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Offline zombieslayer  
#51 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:09:45 AM(UTC)
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Pack - I had a bunch of arguments:
1) Elite RBs are actually bad because they take money from other areas,
2) Rushing success has no bearing on a team's success,
3) Pass/run %

I didn't "concede" anything. I admit when I'm wrong. I was right about 1 and 2 and wrong about 3. I thought we could go more gung ho on pass %, but found the sweet spot is less than I thought, more high 50s than 65% which I wanted.

I know you just like to ruffle my feathers, but come on. Most of my arguments about running have been correct, and the NFL knows it. Ted Thompson follows #1 and I bet you had I told him these 3 arguments 2 or 3 years ago back when I was making it, if it was behind closed doors, he'd agree with #1 and most likely #2.

And you all have to admit that not only is Mike McCarthy a pass first coach (despite what he tells the media), it generally works. If we become a team that runs in the 50s, we will lose. That crap doesn't work in today's NFL.

So if anything, I was WAY ahead of all of you because I said this years ago.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#52 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:16:25 AM(UTC)
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"Success" I feel is a relative term. Rushing Yards holds little to no bearing on winning is what I believe to be accurate. Rushing Attempts gaining any positive yards consistently I would have to imagine has a positive impact on the Passing game. Which in turn assists a higher Offensive QB Rating, which I believe Offensive / Defensive QB Rating differential holds a very direct bearing on winning/losing games.

Truth be told, there is no script to winning, other than scoring more points than the other team. If there were such a script, I can think of 32 teams that would be using it in the NFL, thus, nullifying said script's value.


I maintain as I said several times, pass 60, run 40 in terms of percentage yields the best outcome as it keeps the defense more honest than say 70/30 ratio.
Offline zombieslayer  
#53 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:24:53 AM(UTC)
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Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
"Success" I feel is a relative term. Rushing Yards holds little to no bearing on winning is what I believe to be accurate. Rushing Attempts gaining any positive yards consistently I would have to imagine has a positive impact on the Passing game. Which in turn assists a higher Offensive QB Rating, which I believe Offensive / Defensive QB Rating differential holds a very direct bearing on winning/losing games.

Truth be told, there is no script to winning, other than scoring more points than the other team. If there were such a script, I can think of 32 teams that would be using it in the NFL, thus, nullifying said script's value.


I maintain as I said several times, pass 60, run 40 in terms of percentage yields the best outcome as it keeps the defense more honest than say 70/30 ratio.


Yes, that's about right. And no, there is no script. But if you're a run, run, pass, punt team, you won't get far in today's NFL.

Now, this is ONLY one game, but if you look at GB vs Houston, we were definitely a pass first team and it worked. 37 passes vs 33 rushes was deceptive. Mike McCarthy called mostly pass plays until the game was completely sealed.

When we were up 35-17, Mike McCarthy had called (assuming Mike calls the plays and given that Aaron is allowed to change them at the line) 35 passes vs 21 rushes. The last 4 drives were just rushes (with 2 passes thrown in there) to eat the clock.

So it's obvious that in this specific game, going pass first worked. And this is credit that Pack93z fails to give me and Mike McCarthy. I've said since 2007 that Mike McCarthy calls a game pretty much how I would have called it. He has become my favorite Packers coach that I've ever watched. By far. And that includes Mike Holmgren.

As for the word success, it only means one thing to me - winning SBs. Everything short of winning a SB is a less than successful season. We're the Packers, not the Vikings.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#54 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:33:31 AM(UTC)
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I think it's more like 41 pass plays and 29 rush plays. I don't think the two runs by Aaron Rodgers were designed runs, and the two sacks were passing plays. One of Rodgers rushes were on a 3rd and 1, could be a run play??? 40 30?

58.6% pass
41.4% run

awfully close to my 60/40 ratio target


Packers actually lost time of possession in this game by 5 minutes too.


Edit, you can find this link in the check this out sticky too.
http://www.mortgageloanc...rating_differential.html

Packers leading the league in QB Rating differential ... uh oh NFL ... you fucked! I found that encouraging. I'm hoping it translates into #5, if you know what I mean.

Edit2, here's some links that support my theory on qb rating differential if you still don't believe me.
http://sportsillustrated...ing-qb-rating/index.html
http://www.coldhardfootb...t-the-passing-game/8213/
thanks Post received 1 applause.
zombieslayer on 10/19/2012(UTC)
Offline zombieslayer  
#55 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 9:17:49 AM(UTC)
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Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
I think it's more like 41 pass plays and 29 rush plays. I don't think the two runs by Aaron Rodgers were designed runs, and the two sacks were passing plays. One of Rodgers rushes were on a 3rd and 1, could be a run play??? 40 30?

58.6% pass
41.4% run

awfully close to my 60/40 ratio target


Packers actually lost time of possession in this game by 5 minutes too.


Edit, you can find this link in the check this out sticky too.
http://www.mortgageloanc...rating_differential.html

Packers leading the league in QB Rating differential ... uh oh NFL ... you fucked! I found that encouraging. I'm hoping it translates into #5, if you know what I mean.


Speaking of QB Rating differential (which may be THE stat that's closest to a team's success), I wonder what happened to Dexter_Sinister. He used to give us those updates.

And yeah, I know what you mean. Hope so too. [-o<
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