musccy
13 years ago
Zero, though it didn't appear to be the case w/ the bears, westbrook did stop at the 1 yard line vs. the giants that one year...you could have been right.

Also, I was wrong on the gould stats. According to ESPN, including PATs, he's 219/220 from within 30 yards. So there was a 0.45% chance that Gould misses that kick last night!
dfosterf
13 years ago
I knew right away who would "tackle" this problem with some specific numbers, and sure enough... AdvancedNFLstats---Subject at hand 


I already gave my opinions on the matter, but thought some might be interested in the probabilities.
Zero2Cool
13 years ago

Zero, though it didn't appear to be the case w/ the bears, westbrook did stop at the 1 yard line vs. the giants that one year...you could have been right.

Also, I was wrong on the gould stats. According to ESPN, including PATs, he's 219/220 from within 30 yards. So there was a 0.45% chance that Gould misses that kick last night!

"musccy" wrote:



lol there was no way in my mind he was going to miss the kick within 30 yards. I was looking for a strip or hoping the Bears got silly cocky an threw one up that we picked. I think we had two strips from them already in the game, but failed to fall on it.
UserPostedImage
musccy
13 years ago
although I still think your odds are better going 80 with some time than a strip, I think that's a much more plausible justification. Woody had stripped twice I think to that point
Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member
13 years ago

Both Wade and Zero are deliberately missing the point for philosophical reasons. It's irritating.

So what if you "shouldn't" let the opposing team score? If it materially increases your chances of winning the game, that is the correct move. It's analogous to a strategic retreat in warfare -- or perhaps even closer to a "demasking procedure" following a gas attack, in which you force one of your soldiers to take off his mask to determine whether or not chemical agents are still in the area. It's very possible you will kill one of your own men to ensure the safety of the rest, but if your unit is thereby able to continue the mission, you consider it a justifiable loss.

Yes, letting the Bears score would have put the Packers down by 7 instead of by 3, but it would have dramatically increased their probability of tying the game. This is indisputable. I can't believe we're still arguing about this.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Sigh. I'm not missing the point.

But I suppose I am making a philosophical point. All good points have a philosophical basis, after all. :)

The analogy to war is not on point. War is a different game. In war you die. In football you just go home with fewer points.

If I were in charge of a war -- and let us all thank God that *that* will never happen -- playing probabilities actually makes a lot of sense to me. Losing in war is too damn expensive to not play every card you can. And, in fact, apart from some bits about "crimes against humanity" and such, I wouldn't much care what people said were the rules for conduct. Because war is a nasty thing that should be pursued only if the enemy needs to be destroyed. (For situations short of this, we have nonfatal methods of scumsucking politics, to paraphrase Clausewitz.)

But when it comes to football, the objectives aren't destruction of the enemy. The objectives are striving to show you are the better team at beating up on the other side.

Football is not a "war" game. Chess is a war game.

Both are fun. I enjoy playing both. But IMO they are games different in kind.

Football is both more civilized and more barbaric. It is more civilized in that it keeps the exertion of violence limited via various rules of "fair play". But in a way it is also more barbaric, because it remains a game that is not just about "winning" but about "beating the other guy."

War can be played probabilistically (so long as you understand the rest of it better than, say, McNamara's band of idiots or your average Obamoid). War, being even more barbaric than football, can be played whatever way works to destroy the enemy and take ownership over the board.
And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
Zero2Cool
13 years ago

Both Wade and Zero are deliberately missing the point for philosophical reasons. It's irritating.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



You need to get over yourself.

I (and Wade probably as well) have stated respects on both letting them score and fighting to the end.

My standing was tainted by my complete frustration and annoyance of us keeping the same players who commit the same penalties every year. This is one aspect about Mike McCarthy that I absolutely can not stand.

If we had tied the game, we'd have a 50/50 chance of winning the kickoff. And if you watched, we weren't getting much our way there. Both offenses were moving the ball with ease, albeit our defense was aiding their offense, lol.

It would have been more exciting to let them score and see what our offense can do, but if you're gonna use 'math' as reasoning that we should have let them score, that's short sighted in my irritable opinion.

As they say with rival games like this, you can throw the records out.
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Nonstopdrivel
13 years ago

You need to get over yourself.

"Zero2Cool" wrote:



I tried -- I really tried -- but just as I was about to succeed in this unnatural feat, I fell flat on my face. Now my nose is bleeding.

Damn you and your colorful metaphors. 😛
UserPostedImage
Zero2Cool
13 years ago

You need to get over yourself.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



I tried, but I fell flat on my face. Now my nose is bleeding. :D

"Zero2Cool" wrote:



Son of a ... that happened to me too!!!

I just stick my index fingers up each nostril and voila!
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Timmons
13 years ago

I want James Campen and Jerry Fontenot on the street no later than midnight tonight. I don't care if they have to hire a bunch of movers to toss their shit on the street. If someone happens to shoot Tauscher and Clifton in the face, I won't grieve too deeply either.

As for Mike McCarthy's decision to challenge that play . . . he deserves a one-game suspension for that stroke of brilliance alone.

"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:



Nonstop,
This is my favorite post of the month.
blank
Zero2Cool
13 years ago

McCarthy further explains his decision to not let the Bears score 

Packers coach Mike McCarthy has faced intense scrutiny for his decision not to allow the Bears to score a touchdown late in Monday night's loss at Soldier Field.

McCarthy didn't help himself by initially explaining that he didn't let the Bears score because he thought Bears kicker Robbie Gould would miss a 19-yard field goal.

McCarthy elaborated on the situation during a Thursday afternoon interview with Adam Schein and Rich Gannon of The Sirius Blitz on Sirius NFL Radio.

"It was definitely an option," McCarthy said. "You have two options there and we chose to play defense. And I understand when you make decisions in key situations in games and it doesn't work out in your favor you are judged accordingly. But you have two options in that particular situation and we chose to play defense."

Gannon then offered up what would have been a much better explanation from McCarthy. "Just for your information," Gannon said, "Coach Madden was on your side. He talked about it. He said everything in your fabric, in your DNA as a coach, tells you to go out and stop them, not let them score."

"Well, no question," McCarthy said, "but I do understand the percentages of your other option, in particular with Aaron Rodgers and our offense. It's definitely something that you have to consider. . . . If you go back and look at the whole time frame it really falls right in that area. Two timeouts, after the pass interference, and then they take the ball down to the I guess it was the one or two yard line, you make a decision there I think you'd have been close to almost between 50 seconds to a minute left. We were definitely in the time range as far as making that decision."

So why wasn't the decision made? Part of the problem is that, when the events are unfolding in real time, coaches don't always think as clearly as they otherwise could or should. Fear of criticism also can be a significant factor.

And we keep coming back to Madden's rationale for not allowing the other team to score. It cuts against the grain of everything every player or coach ever learns. Even when it's the right thing to do, there's still something about it that seems wrong.

But not nearly as wrong as suggesting with a straight face a coach believes a reliable kicker would miss a 19-yard field goal.


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Zero2Cool (2-May) : Season officially ending tonight for Bucks ... sad face
Zero2Cool (2-May) : Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as out for tonight's game.
dfosterf (2-May) : Surprisingly low initially is my guess cap wise, but gonna pay the piper after that
dfosterf (2-May) : The number on Love is going to be brutal.
Zero2Cool (2-May) : May 3rd. Extension day for Jordan Love. (soonest)
Zero2Cool (1-May) : USFL MVP QB Alex McGough moved to WR. So that's why no WR drafted!
earthquake (1-May) : Packers draft starters at safety ever few years. Collins, Clinton-Dix, Savage
beast (1-May) : Why can't the rookies be a day 1 starter? Especially when we grabbed 3 of them at the position
dfosterf (1-May) : Not going to be shocked if Gilmore goes to the Lions.
dfosterf (1-May) : I hear you dhazer, but my guess would be Gilmore Colts and Howard Vikings from what little has been reported.
Mucky Tundra (30-Apr) : S learn from McKinney who learns from Hafley who learns from the fans. Guaranteed Super Bowl
Zero2Cool (30-Apr) : could*
Zero2Cool (29-Apr) : Safeties should learn from Xavier.
dhazer (29-Apr) : And what about grabbing a Gilmore or Howard at CB ? Those are all Free Agents left
dhazer (29-Apr) : out of curiosity do they try and sign Simmons or Hyde to let these young safeties learn from, they can't be day 1 starters.
Zero2Cool (29-Apr) : I miss having Sam Shields.
Zero2Cool (29-Apr) : Not that he's making excuses, just pointing it out
Zero2Cool (29-Apr) : That's for dang sure. Make our erratic kicker have no excuse!
packerfanoutwest (28-Apr) : having a great long snapper is gold
Zero2Cool (28-Apr) : LaFleur looking like he had some weight. Coachin will do that lol
Zero2Cool (28-Apr) : Thanks Mucky and whomever created topcos for each pick!
Zero2Cool (28-Apr) : Insane about Kingsley
dfosterf (28-Apr) : Putring it here so Mucky sees it. He was our guy!
dfosterf (28-Apr) : Bowden long snapper Wisconsin. Consensus best LS in college.
dfosterf (28-Apr) : We got Peter Bowde
dfosterf (28-Apr) : I personally interpret that as a partial tear that can be recovered from with rehab
dfosterf (28-Apr) : MLF said Kingsley Enagbare did NOT tear his ACL and did NOT require surgery, and that he is "looking good" for the 2024 season!
beast (28-Apr) : T.O. son signs with the 49ers
Mucky Tundra (28-Apr) : damn those vikings
beast (27-Apr) : UDFA Vikings sign TE – Trey Knox, South Carolina
beast (27-Apr) : Kitchen was all high from Miami, he was more lucky than talented in 2022 and it showed in 2023
beast (27-Apr) : Reportedly Packers have UDFAs Jennings and Jones
beast (27-Apr) : OL – Donovan Jennings, USF OT – Trente Jones, Michigan
TheKanataThrilla (27-Apr) : Interesting draft. A bit shocked that we didn't select an early CB. Definitely have Safety help. Pretty happy overall.
dhazer (27-Apr) : wow the last 2 picks are really stupid and probably will be special teams players Top 10 draft pick next year book it
TheKanataThrilla (27-Apr) : I think he ended up with a terrible RAS score
dhazer (27-Apr) : Anyone know what went on with Kitchens from Florida? At 1 point he was to be the Packers 1st round and he is way down the board now
Martha Careful (27-Apr) : Z, could you please combine my thread with yours please. I obviously did not see it when I Created it
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Re: 'Kool-Aid' McKinstry. Other than Icky Woods, has there ever been a good NFLer with a childish nickname?
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Packers looking to trade up
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