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MintBaconDrivel  
#1 Posted : Tuesday, June 4, 2013 9:25:20 AM(UTC)
JerseyAl said:
Football is the ultimate team sport, so crediting just one player for a win in the NFL is foolish. But in the divisional round of last year's NFC Playoffs, the Green Bay Packers fell victim to a dominant performance by 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick. In his first career playoff sart, the second-year quarterback put up [...]
beast  
#2 Posted : Tuesday, June 4, 2013 10:42:24 AM(UTC)


Something I think is over looked in that 49ers game... even when they did stop the run game (which wasn't often) they couldn't stop WR Crabtree. The others weren't as big of a problem. But they couldn't stop Crabtree was annoying and it seemed like he kept running one of three routes and kept picking up 1st downs where they needed to pass it.

play2win  
#3 Posted : Wednesday, June 5, 2013 6:54:49 AM(UTC)
Kaepernick and Crabtree had a phenomenal completion percentage working together, something over 80% if I recall what I had read correctly. Meanwhile, Kaepernick's completion percentage with his other receivers was far, far below that, somewhere in the 30-40% range. Crabtree's injury will be a big loss for them, yet, they wound up signing one of the toughest WRs in the NFL in Anquan Boldin. I wouldn't look for too much drop off there...

What we do have going for us is the staff refresher on how to defend the option read, the pistol, and new players added specifically to help defend it. This is going to make for an interesting rematch on Sunday, Sept. 8th in SF. Tough way to have to start out the 2013 season playing SF on their home turf, but the competition cannot get any better. No way Kaepernick gets 14 yds per carry this time around.

Our TOP DEFENDER will have to be Mike McCarthy, running a ball control offensive game play that chews up minutes and keeps Kaepernick on the sidelines. We are going to have to be tough, efficient, and patient on offense, putting up a lot of scores. Hopefully this turns out to be one hell of a coming out party for both Lacy and Franklin.

It will be interesting to see how adding help on the DL (Datone Jones, Josh Boyd and Johnny Jolly if he makes it that far) and having Nick Perry back will affect the play of our secondary, a secondary with another year's experience on them and very talented in takeaways. I like our defenders quite a lot, but many are still untested. This will be THE test to start the season.
nerdmann  
#4 Posted : Wednesday, June 5, 2013 5:11:28 PM(UTC)
play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
Kaepernick and Crabtree had a phenomenal completion percentage working together, something over 80% if I recall what I had read correctly. Meanwhile, Kaepernick's completion percentage with his other receivers was far, far below that, somewhere in the 30-40% range. Crabtree's injury will be a big loss for them, yet, they wound up signing one of the toughest WRs in the NFL in Anquan Boldin. I wouldn't look for too much drop off there...

What we do have going for us is the staff refresher on how to defend the option read, the pistol, and new players added specifically to help defend it. This is going to make for an interesting rematch on Sunday, Sept. 8th in SF. Tough way to have to start out the 2013 season playing SF on their home turf, but the competition cannot get any better. No way Kaepernick gets 14 yds per carry this time around.

Our TOP DEFENDER will have to be Mike McCarthy, running a ball control offensive game play that chews up minutes and keeps Kaepernick on the sidelines. We are going to have to be tough, efficient, and patient on offense, putting up a lot of scores. Hopefully this turns out to be one hell of a coming out party for both Lacy and Franklin.

It will be interesting to see how adding help on the DL (Datone Jones, Josh Boyd and Johnny Jolly if he makes it that far) and having Nick Perry back will affect the play of our secondary, a secondary with another year's experience on them and very talented in takeaways. I like our defenders quite a lot, but many are still untested. This will be THE test to start the season.


How many people here believe Mike is willing to run a ball control offense to chew up minutes and keep Kaepernick on the sidelines?
play2win  
#5 Posted : Thursday, June 6, 2013 5:49:44 AM(UTC)
I would say few, if any. But, drafting Lacy AND Franklin may have forced the issue. Those are potent weapons Mike now has at his disposal, and I would think he would welcome this change, employing his new toys into his game plan. We won't know till the season starts.

Yesterday in his presser on day 2 of minicamp, he went out of his way to say "of course, we have to run the ball," in discussing Cobb possibly reaching 100 catches. I thought that was a remarkable, unsolicited statement that would have been unheard of from him 2 years ago.

We will see...
Zero2Cool  
#6 Posted : Thursday, June 6, 2013 6:24:27 AM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
How many people here believe Mike is willing to run a ball control offense to chew up minutes and keep Kaepernick on the sidelines?


Confused

Mike McCarthy said:
You have to score as many points as you can. . . . I don’t play keep away. I want to play as fast as we can, throw as many punches as we can and beat you as bad as we can.
play2win  
#7 Posted : Thursday, June 6, 2013 7:01:48 AM(UTC)
Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
Confused



Yeah, I saw that too. That was the only thing that had me a bit concerned. Is McCarthy an offensive football genius, or a stubborn meathead who cannot get out of his own way?

The last two seasons, it took him nearly half a season to actually employ the running game into his play calling, often times giving up on it entirely if he got down early by a score or two. Add to that his comments in 2011 stating that he didn't need to run the ball... and, those comments were offered when being pressed on "why?" he was not running the ball... clearly there was an issue there for the questions to have been posed.

Again, we'll see when the rubber meets the road in the regular season.
nerdmann  
#8 Posted : Thursday, June 6, 2013 11:53:24 AM(UTC)
play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
I would say few, if any. But, drafting Lacy AND Franklin may have forced the issue. Those are potent weapons Mike now has at his disposal, and I would think he would welcome this change, employing his new toys into his game plan. We won't know till the season starts.

Yesterday in his presser on day 2 of minicamp, he went out of his way to say "of course, we have to run the ball," in discussing Cobb possibly reaching 100 catches. I thought that was a remarkable, unsolicited statement that would have been unheard of from him 2 years ago.

We will see...


The running game's sole function is to draw the safeties up, so Aaron can keep throwing deep.
DoddPower  
#9 Posted : Thursday, June 6, 2013 1:35:51 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
The running game's sole function is to draw the safeties up, so Aaron can keep throwing deep.


Again, this is obviously a direct quote, because you would never twist anyone's words to fit your own perception. [duh] [duh]

nerdmann  
#10 Posted : Thursday, June 6, 2013 1:47:25 PM(UTC)
doddpower said: Go to Quoted Post
Again, this is obviously a direct quote, because you would never twist anyone's words to fit your own perception. [duh] [duh]



Don't need to.
DoddPower  
#11 Posted : Thursday, June 6, 2013 2:57:13 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
Don't need to.


True, because what you said is so obviously a factoid.
MintBaconDrivel  
#12 Posted : Friday, June 7, 2013 12:04:21 PM(UTC)
Packers said:
GREEN BAY—It was one of the worst, maybe the worst, game of Dom Capers’ coaching life. Nobody does that to a Capers-coached defense, but the 49ers were doing it. They were hanging 579 yards on th...
nerdmann  
#13 Posted : Friday, June 7, 2013 1:14:30 PM(UTC)
Vic Ketchman? Really?

No credibility whatsoever. Or style, for that matter.
Dexter_Sinister  
#14 Posted : Friday, June 7, 2013 7:54:02 PM(UTC)
i ran a correlation between winning % and TOP.


There isn't any. The graph looked like a shotgun pattern.


It is a complete myth. It only sounds logical. In reality, it has no effect.


Time of possession is not directly tied to points. If you hold the ball for 7 minutes and throw a pick 6, then hold the ball for 7 minutes and punt, to have it run back for a TD, you are up 14-0 on the clock and down 14-0 on the score board.

If you have long drawn out drives of 10 or more plays, there are more chances to screw up and give the ball away before you score.

If you have a quick strike offense, your opponent still has to score to keep up with you. If you score fast but every time you touch the ball, they have to do more than burn clock. They have to actually put up points.

It doesn't matter how long it takes you to score as long as you do.
nerdmann  
#15 Posted : Friday, June 7, 2013 8:05:22 PM(UTC)
Dexter_Sinister said: Go to Quoted Post
i ran a correlation between winning % and TOP.


There isn't any. The graph looked like a shotgun pattern.


It is a complete myth. It only sounds logical. In reality, it has no effect.


Time of possession is not directly tied to points. If you hold the ball for 7 minutes and throw a pick 6, then hold the ball for 7 minutes and punt, to have it run back for a TD, you are up 14-0 on the clock and down 14-0 on the score board.

If you have long drawn out drives of 10 or more plays, there are more chances to screw up and give the ball away before you score.

If you have a quick strike offense, your opponent still has to score to keep up with you. If you score fast but every time you touch the ball, they have to do more than burn clock. They have to actually put up points.

It doesn't matter how long it takes you to score as long as you do.


Not all teams run the WCO. They may not be concerned about ToP.

I think the biggest correlation in winning is having good players. We have that. I'm not worrred about successfully completing high percentage plays.

What I don't like is 3 and outs, which result from not connecting on low percentage plays. A "quick strike" offense is great. But those long passing plays are low percentage. Granted, there is some favoritism there based upon the ridiculous DPI rules.

I'm not saying we can't win using Mike's system. I just don't think it's time tested, or proven at all.
Dexter_Sinister  
#16 Posted : Saturday, June 8, 2013 10:17:37 PM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
Not all teams run the WCO. They may not be concerned about ToP.

I think the biggest correlation in winning is having good players. We have that. I'm not worrred about successfully completing high percentage plays.

What I don't like is 3 and outs, which result from not connecting on low percentage plays. A "quick strike" offense is great. But those long passing plays are low percentage. Granted, there is some favoritism there based upon the ridiculous DPI rules.

I'm not saying we can't win using Mike's system. I just don't think it's time tested, or proven at all.


Best offense in the league 2 years running.

In 5 years, Rodgers has the highest career rating, the highest single season rating and the second highest post season rating in the history of the NFL.

11-5, 10-6, 15-1 and 11-5.

I think the offense works.

The packers are pretty good at converting on 3rd down.
nerdmann  
#17 Posted : Saturday, June 8, 2013 10:35:37 PM(UTC)
Dexter_Sinister said: Go to Quoted Post
Best offense in the league 2 years running.

In 5 years, Rodgers has the highest career rating, the highest single season rating and the second highest post season rating in the history of the NFL.

11-5, 10-6, 15-1 and 11-5.

I think the offense works.

The packers are pretty good at converting on 3rd down.


The Packers will be better at converting on third down this year, because they will not have to rely on Kuhn.

And I take it you're measuring the performance of the offense against statistics right? Because that is the main thing about which Mike and Aaron are concerned. So yeah, they have great stats.

Once again we got off to a shitty start by abandoning the running game and trying to sling it deep constantly.

Not saying it won't work either. But if it does, it's due more to Ted than Mike.
steveishere  
#18 Posted : Sunday, June 9, 2013 2:16:17 AM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
Not all teams run the WCO. They may not be concerned about ToP.

I think the biggest correlation in winning is having good players. We have that. I'm not worrred about successfully completing high percentage plays.

What I don't like is 3 and outs, which result from not connecting on low percentage plays. A "quick strike" offense is great. But those long passing plays are low percentage. Granted, there is some favoritism there based upon the ridiculous DPI rules.

I'm not saying we can't win using Mike's system. I just don't think it's time tested, or proven at all.


The last 7 Superbowl winning teams threw long passing plays at a similar or higher percentage than the Packers have the last couple of years. I'd say as far as recent history is concerned that's pretty proven.
Dexter_Sinister  
#19 Posted : Sunday, June 9, 2013 9:49:14 AM(UTC)
nerdmann said: Go to Quoted Post
The Packers will be better at converting on third down this year, because they will not have to rely on Kuhn.

And I take it you're measuring the performance of the offense against statistics right? Because that is the main thing about which Mike and Aaron are concerned. So yeah, they have great stats.

Once again we got off to a shitty start by abandoning the running game and trying to sling it deep constantly.

Not saying it won't work either. But if it does, it's due more to Ted than Mike.


11-5, 10-6, 15-1 and 11-5.

I think the offense works.

They got off to a shitty start because they lost Benson and Saine while Starks was on PUP. Green was not ready to come back from knee reconstruction yet because his HGH dealer was sold out to APs Doc.

Even then they were average in number of rushing attempts.

After Harris showed up, they were top 5 in rushing attempts.

The assertion that they don't like to run the ball is a myth.

The only thing they needed to have a better running game was any healthy backs. Which they didn't really have.

Dexter_Sinister  
#20 Posted : Sunday, June 9, 2013 9:55:33 AM(UTC)
If having the highest passer rating differential means you have the best chance to win, you can bet your whiney ass that the teams that win the most are going to be concerned with that stat.

Put your effort into what gives you the best chance to win.

The stats themselves are not important. What they mean is.

There is an enormous difference. One that I think Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson understand. They are not concerned about putting up stats, they are concerned with doing the things that will increase the right stats.

Because if you do, your chances of winning go up.

It is completely different. If you think it is the same thing, you don't know what the stats mean.
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