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Offline IronMan  
#21 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 1:30:27 AM(UTC)
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Offline Nonstopdrivel  
#22 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 7:13:08 PM(UTC)
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Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#23 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 8:05:30 PM(UTC)
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Offline TheEngineer  
#24 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 12:11:19 AM(UTC)
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" said: Go to Quoted Post
Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.


That's because the left column is the favourites and the right is the underdogs!
Offline djcubez  
#25 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 1:23:12 AM(UTC)
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" said: Go to Quoted Post
" said: Go to Quoted Post
Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.


That's because the left column is the favourites and the right is the underdogs!

Yea, no reason for underdog picks in the first week, nobody really knows what's up.
Offline Nonstopdrivel  
#26 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 1:52:20 AM(UTC)
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Last year I read an article (it might have been Gregg Easterbrook's "Tuesday Morning Quarterback" -- I can't remember) in which it was stated that over the course of the entire season, the following simple system has beaten the picks of virtually every pundit out there. For every game:

1) Pick the team with the better record.

2) In case of a tie, pick the home team.

Sounds oversimplified, and it is, but the beauty of it is it plays the odds, doesn't overthink the nuances, and doesn't jump on bandwagons.

Obviously, this isn't an optimal strategy for week 1, when you have no prior information, but its success improves dramatically as the season progresses.

If I remember correctly, no pundit in the past few years has exceeded a 70% correct pick rate, and I don't think many get above 60%. Some of the most famous score an abysmal 25% or less! The strategy above is rarely beat by more than one nationally known pundit.
Offline Nonstopdrivel  
#27 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 1:47:46 AM(UTC)
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So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?
Offline djcubez  
#28 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 5:49:49 AM(UTC)
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" said: Go to Quoted Post
So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?

My roommate is in a $50 pool every week with his family and he got it this week with his Denver over Cincinatti pick. I was actually close to picking San Francisco over Arizona just because I thought Mike Singletary is really changing the culture over there. I didn't do it though :/
Offline Rockmolder  
#29 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 6:41:18 AM(UTC)
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" said: Go to Quoted Post
So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?


I went Cinci over Denver. So did the Ninja and beingBOILEDhurts (Forgot who you are).

The one pick that everyone got wrong was, like you said, 49ers over Arizona. Shouldn't have taken that gamble on Miami, though. They got their ass handed to them by the Falcons.

Don't know if you found it, but you can see everyone's previous picks here.

http://football.fantasys.../22111/grouppicks?week=1
Offline Zero2Cool  
#30 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 9:50:06 AM(UTC)
Rank: Premier Member

Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Gold: 2015Yahoo! Fantasy Football - Gold: 2009FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Silver: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Silver: 2011ESPN NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2013

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DOMINATION!!
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