Packers are better then the Colts ...· Page 4

Greg C.
Registered

14 years ago

You just can't separate penalties from everything else, because it's all interrelated--as reflected in the win-loss columns.

"wils0646" wrote:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/65706132.html

In their 2007 Pro Football Prospectus, Aaron Schatz and Bill Barnwell from footballoutsiders.com studied penalties from 2002-'06. They found there was "almost zero" correlation between record and defensive or special-team penalties. There was, however, a much stronger correlation with offensive penalties.

"Greg C." wrote:

Of course this can change when looking as specific games, but as a whole, defensive penalties seem to not have a significant correlation to wins and losses.

I remember that article now, about how defensive and special teams penalties supposedly do not correlate with win-loss record. I admit that I was surprised by it. The best explanation for it is that there are too many other variables that come into play. You may be able to find other statistical categories that are significant as part of the whole but do not correlate with win-loss records.

I still think that in ranking defenses (or offenses) by yardage, it would make a lot more sense to include penalty yardage in the equation. So I do think that the Packer defense is probably ranked a little higher than it should be.

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rodgehodge
Registered

14 years ago

#32

This reminds me of all the talk last year about the Hawkeyes. We had four losses but lost those games by a combined 12 points. Everyone was saying how good we were since those losses were by such a small margin, but at the end of the day we still had four losses.

The argument is a moot point, because if Tampa Bay had better players at every position, they could be 13-0. Each team has what it has and needs to make due. O-line play and penalties are such a huge part of the game that you can't just say ignore them and look at the rest of the stats. I'd rather be 13-0. But even with our record I still like our chances against any team with any record.

"nathaniel" wrote:

I'm glad someone at least touched on this. It's a little ridiculous to say that we're better than another team if you factor out our O-line and discipline problems. That's like saying that oakland is a better team than the colts if you factor out...their entire team. Or that my girlfriend looks just like heidi klum if you factor out her face and body.

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Grabacr
Member

14 years ago

#33

To take an example from real life....my college team won 2-0 at the weekend...and my college team havent surrended a point in regulation time (lost in OT)

I would be happy with stats and the #1 D going into the playoffs.

But i cant agree with the overall topic. Packers wouldnt be 13-0 as they spend far to much time going backwards. (sacks and pens) of course its been discussed to death they need some better OLine. I feel that things can only get better aslong as the OLine stays healthy and the draft/FA is favourable and Ted Thompson dips his hands in his pockets and pays some people!

Greg C.
Registered

14 years ago

#34

I just thought of something. If penalties were included in defensive stats, they would also have to include penalties by opposing offenses, or it would be misleading. So it is neater to just keep penalty yardage as a separate statistic. It makes sense to me now.

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yooperfan
Veteran Member

14 years ago

#35

"Greg C." wrote:

You didn't "just" think of this.
When I left JT's shaft at 2:30 this morning I could feel strong vibrations coming from your neighborhood and I said to my self; self, I bet Greg is going to have a profound post within 12 hours.
Lo and behold I was right.

Just kidding Greg, I love your insight even if you do live in Marquette.

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