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Rank: Hall of Famer
 Posts: 12,579 Joined: 3/16/2007(UTC) Location: North Central Wisconsin Applause Given: 349
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I just joined as well.. world domination next. ;) |
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Rank: Practice Squad
 Posts: 116 Joined: 8/13/2008(UTC) Applause Given: 1
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Just joined... bring it on! |
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Rank: Legend
 Posts: 25,052 Joined: 10/13/2006(UTC) Location: Green Bay, WI Applause Given: 1,707
Applause Received: 1,708
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Where is everyone? Scared? :) |
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Rank: 5th Round Draft Pick
Posts: 1,621
Joined: 8/8/2008(UTC)
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Rank: Legend
Posts: 25,052 Joined: 10/13/2006(UTC) Location: Green Bay, WI Applause Given: 1,707
Applause Received: 1,708
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Working on making one for the site, but unless by some miracle, it won't be done in time for the season. |
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Rank: Pro Bowl
Posts: 3,490
Joined: 8/7/2008(UTC)
Applause Given: 14
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Rank: Hall of Famer
Posts: 11,691 Joined: 9/14/2008(UTC) Location: Germany Applause Given: 365
Applause Received: 263
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Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird. |
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Rank: Legend
Posts: 25,052 Joined: 10/13/2006(UTC) Location: Green Bay, WI Applause Given: 1,707
Applause Received: 1,708
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Wow, nearly 20 ... keep'em coming ... pussies. :) |
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Rank: 5th Round Draft Pick
Posts: 1,621
Joined: 8/8/2008(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: "  Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird. That's because the left column is the favourites and the right is the underdogs! |
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Rank: 2nd Round Draft Pick
Posts: 1,750
Joined: 8/7/2008(UTC)
Location: Milwaukee
Applause Given: 8
Applause Received: 13
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Originally Posted by: " Originally Posted by: " Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird. That's because the left column is the favourites and the right is the underdogs! Yea, no reason for underdog picks in the first week, nobody really knows what's up. |
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Rank: Hall of Famer
Posts: 11,691 Joined: 9/14/2008(UTC) Location: Germany Applause Given: 365
Applause Received: 263
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Last year I read an article (it might have been Gregg Easterbrook's "Tuesday Morning Quarterback" -- I can't remember) in which it was stated that over the course of the entire season, the following simple system has beaten the picks of virtually every pundit out there. For every game:
1) Pick the team with the better record.
2) In case of a tie, pick the home team.
Sounds oversimplified, and it is, but the beauty of it is it plays the odds, doesn't overthink the nuances, and doesn't jump on bandwagons.
Obviously, this isn't an optimal strategy for week 1, when you have no prior information, but its success improves dramatically as the season progresses.
If I remember correctly, no pundit in the past few years has exceeded a 70% correct pick rate, and I don't think many get above 60%. Some of the most famous score an abysmal 25% or less! The strategy above is rarely beat by more than one nationally known pundit. |
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Rank: Hall of Famer
Posts: 11,691 Joined: 9/14/2008(UTC) Location: Germany Applause Given: 365
Applause Received: 263
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So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona? |
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Rank: 2nd Round Draft Pick
Posts: 1,750
Joined: 8/7/2008(UTC)
Location: Milwaukee
Applause Given: 8
Applause Received: 13
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Originally Posted by: " So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona? My roommate is in a $50 pool every week with his family and he got it this week with his Denver over Cincinatti pick. I was actually close to picking San Francisco over Arizona just because I thought Mike Singletary is really changing the culture over there. I didn't do it though :/ |
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Rank: Super Bowl MVP
 Posts: 6,336 Joined: 9/14/2008(UTC) Applause Given: 141
Applause Received: 208
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Originally Posted by: " So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona? I went Cinci over Denver. So did the Ninja and beingBOILEDhurts (Forgot who you are). The one pick that everyone got wrong was, like you said, 49ers over Arizona. Shouldn't have taken that gamble on Miami, though. They got their ass handed to them by the Falcons. Don't know if you found it, but you can see everyone's previous picks here. http://football.fantasys.../22111/grouppicks?week=1 |
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Rank: Legend
Posts: 25,052 Joined: 10/13/2006(UTC) Location: Green Bay, WI Applause Given: 1,707
Applause Received: 1,708
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