries make $250K a year and statisticians are academics.


That's a matter of semantics. Whether you want to state what statistics "say" or "mean," it's the same difference to me. The point is that statistics almost never tell the entire picture. They are a tool for those that are educated with background knowledge of the situation and have empirical experience to make inferences based on observed probability. Most of the time, pointing to raw numbers as absolute proof of anything is reaching unless the same numbers have been found in controlled randomly assigned situations many times by many independent entities. Even then, the "facts" may not hold up if a single minor component is changed among endless random variability and biases. Beyond that, it's just taking numbers and trying to fit them into a narrative or an opinion. Sure, the inferences made MAY be right sometimes, but they're very likely to be incredibly wrong many times, as well.

As I said, statistics and numbers are just an inference tool, but in the case of the NFL, very rarely, if ever, do they "prove" anything at all, imo.
Offline porky88  
#38 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 7:30:06 PM(UTC)
Rank: Veteran Member

FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Gold: 2012Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Silver: 2013Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Silver: 2014PackersHome NFL Pick'em - Silver: 2015

Joined: 4/26/2007(UTC)
Applause Given: 250
Applause Received: 505
Dexter_Sinister said: Go to Quoted Post
Did you miss the part when I said "for his day he was farther above average than Favre was for his"?

Comparing players from different eras is impossible. So I wouldn't do it.

No helmets, no rules against hitting WRs because the were not WRs, they were offensive ends. They had all the protection of a blocker.

QBs had no protection either. Brady would leave the game in a body bag his first snap.

The players of that era had the same handicaps as the ones they were playing against.

You can't even accurately compare Players from the '60 to today. Even Marino played in an era when the average passer rating was 12.5 points lower than it was for Favre. Comparing them head to head gives Favre a huge advantage for when he played.

To sum up, I am saying that Herber was farther above the standard for his day than Favre was for the '1992-2101 seasons. Relative to when he played, Herber was better.

Otherwise, if you compare Favre head to head with any great QB that played in the past, Staubach, Unitas, Montana, Graham, Luckman, Baugh etc, he looks like he was better. But all those other QBs were so much farther above the standard than Favre, he just doesn't compare. Because the rules protected Favre and his WRs, the medical care kept him playing, the equipment protected him, the game itself is different.

I understand your premise. Herber was a better quarterback for his era than Favre was in his era. That’s a comparison, though. You may not mean to compare the two, but that’s doing it. It’s a flawed way of judging players, too. You’re clearly referencing some form of higher knowledge of stats. Regardless, your stats cannot account for every single variable. For example, it‘s easier to dominate in an average league than to dominate in a greater league. In addition, you seem to have views of your own. We all have our opinions, but stats should always be objective. I’m not sure that’s the case here.

Quote:
The only super bowl we won was when the D and ST made sure Favre wasn't needed in the 4th quarter. All he had to do was not choke.

I’ve actually heard this argument a lot since ‘09. It’s a nitpick if there ever was one. So the ’96 team was so dominating that they didn’t need Favre in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl. Never mind the fact that Favre was a big reason why they were winning in the 4th quarter.

All he did was account for three touchdowns, including two perfect throws to Andre Rison and Antonio Freeman. Other than that, you know, he didn’t do much of anything.

I do believe many people, including myself, share your frustration with the Favre apologists. However, there’s also the other side of the spectrum. The NFL Network segment and Herber > Favre represent that side, in my opinion.
thanks Post received 1 applause.
DoddPower on 6/21/2013(UTC)
User is suspended until 4/29/2043 11:56:55 PM(UTC) texaspackerbacker  
#39 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 7:52:21 PM(UTC)
Rank: Veteran Member

Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Gold: 2014Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Silver: 2015

United States
Joined: 3/4/2013(UTC)
Location: Texas
Applause Given: 670
Applause Received: 489
Dexter_Sinister said: Go to Quoted Post
Emmitt was the 250th best back all time.

He played much longer than he should have just to get a record.

He had the best O-line in football. He ran into the line and fell down for a 4.2 YPC average. Exactly like Ryan Grant.

Being average longer than anyone else doesn't make them great.

Barry Sanders and Jim Brown were the greatest. Bo Jackson and Terrell Davis would have been if they had more than a couple years.


Do you have a clue about the difference between "best" and "greatest"? Do you have a clue about ANYTHING?

Offline Dexter_Sinister  
#40 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 9:02:40 PM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

Joined: 6/12/2010(UTC)
Applause Given: 292
Applause Received: 266
doddpower said: Go to Quoted Post
That's a matter of semantics. Whether you want to state what statistics "say" or "mean," it's the same difference to me. The point is that statistics almost never tell the entire picture. They are a tool for those that are educated with background knowledge of the situation and have empirical experience to make inferences based on observed probability. Most of the time, pointing to raw numbers as absolute proof of anything is reaching unless the same numbers have been found in controlled randomly assigned situations many times by many independent entities. Even then, the "facts" may not hold up if a single minor component is changed among endless random variability and biases. Beyond that, it's just taking numbers and trying to fit them into a narrative or an opinion. Sure, the inferences made MAY be right sometimes, but they're very likely to be incredibly wrong many times, as well.

As I said, statistics and numbers are just an inference tool, but in the case of the NFL, very rarely, if ever, do they "prove" anything at all, imo.


If you don't know what stats mean, you wouldn't know the difference.

There is a huge difference to me.

For example, a QB throws for 400 passing yards in a game. That says lots of passing yards. You would think that means the team that put up those yards was great.

What does that really mean?

It means they were either in a shoot out and have a 50% chance to win or were getting blown out and had no chance to win. Teams putting up 400+ yards a game actually lose about 75% of the time.

If you run a correlation of passing yards to wins, on a scale of 0-100, with 100 being a direct 1 to 1 correlation, passing yards would be a negative 1.4, or essentially no correlation.

That is the difference between knowing what they say and what the mean.

So would you say a QB throwing for 5000 yards in a season was great? I wouldn't.

I would look for a stat that correlated to wins. Like Passer rating. Which was about a 90 correlation.

A stat that when you are leading, you are winning.

Now the stat itself isn't important. But doing the things that increase your passer rating have a direct impact on wins. Throw lots of TDs, don't turn the ball over, get few incompletions and get a lot of yards per attempt. So that means an efficient QB is going to win more games than one who throws for a lot of yards.

Which is why ratios mean so much. Comebacks don't mean anything without a per attempt.

6 comebacks says a lot but means little until you find out that it was out of 13 tries.

34 career comebacks sounds like a lot until you find out that it was out of 100 attempts. More than twice as many attempts as the next guy with 38 comebacks.

Was he really good at comebacks? Or did he make up for sucking by sheer volume?
Rss Feed 
Users browsing this topic
Guest
9 Pages«<23456>»
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Notification

Icon
Error


Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (15h): Packers annual shareholders meeting will be held on July 21 at 11 a.m.
Zero2Cool (2-May): Packers decline option on former first-round pick Datone Jones
Zero2Cool (2-May): For the public
Zero2Cool (2-May): OTA practices: May 24, June 2 and June 6
Smokey (1-May): Pecan Waffles !
gbguy20 (30-Apr): i like waffles
Mucky Tundra (30-Apr): mmm Waffles
IronMan (30-Apr): seriously. Waffle House
IronMan (30-Apr): Waffle House!
Mucky Tundra (29-Apr): In unrelated news, a six figure sum was wired to Dr James Andrews bank account in the Cayman Islands
Zero2Cool (29-Apr): Dr. James Andrews, who examined Myles Jack in December, told the UCLA LB today that he does not need micro-fracture surgery.
wpr (29-Apr): 64321 is still available
Mucky Tundra (29-Apr): thanks wpr, now i have to change it :(
wpr (29-Apr): Right. Mucky is 12346. Big difference.
Mucky Tundra (29-Apr): because i'm smarter than he is ;)
Zero2Cool (29-Apr): 12345 didn't fare well for Tunsil, what makes you think it will for you?
Mucky Tundra (29-Apr): I don't want to reset my password
Zero2Cool (29-Apr): First round is over. Reset your passwords.
Zero2Cool (29-Apr): Thompson on Clark: We thought he was the best player available.
IronMan (28-Apr): Brady won his appeal. no suspension.
Yerko (28-Apr): Happy Draft Day everyone!
Pack93z (28-Apr): Buckeye players that is... speaking of that, anyone see Buckeye around?
Pack93z (28-Apr): You certainly can have enough Buckeyes.... and 1 is probably too many. lol.
Zero2Cool (27-Apr): draft chat party tomorrow boys/girls welcome come all
wpr (27-Apr): Hawk is a FA
IronMan (27-Apr): AJ Hawk is still in the NFL?
FLORIDA PACKER88 (27-Apr): You can Never have Enough Buckeyes! Lets sign Lil animal Laurinitis and Hawk and put em both in the middle! ;)
wpr (26-Apr): 48 hrs until Christmas!
Zero2Cool (26-Apr): We have one too many Buckeye on the team already!!
Porforis (26-Apr): AJ Hawk released. Lol if the packers picked him up, would make for some spirited debate
Zero2Cool (25-Apr): Tom Brady re-suspended for four games. Boring.
Zero2Cool (25-Apr): and next year it'll take 24 seconds to do 2017 ;-)
Zero2Cool (25-Apr): 2016 NFL Pick'em schedule ... done!
IronMan (25-Apr): ball for 14 seconds and doesn't even get a shot off. lol
IronMan (25-Apr): So the Hawks call a TO with 15 seconds left, the coach scribbles some play down on the board. They inbound it to Teague and he holds the bal
Please sign in to use Fan Shout

Current Headlines

2016 Opponents
Sunday, Sep 11 @ 12:00 PM
at Jaguars
Sunday, Sep 18 @ 7:30 PM
at Vikings
Sunday, Sep 25 @ 12:00 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Oct 2 @ 12:00 AM
BYE
Sunday, Oct 9 @ 7:30 PM
GIANTS
Sunday, Oct 16 @ 3:25 PM
COWBOYS
Thursday, Oct 20 @ 7:25 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Oct 30 @ 12:00 PM
at Falcons
Sunday, Nov 6 @ 3:25 PM
COLTS
Sunday, Nov 13 @ 12:00 PM
at Titans
Sunday, Nov 20 @ 7:30 PM
at Redskins
Monday, Nov 28 @ 7:30 PM
at Eagles
Sunday, Dec 4 @ 12:00 PM
TEXANS
Sunday, Dec 11 @ 3:25 PM
SEAHAWKS
Sunday, Dec 18 @ 12:00 PM
at Bears
Saturday, Dec 24 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Jan 1 @ 12:00 PM
at Lions

Think About It
Think About It

Recent Topics
1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / steveishere

1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / rabidgopher04

3h / Green Bay Packers Talk / TheKanataThrilla

8h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Dulak

8h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

9h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Wade

10h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

10h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

15h / Green Bay Packers Talk / DarkaneRules

2-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / sschind

2-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / Yerko

1-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / musccy

1-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / musccy

1-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / musccy

30-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / DarkaneRules


Tweeter