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Offline Zero2Cool  
#1 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 4:49:45 AM(UTC)
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I had this same thought for a few years.

Michael David Smith said:
Packers General Manager Ted Thompson has a formula for building his team, and he’s sticking with it.

Thompson believes in building through the draft, not free agency, and that includes acquiring more draft picks by declining to sign unrestricted free agents. In the NFL, teams that lose more in free agency than they acquire get compensatory picks, and the Packers’ moves in free agency this year indicate that they’re already thinking about acquiring compensatory picks for next year. The NFL doesn’t public the precise formula used to determine compensatory picks, but the simple version is that if the unrestricted free agents you lose are better, higher-paid players than the unrestricted free agents you sign, then the NFL will compensate you the following year with compensatory picks.

As the Green Bay Press-Gazette points out, even the one big name the Packers have signed this offseason, Julius Peppers, was a free agent because he was released by the Bears, not because his previous contract expired. That means he won’t count as an unrestricted free agent addition for the Packers for the purpose of determining their compensatory picks next year.


SNIPPED


Building through the draft and declining to overspend in free agency would be a smart strategy even if the NFL didn’t have a compensatory pick system to reward frugal teams. But when compensatory picks are added to the equation, it’s easy to see why Thompson declines to go after free agents. The Packers have been successful this way. It’s surprising more teams haven’t copied them.




"In fact, it’s been 733 days since Thompson last signed an unrestricted free agent. You have to go back to the signing of Anthony Hargrove on March 30, 2012 for the most recent. The signing of center Jeff Saturday two weeks earlier is Thompson's only other unrestricted pickup in the last five years."
Offline wpr  
#2 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 8:31:13 AM(UTC)
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Is Michael David Smith some kind of psychic? I have never heard of this approach before.
Offline play2win  
#3 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 9:12:35 AM(UTC)
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2006 OT Tony Moll, DE Dave Tollefson

2007 TE Clark Harris

2008 OG Josh Sitton

2009 None

2010 OT Marshall Newhouse

2011 CB Davon House

2012 DT Mike Daniels, S Jerron McMillian, OT Andrew Datko, QB BJ Coleman

2013 NT Josh Boyd

That's 11 compensatory picks. 2 are top players for us in Sitton and Daniels. 2 more have the potential to contribute in House and Boyd. 7 are no longer part of this team and made little to no impact, with the exception of Newhouse who filled in nicely for Bulaga in 2011, then faded.

I think this calls into question just how "successful" Ted has been with this. It could be argued he might be better off diving into FA and landing more top talents. Factoring in just Sitton and Daniels, he is only hitting on around 18% of his comp picks making key contributions. Is that good?
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Offline Zero2Cool  
#4 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 9:29:25 AM(UTC)
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play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
I think this calls into question just how "successful" Ted has been with this. It could be argued he might be better off diving into FA and landing more top talents. Factoring in just Sitton and Daniels, he is only hitting on around 18% of his comp picks making key contributions. Is that good?


Who has been more successful in their tenure as GM? What if other GM's are hitting on around 3%?
Offline play2win  
#5 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 10:09:23 AM(UTC)
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Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
Who has been more successful in their tenure as GM? What if other GM's are hitting on around 3%?


Well, I can give you that, and we don't know what those figures actually are. But, the real question is comp picks vs. the UFA market. 7 out of 11 of those picks are not on this team and contributed little to nothing while with us.

I like Ted Thompson, quite a lot. I feel we are all pretty fortunate to have a GM like him running our team. But, I can see where there might be some misgivings and some mistakes made along the way. All GMs make mistakes. They are only human. The one glaring mistake I've seen him make is to hold to this draft and develop philosophy with such rigidity. I happen to believe a more balanced approach may be beneficial. At the same time, he has done a remarkable job in managing our salary cap. Imagine if he had signed one significant player in UFA every couple of years or so. It could make a difference.

Something tells me if we had signed 4 solid UFAs over the past 8 years we might have seen some better overall results. That's just fewer comp picks than the 11 we obtained... of whom more than 80% of them contributed little to nothing. Who knows? Six of one, half a dozen of the other.

No matter. Ted will run things as he sees fit, and I am just glad he signed a couple of players this year. That Peppers signing seems to have taken a bit of the edge off going into this draft in terms of our overall team needs. Maybe there might be another before all is said and done this offseason.

And, I'm glad to have the 2 comp picks we have this year, though I might have been happier landing Jairus Byrd and just one comp pick!
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User is suspended until 4/29/2043 11:56:55 PM(UTC) texaspackerbacker  
#6 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 10:12:57 AM(UTC)
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Zero2Cool said: Go to Quoted Post
I had this same thought for a few years.





"In fact, it’s been 733 days since Thompson last signed an unrestricted free agent. You have to go back to the signing of Anthony Hargrove on March 30, 2012 for the most recent. The signing of center Jeff Saturday two weeks earlier is Thompson's only other unrestricted pickup in the last five years."


I don't understand the 733 days. Isn't Peppers an unrestricted free agent? Do they mean until him? It seems like there were a couple of others too, although I can't think of names.

Offline sschind  
#7 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 12:07:14 PM(UTC)
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texaspackerbacker said: Go to Quoted Post
I don't understand the 733 days. Isn't Peppers an unrestricted free agent? Do they mean until him? It seems like there were a couple of others too, although I can't think of names.



I think they are talking about URFAs that count towards the compensatory pick formula. Guys who were under contract with a team the year before and their contract ran out. Not players who were cut by their previous team like Peppers was. Yeah, he was an URFA but his contract did not run out.

Offline steveishere  
#8 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 12:41:59 PM(UTC)
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Baltimore does the same thing pretty much.
Offline steveishere  
#9 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 12:44:08 PM(UTC)
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play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
Well, I can give you that, and we don't know what those figures actually are. But, the real question is comp picks vs. the UFA market. 7 out of 11 of those picks are not on this team and contributed little to nothing while with us.

I like Ted Thompson, quite a lot. I feel we are all pretty fortunate to have a GM like him running our team. But, I can see where there might be some misgivings and some mistakes made along the way. All GMs make mistakes. They are only human. The one glaring mistake I've seen him make is to hold to this draft and develop philosophy with such rigidity. I happen to believe a more balanced approach may be beneficial. At the same time, he has done a remarkable job in managing our salary cap. Imagine if he had signed one significant player in UFA every couple of years or so. It could make a difference.

Something tells me if we had signed 4 solid UFAs over the past 8 years we might have seen some better overall results. That's just fewer comp picks than the 11 we obtained... of whom more than 80% of them contributed little to nothing. Who knows? Six of one, half a dozen of the other.

No matter. Ted will run things as he sees fit, and I am just glad he signed a couple of players this year. That Peppers signing seems to have taken a bit of the edge off going into this draft in terms of our overall team needs. Maybe there might be another before all is said and done this offseason.

And, I'm glad to have the 2 comp picks we have this year, though I might have been happier landing Jairus Byrd and just one comp pick!


Signing Byrd wouldn't have effected this years comp picks it would effect next years.
Offline wpr  
#10 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 3:33:58 PM(UTC)
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play2win said: Go to Quoted Post
Well, I can give you that, and we don't know what those figures actually are. But, the real question is comp picks vs. the UFA market. 7 out of 11 of those picks are not on this team and contributed little to nothing while with us.

I like Ted Thompson, quite a lot. I feel we are all pretty fortunate to have a GM like him running our team. But, I can see where there might be some misgivings and some mistakes made along the way. All GMs make mistakes. They are only human. The one glaring mistake I've seen him make is to hold to this draft and develop philosophy with such rigidity. I happen to believe a more balanced approach may be beneficial. At the same time, he has done a remarkable job in managing our salary cap. Imagine if he had signed one significant player in UFA every couple of years or so. It could make a difference.

Something tells me if we had signed 4 solid UFAs over the past 8 years we might have seen some better overall results. That's just fewer comp picks than the 11 we obtained... of whom more than 80% of them contributed little to nothing. Who knows? Six of one, half a dozen of the other.

No matter. Ted will run things as he sees fit, and I am just glad he signed a couple of players this year. That Peppers signing seems to have taken a bit of the edge off going into this draft in terms of our overall team needs. Maybe there might be another before all is said and done this offseason.

And, I'm glad to have the 2 comp picks we have this year, though I might have been happier landing Jairus Byrd and just one comp pick!



I too like Uncle Ted. He knows how to evaluate players.

His one sided approach to building a team reminds me of a small market MLB team instead of the NFL with more revenue sharing and more strict salary minimum and maximums.
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