Mucky Tundra
a year ago

Green Bay is likely to get one extra pick in round five and two more in round seven.

Historically speaking, the Green Bay Packers  are among the NFL’s most frequent recipients of compensatory draft picks. Since Ted Thompson’s tenure as general manager began, the Packers have often allowed mid-level and high-priced internal free agents to sign with other teams while rarely signing external unrestricted free agents who qualify against the NFL’s compensatory draft pick formula. In fact, the Packers have received multiple additional picks in six of the last eight seasons and added at least one pick through this process in all but three of the last 17 drafts, dating back to 2006.

In 2023, it appears that the team should get another batch of compensatory picks as a result of its moves (and non-moves) during the 2022 free agency period. According to’s Nick Korte , the Packers are likely to receive three more selections in 2023 — one in round five and two in round seven.

The picks are assigned to teams based on a balance of unrestricted free agents signed versus those lost to other teams, with values primarily based on average annual contract value with some additional considerations made for playing time.

According to Korte’s projections, the Packers signed only one outside free agent who will qualify above the cutoff for compensatory pick consideration. That player is defensive tackle Jarran Reed, whose contract value falls in the range of a 6th-round pick. However, Korte’s projections see four departing free agents qualifying, with their values corresponding to the following rounds:

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (5th)

OL Lucas Patrick (6th)

CB Chandon Sullivan (7th)

LB Oren Burks (7th)

Because Reed and Patrick both receive a 6th-round value, those two players cancel each other out. The 5th-round selection for Valdes-Scantling is all but assured, as his $10 million per year contract is well clear of any possible cancellation. The two 7th-round picks are a bit tougher to project, however, and they will depend on a few factors, most notably what contract value the NFL will set as the cutoff for consideration.

Both Sullivan and Burks are very close to the bubble as qualifying free agents for the formula. Likewise, new Packers punter Pat O’Donnell is close to the cutoff. However, Korte’s analysis puts the two departing defenders above the bar and O’Donnell as one of the first players below it, meaning that O’Donnell would not cancel out one of the two 7th-round selections. If O’Donnell’s contract in fact ends up over the cutoff — or if either of Sullivan or Burks fall below it — that would eliminate one of those bonus picks.

The NFL will announce the compensatory picks sometime before the start of the 2023 league year, which is scheduled for March 15th.

Looking back one year, the Packers received two compensatory picks in the 2022 NFL Draft: one each in round four and round seven, corresponding to the losses of Corey Linsley and Jamaal Williams, respectively. The team used the fourth-round selection on offensive lineman Zach Tom, who started five games at three different positions in 2022, and selected wide receiver Samori Touré with the seventh-rounder. Meanwhile, Valdes-Scantling yielding a fifth-round pick is an interesting bit of symmetry, as he himself was drafted with a fifth-round compensatory pick in 2018, which the Packers received after losing center JC Tretter in free agency the year before.

Continue Reading @ Evan "Tex" Western 

Evan "Tex" Western wrote:

If they end up with 3 7th rounders, I wonder if they'll take a K with one of them?
“Nah. I like having the island. It’s pretty cool...not too many visitors”
"I’ve got it." -Aaron Rodgers
a year ago
Based on history, I just hope there isn't an extra 3rd round pick.
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Zero2Cool (10h) : I don't like hearing we almost AS good AS Vikings. ewwwww
Zero2Cool (10h) : yuck
dfosterf (10h) : Packers almost as good as the Vikings in the 2023 NFLPA survey of players with a C+ rating
Zero2Cool (11h) : They all land with Jets!!!! Buwahahaha
buckeyepackfan (14h) : The Packers and Preston have agreed to a restructured contract that creates $2.4 million in cap space in 2024, per Field Yates.
buckeyepackfan (16h) : So if The Bears release EQ, him MVS, Lazard and Cobb all free agents. Amazing how things work out.
Zero2Cool (17h) : Source: Chiefs release Marquez Valdes-Scantling, save $12M
Martha Careful (23h) : Amen Buckeye, A classy lady
buckeyepackfan (28-Feb) : R.I.P. Cherry Starr Thank you for everything you and Bart did!
dfosterf (27-Feb) : Andrew Brandt has a good article up at Sports Illustrated regarding the business conducted at the combine
Zero2Cool (26-Feb) : Packers restructured LB Rashan Gary's deal, clearing $4.781M.
Martha Careful (24-Feb) : ty, and ty dfosterf for the new thread.
Zero2Cool (24-Feb) : Which came off like he's not ready
Zero2Cool (24-Feb) : Last I recall hearing was from GM who said he was "in the process"
Martha Careful (24-Feb) : Are there any relatively current reports on whether Bakhtiari is going to be ready to play?
Zero2Cool (23-Feb) : That's a nice jump isn't it from 2023?
Zero2Cool (23-Feb) : Bahaha
Zero2Cool (23-Feb) : NFL announced today that the 2024 Salary Cap will be $255.4 million per club
buckeyepackfan (23-Feb) : 255.4mil!!!!
buckeyepackfan (23-Feb) : NFL anounces 2024 salary cap at 25.4mil, a 30mil increase from 2023.
Zero2Cool (23-Feb) : Chiefs sign Matt Araiza after punter dropped from lawsuit
buckeyepackfan (21-Feb) : Miracles can happen.
packerfanoutwest (20-Feb) : hope Aaron Hill can put an end to all these ridiculous hammie injuries
Zero2Cool (20-Feb) : ource says 2024 salary will be closer to $250 million than $243 million.
Zero2Cool (20-Feb) : Packers are hiring 49ers assistant strength coach Aaron Hill as their new head of strength and conditioning
Martha Careful (18-Feb) : No worries…Happy President's Day. I hope most of you have the day off.
dhazer (18-Feb) : Sorry Martha didn't see the story your on it already
beast (18-Feb) : I'm pretty sure those cap hits are going to hit no matter what, if the players are released, re-sign, whatever, the cap hits are earned
Martha Careful (18-Feb) : DH, 10.4 I agree. Z2C IIRC they could sign later, but lose ability to adjust void years/dead cap
Zero2Cool (18-Feb) : They could release before Monday. Then sign later, yea?
Zero2Cool (18-Feb) : Doesn't meant they won't be on Packers in 2024 does it?
dhazer (18-Feb) : @martha That's why said I guess we will know about Savage because if no extension we get a $5 million cap hit for him
Martha Careful (17-Feb) : Per Packers cap expert Ken Ingalls, Nixon, Savage, and Nijman have void provisions that will trigger on Feb. 19.
Zero2Cool (17-Feb) : I just looked at the contract overview. Not sure what Monday means
Zero2Cool (16-Feb) : How's that work? They can't sign him via free agency?
dhazer (16-Feb) : I am guessing we will know if they are bringing Savage back by Monday, if not extended his cap hit for void years is almost $6 million
Martha Careful (15-Feb) : Kudos to them for the quick hook.
Martha Careful (15-Feb) : Wilks looked clueless and frozen in the 4th Q and OT. I think Shanahan was telling him to dial up pressure and he was in capable.
Mucky Tundra (15-Feb) : *them
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Zero2Cool (15-Feb) : 49ers fire D-coordinator Steve Wilks after one season
packerfanoutwest (14-Feb) : So where were thet for the Championship games?
Martha Careful (13-Feb) : I think they were a reaction to prevent another incident like the Philly game earlier where an asst. coach got involved w/ an opp. playerg
packerfanoutwest (13-Feb) : what's up with the Ninja sideline officials?
umair_010 (12-Feb) : Watching mahomes roll on the floor after winning looked so fake and phoney. I can’t be the only one
Mucky Tundra (12-Feb) : The Chicago Bears are now on the clock
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