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Offline Zero2Cool  
#1 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 4:49:45 AM(UTC)
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I had this same thought for a few years.

Michael David Smith wrote:
Packers General Manager Ted Thompson has a formula for building his team, and he’s sticking with it.

Thompson believes in building through the draft, not free agency, and that includes acquiring more draft picks by declining to sign unrestricted free agents. In the NFL, teams that lose more in free agency than they acquire get compensatory picks, and the Packers’ moves in free agency this year indicate that they’re already thinking about acquiring compensatory picks for next year. The NFL doesn’t public the precise formula used to determine compensatory picks, but the simple version is that if the unrestricted free agents you lose are better, higher-paid players than the unrestricted free agents you sign, then the NFL will compensate you the following year with compensatory picks.

As the Green Bay Press-Gazette points out, even the one big name the Packers have signed this offseason, Julius Peppers, was a free agent because he was released by the Bears, not because his previous contract expired. That means he won’t count as an unrestricted free agent addition for the Packers for the purpose of determining their compensatory picks next year.


SNIPPED


Building through the draft and declining to overspend in free agency would be a smart strategy even if the NFL didn’t have a compensatory pick system to reward frugal teams. But when compensatory picks are added to the equation, it’s easy to see why Thompson declines to go after free agents. The Packers have been successful this way. It’s surprising more teams haven’t copied them.




"In fact, it’s been 733 days since Thompson last signed an unrestricted free agent. You have to go back to the signing of Anthony Hargrove on March 30, 2012 for the most recent. The signing of center Jeff Saturday two weeks earlier is Thompson's only other unrestricted pickup in the last five years."
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Offline wpr  
#2 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 8:31:13 AM(UTC)
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Is Michael David Smith some kind of psychic? I have never heard of this approach before.

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Offline play2win  
#3 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 9:12:35 AM(UTC)
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2006 OT Tony Moll, DE Dave Tollefson

2007 TE Clark Harris

2008 OG Josh Sitton

2009 None

2010 OT Marshall Newhouse

2011 CB Davon House

2012 DT Mike Daniels, S Jerron McMillian, OT Andrew Datko, QB BJ Coleman

2013 NT Josh Boyd

That's 11 compensatory picks. 2 are top players for us in Sitton and Daniels. 2 more have the potential to contribute in House and Boyd. 7 are no longer part of this team and made little to no impact, with the exception of Newhouse who filled in nicely for Bulaga in 2011, then faded.

I think this calls into question just how "successful" Ted has been with this. It could be argued he might be better off diving into FA and landing more top talents. Factoring in just Sitton and Daniels, he is only hitting on around 18% of his comp picks making key contributions. Is that good?
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Offline Zero2Cool  
#4 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 9:29:25 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
I think this calls into question just how "successful" Ted has been with this. It could be argued he might be better off diving into FA and landing more top talents. Factoring in just Sitton and Daniels, he is only hitting on around 18% of his comp picks making key contributions. Is that good?


Who has been more successful in their tenure as GM? What if other GM's are hitting on around 3%?
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Offline play2win  
#5 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 10:09:23 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool Go to Quoted Post
Who has been more successful in their tenure as GM? What if other GM's are hitting on around 3%?


Well, I can give you that, and we don't know what those figures actually are. But, the real question is comp picks vs. the UFA market. 7 out of 11 of those picks are not on this team and contributed little to nothing while with us.

I like Ted Thompson, quite a lot. I feel we are all pretty fortunate to have a GM like him running our team. But, I can see where there might be some misgivings and some mistakes made along the way. All GMs make mistakes. They are only human. The one glaring mistake I've seen him make is to hold to this draft and develop philosophy with such rigidity. I happen to believe a more balanced approach may be beneficial. At the same time, he has done a remarkable job in managing our salary cap. Imagine if he had signed one significant player in UFA every couple of years or so. It could make a difference.

Something tells me if we had signed 4 solid UFAs over the past 8 years we might have seen some better overall results. That's just fewer comp picks than the 11 we obtained... of whom more than 80% of them contributed little to nothing. Who knows? Six of one, half a dozen of the other.

No matter. Ted will run things as he sees fit, and I am just glad he signed a couple of players this year. That Peppers signing seems to have taken a bit of the edge off going into this draft in terms of our overall team needs. Maybe there might be another before all is said and done this offseason.

And, I'm glad to have the 2 comp picks we have this year, though I might have been happier landing Jairus Byrd and just one comp pick!
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wpr on 4/3/2014(UTC)
Online texaspackerbacker  
#6 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 10:12:57 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool Go to Quoted Post
I had this same thought for a few years.





"In fact, it’s been 733 days since Thompson last signed an unrestricted free agent. You have to go back to the signing of Anthony Hargrove on March 30, 2012 for the most recent. The signing of center Jeff Saturday two weeks earlier is Thompson's only other unrestricted pickup in the last five years."


I don't understand the 733 days. Isn't Peppers an unrestricted free agent? Do they mean until him? It seems like there were a couple of others too, although I can't think of names.

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Online sschind  
#7 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 12:07:14 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: texaspackerbacker Go to Quoted Post
I don't understand the 733 days. Isn't Peppers an unrestricted free agent? Do they mean until him? It seems like there were a couple of others too, although I can't think of names.



I think they are talking about URFAs that count towards the compensatory pick formula. Guys who were under contract with a team the year before and their contract ran out. Not players who were cut by their previous team like Peppers was. Yeah, he was an URFA but his contract did not run out.

I respect your right to have your opinion but that doesn't mean I agree with it or respect you for having it.
Offline steveishere  
#8 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 12:41:59 PM(UTC)
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Baltimore does the same thing pretty much.
Offline steveishere  
#9 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 12:44:08 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
Well, I can give you that, and we don't know what those figures actually are. But, the real question is comp picks vs. the UFA market. 7 out of 11 of those picks are not on this team and contributed little to nothing while with us.

I like Ted Thompson, quite a lot. I feel we are all pretty fortunate to have a GM like him running our team. But, I can see where there might be some misgivings and some mistakes made along the way. All GMs make mistakes. They are only human. The one glaring mistake I've seen him make is to hold to this draft and develop philosophy with such rigidity. I happen to believe a more balanced approach may be beneficial. At the same time, he has done a remarkable job in managing our salary cap. Imagine if he had signed one significant player in UFA every couple of years or so. It could make a difference.

Something tells me if we had signed 4 solid UFAs over the past 8 years we might have seen some better overall results. That's just fewer comp picks than the 11 we obtained... of whom more than 80% of them contributed little to nothing. Who knows? Six of one, half a dozen of the other.

No matter. Ted will run things as he sees fit, and I am just glad he signed a couple of players this year. That Peppers signing seems to have taken a bit of the edge off going into this draft in terms of our overall team needs. Maybe there might be another before all is said and done this offseason.

And, I'm glad to have the 2 comp picks we have this year, though I might have been happier landing Jairus Byrd and just one comp pick!


Signing Byrd wouldn't have effected this years comp picks it would effect next years.
Offline wpr  
#10 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 3:33:58 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
Well, I can give you that, and we don't know what those figures actually are. But, the real question is comp picks vs. the UFA market. 7 out of 11 of those picks are not on this team and contributed little to nothing while with us.

I like Ted Thompson, quite a lot. I feel we are all pretty fortunate to have a GM like him running our team. But, I can see where there might be some misgivings and some mistakes made along the way. All GMs make mistakes. They are only human. The one glaring mistake I've seen him make is to hold to this draft and develop philosophy with such rigidity. I happen to believe a more balanced approach may be beneficial. At the same time, he has done a remarkable job in managing our salary cap. Imagine if he had signed one significant player in UFA every couple of years or so. It could make a difference.

Something tells me if we had signed 4 solid UFAs over the past 8 years we might have seen some better overall results. That's just fewer comp picks than the 11 we obtained... of whom more than 80% of them contributed little to nothing. Who knows? Six of one, half a dozen of the other.

No matter. Ted will run things as he sees fit, and I am just glad he signed a couple of players this year. That Peppers signing seems to have taken a bit of the edge off going into this draft in terms of our overall team needs. Maybe there might be another before all is said and done this offseason.

And, I'm glad to have the 2 comp picks we have this year, though I might have been happier landing Jairus Byrd and just one comp pick!



I too like Uncle Ted. He knows how to evaluate players.

His one sided approach to building a team reminds me of a small market MLB team instead of the NFL with more revenue sharing and more strict salary minimum and maximums.

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Offline musccy  
#11 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 4:17:44 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: wpr Go to Quoted Post


His one sided approach to building a team reminds me of a small market MLB team instead of the NFL with more revenue sharing and more strict salary minimum and maximums.


I think I was reading Vic Ketchman's articles once and he alluded to the fact that it's a tough sell to get a guy to want to come to GB with it's freezing winters, small market which hinders a player's "branding", plus you have income taxes in WI. All of these factors lead to the Packers often having to outbid other teams, and thus overpay for a player something Ted rarely does to begin with. For these reasons, in essence the Packers are a small market team.
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Offline wpr  
#12 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 4:28:40 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: musccy Go to Quoted Post
I think I was reading Vic Ketchman's articles once and he alluded to the fact that it's a tough sell to get a guy to want to come to GB with it's freezing winters, small market which hinders a player's "branding", plus you have income taxes in WI. All of these factors lead to the Packers often having to outbid other teams, and thus overpay for a player something Ted rarely does to begin with. For these reasons, in essence the Packers are a small market team.


Yes those are defiantly factors. Without getting too deep into race issues, I was reading way back in the 80's that the lack of an urban life was a real deterrent. Things as simple as getting a good haircut were a problem.

When Reggie came players lined up to play with him. Others wanted to play alongside Brett. Too bad they don' have that same kind of draw these days.

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Offline PackFanWithTwins  
#13 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 5:28:41 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
2006 OT Tony Moll, DE Dave Tollefson

2007 TE Clark Harris

2008 OG Josh Sitton

2009 None

2010 OT Marshall Newhouse

2011 CB Davon House

2012 DT Mike Daniels, S Jerron McMillian, OT Andrew Datko, QB BJ Coleman

2013 NT Josh Boyd

That's 11 compensatory picks. 2 are top players for us in Sitton and Daniels. 2 more have the potential to contribute in House and Boyd. 7 are no longer part of this team and made little to no impact, with the exception of Newhouse who filled in nicely for Bulaga in 2011, then faded.

I think this calls into question just how "successful" Ted has been with this. It could be argued he might be better off diving into FA and landing more top talents. Factoring in just Sitton and Daniels, he is only hitting on around 18% of his comp picks making key contributions. Is that good?


It is normally considered a pretty successful draft if 3 players end up being starters and contributors. Wolf's best draft was probably 2000 when he got 4 players.

If you consider what a UFA equal to Sitton would cost, and look at what even non-starter UFA costs on the open market and than think about who would not have been able to be resigned as a result. Also considering that having the additional picks allows for Ted to make other moves that he probably wouldn't otherwise I would consider it a success.

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Online texaspackerbacker  
#14 Posted : Thursday, April 3, 2014 7:42:48 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: wpr Go to Quoted Post
I too like Uncle Ted. He knows how to evaluate players.

His one sided approach to building a team reminds me of a small market MLB team instead of the NFL with more revenue sharing and more strict salary minimum and maximums.


That sounds like the expression "condemning by faint praise". I agree with you, Ted has handled things a lot more like would be necessary for the Brewers, Pirates, Bucks, T Wolves, etc. Partly, he has gotten away with it because, as you say, he is a decent talent evaluator, but mostly he has gotten away with it because we have Aaron Rodgers - a blessing that compensates for a whole lot of hyper-frugality.
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Offline DoddPower  
#15 Posted : Saturday, April 5, 2014 3:49:06 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
Something tells me if we had signed 4 solid UFAs over the past 8 years we might have seen some better overall results. That's just fewer comp picks than the 11 we obtained... of whom more than 80% of them contributed little to nothing. Who knows? Six of one, half a dozen of the other.


This logic doesn't make much sense to me. Using your logic, one could just say if Ted Thompson would have picked better players with his compensatory picks, there might have been better overall results. The same for the unrestricted free agents (UFA). UFA's are abosolutely no certainty, either. The point should be more focused on execution, not the preference of one method or another. If he would have pulled more Josh Sitton's out of his compensatory picks, things would be even more skewed. It's all about execution.

Moreover, the salary implications can't be overlooked here, which makes the benefit of compensatory picks even greater. I have no doubt that weighs heavily on the minds of Ted Thompson and the entire Packers organization. I think being fiscally conservative is a strict goal of the Packer's organization, whether we as fans like it or not. It's just the way it is.

Lastly, how many 3rd round compensatory picks has he had? I know he's had a few 4th rounders, and there has been some substantial success there. But I feel like most of the compensatory picks have been in the 5th round, or later. If he can consistently bring in 3rd and 4th round picks, I think the approach is well worth it. Let's not forget, one can't only examine the compensatory picks exclusively. Obtaining the additional picks gives Thompson more flexibility to pursue trades with his non-compensatory picks. The true value of compensatory selections can't be quantified by the picks themselves, imo. As usual, there is much more to it and it is much more complicated than that.

When 3rd and 4th round picks are rolling in, I rather like the approach. Not so much the 6th and 7th rounders.

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