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Offline PackFanWithTwins  
#31 Posted : Monday, October 8, 2012 1:42:26 PM(UTC)
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zombieslayer said: Go to Quoted Post
You're absolutely right and I'm absolutely wrong. Last year's SB winner was the Giants who were ranked 32 out of 32 in running. the year before it was the Packers who were ranked 24 out of 32 in rushing. Before that, the Saints who were 6 out of 32 in rushing. Before that, it was the Steelers who were 23 out of 32 in rushing.

What do those teams have in common? All those teams led the NFL in rushing.

Well, there you go. There's our problem. Screw the pass. Let's lead the NFL in rushing so we can win the SB. :-k




Sarcasm aside, the key to winning a game is Passer Rating Differential. You can read all about the correlation here:
http://www.coldhardfootb...ts.com/stats/2012/5/PRD/

Dexter_Sinister wrote up a really nice article last year about it and how it correlated with Super Bowl wins historically.

As for correlation between rushing success and winning, there is NONE WHATSOEVER. I checked the stats. It had as much correlation as how many times a Vikings fan picks his nose vs how successful people in the East Coast are at catching salmon.


Just a note. The giants, were last in rushing because they sucked earlier in the season, but then they went on their run, they were rushing for 109/gm. When the Packers went on their run in 2010. they were rushing for 103/gm.

Saints were not that good, but they also had the run game pick up at the end.

All three had a passing game, a run game and a defense all playing their best at the end.
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Pack93z on 10/9/2012(UTC)
Offline play2win  
#32 Posted : Monday, October 8, 2012 1:43:07 PM(UTC)
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zombieslayer said: Go to Quoted Post
You're absolutely right and I'm absolutely wrong. Last year's SB winner was the Giants who were ranked 32 out of 32 in running. the year before it was the Packers who were ranked 24 out of 32 in rushing. Before that, the Saints who were 6 out of 32 in rushing. Before that, it was the Steelers who were 23 out of 32 in rushing.

What do those teams have in common? All those teams led the NFL in rushing.

Well, there you go. There's our problem. Screw the pass. Let's lead the NFL in rushing so we can win the SB. :-k




Sarcasm aside, the key to winning a game is Passer Rating Differential. You can read all about the correlation here:
http://www.coldhardfootb...ts.com/stats/2012/5/PRD/

Dexter_Sinister wrote up a really nice article last year about it and how it correlated with Super Bowl wins historically.

As for correlation between rushing success and winning, there is NONE WHATSOEVER. I checked the stats. It had as much correlation as how many times a Vikings fan picks his nose vs how successful people in the East Coast are at catching salmon.


zombie, c'mon man! You can't use stats like that when Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were hurt most of the season. They both came back and were a big part of their run to winning the SB after their team went 9-7 regular season. They totaled 26 carries for 110 yds v. NE to win it all. For NE, conversely, Green-Ellis had just 10 carries for 44 yds. Welker had 2 carries for 21.

Go on believing we don't need 20+ carries per game to win. Whatever. I disagree.

Division leaders and NFL ranking rushing:

NE #3
BAL #13
HOU #7 (with a game yet to play tonight)
SD #16
(Tie) NYG #12 PHI #10
(Tie) CHI #11 and MIN #9
ATL #21
(Tie) SF #1 and AZ #31

We rank #20 overall. Oddly enough, both ATL and AZ have more attempts than we do (ranking #18 and 20 to our #22), helping to keep the opposing D honest. Take away Rodgers' scrambles and I would bet we are nearer to the bottom of the NFL.

Passer Rating Differential??? You don't think that has something to do with rushing to keep opposing defenses honest? I sure do.
Offline zombieslayer  
#33 Posted : Monday, October 8, 2012 2:19:32 PM(UTC)
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As my research said, you still have to run the ball. Yes. That much we agree on.

However, you don't have to be good at it.

So yes, you should have rushing attempts. But as unintuitive as this sounds, the total yards don't matter.
Offline macbob  
#34 Posted : Monday, October 8, 2012 2:43:34 PM(UTC)
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zombieslayer said: Go to Quoted Post
As my research said, you still have to run the ball. Yes. That much we agree on.

However, you don't have to be good at it.

So yes, you should have rushing attempts. But as unintuitive as this sounds, the total yards don't matter.


Agree with what you said 99%--total yards aren't as important as rushing attempts, but I wouldn't say total yards don't matter.

The more success you have running the ball the more you'll distract the D from your passing game. If you're running it for 40 yds you'll get their attention a little more than if you're running it for -2, -4 per carry...
Offline Porforis  
#35 Posted : Monday, October 8, 2012 3:39:49 PM(UTC)
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macbob said: Go to Quoted Post
Agree with what you said 99%--total yards aren't as important as rushing attempts, but I wouldn't say total yards don't matter.

The more success you have running the ball the more you'll distract the D from your passing game. If you're running it for 40 yds you'll get their attention a little more than if you're running it for -2, -4 per carry...


They need to respect the run. If you're only getting 1, 2 yards per carry when they're loading up the box, oh well. If they're in nickel or dime and you can't run it for more than 2 or 3 on a regular basis, they don't NEED to respect it. You don't need to be great at the run, just okay. And in order to do that on a regular basis, you need to run it more than a dozen times per game.
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nerdmann on 10/8/2012(UTC)
Offline zombieslayer  
#36 Posted : Monday, October 8, 2012 3:44:53 PM(UTC)
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Porforis said: Go to Quoted Post
They need to respect the run. If you're only getting 1, 2 yards per carry when they're loading up the box, oh well. If they're in nickel or dime and you can't run it for more than 2 or 3 on a regular basis, they don't NEED to respect it. You don't need to be great at the run, just okay. And in order to do that on a regular basis, you need to run it more than a dozen times per game.


That's the weird thing is you don't even have to be OK. You just have to run the ball.

You could actually have a mediocre rushing attack and win it all. Has happened time and time again.

That's why I used the word "unintuitive." You'd think by the way I'm worded the last thing I said that I'd be smoking crack, but my research shows otherwise. You only need attempts. Yards really don't matter.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#37 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 5:33:23 AM(UTC)
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zombieslayer said: Go to Quoted Post
You only need attempts. Yards really don't matter.


This goes along what Shawn and I have been trying to get through to you for a couple years now. The attempts are what keeps a defense honest. A solid 60/40 pass/run ratio is very good for an offense as it opens up a lot of opportunities. Right now the Packers are being manhandled by a two high safety scheme because they are not worried about the second level being reached by a RB or a slant pass.

I'd rather see James Starks than Alex Green running the ball, even though Green has the potential to break one, he's often stuffed at the line for a loss. Starks nearly always gains at least a yard or two.

Until this team figures out how to be more balanced offensively and the QB drops his ego and takes the 5 yard easy out over the 25 yarder into double coverage ... mediocre is all we'll see.
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play2win on 10/9/2012(UTC)
Offline play2win  
#38 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 5:49:03 AM(UTC)
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Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
This goes along what Shawn and I have been trying to get through to you for a couple years now. The attempts are what keeps a defense honest. A solid 60/40 pass/run ratio is very good for an offense as it opens up a lot of opportunities. Right now the Packers are being manhandled by a two high safety scheme because they are not worried about the second level being reached by a RB or a slant pass.

I'd rather see James Starks than Alex Green running the ball, even though Green has the potential to break one, he's often stuffed at the line for a loss. Starks nearly always gains at least a yard or two.

Until this team figures out how to be more balanced offensively and the QB drops his ego and takes the 5 yard easy out over the 25 yarder into double coverage ... mediocre is all we'll see.


I wish I could applaud twice!

I realize rule changes have made it much easier to pass in today's NFL, but that doesn't mean you throw out the basic tenants of the game.

Pound the fricken football +25 attempts by your RBs (QB scrambles don't count here) and I would say we win 9 out of 10 games. Especially with what that does to a defense, against our passing game. Without it, we clearly see we have no passing game.

Really simple stuff.
Offline Porforis  
#39 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 6:17:29 AM(UTC)
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I'm not saying that it's false, but multiple people keep saying that all you need to do is run the ball, yards don't matter a lick and that it's unintuitive but true. I see people dropping stats about poor rushing teams winning big, but does anybody have some examples of truly ineffective rushing teams (< 3 YPC) being successful? It's definitely unintuitive but I'm no more of an expert than anyone else here (and less of an expert than many), I'd just like a more in-depth explanation of WHY it works with some specific examples.

For example, if you're averaging 2 YPC 8 games in, why wouldn't an opposing defense want to play with an emphasis on passing every down unless it's an obvious running situation? Focus on nullifying your opponent's strengths, not their weaknesses. Yeah, if they're running it 20-25 times a game they might average 3-4 a carry if you don't respect the run but let them try to beat you on the ground and shut them down through the air. 75-100 yards on the ground isn't going to kill you if they're ineffective passing the ball and get minimal benefit from running the play action.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#40 Posted : Tuesday, October 9, 2012 6:35:09 AM(UTC)
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Porforis said: Go to Quoted Post
I'm not saying that it's false, but multiple people keep saying that all you need to do is run the ball, yards don't matter a lick and that it's unintuitive but true.


I had to stop reading here to clarify this. No one is saying yards mean nothing at all. What is being said is you don't need an elite (Adrian Peterson) RB to keep the defense honest. You need attempts, attempts that garner positive yardage. Even if you get 2 yards per attempt, that changes 1st and 10 to 2nd and 8 or 2nd and 6 to 3rd and 4.

Ideally you want a running back who gets 4 yards per attempt, never fumbles and has very sound protection while being above average at receiving out of the backfield.

JAMES STARKS WILL BE THAT GUY!!


:-"
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