Green Bay Packers Forum

Welcome to your Green Bay Packers Online Community!

Since 2006, PackersHome has been providing a unique experience for fans.
Your participation is greatly anticipated!
Login or Register.
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline RedSoxExcel  
#1 Posted : Thursday, January 6, 2011 9:36:04 PM(UTC)

Rank: Registered
Joined: 9/30/2007(UTC)
Applause Received: 3
This is not a thread to create some kind of contraversy and have the same old "debate". I thought I'd link to this article for people interested. It's kind of interesting, especially the 40 year old stats stuff but I still think that has a big * because of the numbers QBs put up in this era.

Hey Zero, look at me, I learned how to use the Quote function for articles...

His recent dalliances with retirement drama and sexting controversies may have momentarily blinded us to Brett Favres(notes) on-field football greatness from a historical perspective. As he appears to be finally winding down his career, its worth separating the off-field stuff and focusing on Favres place in NFL history.

Favres records
How the top five players compare in many of Favres career leading categories.

Source: Pro-football-reference.comNo matter what happened in this last misbegotten season, Favre will retire as the all-time NFL leader in pass attempts and completions, passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions and sacks. Its a test of endurance weve never seen before from a quarterback, and though Peyton Manning(notes) may threaten some of those records in the next five years, Favre is the only one to spend that much time on the top of the mountain.

As noted baseball statistician Bill James has done with the concepts of peak value and career value over the years, its worth wondering how many times Favre has been the NFLs unquestioned top quarterback on a per-season basis. James originated the idea of similarity scores to find the closest comparisons between baseball players across different eras. The system has since been adapted for football.

With those numbers, we can look at where Favre stands in the grand scheme of things. We know that Favre was the ultimate stat collector but how good was he really from season to season?

At his very best in Green Bay, which was probably the 1996 season (325-for-543, 3,899 passing yards, 39 TDs, 13 INTs), Mike Holmgrens West Coast offense left Favre a bit short in raw stats, but very high in efficiency. That was the only season Favre won a Super Bowl and the only time he finished first overall in Football Outsiders cumulative efficiency metrics. What stands out in Favres numbers during this period is the consistency the two closest comparisons to his 1996 season among any NFL quarterback are his 1997 (304-for-513; 3,867 passing yards; 35 TDs; 16 INTs) and 1998 (347-for-551, 4,212, 31 TDs, 23 INTs) seasons. After that, the similarities run to a mixed bag of fluke seasons by average quarterbacks (2004 Aaron Brooks, 1990 Jim Everett, 2002 Kerry Collins(notes)) and less-than-best campaigns by the cream of the crop (2004-2006 Tom Brady(notes), 1989 Dan Marino, 1988 Jim Kelly).

How did he do in the declining years of a quarterback, which is generally pegged around the mid-to-late 30s?

We can bring in his last season with the Packers, the 2007 season (356-535, 4,155, 28 TDs and 15 INTs) in which he was as efficient as any quarterback in the league. Other similar seasons were Favre in 2009 and Peyton Manning in 2008 and 2009. In 2007, Favre reaped the benefits of an improving offensive line and a lot of talented young players, as opposed to his one season with the Jets, where injury, personnel, and coaching issues led to disappointing results. In that season in New York (343-522, 3,472, 22 TDs, 22 INTs), his closet competitors were himself five times, and Warren Moon of 1995. Even though Favre underperformed to previous standards as a Jet, the fact that he was still playing at an above league average level with his fortieth birthday just around the corner defied all available comparison to anybody but himself.

This may be the most impressive aspect of his on-field legacy: Favre is the best old quarterback in NFL history, and it isnt even close. The 2009 season he put up at age 40 (363-531, 4,202, 33 TDs and 7 INTs) was unprecedented; the closest similarity from an age perspective (over 35) is the Favre at age 39 and 38. Two other over-35 quarterbacks come closest from the production side the 37-year-old Rich Gannon in 2002 (418-618, 4,689, 26 TDs and 10 INTs), and the 38-year-old Kurt Warner(notes) in 2009 (339-513, 3,753, 26 TDs and 14 INTs). And to put that season from a 40-year-old in line with any other quarterback season, the closest overall similarities to Favres 2009 come from Peyton Manning in 2008 and 2009, and Trent Green(notes) in 2005.

The unique consistency of Favres better years comes in the overall one-, two-, and three-year sim scores for his entire career. His closest peer was himself. Favres numbers werent always the most eye-popping, but his historical per-season value was legitimate, especially when he went forward at ages when most great quarterbacks are furthering broadcasting careers.

Favres career will be remembered a lot like his life heroic and exciting, but flawed and sometimes inexplicable boneheaded. But make no mistake, even though his final season was a disaster for a host of reasons, Favre isnt just a guy who hung around too long. He was great in the NFL longer than anyone else has been, and elite far longer than anyone ever has a right to expect. It may take awhile for all the ancillary drama to fade and reveal the magnitude of that accomplishment, but in the end, its both the length and breadth of his career that make Brett Favre such an intriguing individual.

Love him or hate him, well never see his like again.
Rss Feed 
Users browsing this topic
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.



Fan Shout
TheKanataThrilla (58m) : C'mon Saints
TheKanataThrilla (4h) : Thanks Denver
Zero2Cool (11h) : no Vernon Davis for 49ers
Tezzy (15h) : Gameday! Go Pack Go!
Smokey (4-Oct) : Join and post today !
Tezzy (3-Oct) : Haha.After day drinking I feel as old as that dude looks.
TheKanataThrilla (2-Oct) : Tezzy you look a lot older than 36 in your profile pic
Zero2Cool (2-Oct) : Today's Birthdays: Tezzy (36)
Zero2Cool (1-Oct) : Jordan Spieth made so much money golfing in 2015, his caddie DOUBLED what Tiger Woods made.
Smokey (1-Oct) : hello Dave !
Zero2Cool (30-Sep) : Such a beautiful day outside and also my dad's birthday! Today's Birthdays: yinzer (58)
Zero2Cool (29-Sep) : Crazy, Rodgers threw 11 passes 10+ yards and only 5 completed.
Mucky Tundra (29-Sep) : and they traded Jonathan Bostic to the Patriots!
Mucky Tundra (29-Sep) : Bears trade Jared Allen to the Panthers
Zero2Cool (28-Sep) : Today's Birthdays: Akexpat (36)
Zero2Cool (28-Sep) : I'm doing pretty good huh
Gilligan (27-Sep) : Anyone explain to Z2C that the object of NFL Pick'em is not like golf where you go for the lowest score? :-)
hardrocker950 (27-Sep) : glad to see one of my picks didn't take :/
TheKanataThrilla (27-Sep) : They forgot they moved to the NFC?
hardrocker950 (27-Sep) : still wondering why the Seattle game is on CBS
dhazer (27-Sep) : oops someone left the stream running for the full week lol
yooperfan (27-Sep) : I don't like Sunday without the Packers!
Smokey (26-Sep) : Join Today, Post Today !
Smokey (25-Sep) : The"Chat" is very OPEN !
Smokey (24-Sep) : Great !!
dhazer (24-Sep) : enjoy chat ;)
Smokey (24-Sep) : New Category = Good Stuff Zero
Zero2Cool (24-Sep) : Today's Birthdays: mi_keys (27)
hardrocker950 (24-Sep) : had a good laugh when I saw the % on the Bears/Seahawks game
Tezzy (23-Sep) : Showing the pick stats keeps me more engaged. If you pick well you don't have to be worried about being swayed ;) +1
Zero2Cool (23-Sep) : If people are going to be swayed by that, what makes you think they aren't viewing the spread? lol
gbguy20 (23-Sep) : i like the feature don't get me wrong. I just see where it might sway some results.
gbguy20 (23-Sep) : i guess i shouldnt call it an advantage. but being able to see that 90% of people have already picked this team in this matchup may sway you
Zero2Cool (23-Sep) : there is no advantage at all. you can change your picks anytime prior to game kickoff.
Please sign in to use Fan Shout

Road To Super Bowl 50
Sunday, Sep 13 @ 12:00 PM
at Bears
Sunday, Sep 20 @ 7:30 PM
Monday, Sep 28 @ 7:30 PM
Sunday, Oct 4 @ 3:25 PM
at 49ers
Sunday, Oct 11 @ 12:00 PM
Sunday, Oct 18 @ 3:25 PM
Sunday, Oct 25 @ 12:00 AM
- BYE -
Sunday, Nov 1 @ 7:30 PM
at Broncos
Sunday, Nov 8 @ 12:00 PM
at Panthers
Sunday, Nov 15 @ 12:00 PM
Sunday, Nov 22 @ 12:00 PM
at Vikings
Thursday, Nov 26 @ 7:30 PM
Thursday, Dec 3 @ 7:25 PM
at Lions
Sunday, Dec 13 @ 3:25 PM
Sunday, Dec 20 @ 3:05 PM
at Raiders
Sunday, Dec 27 @ 3:25 PM
at Cardinals
Sunday, Jan 3 @ 12:00 PM

Think About It
Think About It

Recent Topics
1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / RainX

1h / Green Bay Packers Talk / TheKanataThrilla

2h / Green Bay Packers Talk / RainX

2h / Green Bay Packers Talk / TheKanataThrilla

2h / Green Bay Packers Talk / TheKanataThrilla

2h / Green Bay Packers Talk / luigis

2h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Cheesey

2h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Cheesey

12h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Porforis

14h / Green Bay Packers Talk / texaspackerbacker

17h / Green Bay Packers Talk / yooperfan

3-Oct / Green Bay Packers Talk / earthquake

3-Oct / Green Bay Packers Talk / DakotaT

2-Oct / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

2-Oct / Football Familiarity / Zero2Cool