1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Passing Yards: 4213
Rushing Yards: 268
Touchdowns: 33 (4 rushing)
Turnovers: 13 (3 fumbles)
Total Points: 367.32

Outlook: Surprised? You shouldnt be. Rodgers has outscored every QB in fantasy football over the last two seasons. His passing numbers hold up very well with the leagues elite, but its his rushing numbers that put him over the top. His nine rushing touchdowns in two seasons is No. 1 among all QBs.

2. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Passing Yards: 4647
Rushing Yards: 29
Touchdowns: 32 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 18 (4 fumbles)
Total Points: 344.78

Outlook: From a passing standpoint, Brees is the No. 1 fantasy QB. Hes thrown over 4,000 yards in each of his four seasons in Sean Paytons offense. Plus, nobody has thrown for more touchdowns in the last two years.

3. Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
Passing Yards: 4131
Rushing Yards: 67
Touchdowns: 32 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 13 (3 fumbles)
Total Points: 337.94

Outlook: Under the tutorship of Norv Turner, Rivers has emerged as an elite fantasy QB. His 62 touchdown passes over the last two seasons rank just behind Brees. Hes also one of four QBs to throw for over 4,000 yards in each of the last two years.

4. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts
Passing Yards: 4235
Rushing Yards: 10
Touchdowns: 32 (2 rushing)
Turnovers: 13
Total Points: 336.4

Outlook: I know, I know. No. 4 is probably as low as youll find Manning, but his numbers have been relatively consistent over the last four seasons. I dont see that changing. Hes as safe as a fantasy QB as youll get, but hes no longer alone in putting up ridiculous point totals. In reality, there isnt a QB that does more for his team than Manning. In the world of fantasy football, other players have caught up.

5. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
Passing Yards: 4317
Rushing Yards: 98
Touchdowns: 32 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 20 (5 fumbles)
Total Points: 334.48

Outlook: Some people believe Romo is ready to take the next step and become an elite QB in 2010. However, in fantasy circles, he already is an elite QB. Hes thrown for over 4,000-plus yards in two of the last three seasons, with nearly 40 touchdown passes in 2007. From a fantasy stand point, Romo has nothing more to prove.

6. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Passing Yards: 4254
Rushing Yards: 66
Touchdowns: 28 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 15 (2 fumbles)
Total Points: 314.76

Outlook: When analyzing Bradys numbers youll notice consistency. Hes always around that 30 touchdown and 4,000 yard mark. Its beginning to look like his record breaking 2007 season was an apparition. Thats why his projections look more like they did in 2009 than they did two years ago.

7. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
Passing Yards: 4340
Rushing Yards: 69
Touchdowns: 25 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 17 (3 fumbles)
Total Points: 296.5

Outlook: Over the course of a full 16 game schedule, Schaub projects higher than this. However, Schaub has only managed to play a 16 game schedule once in his career. If you believe in Schaubs health, selecting him as one of the top five QBs in your draft isnt a bad move. But I simply cannot recommend anyone take him ahead of the six players ahead of him. Right now, I dont have the confidence that he can stay healthy.

8. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings
Passing Yards: 3943
Rushing Yards: 21
Touchdowns: 28
Turnovers: 17 (2 fumbles)
Total Points: 293.82

Outlook: Can Favre possibly have as good as a season in 2010 as he had in 2009? Maybe, but probably not. It might be clich, but the motivation to prove to Green Bay that he can still play at a high level wont be there. He accomplished that last season. Still, I can see him producing a season that resembles his final year with the Packers. There is one red flag worth mentioning. Favre hasnt produced back-to-back quality seasons since 2003 and 2004. Just sayin'

9. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Passing Yards: 4044
Rushing Yards: 42
Touchdowns: 27 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 18 (1 fumble)
Total Points: 291.96

Outlook: I believe Ryan is the next big thing in the NFL and this is his breakout year. If he attempts as many passes as he did a year ago over a 16 game projection while matching his completion percentage during his rookie season, he stands a good chance of reaching 4,000 yards. The touchdowns will also come with targets like Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez to throw too. To be simple about it, the numbers are in his favor for 2010.

10. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
Passing Yards: 3934
Rushing Yards: 118
Touchdowns: 25 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 14 (2 fumbles)
Total Points: 291.16

Outlook: Flacco made huge strides from year one to year two. His 21 touchdown passes were solid last season and the addition of Anquan Boldin can only help him improve on that number.

11. Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles
Passing Yards: 3955
Rushing Yards: 7
Touchdowns: 29 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 21 (5 fumbles)
Total Points: 290.9

Outlook: People have jumped ship on Philadelphias bandwagon because of their decision to go with Kolb as their QB in 2009. However, fantasy players should ignore the calls for the Eagles demise because Kolb is perfectly suited for Andy Reids offense. Most importantly, hes surrounded by offensive playmakers that will help him thrive. I also believe his first season as a starter will compare somewhat to Aaron Rodgers first season as Green Bays starter. The circumstances are somewhat eerie similar.

12. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
Passing Yards: 3961
Rushing Yards: 124
Touchdowns: 27 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 21 (1 fumble)
Total Points: 290.84

Outlook: Its always tricky projecting players wholl be entering their first year into a new offensive system. Cutler isnt an exception, but he is who he is by now. Hell throw for a lot of yards and touchdowns, but hell also turn the ball over a lot. If you can live with the turnovers, Cutler projects as a starting fantasy QB.

13. Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins
Passing Yards: 3558
Rushing Yards: 188
Touchdowns: 22 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 13 (4 fumbles)
Total Points: 267.12

Outlook: You wouldnt believe it based on how the national media talks about him, but McNabb is kind of overrated as a fantasy QB. Hes never thrown for over 4,000 yards in a season and hes only thrown for at least 25 touchdowns twice. Hes also only started a full 16 game schedule once in the last five years. Still, hes a solid starting option, but dont make the mistake and perceive him as an elite fantasy QB.

14. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Passing Yards: 3418
Rushing Yards: 74
Touchdowns: 26
Turnovers: 19 (2 fumbles)
Total Points: 262.12

Outlook: Despite playing in only 11 games, Smith threw 18 touchdowns in 2009, which projects to 26 over 16 games. If youre like me and you like San Francisco heading into this season, you may feel obligated to take a chance on Smith then. With all this in mind, this breakout projection is more about the talent around Smith than it is his capabilities.

15. Eli Manning. N.Y. Giants
Passing Yards: 3460
Rushing Yards: 41
Touchdowns: 25
Turnovers: 18
Total Points: 256.5

Outlook: Coming off a career year, some people probably expect high projections for Manning in 2010. However, I believe 2009 was an apparition for New York and Manning. The Giants got away from playing stout defensively and running the football well. In other words, they got away from what they did best. If their defense improves in 2010, itll allow them to run the football. If this happens, I expect Mannings stats to return to what fantasy owners are used too. The probability of that happening is higher than there is Manning duplicating his 2009 output.

16. Vince Young, Tennessee Titans
Passing Yards: 2660
Rushing Yards: 543
Touchdowns: 20 (6 rushing)
Turnovers: 16 (3 fumbles)
Total Points: 248.7

Outlook: Despite having a limited role, Young wasnt bad last season. He threw and ran the ball well. While nobody in their right mind would recommend him as a top ten fantasy option, Young still projects to have a career year, when combining his passing and rushing data.

17. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
Passing Yards: 3474
Rushing Yards: 51
Touchdowns: 23 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 17 (1 fumble)
Total Points: 248.06

Outlook: Even with the upgrades Cincinnati made to their receiving core, Palmer plays in a run first offense and he barely eclipsed 3,000-plus yards last season. The fact is Palmer has become a game manager and thats a title that fantasy owners dont like to hear.

18. David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars
Passing Yards: 3608
Rushing Yards: 250
Touchdowns: 17 (2 rushing)
Turnovers: 16 (5 fumbles)
Total Points: 239.32

Outlook: Fumbles aside, Garrard has been relatively consistent the last two years. Hes in a running offense, so you shouldnt expect big fantasy numbers from him, but hes not a bad pick later when youre filling out your depth.

19. Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs
Passing Yards: 3308
Rushing Yards: 229
Touchdowns: 19 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 16 (3 fumbles)
Total Points: 237.22

Outlook: I wouldnt put it past Charlie Weis to mold Cassel into a solid fantasy QB as early as this season, but the offense is tailor made for the running game. I believe Cassel with flash some of the same signs he did a few years ago when he filled in for Tom Brady, but hes not a starting option unless youre in deeper leagues.

20. Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals
Passing Yards: 3423
Rushing Yards: 57
Touchdowns: 21 (3 rushing)
Turnovers: 17 (3 fumbles)
Total Points: 234.62

Outlook: Im buying Arizona as Pittsburgh West in 2010. I expect their offense to be balance, with their running game being a much more involved this season than it was last. If there is a breakout performer on this team, its Chris Wells and not Leinart.

21. Jason Campbell, Oakland Raiders
Passing Yards: 3068
Rushing Yards: 247
Touchdowns: 16 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 11 (2 fumbles)
Total Points: 221.42

Outlook: The problem Campbell owners will face this year is that Oakland lacks playmakers on the outside for him to get the ball too. Despite the change of scenery, the talent around Campbell isnt better, which is why his numbers project to be similar to what they were in Washington.

22. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Passing Yards: 3021
Rushing Yards: 175
Touchdowns: 20 (2 rushing)
Turnovers: 21 (2 fumbles)
Total Points: 216.34

Outlook: Count me out as someone who believes Stafford is primed for a breakout sophomore season. One of the knocks on him coming out was he didnt show enough improvement year-to-year in college. His projections say hell have a better season, but not by much.

23. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Passing Yards: 2812
Rushing Yards: 101
Touchdowns: 20 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 14 (4 fumbles)
Total Points: 214.58

Outlook: Keep in mind, my rankings are based on total points accumulated throughout the season. Obviously, Roethlisberger takes a hit because of his suspension. Its also worth noting that Pittsburgh will try and run the ball much more in 2010 than last season. None the less, he could be a viable play later in the year, which gives him more value than youd normally see out of someone slotted as the No. 23 rated fantasy QB.

24. Matt Moore, Carolina Panthers
Passing Yards: 3120
Rushing Yards: 3
Touchdowns: 19
Turnovers: 14 (2 fumbles)
Total Points: 211.1

Outlook: The offense Moore is in wont help his fantasy cause. Carolina will run the ball very well and throw deep to Steve Smith. That might translate into wins, but not fantasy points.

25. Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins
Passing Yards: 3290
Rushing Yards: 28
Touchdowns: 16 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 12
Total Points: 206.4

Outlook: Henne will probably have a fine season managing the game and throwing the football to Brandon Marshall, but Miami is much more likely to rely on their running game than they are their QB. His fantasy numbers take a dire hit because of this.

26. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing Yards: 2684
Rushing Yards: 220
Touchdowns: 20 (3 rushing)
Turnovers: 26 (3 fumbles)
Total Points: 197.36

Outlook: The fact that I project Freeman to lead the league in turnovers should tell you enough. I dont see any upside here except that Tampa will probably be playing from behind a lot.

27. Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos
Passing Yards: 3038
Rushing Yards: 84
Touchdowns: 17
Turnovers: 18 (4 fumbles)
Total Points: 195.92

Outlook: Josh McDaniels has stripped Denver of their best playmakers and theyll probably rely on their running game in 2010. Orton also has tough competition behind him in Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow. His leash is too short for me to recommend him.

28. Mark Sanchez, N.Y. Jets
Passing Yards: 2728
Rushing Yards: 26
Touchdowns: 18 (3 rushing)
Turnovers: 15 (2 fumbles)
Total Points: 189.72

Outlook: Separating fantasy from reality is the key for fantasy football success. In reality, Sanchez is a nice QB with a lot of potential, but fantasy wise, hes not a good play. Blame Rex Ryans defense for this. New Yorks defense is so good, itll keep them in most games. They wont have to stray away from their game plan, which will involve a heavy dose of their running game. Sanchez doesnt project for fantasy success because he simply wont have the opportunities to put up a lot of points.

29. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams
Passing Yards: 2989
Rushing Yards: 144
Touchdowns: 14 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 17 (3 fumbles)
Total Points: 183.96

Outlook: Im high on Bradford as a long-term player, but St. Louis is currently a mess offensively. There is no reason to expect Bradford to provide significant fantasy value this season.

30. Charlie Whitehurst, Seattle Seahawks
Passing Yards: 1678
Rushing Yards: 33
Touchdowns: 10 (1 rushing)
Turnovers: 10 (1 fumble)
Total Points: 110.42

Outlook: Seattle didnt swap second-round picks and give up a third with San Diego for a backup QB. Im projecting both Matt Hasselbeck and Whitehurst to get playing time in 2010, but unfortunately, neither will be able to sustain consistent production because of this. If youre lucky enough, avoid the Seattle QBs at all cost.

Scoring Key
6 points per touchdown
1 point per 25 passing yards
1 point per 10 rushing yards
-2 points per turnover