Green Bay Packers Forum

Welcome to your Green Bay Packers Online Community!

Since 2006, PackersHome has been providing a unique experience for fans.
Your participation is greatly anticipated!
Login or Register.
6 Pages«<456
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline zombieslayer  
#51 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:09:45 AM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

Joined: 8/7/2008(UTC)
Location: San Francisco
Applause Given: 778
Applause Received: 495
Pack - I had a bunch of arguments:
1) Elite RBs are actually bad because they take money from other areas,
2) Rushing success has no bearing on a team's success,
3) Pass/run %

I didn't "concede" anything. I admit when I'm wrong. I was right about 1 and 2 and wrong about 3. I thought we could go more gung ho on pass %, but found the sweet spot is less than I thought, more high 50s than 65% which I wanted.

I know you just like to ruffle my feathers, but come on. Most of my arguments about running have been correct, and the NFL knows it. Ted Thompson follows #1 and I bet you had I told him these 3 arguments 2 or 3 years ago back when I was making it, if it was behind closed doors, he'd agree with #1 and most likely #2.

And you all have to admit that not only is Mike McCarthy a pass first coach (despite what he tells the media), it generally works. If we become a team that runs in the 50s, we will lose. That crap doesn't work in today's NFL.

So if anything, I was WAY ahead of all of you because I said this years ago.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#52 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:16:25 AM(UTC)
Rank: Premier Member

Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Gold: 2015Yahoo! Fantasy Football - Gold: 2009FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Silver: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Silver: 2011ESPN NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2013

United States
Joined: 10/13/2006(UTC)
Location: Green Bay, WI
Applause Given: 2,300
Applause Received: 3,524
"Success" I feel is a relative term. Rushing Yards holds little to no bearing on winning is what I believe to be accurate. Rushing Attempts gaining any positive yards consistently I would have to imagine has a positive impact on the Passing game. Which in turn assists a higher Offensive QB Rating, which I believe Offensive / Defensive QB Rating differential holds a very direct bearing on winning/losing games.

Truth be told, there is no script to winning, other than scoring more points than the other team. If there were such a script, I can think of 32 teams that would be using it in the NFL, thus, nullifying said script's value.


I maintain as I said several times, pass 60, run 40 in terms of percentage yields the best outcome as it keeps the defense more honest than say 70/30 ratio.
Offline zombieslayer  
#53 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:24:53 AM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

Joined: 8/7/2008(UTC)
Location: San Francisco
Applause Given: 778
Applause Received: 495
Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
"Success" I feel is a relative term. Rushing Yards holds little to no bearing on winning is what I believe to be accurate. Rushing Attempts gaining any positive yards consistently I would have to imagine has a positive impact on the Passing game. Which in turn assists a higher Offensive QB Rating, which I believe Offensive / Defensive QB Rating differential holds a very direct bearing on winning/losing games.

Truth be told, there is no script to winning, other than scoring more points than the other team. If there were such a script, I can think of 32 teams that would be using it in the NFL, thus, nullifying said script's value.


I maintain as I said several times, pass 60, run 40 in terms of percentage yields the best outcome as it keeps the defense more honest than say 70/30 ratio.


Yes, that's about right. And no, there is no script. But if you're a run, run, pass, punt team, you won't get far in today's NFL.

Now, this is ONLY one game, but if you look at GB vs Houston, we were definitely a pass first team and it worked. 37 passes vs 33 rushes was deceptive. Mike McCarthy called mostly pass plays until the game was completely sealed.

When we were up 35-17, Mike McCarthy had called (assuming Mike calls the plays and given that Aaron is allowed to change them at the line) 35 passes vs 21 rushes. The last 4 drives were just rushes (with 2 passes thrown in there) to eat the clock.

So it's obvious that in this specific game, going pass first worked. And this is credit that Pack93z fails to give me and Mike McCarthy. I've said since 2007 that Mike McCarthy calls a game pretty much how I would have called it. He has become my favorite Packers coach that I've ever watched. By far. And that includes Mike Holmgren.

As for the word success, it only means one thing to me - winning SBs. Everything short of winning a SB is a less than successful season. We're the Packers, not the Vikings.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#54 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:33:31 AM(UTC)
Rank: Premier Member

Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Gold: 2015Yahoo! Fantasy Football - Gold: 2009FleaFlicker Fantasy Football - Silver: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Silver: 2011ESPN NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2010Yahoo! NCAA March Madness - Bronze: 2013

United States
Joined: 10/13/2006(UTC)
Location: Green Bay, WI
Applause Given: 2,300
Applause Received: 3,524
I think it's more like 41 pass plays and 29 rush plays. I don't think the two runs by Aaron Rodgers were designed runs, and the two sacks were passing plays. One of Rodgers rushes were on a 3rd and 1, could be a run play??? 40 30?

58.6% pass
41.4% run

awfully close to my 60/40 ratio target


Packers actually lost time of possession in this game by 5 minutes too.


Edit, you can find this link in the check this out sticky too.
http://www.mortgageloanc...rating_differential.html

Packers leading the league in QB Rating differential ... uh oh NFL ... you fucked! I found that encouraging. I'm hoping it translates into #5, if you know what I mean.

Edit2, here's some links that support my theory on qb rating differential if you still don't believe me.
http://sportsillustrated...ing-qb-rating/index.html
http://www.coldhardfootb...t-the-passing-game/8213/
thanks Post received 1 applause.
zombieslayer on 10/19/2012(UTC)
Offline zombieslayer  
#55 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 9:17:49 AM(UTC)
Rank: Registered

Joined: 8/7/2008(UTC)
Location: San Francisco
Applause Given: 778
Applause Received: 495
Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
I think it's more like 41 pass plays and 29 rush plays. I don't think the two runs by Aaron Rodgers were designed runs, and the two sacks were passing plays. One of Rodgers rushes were on a 3rd and 1, could be a run play??? 40 30?

58.6% pass
41.4% run

awfully close to my 60/40 ratio target


Packers actually lost time of possession in this game by 5 minutes too.


Edit, you can find this link in the check this out sticky too.
http://www.mortgageloanc...rating_differential.html

Packers leading the league in QB Rating differential ... uh oh NFL ... you fucked! I found that encouraging. I'm hoping it translates into #5, if you know what I mean.


Speaking of QB Rating differential (which may be THE stat that's closest to a team's success), I wonder what happened to Dexter_Sinister. He used to give us those updates.

And yeah, I know what you mean. Hope so too. [-o<
Rss Feed 
Users browsing this topic
Guest
6 Pages«<456
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Notification

Icon
Error


Fan Shout
Zero2Cool (23h): Penguins are in the Finals!!
Zero2Cool (24-May): Slim Eddie Lacy!
Zero2Cool (11-May): Yeah I was kind of stunned myself. Gordon is pretty much done I believe
TheKanataThrilla (11-May): Wow they kept that secret since January. Impressive leak control.
Zero2Cool (10-May): A source confirmed that Gordon had microfracture knee surgery in January.
Zero2Cool (10-May): I think that surgery was done in Jan, not coming up.
TheKanataThrilla (10-May): Melvin Gordon gettting microfracture surgery.
IronMan (10-May): Curry is so fun to watch
uffda udfa (9-May): Packers waive DT Josh Boyd.
Zero2Cool (9-May): Dan Patrick is a good one, but geez his commercials are ear punishers.
Zero2Cool (9-May): Bill Michaels is good. Rome blows. Jay Mohr is weird.
Zero2Cool (9-May): He's one of the few I enjoy listening to. Albeit, on the short Fox Sports segments Sunday morning.
Pack93z (9-May): But he certainly invokes me wanting to turn the channel... yes... he does that well.
Pack93z (9-May): How... he might think outside the box, but fails to look at all aspects before forming an opinion. For me... he does not invoke thought... t
Zero2Cool (8-May): He's easily thought-provoking too. He thinks outside the box.
Pack93z (7-May): He got the opinionated part right at least... specious.
Pack93z (7-May): From his podcast page... what a crock of dog dung.... The Herd with Colin Cowherd is a thought-provoking, opinionated, and topic-driven jour
Porforis (7-May): SQLzbub
Zero2Cool (6-May): uh oh ---> Size of database: 666 MB
Zero2Cool (3-May): Packers annual shareholders meeting will be held on July 21 at 11 a.m.
Zero2Cool (2-May): Packers decline option on former first-round pick Datone Jones
Zero2Cool (2-May): For the public
Zero2Cool (2-May): OTA practices: May 24, June 2 and June 6
Smokey (1-May): Pecan Waffles !
gbguy20 (30-Apr): i like waffles
Mucky Tundra (30-Apr): mmm Waffles
IronMan (30-Apr): seriously. Waffle House
IronMan (30-Apr): Waffle House!
Mucky Tundra (29-Apr): In unrelated news, a six figure sum was wired to Dr James Andrews bank account in the Cayman Islands
Zero2Cool (29-Apr): Dr. James Andrews, who examined Myles Jack in December, told the UCLA LB today that he does not need micro-fracture surgery.
wpr (29-Apr): 64321 is still available
Mucky Tundra (29-Apr): thanks wpr, now i have to change it :(
wpr (29-Apr): Right. Mucky is 12346. Big difference.
Mucky Tundra (29-Apr): because i'm smarter than he is ;)
Zero2Cool (29-Apr): 12345 didn't fare well for Tunsil, what makes you think it will for you?
Please sign in to use Fan Shout

Current Headlines

2016 Opponents
Sunday, Sep 11 @ 12:00 PM
at Jaguars
Sunday, Sep 18 @ 7:30 PM
at Vikings
Sunday, Sep 25 @ 12:00 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Oct 2 @ 12:00 AM
BYE
Sunday, Oct 9 @ 7:30 PM
GIANTS
Sunday, Oct 16 @ 3:25 PM
COWBOYS
Thursday, Oct 20 @ 7:25 PM
BEARS
Sunday, Oct 30 @ 12:00 PM
at Falcons
Sunday, Nov 6 @ 3:25 PM
COLTS
Sunday, Nov 13 @ 12:00 PM
at Titans
Sunday, Nov 20 @ 7:30 PM
at Redskins
Monday, Nov 28 @ 7:30 PM
at Eagles
Sunday, Dec 4 @ 12:00 PM
TEXANS
Sunday, Dec 11 @ 3:25 PM
SEAHAWKS
Sunday, Dec 18 @ 12:00 PM
at Bears
Saturday, Dec 24 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Jan 1 @ 12:00 PM
at Lions

Think About It
Think About It

Recent Topics
8h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Barfarn

11h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

11h / Green Bay Packers Talk / nerdmann

12h / Green Bay Packers Talk / DarkaneRules

13h / Green Bay Packers Talk / sschind

13h / Green Bay Packers Talk / sschind

19h / Green Bay Packers Talk / civic

26-May / PH Special / OlHoss1884

25-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / buckeyepackfan

25-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

24-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / warhawk

23-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / nerdmann

22-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / DakotaT

21-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / DakotaT

20-May / Green Bay Packers Talk / yooperfan


Tweeter