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Offline zombieslayer  
#51 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:09:45 AM(UTC)
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Pack - I had a bunch of arguments:
1) Elite RBs are actually bad because they take money from other areas,
2) Rushing success has no bearing on a team's success,
3) Pass/run %

I didn't "concede" anything. I admit when I'm wrong. I was right about 1 and 2 and wrong about 3. I thought we could go more gung ho on pass %, but found the sweet spot is less than I thought, more high 50s than 65% which I wanted.

I know you just like to ruffle my feathers, but come on. Most of my arguments about running have been correct, and the NFL knows it. Ted Thompson follows #1 and I bet you had I told him these 3 arguments 2 or 3 years ago back when I was making it, if it was behind closed doors, he'd agree with #1 and most likely #2.

And you all have to admit that not only is Mike McCarthy a pass first coach (despite what he tells the media), it generally works. If we become a team that runs in the 50s, we will lose. That crap doesn't work in today's NFL.

So if anything, I was WAY ahead of all of you because I said this years ago.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#52 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:16:25 AM(UTC)
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"Success" I feel is a relative term. Rushing Yards holds little to no bearing on winning is what I believe to be accurate. Rushing Attempts gaining any positive yards consistently I would have to imagine has a positive impact on the Passing game. Which in turn assists a higher Offensive QB Rating, which I believe Offensive / Defensive QB Rating differential holds a very direct bearing on winning/losing games.

Truth be told, there is no script to winning, other than scoring more points than the other team. If there were such a script, I can think of 32 teams that would be using it in the NFL, thus, nullifying said script's value.


I maintain as I said several times, pass 60, run 40 in terms of percentage yields the best outcome as it keeps the defense more honest than say 70/30 ratio.
Offline zombieslayer  
#53 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:24:53 AM(UTC)
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Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
"Success" I feel is a relative term. Rushing Yards holds little to no bearing on winning is what I believe to be accurate. Rushing Attempts gaining any positive yards consistently I would have to imagine has a positive impact on the Passing game. Which in turn assists a higher Offensive QB Rating, which I believe Offensive / Defensive QB Rating differential holds a very direct bearing on winning/losing games.

Truth be told, there is no script to winning, other than scoring more points than the other team. If there were such a script, I can think of 32 teams that would be using it in the NFL, thus, nullifying said script's value.


I maintain as I said several times, pass 60, run 40 in terms of percentage yields the best outcome as it keeps the defense more honest than say 70/30 ratio.


Yes, that's about right. And no, there is no script. But if you're a run, run, pass, punt team, you won't get far in today's NFL.

Now, this is ONLY one game, but if you look at GB vs Houston, we were definitely a pass first team and it worked. 37 passes vs 33 rushes was deceptive. Mike McCarthy called mostly pass plays until the game was completely sealed.

When we were up 35-17, Mike McCarthy had called (assuming Mike calls the plays and given that Aaron is allowed to change them at the line) 35 passes vs 21 rushes. The last 4 drives were just rushes (with 2 passes thrown in there) to eat the clock.

So it's obvious that in this specific game, going pass first worked. And this is credit that Pack93z fails to give me and Mike McCarthy. I've said since 2007 that Mike McCarthy calls a game pretty much how I would have called it. He has become my favorite Packers coach that I've ever watched. By far. And that includes Mike Holmgren.

As for the word success, it only means one thing to me - winning SBs. Everything short of winning a SB is a less than successful season. We're the Packers, not the Vikings.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#54 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:33:31 AM(UTC)
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I think it's more like 41 pass plays and 29 rush plays. I don't think the two runs by Aaron Rodgers were designed runs, and the two sacks were passing plays. One of Rodgers rushes were on a 3rd and 1, could be a run play??? 40 30?

58.6% pass
41.4% run

awfully close to my 60/40 ratio target


Packers actually lost time of possession in this game by 5 minutes too.


Edit, you can find this link in the check this out sticky too.
http://www.mortgageloanc...rating_differential.html

Packers leading the league in QB Rating differential ... uh oh NFL ... you fucked! I found that encouraging. I'm hoping it translates into #5, if you know what I mean.

Edit2, here's some links that support my theory on qb rating differential if you still don't believe me.
http://sportsillustrated...ing-qb-rating/index.html
http://www.coldhardfootb...t-the-passing-game/8213/
thanks Post received 1 applause.
zombieslayer on 10/19/2012(UTC)
Offline zombieslayer  
#55 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 9:17:49 AM(UTC)
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Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
I think it's more like 41 pass plays and 29 rush plays. I don't think the two runs by Aaron Rodgers were designed runs, and the two sacks were passing plays. One of Rodgers rushes were on a 3rd and 1, could be a run play??? 40 30?

58.6% pass
41.4% run

awfully close to my 60/40 ratio target


Packers actually lost time of possession in this game by 5 minutes too.


Edit, you can find this link in the check this out sticky too.
http://www.mortgageloanc...rating_differential.html

Packers leading the league in QB Rating differential ... uh oh NFL ... you fucked! I found that encouraging. I'm hoping it translates into #5, if you know what I mean.


Speaking of QB Rating differential (which may be THE stat that's closest to a team's success), I wonder what happened to Dexter_Sinister. He used to give us those updates.

And yeah, I know what you mean. Hope so too. [-o<
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Zero2Cool (1h) : Bahahahahahahha GO PACK GO!!!!
Zero2Cool (1h) : when you're buying your Super Bowl LI Champion gear, be critical of that too!
Zero2Cool (1h) : keep trying to diminish what the Packers have done and ...
Zero2Cool (1h) : one... that's just how it goes. They let the players play. But go ahead
Zero2Cool (1h) : Everyone knows on the hail mary type passes, those little shoves won't be called. Think replacement refs 2012. So, no did not get away with
Dulak (1h) : ya I think they mentioned that U U ... but you see this alot - even in the dallas game they pushed off at least 1 time (they as in dallas)
uffda udfa (8h) : Just rewatched Cobbs hail mary catch in slo mo...he should've been flagged for OPI. Got away with one.
uffda udfa (10h) : Nope. I like Gus.
beast (10h) : Did you want Anthony Lynn as HC? Cushion Bradley was going to follow Lynn where ever.
uffda udfa (11h) : Gus Bradley is new DC in SD/LA. I would've loved to had him here in Green Bay.
uffda udfa (15h) : It's just fine.
musccy (16h) : 5 questionable Packers, none for Falcons. Not good.
uffda udfa (16h) : Jordy not listed as OUT or DOUBTFUL. Questionable on injury report.
uffda udfa (17h) : This is the 6th straight game we've faced someone for the 2nd time. We learn.
uffda udfa (17h) : Aaron: I like our role. I like our chances. (said he relishes being an underdog)
uffda udfa (17h) : Aaron alludes to fake crowd noise at Georgia Dome for Sunday.
uffda udfa (18h) : So, to recap. Losing streak "just the way it is", winning streak "astronomical feat". #Balanced
uffda udfa (18h) : Ironically, he called the turn around "astronomical" not just the way it is in the NFL. #Don'tMissTheIrony
uffda udfa (18h) : Ted tells Demovsky the Packers weren't underachieving when 4-6. Just the way it is in the NFL????
Zero2Cool (22h) : Only time I recall getting annoyed is when they beat a single topic over and over and over.
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Zero2Cool (22h) : I'm kind of in the boat that they all are babblying boonies.
Pack93z (22h) : God bless it... Bill Michaels can be a stubborn SOB at times... love his Packers coverage, still think he is a buffoon at times.
Zero2Cool (23h) : Jordy Nelson Named PFWA Comeback Player of the Year
Zero2Cool (20-Jan) : Carter is predicitng the end is in ATL for Packers.
Porforis (20-Jan) : Or I could just completely miss the part where that was Cris Carter.
Porforis (20-Jan) : Careful there. Don't you want to predict a Packers loss just in case?
Zero2Cool (20-Jan) : @criscarter80 :Every fairy tale comes to an end, and this is where the magic carpet ride stops in the ATL.
Zero2Cool (20-Jan) : McCarthy: "JC Tretter actually had surgery Tuesday. He won't be available this week"
Zero2Cool (20-Jan) : Crosby is fine now. Full Participant in practice Thursday
Porforis (20-Jan) : What I'm more worried about at this point is WR injuries and Crosby being sick. Who'd be the backup if Crosby can't go?
Zero2Cool (20-Jan) : We do have hope. Our secondary has improved. Also, he had to throw 80% to get 1 point up. That won't happen again.
Zero2Cool (20-Jan) : I like to tease sometimes.
uffda udfa (20-Jan) : Only 80%? :). We lost by one given that stat? Wish we had hope of tightening up.
uffda udfa (20-Jan) : Z, u should tell everyone who Quintorris is. Quintorris Lopez Jones, better known as Julio.
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