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Offline Rockmolder  
#1 Posted : Monday, December 21, 2009 7:40:48 PM(UTC)
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If there's one call that has been scrutinized, and rightfully so, it has been the prevent call with 3 second left on the clock that cost us the game.

Or actually, the prevent plays throughout that drive.

We went up against an offense and offensive line that has had problems picking up pressure all season long and a QB who holds on to the ball way too long. Yet, we preferred to bring 3 on nearly every play instead of brining the standard 4 or blitzing with an extra guy or 2.

This problems on the Steelers' O-line became even more obvious when Jenkins went through nearly untouched and got to Ben, who broke out of the poor tackle and scrambled, only to have Raji cut of his escape route and having to throw it away.

Although I dont like prevent defense, and I don't think that we would've been put in as bad a position as we where, had we blitzed a little more, a prevent call with 3 seconds left on the clock, isn't too bad a call. You zone out the end-zone and force the QB to dump it off and hope for a miracle.

Or, at least, that's the theory behind it.

Obviously, that isn't exactly what happened in our case.

Let's start with the personnel on this play.

We're playing a 2-3-6. Obviously, we're playing prevent.

On the D-line, we have Jolly and Wynn.

I'm going to assume that Jenkins and Raji where out of gas on this one. Can't imagine that Capers would want these guys out there over them. I'd like to think that your main pass rushers can toughen up and play this one last play, but they are 300 and 340 lbs, respectively, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

At LB, I think we're playing Matthews, Barnett and Poppinga. Cant see it very well. Matthews is on the TE, Barnett is on the RB and Poppinga is rushing the passer.

Williams, Bell and Bush are in man against the receivers. Woodson, Collins and Bigby are playing deep zone.

On the field, it looks like this.

UserPostedImage

If you added up the personnel tasks, you figured out that we're playing a cover 3 man. Most of our corners are giving the receivers quite a cushion and, thus, a free release. Only Williams is up close to the receiver.

UserPostedImage

Our guys can't get any pressure on Roethlisberger, who gets about 10 seconds in the pocket before throwing it in for the TD. Mike Bell was covering Wallace pretty well, but got no safety help at all.

UserPostedImage

On this picture Bigby is just running over to get into his regular zone (Marked as '1'Wink. Had Bigby been there all along, Bell could've played underneath and batted the ball down. I assume that Atari made a mental mistake on this one, though, and got lured to the side where 4 Steelers receivers where running to, guessing that this play would be a hail mary. That resulted in getting Bell isolated on rookie WR Wallace. A match up that Ben had some trust in, apparently, as he threw it into some good coverage.

There is one different theory I can think off, and that is that the Packers where playing man all around, having double coverage on the Steelers' 3 best receivers in Ward, Holmes and Miller, which would result in an overload to the right, as Wallace was the only receiver going left.

If that's the case, Capers should throw that page out of his playbook. If anyone, you want Woodson in single coverage, and even then it's a weird play.

Lastly, Bell's play on the ball.

Personally, I think he did just about everything right for the situation he was in. He played close up against the receiver, not having any help over the top. He nearly made quite a play, as he did get his hand in between Wallace's hands while having to make that hard cut.

UserPostedImage

In hindsight, maybe he should've gone for a force out, but there's just a couple of corners in the league who bat that ball down or get the guy out of bounds.

Let's just hope that we won't 'prevent' another offense all the way down to our end-zone. This sequence of calls reminded me an awfull lot of Bob Sanders' vanilla defenses.... [url=index.php?name=Pro_News&aid=126]full article[/url].
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Offline dfosterf  
#2 Posted : Monday, December 21, 2009 8:19:33 PM(UTC)
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+1 Rock. Good stuff.

This friggin' prevent shit still has me fuming...

Prevent you from winning, is what they should call it.

Hey Dom, have you heard? It isn't how you start, it's how you finish in this league. We are supposed to be honing our vaunted defense right about now.

What a crock. I am not embarrassed about that game, but the end of it is very embarrassing, not so much that last play, but the whole mindset and defensive philosophy that would allow it to occur.

How many ways does this coaching staff have to recognize/have it beat into their friggin' heads that the prevent has not and will not friggin' work against a good quarterback?

Dom gave that game away.

You think that shit will work against Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Donovan Mcnabb or Brett Favre?

Better wake up quick, Dom. Stubborn stupid shit, imo
Offline IronMan  
#3 Posted : Monday, December 21, 2009 8:32:33 PM(UTC)
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You shouldn't ever question the coaches because they are never wrong. And they know more about the game than us, so we have no right to criticize them. EVER.

(sarcasm)
Offline doddpower  
#4 Posted : Monday, December 21, 2009 8:47:57 PM(UTC)
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" said: Go to Quoted Post
+1 Rock. Good stuff.

This friggin' prevent shit still has me fuming...

Prevent you from winning, is what they should call it.

Hey Dom, have you heard? It isn't how you start, it's how you finish in this league. We are supposed to be honing our vaunted defense right about now.

What a crock. I am not embarrassed about that game, but the end of it is very embarrassing, not so much that last play, but the whole mindset and defensive philosophy that would allow it to occur.

How many ways does this coaching staff have to recognize/have it beat into their friggin' heads that the prevent has not and will not friggin' work against a good quarterback?

Dom gave that game away.

You think that shit will work against Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Donovan Mcnabb or Brett Favre?

Better wake up quick, Dom. Stubborn stupid shit, imo


I put a lot of the blame on Capers for this loss. He's a great defensive coordinator, for sure. Don't get me wrong. I think he just called a terrible game, at least when it mattered. Not only do we run a prevent defense on the last play, but pretty much every play near the end of that drive. The offense knew EXACTLY what they were going to get.

Also, I think if you're only going to rush a few people, your best pass rusher HAS to be one of them. Putting Matthews in coverage was another mistake. It just seems to be like we conceded any pass rush on those last plays. Matthews has a crazy motor, hadn't been rushing the QB in a few plays at least. Put him on the line and tear him lose on the QB.

Ahhhh, I don't know. I'm just not happy with the defensive calls. Let's hope Dom learns from this game, and this doesn't happen again.
Offline British  
#5 Posted : Monday, December 21, 2009 9:01:19 PM(UTC)
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Thanks for the breakdown Rock.

Capers is played millions of dollars to stop drives just like that.

They had little time, a long way to go, a feeble OLine and one timeout.

I hope Capers is kicking himself all week and learns from it.
Offline Wade  
#6 Posted : Monday, December 21, 2009 9:14:05 PM(UTC)
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" said: Go to Quoted Post

UserPostedImage

On this picture Bigby is just running over to get into his regular zone (Marked as '1'Wink. Had Bigby been there all along, Bell could've played underneath and batted the ball down. I assume that Atari made a mental mistake on this one, though, and got lured to the side where 4 Steelers receivers where running to, guessing that this play would be a hail mary. That resulted in getting Bell isolated on rookie WR Wallace. A match up that Ben had some trust in, apparently, as he threw it into some good coverage.

There is one different theory I can think off, and that is that the Packers where playing man all around, having double coverage on the Steelers' 3 best receivers in Ward, Holmes and Miller, which would result in an overload to the right, as Wallace was the only receiver going left.
[url=index.php?name=Pro_News&aid=126]full article[/url].


Another great post, Rock. +1

This pic disturbs me. Okay, the Pitt guy makes a great catch despite damn fine coverage by Bell. TD, game over, yadda yadda yadda.

But there's three other guys in the picture, and no other Pitt guy inside. Bigby's got this appearance of "oh fuck, I fucked this up." Bush looks like he's standing there doing a statue imitation. And the guy whose legs are only showing (Collins perhaps) looks no better.

Okay, I understand. It's zone coverage. Okay, I understand, it's a still picture. Okay, I understand, the ball has been in the air for a bit by the time the pic is snapped. But those three guys look like they are "off" the receivers even more than they are in the opening pic.

But still. It isn't the touchdown catch that's annoying. That looks like one NFL player going one-on-one with another NFL player. But Bigby, Bush, and "Legs"....they're about as dynamic as a Monet painting.
Offline Rockmolder  
#7 Posted : Monday, December 21, 2009 9:23:56 PM(UTC)
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" said: Go to Quoted Post
Thanks for the breakdown Rock.

Capers is played millions of dollars to stop drives just like that.

They had little time, a long way to go, a feeble OLine and one timeout.

I hope Capers is kicking himself all week and learns from it.


I doubt he is.

The only thing that the prevent defense is made for is not giving up the big TD. A bend, but don't break style of play.

And that's exactly what it did, from a coaching perspective.

The play call was allright on that last play, if you asume that Bigby was indeed supposed to play zone in the left side of the end-zone. That shouldn't have been a TD.

I think that he'll blame this on execution and just go the exact same way next time.
Offline Rockmolder  
#8 Posted : Monday, December 21, 2009 9:27:47 PM(UTC)
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It's not only those 3 guys, Wade. I couldn't find a shot of the other side of the end-zone, but conventional wisdom has it, that if 8 guys drop deep, and just 1 is on this side, 7 have to be on the other.

Aside from Bell, the other 7 guys where defending 4 receivers, of which 1 was a RB who isn't a great receiver and the other a TE.

Like you said, Bigby was coming up to this side, but really, he's way out of position in the first place.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#9 Posted : Monday, December 21, 2009 11:30:41 PM(UTC)
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Most excellent!

I haven't had a chance to review the game yet, hell, I didn't get to watch much of it live either. Hectic 24 hours here.

I thought Bell was supposed to stay underneath and Bigby had the top. Looks like Bigby was out of position.
Offline Nonstopdrivel  
#10 Posted : Tuesday, December 22, 2009 12:07:24 AM(UTC)
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It's not like this is Capers' first major screwup. He didn't learn his lesson from the first Vikings game either. He called the exact same kind of game the second time around.

I am unimpressed.
Offline Zero2Cool  
#11 Posted : Tuesday, December 22, 2009 12:37:05 AM(UTC)
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" said: Go to Quoted Post
I am unimpressed.
We know. Trust me, we know.
Offline zombieslayer  
#12 Posted : Tuesday, December 22, 2009 3:03:48 AM(UTC)
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Rock gets a +1 for this post.

I'm so pissed right now I want to leave a bag of flaming poo on Dom Caper's front porch then ding dong doorbell ditch his ass.

His conservative playcalling cost us the game.
Offline all_about_da_packers  
#13 Posted : Tuesday, December 22, 2009 6:02:40 AM(UTC)
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Um, let's settle down a bit.

Firstly, I have to disagree with Rock in his analysis; way too subjective and to be blunt he got it wrong. I guessed yesterday that Bell was at fault, and Leroy Butler confirmed that he was in his 5 Questions series.

Quote:
Theres no way that Bell should be inside of that receiver. He should be outside that receiver so he can push him toward Atari Bigby.

Link

Bigby, Collins, and Woodson are playing 3 deep safety. The whole emphasis of the play should be to force your guys inside, towards help. You have two of the better ball hawks in the league in Woodson and Collins , free to roam, and then you have Bigby as help, too. You force your guy inside, towards the help, and force Ben to throw into a crowd.

So in the end, Atari was doing fine, but Bell not so much so.

Bell made a mental blip, which should not be surprising considering he has had less than a month to digest Capers heavy playbook.



Capers is not at fault, IMO. People are unbelievably mad at him... which I can understand, but you can't blame Capers for having to use a 4th CB that is young and inexperienced, and also hasn't had a lot of time to understand his assignments.
Offline all_about_da_packers  
#14 Posted : Tuesday, December 22, 2009 6:28:41 AM(UTC)
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" said: Go to Quoted Post

How many ways does this coaching staff have to recognize/have it beat into their friggin' heads that the prevent has not and will not friggin' work against a good quarterback?

Dom gave that game away.

Better wake up quick, Dom. Stubborn stupid shit, imo



You know, with all due respect, this post is downright idiotic. I can understand the anger of losing that game, of how we should have won and everything... But you honestly shouldn't take a series alone in and of itself to come to conclusions.

Before the final drive, Big Ben carved our defense. Even saying that is an understatement.

Hell, first play of the game, Bush gets beat. Straight man coverage, 4 rushing, and we got burned. You don't think Capers is aware of this when deciding to go to Prevent?

As a DC, you put your players in position to make plays. How many times on the final drive were our players in position to make plays? A heck of a lot.

Chillar commits a penalty, wipes out an INT. Woodson can't hold on to an INT. Jenkins tries to tackle Roethlisberger high, and he can't bring him down. Tramon has a chance to INT a pass for Holmes, he drops it. That's four right there. For what it's worth, Bob McGinn lists the number of times the Packers missed ending the game on the final Steelers drive at 6. Out of 15 plays, then, McGinn counts the Packers as having been in position to close out the game 6 times.


Perhaps we should read what Capers has to say, about going to prevent.

Quote:
"Obviously, you get influenced when on the first play of the game they threw the ball over the top of us for a touchdown ... You don't want to let them go the distance in one play, you want to make them have to work and make a play."


Insider article link


Look, you want to be mad at Capers for underestimating the inexperience his DBs had... fine. You want to blame Capers, who has coached DBs himself, for not making sure his young players knew what to do, be my guest.


To start attacking Capers for irrationally running Prevent on the final drive is to come off as engaging in nonsensical rambling.

Which, to be quite frank, a few people seem to be doing in the wake of the loss.
Offline Packers_Finland  
#15 Posted : Tuesday, December 22, 2009 7:36:25 AM(UTC)
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Wouldn't know how to do without these pics and analysis Rock. +1 again.

Josh Bell should be our nickel back.
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