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IronMan  
#21 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 1:30:27 AM(UTC)
I'm in!
Nonstopdrivel  
#22 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 7:13:08 PM(UTC)
Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.
Zero2Cool  
#23 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2009 8:05:30 PM(UTC)
Wow, nearly 20 ... keep'em coming ... pussies. :)
TheEngineer  
#24 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 12:11:19 AM(UTC)
" said: Go to Quoted Post
Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.


That's because the left column is the favourites and the right is the underdogs!
djcubez  
#25 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 1:23:12 AM(UTC)
" said: Go to Quoted Post
" said: Go to Quoted Post
Holy crap. For Week 1, I selected a straight ticket -- I picked every team in the left column. Weird.


That's because the left column is the favourites and the right is the underdogs!

Yea, no reason for underdog picks in the first week, nobody really knows what's up.
Nonstopdrivel  
#26 Posted : Friday, September 11, 2009 1:52:20 AM(UTC)
Last year I read an article (it might have been Gregg Easterbrook's "Tuesday Morning Quarterback" -- I can't remember) in which it was stated that over the course of the entire season, the following simple system has beaten the picks of virtually every pundit out there. For every game:

1) Pick the team with the better record.

2) In case of a tie, pick the home team.

Sounds oversimplified, and it is, but the beauty of it is it plays the odds, doesn't overthink the nuances, and doesn't jump on bandwagons.

Obviously, this isn't an optimal strategy for week 1, when you have no prior information, but its success improves dramatically as the season progresses.

If I remember correctly, no pundit in the past few years has exceeded a 70% correct pick rate, and I don't think many get above 60%. Some of the most famous score an abysmal 25% or less! The strategy above is rarely beat by more than one nationally known pundit.
Nonstopdrivel  
#27 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 1:47:46 AM(UTC)
So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?
djcubez  
#28 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 5:49:49 AM(UTC)
" said: Go to Quoted Post
So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?

My roommate is in a $50 pool every week with his family and he got it this week with his Denver over Cincinatti pick. I was actually close to picking San Francisco over Arizona just because I thought Mike Singletary is really changing the culture over there. I didn't do it though :/
Rockmolder  
#29 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 6:41:18 AM(UTC)
" said: Go to Quoted Post
So I went 13-3 for the week. Not bad. Two of my mistakes almost everyone else made too, so I don't feel terrible about them. Who would have guessed Denver over Cinci, much less San Fran over Arizona?


I went Cinci over Denver. So did the Ninja and beingBOILEDhurts (Forgot who you are).

The one pick that everyone got wrong was, like you said, 49ers over Arizona. Shouldn't have taken that gamble on Miami, though. They got their ass handed to them by the Falcons.

Don't know if you found it, but you can see everyone's previous picks here.

http://football.fantasys.../22111/grouppicks?week=1
Zero2Cool  
#30 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2009 9:50:06 AM(UTC)
DOMINATION!!
Packers_Finland  
#31 Posted : Wednesday, September 23, 2009 7:59:25 AM(UTC)
A make or break week coming up. I'm predicting a lot of upsets, I hope it pays off (though it likely won't).
Rockmolder  
#32 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:12:48 PM(UTC)
" said: Go to Quoted Post
A make or break week coming up. I'm predicting a lot of upsets, I hope it pays off (though it likely won't).


10 out of 16 incorrect. Ouch.

So, Green Bay or Minnesota, people?
Nonstopdrivel  
#33 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:27:51 PM(UTC)
My algorithm forces me to pick Minnesota, sadly. Better record AND at home.
Nonstopdrivel  
#34 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:42:01 PM(UTC)
My current record in the Pick'em league is 33-15 (.688), 4 points behind the league leader Rockmolder and a mere 1 point ahead of MassPackerFan's Random Guesses.

I'd like to know what THAT says about the state of the NFL these days. ;)
Packers_Finland  
#35 Posted : Sunday, October 4, 2009 11:53:30 AM(UTC)
I was right up there in at the top of the board until last week, which went as bad as possible. 6-10. What the fuck?

I'm predicting Green Bay this week.
MassPackersFan  
#36 Posted : Monday, January 4, 2010 5:57:33 PM(UTC)
Woot woot
TheEngineer  
#37 Posted : Tuesday, January 5, 2010 1:43:29 AM(UTC)
Congrats MassPackersFan. Lost by 3 points after missing an entire week (week 10) :(
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beast (2h) : Nonstop got it correct, but when Giannis said it, the Ant-teh-toh comes out very quickly, which is said to sound very "inauthentic" when english speakers try to speed it up, but natural to native Yoru
beast (2h) : I just read an article (with videos) on how to say it... I might be able to say it the English way, but no way I can pronounce it like Giannis himself did.
Nonstopdrivel (2h) : Ant teh toh koonm po (roughly)
Zero2Cool (2h) : well if it's not t hat hard to say, then ...
Nonstopdrivel (2h) : Assuming the name is Greek, it's not t hat hard to say.
Zero2Cool (3h) : I don't even try his last name lol
beast (12h) : Richie Incognito told police he’s involved with the NSA, being tracked by government
beast (13h) : Can people say Giannis Antetokounmpo's name correctly? :P
Zero2Cool (21h) : Giannis Antetokounmpo earns All-NBA honors
Zero2Cool (23h) : Brewers (31-19, .620), off to their best 50-game start in franchise history, own the best record in the National League
Zero2Cool (23h) : says they shouldn't profit while anthem being played
Zero2Cool (23h) : 49ers closing concessions during anthem.
Zero2Cool (24-May) : Muhammad Wilkerson's top reason for signing with Packers: 'Aaron Rodgers'
Zero2Cool (24-May) : 2.5lbs ones anyway ... anything else is just showing off
Zero2Cool (24-May) : I can throw dumbells too!
beast (23-May) : Richie Incognito is being held for an involuntary mental evaluation after he was accused of throwing a dumbbell at another person
Nonstopdrivel (23-May) : Weird, I thought they had parted ways with him already. Apparently he was just on IR.
Zero2Cool (23-May) : Packers expected to visit with veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis
DarkaneRules (23-May) : And whether any improvement will be enough to make the team.
DarkaneRules (23-May) : Goodson wasn't very good but it's been a while. He gets an opportunity to show how he's improved.
Zero2Cool (23-May) : I still say Goodson is trash.
Zero2Cool (23-May) : Aaron Rodgers brought up CB Demetri Goodson unprompted on Tuesday. "He's made some plays already during the two days (of OTAs)."
beast (23-May) : Black 21.5" 5ms Widescreen LED Backlight‎
Zero2Cool (23-May) : VA2246M-LED
beast (22-May) : LB Mychal Kendricks anybody? ... good speed LB... and hoping he doesn't want to go play with his brother on the Vikings
Zero2Cool (22-May) : players picked from Nos. 1 to 21 in the first round receive fully guaranteed contracts.
beast (21-May) : Rumor is that Richie Incognito wants to retire, he just wanted to be released first so that he didn't have to play back any of his signing bonus.
Zero2Cool (21-May) : Bills have released G Richie Incognito -->>> ?? Packers?
Mucky Tundra (21-May) : or very shortly after being drafted
Mucky Tundra (21-May) : from reading about it, sounds like he went to rehab before even being drafted
Mucky Tundra (21-May) : didn't know about the other two stints
Zero2Cool (21-May) : favre went into rehab three times, ... i didn't know that and i thought i knew everything. WTF
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