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nerdmann  
#101 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 10:35:52 AM(UTC)
zombieslayer said: Go to Quoted Post
I would just like to see Aaron Rodgers release the **** ball instead of trying to setup the long bomb every play. I saw a few receivers open underneath when Aaron Rodgers ignored them and looked deep vs the Colts. We need to stop doing that.


Indeed. And shorter, high percentage passes are far less likely to be dropped.

Let them get YAC. We'll still get the long gainers.
Pack93z  
#102 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 11:27:09 AM(UTC)
What do you want from a running game? That is the question.

If you simply want to pause, even briefly, the pass rush, yes just attempts will do that.

But if you want the second level of the defense to respect the run, you have to have some effectiveness to it. Just running the ball into the pile will affect the coverage very little if the point of attack is taking care of the run.

So yes, the yards gained, more precisely the yards per carry do impact a defense.

Last season, all we needed to do was rack up the running attempts to pause the pass rush and allow the offensive line to gain an advantage in time and setup.

This season, I think we have to run the ball and affect the second level of the defense with it to force the defense to come out of taking the deep portion of the field away. Once we maintain balance the defense really is going to have to play us honest and it will start to open up that vertical aspect that Rodgers is craving. Patience and balance.

**EDIT**

The above isn't touching down and distance impacts on the play calling and conversion and the impact upon the defense as well.
play2win  
#103 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 12:30:09 PM(UTC)
Pack93z said: Go to Quoted Post
What do you want from a running game? That is the question.

If you simply want to pause, even briefly, the pass rush, yes just attempts will do that.

But if you want the second level of the defense to respect the run, you have to have some effectiveness to it. Just running the ball into the pile with affect the coverage very little if the point of attack is taking care of the run.

So yes, the yards gained, more precisely the yards per carry do impact a defense.

Last season, all we needed to do was rack up the running attempts to pause the pass rush and allow the offensive line to gain an advantage in time and setup.

This season, I think we have to run the ball and affect the second level of the defense with it to force the defense to come out of taking the deep portion of the field away. Once we maintain balance the defense really is going to have to play us honest and it will start to open up that vertical aspect that Rodgers is craving. Patience and balance.

**EDIT**

The above isn't touching down and distance impacts on the play calling and conversion and the impact upon the defense as well.


All I know is that we look like a bunch of fucking powder puffs out there on offense, and that is really, really demeaning to powder puffs. I'm sorry to any who might be reading this.

The simple fix is letting your OL tee off on the guy in front of them, with regularity. We have good enough RBs. They will reach the 2nd level if we only give the run game a chance. In my opinion, that is where McCarthy is failing big time. He is failing his OL by forcing them into impossible situations by passing the majority of the time. He is failing his defense with these ridiculous 3 & outs. He is failing Rodgers by putting him more at risk. He is also failing us fans who want to see a winner. Granted, the team has to execute, but the game plans, preparation and play calling leave a lot to be desired.

How hard can it be to call 25+ running plays? It is an attitude thing. We should be mauling other defenses.
Pack93z  
#104 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 12:44:51 PM(UTC)
play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
All I know is that we look like a bunch of fucking powder puffs out there on offense, and that is really, really demeaning to powder puffs. I'm sorry to any who might be reading this.

The simple fix is letting your OL tee off on the guy in front of them, with regularity. We have good enough RBs. They will reach the 2nd level if we only give the run game a chance. In my opinion, that is where McCarthy is failing big time. He is failing his OL by forcing them into impossible situations by passing the majority of the time. He is failing his defense with these ridiculous 3 & outs. He is failing Rodgers by putting him more at risk. He is also failing us fans who want to see a winner. Granted, the team has to execute, but the game plans, preparation and play calling leave a lot to be desired.

How hard can it be to call 25+ running plays? It is an attitude thing. We should be mauling other defenses.


I concur.. 100%.

If I had my druthers.. I would design a team in the model of a balanced team. Probably even run first, however the current NFL rules would sway that. If you can effectively run the ball, you control the game. If you have a QB worth his salt, he is going to find success in the passing game with an effective running game behind him.

Basically you dictate to opposition and that carries over into the defense as well.

Trying to pass first allows the defense to sort of dictate to you, you are going to take what they give you in coverage. That is not how I want a football team to be modeled.. I want that control. I want to dictate pace, the emotions and the clock of that game.

A locker room is a funny place, a bunch of hyper and testosterone flowing guys that feed off emotion of the game. The big hits.. the small victories within a game. There is nothing like punching the rock down someones throat and them looking at you like there is nothing they can do. Whipped. I have been on both sides of that coin at the lower levels.. there is nothing like that natural high.

I truly believe that is why we seem to play to the level of the competition often and at times (lately most of the time) seem to lack fire. We are a opportunistic type team in place of a dictating type team. We don't take what we want.. we take the path of least resistance.

Balance gives you more room for error, and in the NFL, every little edge or play may mean a win or a loss.
Rios39  
#105 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 12:50:14 PM(UTC)
zombieslayer said: Go to Quoted Post
I would just like to see Aaron Rodgers release the **** ball instead of trying to setup the long bomb every play. I saw a few receivers open underneath when Aaron Rodgers ignored them and looked deep vs the Colts. We need to stop doing that.



He's looked up to guys like Montana, Favre, Brady ect... Well they knew how to drive down the field and take what the defense gives them. You would NEVER see Montana hold onto the ball this long looking for 30+ yard strikes. In 2007 we never had a running game till Grant came on strong which took us to a new level but early on we were getting by just fine with Favre dinking and dunking his way down the field then occasionally hitting the long pass.

In 2009 we were trying this same BS. Then we got our backs against the wall and had to beat some pretty good teams like the ravens and cowboys to make the playoffs and started throwing shorter passes, slants and driving the fields length. Then the closer we got to the playoffs in came the long routes again, which you can't really complain about with the results of the steelers and cardinals game but Rodgers was JUST getting the ball out at times and took some hits. In the Cardinals game he threw a few balls that should have been picked off.

This is the kind of stuff that a coach like Belichick does NOT let happen. Sdjustments come fast. I've watched a few Patriots games where Brady wasn't getting protected and the pass rush was pretty intense but after a few series they adjusted. Started throwing some short patterns, run the ball a little bit ect.
play2win  
#106 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 1:01:08 PM(UTC)
Pack93z said: Go to Quoted Post
I concur.. 100%.

If I had my druthers.. I would design a team in the model of a balanced team. Probably even run first, however the current NFL rules would sway that. If you can effectively run the ball, you control the game. If you have a QB worth his salt, he is going to find success in the passing game with an effective running game behind him.

Basically you dictate to opposition and that carries over into the defense as well.

Trying to pass first allows the defense to sort of dictate to you, you are going to take what they give you in coverage. That is not how I want a football team to be modeled.. I want that control. I want to dictate pace, the emotions and the clock of that game.

A locker room is a funny place, a bunch of hyper and testosterone flowing guys that feed off emotion of the game. The big hits.. the small victories within a game. There is nothing like punching the rock down someones throat and them looking at you like there is nothing they can do. Whipped. I have been on both sides of that coin at the lower levels.. there is nothing like that natural high.

I truly believe that is why we seem to play to the level of the competition often and at times (lately most of the time) seem to lack fire. We are a opportunistic type team in place of a dictating type team. We don't take what we want.. we take the path of least resistance.

Balance gives you more room for error, and in the NFL, every little edge or play may mean a win or a loss.


That was palpable in last night's HOU v. NYJ game. HOU forced their will on the Jets. Beat them down with the run. The Jets D looked completely gassed. For the Packers, the beauty is that we have the talent to throw down in similar fashion. Mike just needs to call it. I think our passing attack would become way more potent as a result, and our D would benefit from less reps.

HOU's D has the fewest reps in the NFL. No wonder they are rated #3 overall, behind only SEA and SF, two more teams who have no problems calling 32+ attempts per game - that is their average attempts. All of them. HOU #2 rushing. SEA #4. SF #6.
macbob  
#107 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 4:44:02 PM(UTC)
play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
That was palpable in last night's HOU v. NYJ game. HOU forced their will on the Jets. Beat them down with the run. The Jets D looked completely gassed. For the Packers, the beauty is that we have the talent to throw down in similar fashion. Mike just needs to call it. I think our passing attack would become way more potent as a result, and our D would benefit from less reps.

HOU's D has the fewest reps in the NFL. No wonder they are rated #3 overall, behind only SEA and SF, two more teams who have no problems calling 32+ attempts per game - that is their average attempts. All of them. HOU #2 rushing. SEA #4. SF #6.


What I liked about Houston's offense was the mix of plays. They'd run the ball out of a running formation (rather than a draw out of the shotgun), then follow it up with a play-action pass. Because of the run, the LBs had to honor the run threat, couldn't just drop back in zone, and the middle of the field was open for the pass. Next play another run from the I, followed by another play-action pass. As a result, Hou is dominating time of possession 60-40%.
Mike McCarthy too many times has pretty much abandoned that type of game plan. I just hope Mike McCarthy is paying attention as he watches the Hou-Jets film to get ready for this week's game.
Pack93z  
#108 Posted : Thursday, October 18, 2012 8:06:01 PM(UTC)
So on another board.. in the same type of argument we have been wagering for some time, with Zombie finally conceding I may add (lol), I took it to task to look at the Rodgers tenure in numbers when we run more than 20 times vs less than 20 times a game.


UserPostedImage

In almost every case, running the ball has a positive effect on the team. From sacks to defense to yard per pass attempt, all for the sacrifice of 1.55 pass attempts a game.

The winning percentage looks at only those amount of games, IE when we rush more than 20 times, we win 80% of those games.


Damn auto sizing.. lol... attached the image.
Pack93z attached the following image(s):
PassVSRun.png (8kb) downloaded 40 time(s).

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Zero2Cool  
#109 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 5:13:06 AM(UTC)
Pack93z said: Go to Quoted Post
So on another board


UserPostedImage

Pack93z  
#110 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 5:43:06 AM(UTC)
No traitor here.


But later today I will throw Zombie a bone.. because the numbers that I thought were going to be there with ypc, just are not what they appear to be. Color me shocked.
zombieslayer  
#111 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:09:45 AM(UTC)
Pack - I had a bunch of arguments:
1) Elite RBs are actually bad because they take money from other areas,
2) Rushing success has no bearing on a team's success,
3) Pass/run %

I didn't "concede" anything. I admit when I'm wrong. I was right about 1 and 2 and wrong about 3. I thought we could go more gung ho on pass %, but found the sweet spot is less than I thought, more high 50s than 65% which I wanted.

I know you just like to ruffle my feathers, but come on. Most of my arguments about running have been correct, and the NFL knows it. Ted Thompson follows #1 and I bet you had I told him these 3 arguments 2 or 3 years ago back when I was making it, if it was behind closed doors, he'd agree with #1 and most likely #2.

And you all have to admit that not only is Mike McCarthy a pass first coach (despite what he tells the media), it generally works. If we become a team that runs in the 50s, we will lose. That crap doesn't work in today's NFL.

So if anything, I was WAY ahead of all of you because I said this years ago.
Zero2Cool  
#112 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:16:25 AM(UTC)
"Success" I feel is a relative term. Rushing Yards holds little to no bearing on winning is what I believe to be accurate. Rushing Attempts gaining any positive yards consistently I would have to imagine has a positive impact on the Passing game. Which in turn assists a higher Offensive QB Rating, which I believe Offensive / Defensive QB Rating differential holds a very direct bearing on winning/losing games.

Truth be told, there is no script to winning, other than scoring more points than the other team. If there were such a script, I can think of 32 teams that would be using it in the NFL, thus, nullifying said script's value.


I maintain as I said several times, pass 60, run 40 in terms of percentage yields the best outcome as it keeps the defense more honest than say 70/30 ratio.
zombieslayer  
#113 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:24:53 AM(UTC)
Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
"Success" I feel is a relative term. Rushing Yards holds little to no bearing on winning is what I believe to be accurate. Rushing Attempts gaining any positive yards consistently I would have to imagine has a positive impact on the Passing game. Which in turn assists a higher Offensive QB Rating, which I believe Offensive / Defensive QB Rating differential holds a very direct bearing on winning/losing games.

Truth be told, there is no script to winning, other than scoring more points than the other team. If there were such a script, I can think of 32 teams that would be using it in the NFL, thus, nullifying said script's value.


I maintain as I said several times, pass 60, run 40 in terms of percentage yields the best outcome as it keeps the defense more honest than say 70/30 ratio.


Yes, that's about right. And no, there is no script. But if you're a run, run, pass, punt team, you won't get far in today's NFL.

Now, this is ONLY one game, but if you look at GB vs Houston, we were definitely a pass first team and it worked. 37 passes vs 33 rushes was deceptive. Mike McCarthy called mostly pass plays until the game was completely sealed.

When we were up 35-17, Mike McCarthy had called (assuming Mike calls the plays and given that Aaron is allowed to change them at the line) 35 passes vs 21 rushes. The last 4 drives were just rushes (with 2 passes thrown in there) to eat the clock.

So it's obvious that in this specific game, going pass first worked. And this is credit that Pack93z fails to give me and Mike McCarthy. I've said since 2007 that Mike McCarthy calls a game pretty much how I would have called it. He has become my favorite Packers coach that I've ever watched. By far. And that includes Mike Holmgren.

As for the word success, it only means one thing to me - winning SBs. Everything short of winning a SB is a less than successful season. We're the Packers, not the Vikings.
Zero2Cool  
#114 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 7:33:31 AM(UTC)
I think it's more like 41 pass plays and 29 rush plays. I don't think the two runs by Aaron Rodgers were designed runs, and the two sacks were passing plays. One of Rodgers rushes were on a 3rd and 1, could be a run play??? 40 30?

58.6% pass
41.4% run

awfully close to my 60/40 ratio target


Packers actually lost time of possession in this game by 5 minutes too.


Edit, you can find this link in the check this out sticky too.
http://www.mortgageloanc...rating_differential.html

Packers leading the league in QB Rating differential ... uh oh NFL ... you fucked! I found that encouraging. I'm hoping it translates into #5, if you know what I mean.

Edit2, here's some links that support my theory on qb rating differential if you still don't believe me.
http://sportsillustrated...ing-qb-rating/index.html
http://www.coldhardfootb...t-the-passing-game/8213/
zombieslayer  
#115 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 9:17:49 AM(UTC)
Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
I think it's more like 41 pass plays and 29 rush plays. I don't think the two runs by Aaron Rodgers were designed runs, and the two sacks were passing plays. One of Rodgers rushes were on a 3rd and 1, could be a run play??? 40 30?

58.6% pass
41.4% run

awfully close to my 60/40 ratio target


Packers actually lost time of possession in this game by 5 minutes too.


Edit, you can find this link in the check this out sticky too.
http://www.mortgageloanc...rating_differential.html

Packers leading the league in QB Rating differential ... uh oh NFL ... you fucked! I found that encouraging. I'm hoping it translates into #5, if you know what I mean.


Speaking of QB Rating differential (which may be THE stat that's closest to a team's success), I wonder what happened to Dexter_Sinister. He used to give us those updates.

And yeah, I know what you mean. Hope so too. [-o<
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