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Offline play2win  
#26 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 7:33:46 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: steveishere Go to Quoted Post
I'm all for moving back and getting more players that next year could have been 1st 2nd or 3rd round picks in later rounds this year. This draft is deep for those players. Now you don't move around just to do it obviously if there's a guy at 16 you think is some phenom that wont last to 21 then yeah maybe you go after him but there's a reason teams don't try and trade as many picks as they can to move up as much as they can. "Getting a better player" is nice in theory but usually not worth the cost in reality


It is pretty weird. This is super early to be speculating like this but from a fan perspective, man, I like 3 other Safeties better than the top two in all the mocks. Maybe it is worth trading back if one or two of the coveted players is taken before our #21.

Here is a trade projection that is kind of interesting:
http://www.gbnreport.com/tradeprojection.html

Trading 21 down to 30 with SF for an additional R3 at 77. That would give us 5 of the top 98 picks.
Offline nerdmann  
#27 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 8:00:16 AM(UTC)
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Ted should take BPA. Now our team is stocked, so BPA is also weighed agaist positions of need, so I would find it hard to believe that a QB would be available who would be better than any other player even in positions of need, and/or trading back.

If they find a guy who they really like and he's there, I could see it. Otherwise...
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Offline wpr  
#28 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 8:08:13 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: steveishere Go to Quoted Post
I'm all for moving back and getting more players that next year could have been 1st 2nd or 3rd round picks in later rounds this year. This draft is deep for those players. Now you don't move around just to do it obviously if there's a guy at 16 you think is some phenom that wont last to 21 then yeah maybe you go after him but there's a reason teams don't try and trade as many picks as they can to move up as much as they can. "Getting a better player" is nice in theory but usually not worth the cost in reality


that's ok. I don't mind it if we have different philosophies.

Trading back seems to bring in average players. Average starters who do not stand out in a crowd. You absolutely need them. A bunch of them to have a team.

But trading up tends to land the player of special qualities. One who stand out in a league of extra ordinary gentlemen. At least is it is done correctly he will. Someone like CM3 when he is healthy.

I am not saying to trade up merely for the sake of saying we traded up. The player and the need have to be there before it makes sense.

The GB roster is full of players who would make most teams. Players who could start for most teams. Trading down to grab a bunch more of them only means dropping players of similar abilities to keep the new ones. There is no real increase in overall value in that process. GB can certainly use some help in a few positions. But by trading back and accumulating extra picks there will not be a guarantee they will be able to fill all those positions when the draft slots roll around.
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Offline mi_keys  
#29 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 10:12:43 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: wpr Go to Quoted Post
that's ok. I don't mind it if we have different philosophies.

Trading back seems to bring in average players. Average starters who do not stand out in a crowd. You absolutely need them. A bunch of them to have a team.

But trading up tends to land the player of special qualities. One who stand out in a league of extra ordinary gentlemen. At least is it is done correctly he will. Someone like CM3 when he is healthy.

I am not saying to trade up merely for the sake of saying we traded up. The player and the need have to be there before it makes sense.

The GB roster is full of players who would make most teams. Players who could start for most teams. Trading down to grab a bunch more of them only means dropping players of similar abilities to keep the new ones. There is no real increase in overall value in that process. GB can certainly use some help in a few positions. But by trading back and accumulating extra picks there will not be a guarantee they will be able to fill all those positions when the draft slots roll around.


Philosophically, I feel there are many years in which what you say above probably holds true. But I believe in this case, those of us looking at potentiall trading back out of the 1st and into the 2nd (and then maybe even moving some later picks up into the 2nd or 3rd round) are thinking based on projections the 2nd round picks aren't that far off the expected value of the mid to high 1st round picks. If that's the case, we might have a better chance of drafting a couple players who end up having exceptional careers with three 2nd round picks and one 3rd round pick (my extreme hypothetical trade back and trade up scenario) than one 1st, one 2nd and two 3rds.

We've landed plenty of studs in recent years in the second round: Nick Collins, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb, Casey Hayward (at least stud rookie), Eddie Lacy and Daryn Colledge (if you're delusional like Zero). Maybe were all lemmings and just going off what the talking heads are saying, but there's a feeling this draft is deep. If we can't get exactly who we want in the 1st round, maybe those difference makers can come consolidating our picks in the 2nd round.

Maybe we've all been playing too much of that draft simulator.

Message modified by user Tuesday, April 15, 2014 10:31:45 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline steveishere  
#30 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 10:19:45 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: wpr Go to Quoted Post
that's ok. I don't mind it if we have different philosophies.

Trading back seems to bring in average players. Average starters who do not stand out in a crowd. You absolutely need them. A bunch of them to have a team.

But trading up tends to land the player of special qualities. One who stand out in a league of extra ordinary gentlemen. At least is it is done correctly he will. Someone like CM3 when he is healthy.

I am not saying to trade up merely for the sake of saying we traded up. The player and the need have to be there before it makes sense.

The GB roster is full of players who would make most teams. Players who could start for most teams. Trading down to grab a bunch more of them only means dropping players of similar abilities to keep the new ones. There is no real increase in overall value in that process. GB can certainly use some help in a few positions. But by trading back and accumulating extra picks there will not be a guarantee they will be able to fill all those positions when the draft slots roll around.


What is that based on? From what I've seen our trade backs have landed some pretty high quality players (Nelson, Lacy) neither of those guys are average. The philosophy of trading down isn't to get more average players it's done when there is an abundance of similar quality players at your draft position (all of those players could be good, it doesn't mean they are average). You get a player of a similar quality to one you could have gotten had you stayed put and add a higher chance to get a guy like Mike Daniels or something later on. Or if you have a player really high on your board that you think will last if you trade back and can still get that player.

In reference to this draft in particular it looks to me like there are a handful of exceptional players (10-15ish). Beyond that there are just a bunch of guys that don't really stand out but are still really good that will last down into 4th or 5th round (more than usual). Typically draft classes I think have had 50 or 60 underclassmen the last few years. This one has 98, that's a lot of talent in there who are guys that probably in the next year or 2 could have been 1st or 2nd round picks.

It's way too complex to simply boil it down to trade up = better players, trade back = more average players. It could just as easily become, trade up = fewer good players and trade down = more good players.

Message modified by user Tuesday, April 15, 2014 10:32:41 AM(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline wpr  
#31 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 11:53:49 AM(UTC)
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steve I will ignore the last 3 drafts as it is too soon. "Stand out" to me is pro bowl/all pro caliber. A starter is a starter = average. We have to have some way of defining that they are more than just a really good starter.
2010 Mike Neal
2009 no 2nd round pick. trade up for CM3
2008 Jordy Nelson, Brian Brohm & Patrick Lee
2007 Brandon Jackson
2006 Daryn Colledge & Greg Jennings
2005 Nick Collins & Terrence Murphy
2001 Robert Ferguson
2000 Chad Clifton
1999 Fred Vinson
1997 Darren Sharper
1996 Derrick Mayes
1992 Mark D'Onofrio
1991 Esera Tuaolo
1990 LeRoy Butler

I have to stop somewhere so I will end it on a positive note with Butler.

17 players in 21 years. Nelson, Jennings, Collins, Clifton and Butler were the only ones that really stood out and were above average. Oops almost forgot Sharper. Then again most of his acclaim came after he left GB but he still counts.

Half a star to Vinson for being the trade bait to get Ahmad Green but he did nothing worthy on his own. A half star for Colledge to help pay the rent for this board. Mrs C will appreciate it.

I only looked at the 3rd round very briefly. There are a few above average players there but there are more average to below average players taken in the 3rd.

So with 98 underclassmen coming out that means that the opportunity to pick a street FA after the draft is even better than in most years.

I do not scout the college players. I can not say that this year's draft is better or worse than another year. I can only speak in generalizations. Generally speaking it will be better to move up and land the guy who is a difference maker than it is to trade down and get 3 average quality ones. Now keep in mind I am saying the average ones are still starters don't think I am saying they are no good. What I am saying is GB already HAS starters. At least at most positions. Guys who will play 8-10 years. If we are going to move one of them out and put someone else in it has to be someone who is a better player.

And I agree the whole scope is complex. That is why somewhere back there I said it has to be for a stud and it has to be at a position of need. What I didn't say because I assumed it would be a given is who every Uncle Teddy pays the price to get would be worthy of the extra price GB would have to pay and not be another Jamal Reynolds or Justin Harrell. I don't even want him to be a B.J. Raji or Javon Walker.

edit- some how I missed Jordy. I must have skipped over the first name that year thinking it was a #1
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Offline dhazer  
#32 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 3:56:25 PM(UTC)
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Why is it we would have to trade the QB if we draft him? I remember a few years ago when a certain QB dropped and we drafted him even though it wasn't a huge need at the time and how did that work out?
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Offline wpr  
#33 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 4:21:29 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: dhazer Go to Quoted Post
Why is it we would have to trade the QB if we draft him? I remember a few years ago when a certain QB dropped and we drafted him even though it wasn't a huge need at the time and how did that work out?


Wrong. It was a BIG need. Typically teams/players don't do well when they draft and then start a QB immediately. It takes 3 years for a QB to learn.

Sir Brett was waffling for a few years by that point in time. GB did not know if he would play 1 more year or 3. The time was perfect an the need immediate.
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Offline play2win  
#34 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 4:58:51 PM(UTC)
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Well, here is a good link to reference regarding all of Ted's draft day trades, both up and down. The effectiveness of one over the other is certainly debatable.

http://www.packers.com/history/draft-history.html

Ted did well trading back in 2013, netting Lacy, Bakhtiari and Dorsey.

He did well in 2012 trading up for Hayward. Jury still out on trade up for Worthy.

He didn't fare so well trading back with DEN in 2011 getting DJ Williams and DJ Smith, as well as trading back with MIA netting Caleb Schlauderaff and Ryan Taylor.

Traded up with PHI in 2010 getting Morgan Burnett.

Traded up in 2009 with NE for Clay Matthews

Traded back in 2008 with NYJ landing Jordy Nelson. Also traded back with MIN getting Breno Giaccomini and Matt Flynn. Again traded back with STL to draft Brett Swain and with NO into 2009 to draft Jairus Wynn.

2007 traded back with NYJ for Brandon Jackson, Aaron Rouse and Korey Hall. Also traded back with PIT for Allen Barbre and Desmond Bishop

2006 traded back with NE and DEN landing Greg Jennings and Daryn Colledge and Jason Spitz. Back to PHI with Will Blackmon and Tyrone Culver. Back again with STL for Johnny Jolly

2006 back with CAR for Underwood and a pick that was traded back to PHI for Mike Hawkins and Curt Campbell. Again back with NE for Craig Bragg and Will Whitticker.


Pretty interesting when you look at the history of Ted's trades.
Offline luigis  
#35 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 5:33:18 PM(UTC)
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Can Geno Smith play safety? Yikes, I didn't know that.


I'm sure we have to stay put, unless it is better to trade up or down, then that would be better.
I hope Ted has the same conviction as I have about the correct course of action.

Luis
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Offline play2win  
#36 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 7:02:09 PM(UTC)
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luigis, I think Ted will get his Safety or Safeties. I do wonder how he has them rated, and if he might have another playmaker in mind he would want to move up or gauge down to hopefully draft.

We could easily stay at 21 and take the best player available. But, we do have a lot of picks that would allow us to maneuver.

BTW, I don't know for certain we have to stay put. We could get a great offer for that #21. Might be worthwhile if Ted has other players he thinks are of equal value.
Offline PackFanWithTwins  
#37 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 7:16:25 PM(UTC)
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Unless you are planning on Rodgers not playing for another 5 years, QB in the first is out of the question.

I wouldn't mind moving up for the right player, I also wouldn't mind trading the pick away and using the acquired picks to max out on 2nd and 3rd rounders. The team doesn't have room for high volume of picks, we need more quality instead.
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Offline wpr  
#38 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 7:48:09 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: PackFanWithTwins Go to Quoted Post
Unless you are planning on Rodgers not playing for another 5 years, QB in the first is out of the question.

I wouldn't mind moving up for the right player, I also wouldn't mind trading the pick away and using the acquired picks to max out on 2nd and 3rd rounders. The team doesn't have room for high volume of picks, we need more quality instead.


you said quality picks. that is more common when a team moves up.
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Offline PackFanWithTwins  
#39 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 7:53:57 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: wpr Go to Quoted Post
you said quality picks. that is more common when a team moves up.


That is where trading back, and using the additional picks to max out on 2nd and 3rd rounders fits in. That would require trading back up, after moving the 1st rounder.
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Offline sschind  
#40 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 9:01:32 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: luigis Go to Quoted Post
Can Geno Smith play safety? Yikes, I didn't know that.


I'm sure we have to stay put, unless it is better to trade up or down, then that would be better.
I hope Ted has the same conviction as I have about the correct course of action.



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Offline Yerko  
#41 Posted : Tuesday, April 15, 2014 9:56:51 PM(UTC)
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If Houston or Jacksonville are the trading partners, I would be all for trading down.

There's a good possibility that players like C.J. Mosley or Ryan Shazier are sitting there at the beginning of the 2nd.

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Offline luigis  
#42 Posted : Wednesday, April 16, 2014 4:26:29 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Yerko Go to Quoted Post
If Houston or Jacksonville are the trading partners, I would be all for trading down.

There's a good possibility that players like C.J. Mosley or Ryan Shazier are sitting there at the beginning of the 2nd.



If CJ Mosley is available in the 2nd round I'll eat my hat without mayo. Big Grin

Luis
Offline warhawk  
#43 Posted : Wednesday, April 16, 2014 6:55:39 AM(UTC)
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I don't see any reason to trade up with the 21st pick. There is plenty of very good football players that will be sitting there unlike other years when we drafted later and true 1st round talent was all but gone.

STAYING PUT: (3 Rounds)
We draft at #21, #53, 85, and, 98


MOVING UP:
Would have to mean losing pick #53.
So maybe we end up with say #16, 85, and, 98.

MOVING DOWN: To late round 1 or very early Round 2
Would give us at least two 2nd round picks and three 3rd round Picks. Ted could also then trade back up two of the third round picks to get back into round two.

I for one have no desire to move up and then watch all these good players go off the board and not pick again until late round 3. I don't see any player between say 15 and 20 THAT much better than the players that will be available at #21 or #31 for that matter worth doing this.
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Offline play2win  
#44 Posted : Wednesday, April 16, 2014 7:10:25 AM(UTC)
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Yeah, warhawk, I don't know who we would move up for either from the 21 spot. I just don't see it in R1.

What I could see is Ted possibly trying to get back into R1 by packaging a pick from next year with a bunch of other late rounders that he won't really need. That I would welcome in this draft, because we could add that extra impact player a year earlier into our system. I believe we need that kind of help right now. For example, adding a Pryor and Shazier, or a Nix and Mosley, etc while still maintaining control of our R2 and an R3 (comp). Or, as you say a trade up back into R2 could be a good option.

There are a handful of teams that will want more picks than the 5 or 6 they have in this draft.

Rarely do you see a pick and a player type of swap these days, but that could happen too.

I do believe Ted will be just fine holding firm with what he has though. You're right, 4 of the first 98 is not bad at all. Should be fun to see how he moves, if he does.
Offline texaspackerbacker  
#45 Posted : Wednesday, April 16, 2014 8:28:19 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
Well, here is a good link to reference regarding all of Ted's draft day trades, both up and down. The effectiveness of one over the other is certainly debatable.

http://www.packers.com/history/draft-history.html

Ted did well trading back in 2013, netting Lacy, Bakhtiari and Dorsey.

He did well in 2012 trading up for Hayward. Jury still out on trade up for Worthy.

He didn't fare so well trading back with DEN in 2011 getting DJ Williams and DJ Smith, as well as trading back with MIA netting Caleb Schlauderaff and Ryan Taylor.

Traded up with PHI in 2010 getting Morgan Burnett.

Traded up in 2009 with NE for Clay Matthews

Traded back in 2008 with NYJ landing Jordy Nelson. Also traded back with MIN getting Breno Giaccomini and Matt Flynn. Again traded back with STL to draft Brett Swain and with NO into 2009 to draft Jairus Wynn.

2007 traded back with NYJ for Brandon Jackson, Aaron Rouse and Korey Hall. Also traded back with PIT for Allen Barbre and Desmond Bishop

2006 traded back with NE and DEN landing Greg Jennings and Daryn Colledge and Jason Spitz. Back to PHI with Will Blackmon and Tyrone Culver. Back again with STL for Johnny Jolly

2006 back with CAR for Underwood and a pick that was traded back to PHI for Mike Hawkins and Curt Campbell. Again back with NE for Craig Bragg and Will Whitticker.


Pretty interesting when you look at the history of Ted's trades.


More than interesting. It's overwhelmingly in favor of trading up. About the only clear cut successes of trading down are Jordy Nelson and Lacy, and you have to compare them to what teams got in the first round or higher second. That is the missing half of the puzzle - when those trades were made, what did the other side get?

I still say in the circumstance the Packers are in now - needing a little bit more QUALITY instead of a lot more QUANTITY, it is slam dunk obvious to trade up - or else just leave well enough alone if no there is no clear reason to trade.
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Offline texaspackerbacker  
#46 Posted : Wednesday, April 16, 2014 8:36:17 AM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: PackFanWithTwins Go to Quoted Post
Unless you are planning on Rodgers not playing for another 5 years, QB in the first is out of the question.

I wouldn't mind moving up for the right player, I also wouldn't mind trading the pick away and using the acquired picks to max out on 2nd and 3rd rounders. The team doesn't have room for high volume of picks, we need more quality instead.


I was ready to applaud this after reading the first paragraph. Then I read the second, which I don't much agree with.

True, we had great success by surprisingly getting Aaron Rodgers when he fell so far, but Favre was a lot older and seemingly nearer to the end at that time. Even then, there was an angst-filled situation 5 years later when the Packers had to decide whether to pay a lot for an unproven young guy and let the old guy go OR not pay the fairly big money for the unproven 5 year clipboard holder. I'd rather get a top quality Safety now than go through that situation again - and I expect Rodgers to be around and good enough for way more than 5 years.
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Offline luigis  
#47 Posted : Wednesday, April 16, 2014 12:40:48 PM(UTC)
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Rodgers will probably joke about his retirement from 2019 to 2024.
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Offline play2win  
#48 Posted : Monday, April 21, 2014 2:58:25 PM(UTC)
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Now it looks like Bridgewater is dropping because of a poor pro day without gloves. This guy was deemed by McShay as the most Pro-ready QB in this draft. If he is still there, I'm not going to be shocked if Ted takes him.

Figure in true BPA, with him being one of the best at the most important positions on a team, I could see it. Considering best talent and value with your pick. I would be pissed, a little, but I could see it.

OK. Maybe more than a little...!

I bring it up because we still have 3 fucking weeks before this baby gets off the ground and I'm bored out of my skull. Do you pass?

I do, because I want to win now.
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Offline DoddPower  
#49 Posted : Monday, April 21, 2014 5:49:28 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: play2win Go to Quoted Post
Now it looks like Bridgewater is dropping because of a poor pro day without gloves. This guy was deemed by McShay as the most Pro-ready QB in this draft. If he is still there, I'm not going to be shocked if Ted takes him.

Figure in true BPA, with him being one of the best at the most important positions on a team, I could see it. Considering best talent and value with your pick. I would be pissed, a little, but I could see it.

OK. Maybe more than a little...!

I bring it up because we still have 3 fucking weeks before this baby gets off the ground and I'm bored out of my skull. Do you pass?

I do, because I want to win now.


If you really think he's the BPA, you try like hell to convince a trade partner of that. Otherwise, I think a team like the Packers has to pass for something else. Although if a general manager did make a pick like that, and he ended up turning into the next Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, it would be genius. The team could then trade their current starter or the young guy for a king's ransom. If that ransom was used well, it could help a team more than one really good player ever could for a long time. It would truly be a genius move, but I don't think Ted Thompson would have the balls for such a risk, and I don't blame him. It's just probably not worth it (unless it actually is). It would just be a HUGE risky investment, but sometimes those who risk big win big.
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play2win on 4/21/2014(UTC)
Offline wpr  
#50 Posted : Monday, April 21, 2014 6:33:35 PM(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: DoddPower Go to Quoted Post
If you really think he's the BPA, you try like hell to convince a trade partner of that. Otherwise, I think a team like the Packers has to pass for something else. Although if a general manager did make a pick like that, and he ended up turning into the next Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, it would be genius. The team could then trade their current starter or the young guy for a king's ransom. If that ransom was used well, it could help a team more than one really good player ever could for a long time. It would truly be a genius move, but I don't think Ted Thompson would have the balls for such a risk, and I don't blame him. It's just probably not worth it (unless it actually is). It would just be a HUGE risky investment, but sometimes those who risk big win big.


Not to be argumentative, who was a draft a trade that worked out well for the team that selected and traded the player? Elway was the last one I can think of that was a great player who got drafted and subsequently traded but that was because he pouted and would not play for the Colts. The Colts got a Pro Bowl OL out of it but not a HoFer.
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