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Offline IronMan  
#21 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 1:30:27 AM(UTC)
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Offline Nonstopdrivel  
#22 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 7:13:08 PM(UTC)
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Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#23 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 8:05:30 PM(UTC)
Rank: Premier Member

Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Gold: 2015Yahoo! Fantasy Football - Gold: 2009FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Silver: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Silver: 2011FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Bronze: 2016ESPN NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2013

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Wow, nearly 20 ... keep'em coming ... pussies. :)
Offline TheEngineer  
#24 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 12:11:19 AM(UTC)
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Joined: 8/8/2008(UTC)
" said: Go to Quoted Post
Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.


That's because the left column is the favourites and the right is the underdogs!
Offline djcubez  
#25 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 1:23:12 AM(UTC)
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" said: Go to Quoted Post
" said: Go to Quoted Post
Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.


That's because the left column is the favourites and the right is the underdogs!

Yea, no reason for underdog picks in the first week, nobody really knows what's up.
Offline Nonstopdrivel  
#26 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 1:52:20 AM(UTC)
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Last year I read an article (it might have been Gregg Easterbrook's "Tuesday Morning Quarterback" -- I can't remember) in which it was stated that over the course of the entire season, the following simple system has beaten the picks of virtually every pundit out there. For every game:

1) Pick the team with the better record.

2) In case of a tie, pick the home team.

Sounds oversimplified, and it is, but the beauty of it is it plays the odds, doesn't overthink the nuances, and doesn't jump on bandwagons.

Obviously, this isn't an optimal strategy for week 1, when you have no prior information, but its success improves dramatically as the season progresses.

If I remember correctly, no pundit in the past few years has exceeded a 70% correct pick rate, and I don't think many get above 60%. Some of the most famous score an abysmal 25% or less! The strategy above is rarely beat by more than one nationally known pundit.
Offline Nonstopdrivel  
#27 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 1:47:46 AM(UTC)
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So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?
Offline djcubez  
#28 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 5:49:49 AM(UTC)
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" said: Go to Quoted Post
So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?

My roommate is in a $50 pool every week with his family and he got it this week with his Denver over Cincinatti pick. I was actually close to picking San Francisco over Arizona just because I thought Mike Singletary is really changing the culture over there. I didn't do it though :/
Offline Rockmolder  
#29 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 6:41:18 AM(UTC)
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" said: Go to Quoted Post
So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?


I went Cinci over Denver. So did the Ninja and beingBOILEDhurts (Forgot who you are).

The one pick that everyone got wrong was, like you said, 49ers over Arizona. Shouldn't have taken that gamble on Miami, though. They got their ass handed to them by the Falcons.

Don't know if you found it, but you can see everyone's previous picks here.

http://football.fantasys.../22111/grouppicks?week=1
Offline Zero2Cool  
#30 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 9:50:06 AM(UTC)
Rank: Premier Member

Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Gold: 2015Yahoo! Fantasy Football - Gold: 2009FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Silver: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Silver: 2011FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Bronze: 2016ESPN NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2013

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DOMINATION!!
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Zero2Cool (14m) : Chmura: "I'll tell you this: Atlanta's going to score 40 points. They are. The #Packers are going to have to score 41."
Zero2Cool (5h) : Damn-Falcons coach Dan Quinn tells reporters that WR Julio Jones (foot) will be limited this week but will be “ready to rock” on Sunday.
Zero2Cool (5h) : Packers defense has a red zone INT in each of the last 3 games... Hyde with two of them. (One being the clutch 4thQ INT vs DET in Week 17)
Zero2Cool (6h) : Randall Cobb, Damarious Randall, Quentin Rollins, James Starks, Clay Matthews, Ty Montgomery & Jared Cook. OUT
Zero2Cool (6h) : Packers inactive list when they lost 33-32 to the Falcons week 8.
Zero2Cool (7h) : There is no emphasis, it's just a little bit of info. Take it or leave it. No harm.
Smokey (7h) : Zero, I believe that you and some others place too much emphasis upon data. no harm intended.
Zero2Cool (8h) : It’s the 1st time since 1970 all 4 conference championship teams finished the regular season on winning streaks of 4+ games
TheKanataThrilla (8h) : Salt mine. Love it.
TheKanataThrilla (8h) : The refs kept that game close. We should have blown them out early.
DarkaneRules (8h) : Hyde and Gunter are special and I'm hopeful D Ran gets back to where he can be
mi_keys (8h) : That whole forum is a salt mine. It's beautiful.
Zero2Cool (8h) : Burnett's back up, Kentrell Brice lead team in tackles.
uffda udfa (13h) : Hilarious reading below. I like Carter. Only guy who gets it.
uffda udfa (13h) : http://boards.dallascowboys.com/topic/71647-so-we-are-supposed-to-believe/#entry3978081
uffda udfa (14h) : Great news.
Zero2Cool (18h) : Jordy has "legitimate hope" to play, per @RobDemovsky.
Zero2Cool (18h) : Packers had one call on defense if called, no issue, wans't called. I didn't watch OL so dunno. I watched WR's
Zero2Cool (18h) : Dallas OL had some holds weren't called and 2 defensive holds, not called.
uffda udfa (18h) : I think the Pi vs just a holding call is a legit complaint. Terrible call.
GoPack1984 (18h) : Dallas can't complain about the officials. They got away with so many defensive holding calls.
uffda udfa (18h) : Dallas radio postgame: Dallas wins 7 out of 10 times.
uffda udfa (19h) : Brice led Pack w/ 6 tackles including the hardest of the game.
uffda udfa (19h) : Post game show said same thing. Everyone wondering how it didn't stay left.
Zero2Cool (19h) : Tornado warning forces players, fans to stay put at AT&T Stadium
Zero2Cool (19h) : Skip:More I see winning FG, more I see a very weird thing: It hooked hard left, then straightened out. Obviously no wind. Like meant to be
Zero2Cool (19h) : @RealSkipBayless: More I see winning FG, more I see a very weird thing: It hooked hard left, then straightened out. Obviously no wind. Like
uffda udfa (19h) : I don't believe Dallas is better than us. When Aaron is on we're the best.
beast (19h) : The huddle penalty was an odd one. Without Burnett and Nelson.
uffda udfa (19h) : Cowboys radio team initially called Crosby GW NO GOOD. Lol.
DarkaneRules (20h) : we beat an arguably better team at their place without morgan burnett. still can't believe it
uffda udfa (20h) : Re emphasized we aren't the better team. Sour grapes are sweet to me.
uffda udfa (20h) : Complaining of PI call and huddle penalty.
uffda udfa (20h) : Dallas play by play guy said we aren't best team.
uffda udfa (20h) : NBC is off the air down here. This is an OTA broadcast signal.
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